Bill

First, thanks again for the time, effort and level of caring you have for us all!! I learn something new everyday from reading your site, and I feel like it is part of the "missing link" in my attempting to learn about the market that I've done from personal study and trial-and-error trading.

I have a question regarding the "tensions" between fundamental analysis and technical analysis, particularly as it applies to GLD right now.

The technical appearance of GLD looks a little menancing to me. On the monthly view, there looks like there was a peak in May, complete with high volume, high stochastics that are now headed down (on a short, medium, and longer term basis) and a MACD that has not generated a signal yet, but is close to rolling over to the downward side.

On the weekly, again there looks like there was a peak in late April again with high volume. THe stochastics are messy, but still look to have rolled over from April/May, and unlike the monthly the MACD (short, medium, and longterm) are all in the sell range, and have been for a few months. There's also a negative divergence on the MACD line and MACD histogram, for the lows in may-to-june bottom--this seems to be continuing. Finally, the weekly looks like weak support levels may be found at $60 with stronger support found at $55-56. Volume seems to support this reasoning, as does the 50 wk moving average.

The technicals on the daily are not particularly compeling to me, but don't look terrific at this moment of time. Today, GLD ended margininally below the 50 day moving average.

Sorry for the long winded way around of asking this, but how do you weigh this kind of picture with the unfolding fundamental story? I know most traders consider both technical and fundamental information in making their decisions---but I am not sure what is the best way to "weight" the technical data at this point of GLD's movement.

Thanks again!!

Wallace

Bill,
A wonderful, sage essay, as good a piece of from-the-heart writing as one will see on any blog anywhere, not to mention lit journals. Having seen one or two of your broader picture pieces, such as those on your parents, I wonder when time permits if you shouldn't expand your writing from markets to life in general. And if you feel like preaching, well go ahead and preach.

Posts like this are why I read this blog.

a doozy. nice one

Bill,
I would also thank for this great site. Every day I check your comments and try to get deeper into this sight.
I would like to inform you, it seems that Invesertech has problems with the splits, so some charts are confusing. Maybe it would be better to try anothar service?
http://www.investertech.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=INFY&wt=2

Great Blog. It has become a staple of my surfing time.

Bill, terrific insight--thank you. I'm always intrigued by the characterization of smart money v. dumb money. My observations about the market are certainly nothing but those of an amateur. Nevertheless, I marvel at market moves in directions opposite that of what "common sense" would dictate (as you and other have opined recently)and the whipsaw moves in stocks that are recently upgraded or downgraded. For stocks that I follow and research, I note that the upgrades/downgrades tend to be "yesterday's news", as the stock has either enriched or fleeced the shareholders prior to the confident statements made by analysts. With the huge increase in volumes on such moves, it cannot be solely the retail investor but to a large extent traditionally regarded "smart" money chasing such recommendations. If the money were truly smart, it would have already would have been parked (or exited with tires squealing!). I think that the pejorative classifications of "smart money" and "dumb money" should morph into "inside" money and "outside" money.

Bill, Goldman Sachs just issued a Sell recommendation on Dell.
EJ

Bill wrote:

>About where market prices are headed, please
>don't think I'm preaching – I don't have God's >wisdom.

It's been quite a time that I wanted to emphasize the parralel between you and
Joachim of Fiore (the great Italian abbot)
http://www.centrostudigioachimiti.it/Centrostudi/CS_Chieng.asp
Look at the picture (above) and tell me if this is not Bill (below):
http://www.billcara.com/about/

Am I kidding?

Then read below about the HOLY SPIRIT to whom de Fiore devoted his life and work:

Corinthians

12:3
Wherefore I give you to understand, that no man speaking by the Spirit of God calleth Jesus accursed: and that no man can say that Jesus is the Lord, but by the Holy Ghost.

12:4
Now there are diversities of gifts, but the same Spirit.

12:5
And there are differences of administrations, but the same Lord.

12:6
And there are diversities of operations, but it is the same God which worketh all in all.

12:7
But the manifestation of the Spirit is given to every man to profit withal.

12:8
For to one is given by the Spirit the word of wisdom; to another the word of knowledge by the same Spirit;

12:9
To another faith by the same Spirit; to another the gifts of healing by the same Spirit;

12:10
To another the working of miracles; to another prophecy; to another discerning of spirits; to another divers kinds of tongues; to another the interpretation of tongues:

12:11
But all these worketh that one and the selfsame Spirit, dividing to every man severally as he will.

--------------------------------------------

Romans

12:6
Having then gifts differing according to the grace that is given to us, whether prophecy, let us prophesy according to the proportion of faith;

I agree with Bill. If this is a bear market(and economic fundamentals certainly support that conclusion as pointed out by Bill over the past few months) then it has only lasted 3 months or so, well short of the median duration of around a year. So even though the chart "seems" bullish, and the bulls may appear to be winning for now, it's best to stay cautious and not get sucked onto the bull side by too much.