That's to be expected from people with a fixed mind-set; but there may be something going on here that was last experienced in the 1970's, which is an equity market that is cycling through a Bear, one sector at a time.

Hence the Bull and Bear side may both rightfully claim victory in characterizing the trend of the equity market today. Therein lies the key to what I'm going to write about today.

As you know, markets are a challenge at the best of times. Well, these are, in the words of a Chinese expression, "interesting" times.

My biggest fear in writing this blog is that I unwittingly mislead anybody. Even though it is a free blog, I see a duty in trying to do the right thing. What I can do, and what I think is widely appreciated, is give you an unbiased perspective as to what I think is happening in capital markets today.

Maybe I'm right; maybe I'm wrong " that's the nature of the market. But, at least I stick my neck out in terms of giving opinions that are mine, and not reiterations of the views of others, many of whom have no track record to speak of.

Before I suffer too much criticism, let me point out something that I'll bet nobody else did for you this week. You are going to focus on the U.S. broad market indexes and say that I missed the turn, yada yada. But the U.S. market indexes were up +3.5 pct on average this week.

If you go back to last week's WIR, you will see that I gave you a clear cut buy recommendation (for a short-term trade) on specific high-tech stocks in the Cara 100. Here's what I wrote and the table below that is "proof of concept":

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"Right now in the tech group, I think the stocks of good quality U.S.-based companies (CSCO, SNDK, YHOO, DELL, QCOM, EBAY, LLTC, MXIM, and GOOG) are well oversold and ready to rally -- briefly at least; Other stocks in this over-sold group (but with a few more bids in the past week) include RIMM, ADBE, INTC, ADSK, CTSH, and GRMN. I also have in the Cara 100, two stocks that are presently under accumulation " one (ATI Tech: ATYT) for the rumor that AMD is going to make a bid to buy the company, and one (Oracle: ORCL) for goodness knows why. I'm getting leery the way Cara 100 company Oracle (ORCL) is trading though; I have two other tech companies " both in emerging markets " in the Cara 100, and both have been hammered in price recently: Infosys Technologies (INFY) of India and NetEase.com (NTES) of China (both of which I strongly recommended, along with Micron Technologies MU).

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These stocks, for the most part, enjoyed a terrific week.

If you include the current week's average gain (all 19 stocks) of +6.8 pct, while the average losses over 4-Weeks and YTD for the 17 (excluding MU because it was a separate recommendation that I forgot to put in the full table and ATYT because I said that it was rumored to be acquired, and it was by AMD on Monday) were -12.0 pct and -14.1 pct for this group.

The point being that I took a dreadful group and, in advance, picked the week of a turnaround.

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Now what did I write on Wednesday morning in a headline article recommending to buy the silver stocks? Yes, I said "Buy".

I'll show below the table on silver stocks I publish in WIR, and I guarantee that with these Silver stocks from mid-day Wednesday and the Tech stocks, which are the only recommendations I made a week ago, that there is nobody on this planet who has more to brag about.

My Silver stocks were up well over +12 pct in half a week, and the precious metals group was even let down on Friday by a disappointing report from Newmont (NEM).

So enough already with the negative comments to the blog. If you want me to challenge each and every critic, I won't. I don't have the time.

But, I'd recommend you find yourself some blog publishing software and do your own.

Why do I approach the blog this way? If you are going to learn through experience " as I did " you have to take an academic approach: hypothesis (or opinion) followed by event followed by critical analysis followed by adjustment of your approach. When you have done that for many years, you start to figure out some things. I've been doing it for 40 years, and I know that some of the negative comments I get are from people who think they can learn it all in a few months, part-time, under no pressure from clients and so forth.

I know that many of my readers are professionals, but many of you are also fairly new at trading, so I try to cover it all for all types. Trust me, it's not easy; I could write this report in 20-pct the time and space for a strictly professional audience, and I know they'd pay me to do it, but this work is my contribution to anybody who wants to take the time to learn stuff that is not taught at school or in a school most of you attended.

Btw, before I move on, take a look at the silver bullion this week (up +4.54 pct) versus the gold bullion (up +1.87 pct). I have explained at various times that when the precious metals complex is in a bullish phase it's most likely that gold under-performs silver, and so forth. The point is that I give you my perspective, and tell you why and what to look out for. Then in the cases where it doesn't work out I tell you that it's time to analyze why.

Now we all know that if you are going to buy silver stocks, you are going to do the same for gold " as I also wrote in last week's WIR. Look at Table 12 (senior gold equities I follow). Yes, they had a great week, with more to come.

But let's return to my thesis that these are particularly challenging markets to try to figure out " for the smartest of professionals too. We are all in the same boat.

Let's start with the 1970's and go to the long-term Dow 30 index chart offered kindly by Value Line. This illustration has small print, but the link brings up the actal chart which can be zoomed.

The 1970's saw the 1973 pull-out of troops from Vietnam and the termination of that War in 1975. The 60's and early 70's was a period of high government spending for the U.S., not unlike what has happened since 2001, in respect to the war effort. What followed in the mid-70's was a time in America, due to that excessive money printing, where inflation was starting to rise, followed by tightening Fed monetary policy.

Given a similar type of scenario today, let's re-examine the Dow 30 during that earlier time, so we can try to figure out what is likely to happen today.

