Bill,

I have extensive technical knowledge of computers, databases, servers, and coding. I would be willing to volunteer my services where ever they'd be best used.

-Quentusrex

I think today's tape can be summarized easily - dumb money buys, smart money sells. Bill predicted it this morning, so none of us are surprised....correct?

Bill,

I would be curious to see the tabulated results of the survey. If you didn't mind, can you make a post of the results someday?

Yesterday I picked up 200 shares of TLT. I've been waiting patiently to pick some up. I've been all cash except for some DIA/SPY DEC puts. I've been hearing the siren call for bonds for sometime, but I didn't see enough data to feel like I've minimized my interest risk exposure until the last few days. I'm 50/50 on the Fed increasing. I feel like the slowdown will increase beyond what is expected due to the consumer who I believe is not just treading water but gurgling. I'm just an average investor, so I don't posit my opinion as anything but that--an opinion. I think that one of the most difficult things for individual investors is sorting out and weighting all the divergent opinions about what will happen in the market. Having sites like this, where Bill and his contributors are generous with their commentary is a tool in the toolbox. I feel like it helps me make more informed choices.
Bill, this is such a terrific site. How nice to see capital markets and social equity used in the same sentence!

Thanks Bill for all your efforts...truly fantastic - teach a man to fish and you feed him for life - please continue to serve all. The silent masses are with you.

Bill, I am wondering if the 'bullion producers' in your post refer to (or include) the producers/miners of precious metals? Since it is a critical point of the market,I want to make it clear to myself.
I just completed the survey. Thank you very much for your wonderful job.

"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRKa.N: Quote, Profile, Research)(BRKb.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Friday said second-quarter profit rose 62 percent, helped by higher insurance premiums and investment income.

Net income for the Omaha, Nebraska-based insurance and investment company rose to $2.35 billion, or $1,522 per share, from $1.45 billion, or $941, a year earlier.

Excluding $294 million of net investment gains, profit totaled about $1,331 per share. On that basis, analysts polled by Reuters Estimates on average forecast $1,259.

Revenue rose 33 percent to $24.19 billion.

In insurance, the biggest contributor to results, revenue rose 14 percent to $19.86 billion.

Auto insurer Geico Corp. posted a 10 percent increase in earned premiums, while reinsurer General Re Corp. posted a 8 percent decline, hurt by North American cancellations and a "significant" decrease in its finite risk business.

Interest, dividend and other investment income, meanwhile, rose 32 percent to $1.12 billion, Berkshire said, as interest rates rose.

Berkshire slashed its stake in foreign currency contracts to $1.2 billion from $5.4 billion on March 31 and $13.8 billion at year end.

The reduced stake resulted in a $87 million gain, as the U.S. Dollar Index , which measures the greenback's value against six currencies, fell 5 percent. Berkshire might have posted a higher gain had it not reduced the currency bet.

Berkshire's cash position fell to $42.07 billion from $42.86 billion in the first quarter and $45.02 billion at year end.

Berkshire Class A shares closed Friday up $410 at $91,710 on the New York Stock Exchange. They have risen 3.5 percent this year. The S&P 500 has risen 2.5 percent, and the S&P Insurance Index has fallen 5.1 percent.

© Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved."

If you are a long term investor, for every $3000.00 you accumulate, buy a class B share of the above insurance company.

For some strange reason, normally intelligent folks love to wager insurance companies that they will die prematurely, and insurance companies love to cover the bet - certifying that the insured won't die. In fact the insurance companies are betting (and winning) that these normally intelligent folks will enjoy a long healthy life to make certain only the interest earned on the premiums they pay will be returned to any beneficaries.

Money invested in Berkshire Hathaway B shares two and a half years ago has risen 1% = dead money !

There was a point... 4Q 1999- 1Q 2000 when Buffet was discussed as having 'missed the boat' as he was of the old school and didn't understand technology. It didn't matter that he had a rather good track record practicing old school methodology longer term he was... just old. THAT was a good time to buy BRK.

