Some of you don't think the BP shut down is much of a disaster " but let me remind you that we never did get the post-Katrina story straight. There was so much spin in the media, it was months later that we discovered that the Talking Heads were sucking and blowing on their own agenda.

Hopefully that doesn't happen here. For those who have the time to monitor these discussions, a reader sent me a link to a well done website that is all about oil:

He also had a few remarks about the general oil situation, as follows:

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Bill -- some one posted yesterday, I believe, that the shut down of BP at Prudhoe Bay was not 'the disaster the media is making it out to be'. The fact is this is a very serious turn. It is 8% of US production and there are questions now about the entire North Slope (which would be another 8%) actually watering out. (link to story) And this one was unexpected.

Add in (or take out) not only the shut-ins in Nigeria (another 400,000 b/d), and really major political risk in Venezuela, Iran (21 million bbls a day run through the strait of Hormuz -- close to 25% of global production), ...; but now KNOWN declines in Cantarell (which may be collapsing), and admissions that Burgan has peaked (link to story) -- the North Sea, as you know peaked in 1999..., and we're getting into some serious (stuff) here. And I haven't even mentioned frightening anecdotes coming out of Ghawar (and I'm not talking about Matt Simmons). The 1-2 mmb/d 'spare' that the Saudi's claim to have is essentially worthless, since it is very sour and heavy and we don't have the refining capacity for it -- which is why it's 'spare' (not because there's 'plenty of oil around', as the Saudi's claim...). Moreover, recent history shows us (2001) that oil demand does not fall during a normal recession -- the growth merely slows -- and that's BEFORE fully accounting for chindia....

Interesting times...."

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From my reading the reports of noted Wall Street analysts, I have been forecasting $55-$65 oil. However, not being an oil analyst, that's just a comfort level of mine, which I put out for discussion.

Do I believe the world could see $100 a bbl? Sure, I have an open mind -- but I also recall the latter part of the 1970's when oil prices soared. Then they also dropped with a hard landing and had a multi-year period of very low prices.

And during the relatively brief period when oil prices had skyrocketed, there were quite a few gnomes around who rang the cash register big time.

With America struggling on many fronts today, there are new gnomes around who would want to exacerbate the situation. Like the others back in the 1970's, these people are looking to get while the getting's good.

So, I'm on my guard because " just maybe -- $75-80 crude oil is not sustainable for long.