Following the huge Bear market that extended through 1973 and 1974, which took the Dow down over -40 pct from 1Q73 highs, there was a major rally in 1975 of some +67 pct that took the Dow 30 back almost to the prior cycle high.

As a comparison, the 2000-2002 Bear market, dropped prices roughly -40 pct, and the subsequent Bull has moved them back roughly +50 pct from Oct 2002 to the present time, again not quite to former highs. So this cycle has not been as extreme as 1973-1976, which is understandable due to today's risk management systems, diversification opportunities, computer algorithms in trading programs, and so forth.

Yes, I am a believer in Fibonacci number sequences. I'm just not a proponent of Elliott Wave practice as a be-all and end-all. I have sat 15-feet from Bob Prechter, the EW guru, in 1987 and listened to him tell a large audience that there would be a second dip to the Black Monday crash. I laughed. I was already back long the market.

My only complaint with EW Theory is that the practitioners are part of a marketing network, and they take their technical analysis work too seriously " seriously enough to keep re-drawing their start points. I don't have time for people who like to rewrite history. You lose " accept it, and move on.

Today the world is awash in disinformation. It's like computer spam. The stuff is ubiquitous.

If in fact there was less disinformation, rather than a lot more, than what occurred in the 1970's and early 80's, I think the tools traders use today would effectively cut the magnitude of the bull/bear phases even more than they have been.

But today, there is so much pressure on Administrations, corporations, individuals to succeed at their goals and objectives, I find that no matter how many tools we have to support our trading decisions, the amount of crapola in the marketplace has just made trading an extreme challenge.

Wouldn't it be so much easier if the FOMC traders of the Fed would let us know in advance what they are going to do in terms of meeting their policies of stabilizing markets? Wouldn't it be so much easier if a standard corporate reporting form for quarterly or even monthly reporting and guidance was used?

Why do traders have to play a guessing game? That just leads to deceptive practices the same as any child's game where one player tries to fool the others, and so forth.

But is trading the capital market a game? Really? I don't think so. I think it is one of the most important jobs we have, and the skill sets learned by a good trader are powerful self-enabling tools. I take it deadly seriously.

I wish everyone did.

But we have representatives to government who care more about getting re-elected than they do in telling us the whole truth. We have corporate officers and directors who frequently say one thing and then do another. We have media that is paid to write and publicize stories that are loose with the facts, let's say.

Still, all we can do is to look at history and judge our actions accordingly.

We know what happened after Vietnam, and we know, despite the protestations of vested interest groups, the same thing is going to happen again with this War Against Terrorism. So we look to graphic examples, like the price charts.

Looking at the Value Line long-term Dow 30 chart again from 1976 through 1980, where prices side-tracked, there was rising inflation, and lowering PE multiples. The Bull and Bear cycles were not as well defined. The oil price shock (similar to today) was basically over by 1978, and the base and precious metals were rallying right up to the final price spike in 1980.

In 1981, the strict monetary policy of international central banks that was needed to arrest inflation, also deeply affected the economy and the equity market. Therein followed an extreme Bear market from late 2Q81 through into August 2002 in the U.S. (and into May-June 2002 in Canada).

Following that, equity prices rallied strongly from mid-1982 through into 2000, with the exception of a one-quarter crash in 3Q87, a 2H90 pull-back, a Q2 & 3 1994 pullback and a 2H98 pull-back. These pull-backs were considered Bear markets at the time, but interestingly from 1982 until 2000, there are Wall Street Talking Heads who say there never was a Bear market except for a quick-and-dirty correction in 1987.

In a sense, I do agree with them, although as a cycles analyst, I label all these ups and downs as Bull and Bear. But I do believe that in a disinflationary period, financial assets that are characterized as interest-rate and economy sensitive are going to trend higher than the commodity-price sensitive assets, and during an inflation cycle the opposite happens, but most importantly, it is only during a disinflation cycle where equity prices are broadly and rapidly advancing. And during the type of market that exists today, which is an inflationary one, the markets roll over continuously in time, with less magnitude up and down.

How is it that the Dow 30 index can appear to some of you to be bear-resistant? Well, public-relations is a wonderful thing, and it's getting more effective all the time because of a remarkable increase in the depth of personal communications over the Internet. So, when stock groups are moving to new highs, you will have those as your top-of-mind because of the many influences on you from media. I'm sure that the number of images we each today as opposed to 1980 say would be a quantum factor higher (although I'm guessing).

After all, these images are mostly sent to you from sales people, and sales persons will not focus you on the losers, and set up unnecessary selling hurdles.

Some call this dummying down of society. I see it more as anaesthesia. We're getting the full-court media press, and we too are more susceptible, I think, to receiving positive images " especially outside the daily news.

Why do I say that I expect a sharp correction like 1987? Well, I do not see enough recognition of the realities that monetary policy is still being tightened, that the economy is slowing, that the U.S. government twin deficits problem is being resolved. I see signs of continued flooding of liquidity into the system to keep the bills of government paid, and that money goes to buying assets at higher than fair-value prices, which is a definition of inflation.

