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July 19, 2006

Yahoo earnings call deemed ‘uninspiring', Wed., July 19, 2006, 9:09 AM

The UBS research department claims that the Yahoo earnings call was uninspiring. They also suggested that traders wait for the Google report before trying to guess what's going on in the industry. Download UBS July 19 report on YHOO.

As I say, I think it's mostly a case of the law of big numbers. It is not too difficult an exercise to double sales off a minimal base, but try doing that through six or seven iterations.

In fact, Jennifer Wells, writing for the Toronto Star today, has a well written column on the mass market economy and how the new paradigm involves "a million niches". Variety, it seems, is more than the spice of life. Infinite choice is now the standard.

But isn't that what the many-to-many network modelled Internet has given us?

Yes, media is now digital or it is failing. One-to-many systems like newspapers and television are failing.

But, as I pointed out earlier today, the competition is starting to catch on to the game, and they are responding. Variety is what people want, and the Internet offers it.

It's our journey (entertainment, information, education, trading, or whatever) and firms like Google and Yahoo are the roadmaps.

Early on, the online advertising business model was a simple one. Then click fraud interfered. Today, branded content seems to be the way to go. Tomorrow, who knows?

But at the end of the day the People will get what they want. Clearly the Internet is the delivery vehicle, which means that, above all else, it must be kept free and open.

On that score, Google and Yahoo are on the same page.


Yahoo! Inc. [GICS 45, Cara 100]
(YHOO: Yahoo Finance file)
(YHOO: StockChart chart)
(YHOO: Investertech chart)
(YHOO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(YHOO: ADVFN Financial Data)

Google [GICS 45, Cara 100]
(GOOG: Yahoo Finance file)
(GOOG: StockChart chart)
(GOOG: Investertech chart)
(GOOG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GOOG: ADVFN Financial Data)


Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 19, 2006 09:09:10 AM | Category: 45 Info Technology , Cara Global 100 Best Companies

Discourse

Very odd how S&P500, Nasdaq100, and Dow futures are jumping so fast right before Bernanke speaks at 10am Eastern time.

I thought 0.3% core CPI was supposed to be bad. Probability of another 25bp hike to 5.5% at next Fed meeting is 90-95% now.

Some earnings (JPM, IBM, not YHOO) are helping, as are technicals, I guess.

Posted by: tc [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 19, 2006 10:03 AM [link]

Thinks that's weird? Look at the home builders. To a man, up big this morning despite an absolutely gruesome report from Ryland (RYL).

Posted by: number2son [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 19, 2006 10:15 AM [link]

Just checked the currencies at ADVFN--all of a sudden the Euro, Yen, Pound shot up.

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex&cb=1110125106

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 19, 2006 10:19 AM [link]

Ah... it was his a released written commentary. I didn't know about that (my mistake)... I just thought he was going to make a talk.

He made some dovish comments, but over-all I don't think it was that dovish. Dovish enough and not nearly as bad as some expected. Those pro traders react really quickly... Like they just turned on the buy programs right after hearing the dovish comments before even finishing reading Bernanke's statement.

The dollar completely reversed and crashed about 100 points/pips as a result.

Gold tacked on another $10 after already being up $10 off its overnight bottom.

August fed funds futures jacked up to 95% but came right back to 70% probability of a hike.

Equities were primed for a relief rally, but I think they should decline again later this week or next and break their prior support levels (Dow 10700, S&P500 1220-30, etc.)

Posted by: tc [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 19, 2006 10:31 AM [link]

To Numbertucson:
Negative real interest rates in the US are a positive for all tangibles including homebuiders. Also, worldwide negative interest rates in Japan, Europe, China, et al plus mercantilism support the dollar and the carry trade. To collapse homeprices to stop inflation would cost the US government a pretty penny vis a vis propping up Fannie and Freddie and loss of revenues from a recession - things that should keep Bernanke up at night.

Posted by: alan [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 19, 2006 10:42 AM [link]

as mr. cara pointed out yesterday, the rubber band on the market finally got stretched yesterday afternoon to the point where it had to rally. at moments like this, the market will rally regardless of headlines. they don't matter.

the tricky thing here is to discern how far this rally will go (price) and how long it will last (time).

i would suggest that this move higher may be different from the first run down which culminated in the 13-14 june lows. traders and institutions will now see a double bottom from very oversold conditions. they will also see what can be construed as an extremely positive r.s.i divergence on the major indices. this divergence means that we retested our support areas but we were not as weak as we were the first time. while i am very respectful of some of the really negative things going on in the world, i am going to do my best to let my longs run here until we get to more overbought levels

remember what robert prechter used to say - all rallies begin with short covering.

GLG turning up nicely here.

Posted by: mtzion [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 19, 2006 10:49 AM [link]