Bill, (others are welcome)

Since you are actively blogging today, I have tutorial question.

Let me set it up... Today, I went long Sandisk (SNDK) after monitoring the stock for several weeks following an accumulation/distribution zone commentary you published at the time.
My reasons are: Technically - The stock is trending up, (momentum) technical RSI > 50 (momentum) Stock is walking the upper Bollinger Band (momentum). Fundamentally – lots of dynamic news are swirling around the stock (new 1 gigabyte flash drives, Dell exiting the MP3 player business, SNDK entering the MP3 player business, Apple recalling of some Sony batteries may impact Ipod sales etc.,); upgrade of SanDisk to "buy" from "above average"; stock currently trading at the median of it 52-week range; excellent EPS prospects; holiday shopping looming and Sandisk products are considered “cute� and priced reasonably.

My questions (you may have written on this already and please ignore all my momentum mumbo jumbo) we know you only monitor ~100 stocks (SNDK included); however, have there been instances where you revisited the accumulation/distribution zone of a particular stock following a significant move? Or do you wait, however long, for the stock to return to your established mean (accumulation/distribution zone)?

BTW …this trade is executed with “wants� funds as opposed to “needs� funds. If I'm right, I want to go to South Florida (Miami, South Beach) for the Holidays, if I'm wrong I may need to recuperate in Myrtle Beach SC.

Thanks

Oratier, Most hold high regard for SNDK and I am among them. However, very little time or volume was consumed near the $80 high so your comment that the current price is near the mean "means" little to me. IMHO this is no time to be thinking that you lost an opportunity to buy in the $40 range a few weeks ago. At current prices I would not even consider averaging up with additional purchases. I, for one, will not forget the shocking price drop about 2 years ago when SNDK quarterly results disappointed the market, nor the similar occurance last November when the big story was over-capacity and falling prices ( didn't happen ). If the collapsing real estate sector portends a dismal economic outlook I see little Joey getting a frisbee or a lump of coal this Christmas - not the MP3 player or digital camera he was planning on. I would be very suprised if Mr. Cara raised his accumulation zone into the 50's anytime soon.

Re:
"However, very little time or volume was consumed near the $80 high so your comment that the current price is near the mean "means" little to me."

Fair point. So it take it you wouldn't be long at this point? And I never average down (learn this the hard way) and 2.5 points trailing stops are in place if I'm incorrect.

Thanks

SNDK-

I suppose I am more a buy the weakness guy right now as I am not particularly positive on the broad market. As tech has become popular in the last few weeks (Rydex) I have been a seller into strength. D/W/M RSI? 82!/60/54... not attractive to me as that long term chart looks to be headed down while the short term is headed right up into resistance. A break above that intermediate downtrend line (where we are right now) on volume would have to be considered a positive. However what we have right now looks like a downward price channel and we are currently at the top end of that channel.

FWIW- On scale of 1-100 (1 low, 100 high) SNDK scores 17 on Insider Score.

No position. JMHObservations

Re: "However what we have right now looks like a downward price channel and we are currently at the top end of that channel.

FWIW- On scale of 1-100 (1 low, 100 high) SNDK scores 17 on Insider Score.

No position. JMHObservations"

It's a real learning experience reading/studying what others think about trading and the methodology use in their thought process. I shall always remain never too old to learn or change my mind.

Thanks Again

I used these slow days to review my strategies.

SNDK is a great company, but the daily RSI was in the 80's, which I thought would be a red light for anyone trying to buy.

Changing topic, several fund managers interviewed by RobTV in the last 2 days have said they are selling. Even our TV friend JC was advising to sell broadly. Since the markets are not really falling too much, who is buying?

JC is a great contrarian indicator. If he says sell you better be buying. Wasn't he saying "buy" and "back up the truck" while the markets were falling in May and June ? Now in the last couple of weeks JC changes his tune and the markets start rallying. Funny stuff.
On another note, the Nasdaq seems to be consolidating here and seems ready to make another move up towards 50% Fibonacci retracement at 2196 ( using the May high and July low) . Does anyone else envision this scenario ?

TheAdonis...

Who's JC?

and you know in the back of my mind I still have this feeling NASDAQ is going to pop one step higher - to suck everyone in...

There was all this pessimism this week but the market hasn't fallen much...

A throwover on Mon/Tues and talk of reaching new highs in S&P?
Or maybe something in the Fed minutes on Tues to pump it up for an end of the month dump?

This would be the ultimate set up - would it not? It would be the least expected.
And if the throwover fails - a perfect short selling point.

SNDK - "Sold to you at $54!"

It's in the distribution zone, not accumulation zone.

I have used the 50/50 (over 50 RSI / over 50 dma) momentum trading strategy, but only in firmly uptrending markets (not now IMO). It works great in that environment. Also, by definition, it is not an "accumulation zone" buy.

Let's check back on this trade, I am guessing that you will be buying me a drink in Myrtle Beach ;-)

(actually, I wish you good luck on this trade!)

TheAdonis: I totally agree, however, two of his last 2 Internet videos made sense. Maybe he is doing it just to confuse us now.

Tradesman: JC = Cramer, the mad $ guy. I actually watched this program for the first time this week, you need to be near a toilet.

What a difference with RobTV.

Re: "actually, I wish you good luck on this trade!"

Thanks,

I've put my trading strategy online for all to see. If I'm incorrect, the market (AKA the house) gains 2.5 points including commission. If I'm speculatively right, anything above the 30-year bond yield will satisfy me.

BTW...I feel compelled to apolozize for the abundance of typos in my comments. I try to stay active by walking and staying outdoors and my new Blackberry (7130e) qwerty keyboard takes getting used to. When will those software engineers deliver a reliable AI spell checker and thesaurus? I've waited years for one.

Have a great weekend!

Bill - Thanks again for a another stimulating week.