When I start to see capitulation in the market as these facts start to weigh on traders, I think it will happen quickly, with weeks of 700 to 1,000 point down days on the Dow Industrials index. Then, like 1987, there will be buyers looking for bargains because there is still so much cash in the system. The central bankers cannot remove it fast enough to also not crash the global economy.

Yes, I am thinking that the public has not been properly focused on the extent of losses in some stock groups over the past year. And since all groups/sectors did not crash at once like 1973, 1981, 1987 or 2000, say, then there has always been something good in the market to focus on. And, like I say, you have been focused on those by the Wall Street Talking Heads and by the financial media.

For the past 6 months to a year, you have been pointed to the rallies in GM, MRK, MO, BA and JPM, for instance, and you have not been as conscious of the massive losses that have occurred in the relatively bigger cap INTC, HD, MSFT, WMT or even GE.

Let's suppose that for the next six months there are rallies in recent losers INTC, HD, MSFT, WMT and GE, but at the same time there are failures in recent winners GM, MRK, MO, BA and JPM, and let's say that the major market indexes drop say -10 pct from here. Would you say this is still a Bull market? I agree; some of you would.

Herein lies a problem: the next Bull market may start without you. Those with a fixed mind-set that the Dow 30 will likely drop to say Bill Cara's forecast of 8,800 for the cycle low, might be disappointed if it never happens.

Many of you read the daily Dow high, low and close data. Do you realize that the high figure reported was never reached, or the low figure was never reached that day? The index is a summation of the high, low and close of each of the individual 30 stock components, so the calculation is misleading.

It would be almost certain never to be the case they all hit the high or the low at the precise same fraction of a minute you are watching the index calculations during the day.

What I am saying then is that my low figure may never be reached because the lows for the day, week, month or quarter of Dow components are not going to happen on the same day.

But if you take the low for each of the Dow components over a quarter year, you would likely see a proximate "reported" low and my forecast low.

The point to all of this is we trade prices of individual stocks, so when I opine that INTC is hitting a cycle bottom at 17, and some of you hold off accumulating because you fear the whole of the broad market index has not yet bottomed (or come close to my Dow 8800 forecast) then I think you stand a good chance of missing the cycle bottom for Intel stock.

This is why last week I started publishing many of the Monthly data charts, and I encouraged you to start looking at Monthly as well as Weekly and Daily data series for the Relative Strength Index technical indicator for each stock in you watch list.

In any event, I don't much care about a forecast low or high of a broad market index because I trade the stocks of individual companies where I can see the specific case of financial strength, operating metrics, and so forth.

At the end of the day, I know that if I buy during my accumulation zone and sell during my distribution zone for each stock, whether or not it is a component of any market index, then I will be doing well over the long run if my watch-list is comprised of good quality companies. I don't need to know whether this is called value investing, or growth, or growth at a reasonable price or any other marketing label put on it. To me it is just common sense.

Now, let's see how this past week went for prices in the capital markets. It was quite a week.

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Global Market Summary

International Equities: This week was one of the strongest for prices for well over a year. Using ETFs and closed-end funds as a proxy, Russia was up +7.7 pct, Brazil +6.9 pct, Japan +6.3 pct, India +5.4 pct, the Europe 350 up +5.0 pct, the Footsie (UK) +4.9 pct, China (FXI) +4.8 pct and Canada +4.1 pct. There were no losers.

U.S. Equities : "Any weakness in the earnings reports is causing stocks to be smashed, which is typical of a Bear market." You can quote me from last week, but this week the overriding facts were that the U.S. equities were up on average about +3.5 pct. "When stocks start to rally or at least hold their own after bad news, then you know that the bear phase is about to end." That's another quote from last week; we'll have to wait until next earnings season at the beginning of October " and the weeks leading up to that (where insiders know!) " to see if this week's rally can be duplicated. Actually, the earnings reports were better than expected, which gave confidence to the Bull side.

Dow 30 : Two weeks ago there was just one of the Dow 30 that moved higher in price. I wrote: "Since interest rates are not going up, this is all about the recognition of economic woes and what is likely to happen during Earnings Season." A week ago, there were 20 Dow stocks that lifted, although I said "I wouldn't give any credence to it". Then this week, the rally actually happened: 28 of 30 Dow stocks were up, and the two losers were off just pennies. But 9 of the Dow 30 were up more than +5 pct this week!

U.S. Sector ETFs: Ten of the 10 ETF's I track were up. Energy (XLE), which had dropped to worst a week ago, was up +6.0 pct (third best), and the long-time loser semiconductor chips (SMH) jumped to #1 (didn't I warn you?), up +7.7 pct this week. Telephony was up +6.4 pct to take 2nd spot. After the first few days of August, when the Funds invest their new cash, I'll be looking to advise an exit. This is still a Bear market " just an extended rally into further distribution. With so much stock to cut loose, the rally needs more time. I can only imagine what the final sell-off is going to look like. Remember, replacing these stocks can be done easily today by futures and options.