Is there a similar situation today with Bill Miller? If so, there is a play there- in a rather over sold stock.

BRK-B is only a hedge in a bear market. That's all. Otherwise it is dead money. No new ideas. Buffett tries to preserve the principal, which is reasonable. He himself mentioned in one of his letters to the shareholders that the average investor is probably better off buying a cheap index fund.

RE: "Money invested in Berkshire Hathaway B shares two and a half years ago has risen 1% = dead money" !

Dead money as compared to what? live money? For this discussion, let employe those trading Chimpanzees (can't recall the website) that is consistently beating the Mad Money Cramer folks and have them throw darts at a stock pickers' select bulletin board and we probably would draw the same conclusion - dead money! However in the long term they appear beat the live money crowd everytime!

The reason common investors took a shellacking during the 2000 technology sector meltdown was precisely because they followed the so-called "live money" and group thinkers all the way to the bottom of the cycle. And they are setting themselves up for another fleecing once this Market rebound as it surely shall. The group will attached themselves to the next hot sector and follow that crowd into disater. Sticking with dead money issues (capital preservation, conservative investments) is not unsound during side-trending markets. At the close of the trading day those investors/traders may be the only one capable of enjoying a good night's sleep.

Re: "BRK-B is only a hedge in a bear market. That's all. Otherwise it is dead money. No new ideas. Buffett tries to preserve the principal, which is reasonable. He himself mentioned in one of his letters to the shareholders that the average investor is probably better off buying a cheap index fund."

Good points...however, there is that dead money talk again. History has spoken and said: we don't need "new ideas" to make money. Just dress any idea in a new suit made of material call "common sense" and step out into the brave new world.

Tinman:
Didn't Buffet acknowledge at his annual shareholders meeting in the spring that he was now out of his massive silver trade and by his own admission maybe a little too early. He lost money on a currency bet against the dollar a year ago and said he will now buy good foreign companies in lieu of playing currencies. To do so, means to me that he expects a more gradual decline in the dollar, nothing apocalyptic. Frankly, the minimal decline in the dollar on Friday was not shocking to me anymore, just disgusting. It looks like foreign nations want to prop up the dollar to sell us more crap. And as I said about 3 weeks ago, watching the tape, not the macroeconomics which are horrific, the housing stocks looked like they were bottoming. But if so and if housing has the soft landing and the 5% annual increases that Bernanke is hoping for, it means an increase in the trade deficit, increase in the current account deficit, an increase in the negative individual and national savings rate. It means that the "global economy" continues and expedites a thriving business for the "global" banking gnomes. Bill has said he was going to write more on this matter in the future.

I use my one class B share of Berkshire for a few things that are more valuable than cash to me:

As motivational inspiration.
To remind me of the philosophies of value investing and the successes of Mr. Buffett & Mr. Munger.
To get me a printed copy of the Annual report.
To get me into the Annual meeting in Omaha some year when I can convince my spouse to go with me.

Of course, if I was looking at this as an investment, I would have probably ignored it as too expensive and bought tickets to the AGM on Ebay instead & printed out the PDF reports.

Trading in 1 share of a company doesn't make a whole lot of sense from an investment perspective. Since Warren doesn't believe in splits, dividends, or buybacks, you're not going to see a lot of action there. And what happens when investors get the jitters about transferring ownership of the company?

However, I hear that the 'intrinsic value' Warren always likes to speak about is actually equal to the stock price of Berkshire right now. This article tries to make a point that when you're buying Berkshire right now, you're really getting it for free. :) Someone tell me how that makes any sense.... I guess what they mean is you won't lose anything on this, and you'll probably get back your commission in under a year if you buy 1 share.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/BuyTheStockBuffettsGivingAway.aspx

Guess I'm off to buy another share for free...

Wavesmash:
Most stocks are trading for much less than 50% of book value right now and have been for years, something I've always thought was strange, so if Bershire shares consist of companies close to book, a Benjamin Graham principle that Buffet follows, that means it has great intrinsic value,i.e., the breakup value is much greater than Berkshire's share price, maybe free.