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #3 (+6.0 pct); Abundant supplies nobody worries about
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #7 (+2.0 pct); Pushed up by metals
20: Industrials (XLI): #10 (+1.0 pct); Aluminum a loser
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #5 (+2.9 pct); Some losers still
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #9 (+1.0 pct); Gained half of a week ago
35: Healthcare (IYH): #4 (+3.4 pct); PFE up +16.5 pct in 2 weeks, MRK too
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #6 (+1.8 pct); Gained less than a week ago
45: Tech (SMH chips): #1 (+7.7 pct); Huge rally, as forecasted
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): #2 (+6.4 pct); T/VZ up +10.0/+5.8pct
55: Utilities (XLU): #8 (+1.6 pct); Gained less than a week ago

Bonds: There was another slight improvement in U.S. bond prices this week. There was a huge increase in the price of two-year bonds on Friday. And the yield curve flattened more, evidencing economic concerns. Besides the interest-rate sensitive equities gained much less than their economic and commodity price sensitive peers.

Commodities: A week ago I wrote: "$CRB was down -4.9 pct W/W. This decline was across the board in oil, metals and precious metals, which was surprising in a falling USD market." This week, commodity prices lifted in tune with a further falling USD. Copper was up +6.8 pct W/W to lead the base and precious metals rally.

Oil & Gas: Two weeks ago the $WTIC futures were up +6.24 pct, and then a week ago were down -5.44 pct W/W. So I wrote: "After a new record high of 78.71 the previous week, this week NY Crude dropped to 74.43 " even in the face of much worse fighting in the Middle East. Do you recall that for the past two weeks I pined that $WTIC would peak at 75 for this short-term cycle? Maybe the 78.71 price was an anomaly?" This week, NY Crude fell a further -1.6 pct to close at 73.34.

Gold: A week ago when $GOLD dropped 41.46 (-6.24 pct W/W), I wrote: "This is a day-traders market. At the end of the week, gold was falling in price even as the USD was dropping quickly and Israeli troops were invading Lebanon, threatening world peace. Who can explain gold doing that other than the sellers who have a different agenda at hand?" Some agenda! Starting this week, liquidity flooded the markets and equities rallied a huge amount and precious metals took off within minutes of my buy alert on Wed.

Goldminers: The goldminers were up +8.3 pct (GDX in the U.S.) and +8.5 pct for the TSE listed XGD). A week ago, these indexes were down between -7.5 pct and -7.9 pct W/W, so I wrote: "(this) is a serious move. Prices are (like PM prices) below their long-term Moving Averages, which is a negative technical indicator. I'm not fleeing, however, because I believe the USD will now start to rapidly decline, and gold held at its 620 support level." So no matter how much pressure was on me re: precious metals, I held tough. I had a reason; and things worked out. Now I think we'll see these prices move into over-drive. I don't have to say that " I could take the easy way out " but I believe it.

Forex: A week ago I wrote: "Even with a new war front in the Middle East, there was a weaker $USD. Moreover, Bernanke told Congress there are patches of concern in the U.S. economy " and this at a time other central banks have to tighten, which strengthens their currency. Ergo, the USD drops." Same old; same old.

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Sector ETF:

All ten sector ETF's were up. The market stopped churning. I am lying in wait to sell into strength that will likely exhaust itself by Friday August 4. I'm hoping for a soft landing until September, so that the precious metals have some time to really run.

For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds (ETF's). The following table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SMH	31.42	0.86	2.81%	7.68%	2.28%	-4.99%	-17.14%	-16.55%	-17.81%	-15.92%
IYZ	26.30	0.31	1.19%	6.35%	6.91%	3.91%	14.50%	2.90%	10.18%	8.77%
XLE	57.77	0.02	0.03%	6.04%	-0.09%	2.14%	9.62%	1.10%	1.98%	20.10%
IYH	63.33	0.36	0.57%	3.38%	6.26%	5.55%	-0.47%	2.46%	-1.43%	0.36%
XLY	32.26	0.39	1.22%	2.94%	2.77%	-3.33%	-2.24%	-5.37%	-3.50%	-7.88%
XLF	33.13	0.58	1.78%	2.63%	4.78%	2.16%	2.89%	-2.44%	2.98%	9.70%
XLB	30.77	0.55	1.82%	2.40%	-0.03%	-3.69%	-0.49%	-8.15%	-2.63%	7.03%
XLU	33.99	0.23	0.68%	1.58%	4.07%	5.56%	6.22%	8.52%	5.07%	5.36%
XLP	24.69	0.23	0.94%	1.02%	2.88%	1.60%	5.33%	3.61%	4.93%	4.71%
XLI	32.02	0.36	1.14%	1.01%	0.06%	-5.38%	1.23%	-7.27%	1.27%	4.23%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF's " up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's. I do that frequently.

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

This week, XLE was up +6.04 pct W/W, closing at 57.77.

Despite falling crude oil prices, traders were starting to focus on the dividend paying abilities of these financially strong companies. Even in a Bear market, some traders are thinking that these companies will not cut their dividend and will likely continue to buy back stock.

But this week, under fire for "excessive" profits by some lame excuses for politicians, I heard the ExxonMobil CEO talk about his responsibility to stakeholders, and his (659,000) shareholders and (84,000) employees were (mostly) Americans who needed his help to cover their costs at the fuel pump. Hmmm.

In any case, the dividend is pretty much set at $0.32 for each of the next two quarters. The company will likely buy about 400 million XOM shares off the market this year and again next.

This is a company that will make over $14 billion in capital expenditures this year and again next, and easily has the cash to do it.

In Bear markets, the oils drop just like the others. But, unless NY Crude Oil drops below say $65, it's likely to be a slow sell, and maybe not until late in hurricane season (October).

I think there is a case to be made for oil down at $55, which would shake out many of the XLE Bulls, and that action would take the heavily-weighted XOM and CVX down as well. Because of the continous high demand from China and India, I do not foresee oil prices going back to the 40's ever. So ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco (another Cara 100) are good bets as far out as I can see, which is a couple months. Even the high cost production in the politically secure Western Canada oil sands is likely a safe bet for investment into September.

But there will be a full-out swing to this Bear market at some point, which you need to factor into decision making if you plan to hold XOM and some of these high quality oils.

If you go to the Value Line chart for XOM, and zero in on the last recession, which stated 2Q01 and lasted until 4Q01 (when all the post-9/11 money flooded into the system, the maximum spread between the XOM high and low share price was $45.80 (high) to $35.00 (low), which was -23.6 pct.

(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 16: next one is due Sep. 15)

That was a tough Bear market in 2000-2002, and oil prices were much lower then. If traders think the same could happen soon, based on a slowing economy that could possibly go into recession, then a similar pull-back from the recent high of $67.65 would take the price down to a low of about $51.70. With the dividend this year slated for $1.28, the yield would be 2.5 pct. The average dividend yield over the past nine years for XOM has been 2.35 pct, so a cycle low price (high yield) would be about 2.5 pct.

I'd love to see XOM revert to their dividend policy in the 1990's until mid-1996 when the company used to be a very high 4.6 pct (average) dividend payer, based on a payout of about 50 pct of profit. Now they are down to half that. Nevertheless, ExxonMobil is a Cara 100 company because of its financial strength, operating metrics and solid management.

Here's the XLE Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Monthly data:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ECA	53.86	1.22	2.32%	13.53%	6.74%	1.70%	15.33%	7.61%	14.33%	27.06%
PBR	92.72	2.14	2.36%	9.57%	3.49%	5.50%	24.09%	-6.18%	2.97%	75.84%
STO	30.15	0.05	0.17%	7.45%	-0.99%	4.25%	24.95%	-8.02%	12.21%	39.78%
TOT	68.08	0.81	1.20%	7.23%	4.64%	6.13%	-47.66%	-50.67%	-50.34%	-45.69%
CEO	86.21	0.76	0.89%	4.93%	5.65%	6.71%	24.60%	4.27%	1.15%	32.22%
XOM	67.00	0.53	0.80%	4.80%	3.24%	7.42%	14.59%	6.21%	9.32%	11.67%
IMO	36.49	0.39	1.08%	3.05%	-1.78%	1.90%	-64.91%	-66.43%	-64.33%	-57.21%
SU	79.89	-0.22	-0.27%	2.50%	-0.41%	-0.49%	21.91%	-6.82%	1.47%	61.88%
CVX	66.05	-1.68	-2.48%	2.48%	-0.50%	5.76%	11.80%	8.24%	9.39%	12.06%

A week ago when the oil stocks were faring badly I commented that maybe they were getting exhausted. No, it appears they were just resting. This week the XLE ETF was up +6.04 pct, for 3rd best of ten.

Canada's EnCana (a Cara 100) was up +13.5 pct W/W, which takes the YTD gain up to +15.3 pct. So, for ECA it's been a pretty good year this week!

But Suncor (another Cara 100) has had tough sledding for the past six months (+1.47 pct only). The data for Imperial Oil (IMO) is incorrect, obviously.

On Friday, the Oil Sands stocks got clipped, except for IMO, which is owned 70 pct by ExxonMobil. XOM had a good day Friday (+0.80 pct) based on solid operating results.

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EnCana Corp. [GICS 10, Cara 100]
(ECA: Yahoo Finance file)
(ECA: StockChart chart)
(ECA: Investertech chart)
(ECA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(ECA: ADVFN Financial Data)

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Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) was another solid performer this week. XLB went up by +2.40 pct W/W (matching the prior week's loss) to close at 30.77.

Actually, most of the gain was on Friday (+1.82 pct) because that was the day the base and precious metals zoomed.

With all the losses for the past couple weeks, I remarked last week: "But the miners will be ok because prices are inflating, and economies are always growing; in terms of a new world-class mine coming into production, it hasn't happened for many years. So the natural resource is declining, and (over time) the prices have to escalate. Same is true for oil. Sometimes they run up too far, too fast, but that's why we have to do our homework."

In the case of oil, I think the world has plenty on hand for many years and there are readily available options (nuclear, coal, wind; and smaller cars, for example).

The price of oil (and to a lesser extent the metals) is largely dictated by the producing company's refusal to carry more inventory of crude and to not build the refining capacity that is needed. The optimal operating efficiency in that case works against the interests of the general public because the downstream price at the pumps carries the net profits made by speculators (mostly) upstream.

If the integrated oil companies were broken up into discrete pieces (exploration, production, transport, refining, marketing) then Big Oil would become Small Oil and the extra competition in each business segment would result in lower prices at the user end, I think.

I say I think so because I am not an expert in this area. But where oligopolies exist in the area of essential goods and services, they will " as aptly explained by the ExxonMobil CEO this week " work to the benefit of the shareholders. That includes the act of passing along trading losses to the customers in the form of higher consumer prices.

And now that the public suffers higher than necessary prices at the pumps, there are (ridiculous) calls for an excess profits tax. The answer seems to me to be to break up the oligopoly.

The precedent of course is the Bell System telephone oligopoly that the U.S. government broke up in 1984. I anticipate similar discussions to follow this year re the break-up of ExxonMobilChevronTexaco and Co.

The point I'd like to make about the miners is that this is not such a problem -- yet.

Individual producers need to refine the weighty material at or near the mine site. Downstream, they don't control the marketing. So mining company managements, to this point, have not materially affected prices like the oil companies have.

But that situation is rapidly changing as individual companies are starting to gain global oligopoly control in some of the base metals and steel. To the extent the corporate mergers game continues to escalate in the mining business " and it will " then the "controlled" price of metals will zoom. Shareholders will be served.

The world has a lot of energy sources, but very few major metals mines have been discovered in recent years. Then after production, there is a lengthy two to four year period of ramping up production, which is not the case for oil.

I am writing about this now because sometime soon I suspect it will become a much debated issue. And one that will affect Big Oil share prices if it becomes a focus of the legislators.

The related issue, of course, is the trading of the producers versus the public. In the free market, to the extent the public can out-trade the Commercials, the losses of the Commercials must be borne by shareholders. But in an oligopoly situation, those losses can be (and will be) passed through to the consumers in the form of higher prices.

Here's the XLB Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Monthly data:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

Did you note that in the Monthly and Weekly data charts how the price sidetracked or fell soon after the Relative Strength Index (RSI 7) reached into the 75, and it rallied after RSI 7 approached the 30 line.

In a sideways trending market the 30-70 lines are effective indicators of accumulation-distribution points, and the time period charts: (i) Monthly- (ii) Weekly- (iii) Daily- (iv) Hourly data, can be matched to traders who have a trading perspective that is: (i) longer than one year (ii) less than one year but greater than one month (iii) less than one month but greater than one week, or (iv) less than one week.

Day traders use a combination of other technical tools plus RSI 7 on the charts that are based on 2, 3, 5, 10 and 15-minute data, depending on volume of the instrument being traded. Day traders like to trade the "most active" securities where they can use the 2 or 3-minute-based indicators. They are basically scalping, i.e., trading the market inefficiencies caused by abnormal order flow of major block traders.

If you happen to be a highly-skilled day trader, there are brokers you can use that permit you to trade gold or indexes with just one percent margin, or just 5 pct margin for trading in over 1,000 internationally-listed stocks.

A $6,350 position, for example, would control $635,000 (1,000 oz) of gold. The leverage is that if gold moves up by +1.0 pct, the profit is +100.0 pct. The other way (-1.0 pct) wipes out the capital. The profits/losses are theoretically unlimited, so it's not a game. It's a business for professional traders " even those working from home.

I plan to advise on that type of account as well as those who use one or more of the traditional electronic brokerage platforms.

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
RIO	23.66	0.83	3.64%	10.20%	6.05%	0.25%	10.05%	-8.15%	-4.98%	44.80%
GGB	15.62	0.62	4.13%	9.31%	9.61%	4.97%	-10.28%	-9.71%	-27.35%	51.36%
NUE	52.55	1.40	2.74%	8.46%	4.31%	-4.21%	51.53%	-3.42%	22.92%	87.01%
RTP	210.33	6.07	2.97%	8.09%	2.88%	0.06%	11.40%	-5.55%	-0.84%	58.14%
N	76.40	2.50	3.38%	7.23%	15.32%	16.96%	76.57%	35.29%	51.59%	85.35%
PD	81.50	3.42	4.38%	5.57%	2.14%	-0.61%	9.15%	-5.44%	-0.43%	50.65%
PKX	61.85	2.37	3.98%	4.81%	2.42%	-8.44%	23.08%	-12.23%	7.29%	24.20%
BHP	42.91	0.43	1.01%	3.25%	1.68%	1.35%	22.60%	-5.82%	8.72%	45.70%
ACH	69.39	-0.51	-0.73%	1.45%	-1.36%	-8.40%	-12.61%	-29.34%	-24.85%	17.61%
AA	29.73	0.41	1.40%	0.58%	-3.44%	-6.80%	-0.57%	-11.99%	-5.02%	4.06%

Isn't it interesting there was such a shake-out right before the price advance?

A week ago I wrote: "All the major metals stocks I follow " except for Inco, which is in play, took big hits this week. One of the world's biggest base metal producers, Rio Tinto (RTP) dropped -4.83 pct W/W; So these stocks are getting hammered. It's not just gold; In the golds, Meridian (MDG), Lihir, Goldfields and Glamis, which are large producers, as a group diversified around the world, were down over -10.0 pct this week. And Goldcorp dropped -9.9 pct, and Newmont was down -7.8 pct W/W."

I figured it could have been a sell-off due to concerns over economic slowing and stories of Chinese authorities drastically slowing the pace of economic growth there. I laughed off the latter one (China) but the other one had enough merit for me to write: "I may try to look into this picture more on Sunday evening."

Then on Wednesday morning I determined that precious metals were going to rally. They did. Below, in Table 12, you will see by how much.

The aluminum stocks continue their long-term decline, however. In the past three months, Alcoa is down -12.0 pct and China Aluminum has plunged -29.3 pct.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The ETF for the Industrials and Transport sector, aka capital goods producers, (XLI) was up +1.01 pct W/W to 32.02, which included a rally of +1.14 pct on Friday.

Here's the XLI Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Monthly data:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
HON	38.26	0.28	0.74%	5.66%	3.38%	-4.25%	2.14%	-9.98%	1.19%	-1.87%
CAT	71.21	0.49	0.69%	4.18%	2.92%	-4.29%	23.20%	-5.98%	5.45%	30.78%
TYC	26.23	0.37	1.43%	3.96%	1.43%	-3.85%	-11.50%	-0.46%	-0.87%	-14.81%
UTX	62.15	0.52	0.84%	3.67%	5.68%	-1.80%	9.94%	-1.05%	5.79%	21.03%
ERJ	34.97	-0.02	-0.06%	2.55%	3.71%	-2.04%	-10.93%	-9.94%	-10.54%	6.29%
CBE	86.02	1.36	1.61%	2.40%	-1.73%	-6.97%	16.43%	-5.94%	9.33%	32.05%
GE	33.02	0.37	1.13%	2.39%	2.83%	-0.75%	-6.64%	-4.54%	0.21%	-5.33%
BA	78.91	0.20	0.25%	-0.21%	2.15%	-4.93%	12.18%	-5.44%	15.10%	19.56%
MMM	70.52	0.77	1.10%	-0.28%	-0.98%	-13.10%	-10.86%	-17.45%	-2.93%	-5.60%

While Boeing and 3M both ran into headwinds, Honeywell (+5.7 pct), Caterpillar (+4.2 pct) and United Technologies (+3.7 pct) led the Dow higher. Interesting that these are the three free Dow 30 reports from Value Line on Friday.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was up +2.94 pct W/W, which was good for #5 of 10 ETFs I follow.

But, I remain basically negative (at best, cautious) on XLY.

Here's the XLY Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Monthly data:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TM	105.60	2.50	2.42%	6.90%	7.80%	3.30%	-1.17%	-9.84%	3.08%	39.28%
BC	29.53	0.53	1.83%	6.11%	7.15%	-8.72%	-27.66%	-24.71%	-18.31%	-36.33%
DIS	29.70	0.49	1.68%	4.32%	4.25%	-0.60%	21.72%	6.22%	18.42%	14.45%
WHR	78.26	0.76	0.98%	3.26%	3.22%	-5.04%	-5.33%	-12.80%	-4.26%	-2.10%
JCP	62.75	1.32	2.15%	1.13%	-3.22%	-7.30%	11.16%	-4.14%	11.63%	9.45%
SBUX	34.03	0.45	1.34%	0.71%	1.10%	-10.38%	10.24%	-8.69%	6.51%	29.20%
CCL	39.70	0.08	0.20%	0.33%	-0.05%	-3.34%	-27.25%	-15.21%	-24.24%	-25.68%
NKE	79.90	0.94	1.19%	-0.20%	1.68%	-1.33%	-7.04%	-2.37%	-3.91%	-5.44%
EBAY	24.43	0.73	3.08%	-0.20%	-4.50%	-16.51%	-45.05%	-29.00%	-44.57%	-41.86%

There were some good winners here this week. Toyota (TM), Brunswick (BC) and Disney (DIS) were leaders, going up on the week +6.9 pct, +6.1 pct and +4.3 pct respectively.

But I think this was mostly short-covering and bottom feeding after these stocks had been getting hammered recently.

Even with these results, TM has been down -9.8 pct in 3 months, and BC -24.7 pct. DIS, in the past 4 weeks, has lost -0.60 pct, including this week's gain.

Nike (NKE) and Ebay (EBAY) were losers this week, and Carnival Cruise (CCL) eked out a small gain, largely on Friday.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) gained +1.02 pct W/W to close at 24.69. That's not of a gain ($0.25) in a strong week in the market.

Here's the XLP Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Monthly data:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DEO	70.52	1.02	1.47%	5.05%	5.92%	5.03%	18.40%	6.45%	17.44%	26.83%
ABV	40.58	0.83	2.09%	2.60%	4.83%	0.02%	5.29%	-12.35%	-1.74%	29.65%
BUD	47.90	-0.16	-0.33%	2.33%	6.00%	4.75%	9.69%	7.45%	14.46%	6.99%
WMT	44.46	0.93	2.14%	1.69%	3.28%	-8.73%	-3.83%	-1.27%	-3.01%	-10.76%
KO	44.52	0.21	0.47%	1.41%	4.38%	3.39%	8.85%	6.10%	6.08%	0.29%
PG	56.81	0.37	0.66%	1.32%	2.14%	-0.32%	-3.35%	-2.41%	-4.90%	1.77%
MO	80.69	0.82	1.03%	1.28%	4.26%	9.20%	7.62%	10.29%	7.98%	20.24%
WFMI	57.65	1.59	2.84%	0.98%	-1.27%	-10.37%	-25.23%	-6.08%	-21.03%	-5.74%
WAG	46.93	-0.53	-1.12%	0.82%	2.04%	3.67%	3.39%	11.92%	9.42%	-2.23%
PEP	63.13	0.64	1.02%	0.59%	2.15%	6.10%	5.64%	8.40%	8.47%	14.93%

The big winner in my books was Diageo (DEO), whose customers " readers included -- lifted enough Guinness glasses this week to shoot the stock of this conservative company up by +5.1 pct.

Traders ought to be careful with DEO though because the stock (a Cara 100) is getting pricey, with a RSI 7 of 83.2 on the Daily, 77.2 on the Weekly and 86.5 on the Monthly. Clearly $70.52 for DEO is in my Distribution zone. I'll be looking to buy it back within six months under say $60 (to be determined at the time it hits my Accumulation zone).

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Diageo plc [GICS 30, Cara 100]
(DEO: Yahoo Finance file)
(DEO: StockChart chart)
(DEO: Investertech chart)
(DEO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DEO: ADVFN Financial Data)

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The healthcare ETF (IYH) dropped down fro #1 to #4 best performer of ten ETFs. IYH was up +3.38 pct W/W to close at 63.33.

Pfizer (PFE) and Merck (MRK), both Dow 30 components, were up strongly again.

Here's the IYH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Monthly data:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
PFE	26.11	0.46	1.79%	9.57%	16.51%	12.35%	9.80%	3.08%	0.46%	-2.47%
BMET	33.51	0.93	2.85%	9.47%	10.41%	5.11%	-9.14%	-9.87%	-10.33%	-11.72%
AMGN	69.07	-0.21	-0.30%	4.41%	7.33%	6.10%	-14.05%	2.02%	-3.14%	-14.73%
DNA	80.14	-1.36	-1.67%	2.84%	0.86%	0.01%	-14.74%	0.54%	-8.37%	-9.88%
NVS	56.35	0.59	1.06%	1.99%	3.53%	5.50%	5.39%	-2.02%	1.26%	15.45%
JNJ	62.92	0.36	0.58%	1.93%	4.07%	5.06%	2.09%	7.35%	7.17%	-2.80%
GSK	55.62	0.34	0.62%	0.49%	2.87%	1.20%	9.14%	-2.22%	6.63%	16.73%
BMY	24.47	0.43	1.79%	-4.08%	-0.37%	-4.79%	5.29%	-3.59%	6.44%	-2.78%
UNH	47.85	-1.61	-3.26%	-4.30%	0.63%	6.31%	-22.49%	-3.80%	-18.26%	-9.58%
AET	32.17	-1.08	-3.25%	-17.53%	-14.98%	-18.02%	-31.60%	-16.44%	-30.59%	-17.93%

Last week I wrote: "United Health (UNH) continues to leap ahead, going up +5.15 pct on the week, and +12.5 pct over four weeks. This is a terrific company but for quite a while it was going up and down faster than a teeter-totter in a playground full of children. Do you think that the SEC investigation into back-dating options might have something to do with this erratic behavior? Too many times, there is "pump and dump" right before the truth breaks out. Maybe I have it wrong on this company " I hope so because it sits in the Cara 100. And I am speculating. We''ll know soon enough."

Table 7 shows that even though Healthcare enjoyed a terrific week -- PFE was up +9.6 pct and MRK (Merck) jumped even higher (+10.1 pct W/W) " UNH dropped -4.30 pct. Maybe it's the blog? Do you think? (lol)

Actually it was that crystal ball working in overdrive (I'm watching Schumy win yet another F-1 race, so the word comes to mind). On Friday, the IRS made some statements, and I think UNH is going to be included.

By taking the names from the AP newswire and running their performance for the past two weeks, I was surprised to see that most have gained. On Friday, it was just United Health and Barnes & Noble that lost.

There had been speculation that possibly the semiconductor stocks have been depressed for reasons of improper pricing and records back-dating regarding employee stock options. But maybe that's not much of a factor. Besides there are some chip companies I think are pretty darn ethical " like Intel " that I'd be surprised the low stock prices are on account of ethics related problems.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

A week ago I wrote: "Even though the treasury yield curve flattened more this week, making it tough for lending banks to make money lending, the Financial sector ETF XLF was third best ETF performer on the week. Funny how that usually happens whenever Bernanke or the President are all over the TV."

So what happens, this week the Financials ETF (XLF) gained just +1.78 pct to 33.13, but 100-pct of the gain was on Friday, which just happened to be a blockbuster TV day for Pres. Bush and his buddy British Prime Minister Blair.

Why don't these people do their photo ops on Saturday's so we can forget about them by Monday?

In any event, the increased flattening of the bond yield curve this week didn't help the interest-rate sensitive stock sectors. XLF and XLU had modest gains in an otherwise strong week.

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Here's the XLF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Monthly data:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CSR	56.09	1.75	3.22%	9.74%	8.34%	1.82%	5.14%	-7.73%	-2.86%	32.73%
LEH	65.40	3.11	4.99%	8.26%	8.05%	1.27%	0.71%	-13.46%	-5.74%	22.33%
DB	116.41	3.37	2.98%	7.56%	9.81%	5.16%	17.04%	-4.68%	10.92%	33.77%
GS	151.72	3.46	2.33%	6.81%	8.29%	-0.32%	17.73%	-5.35%	9.20%	38.34%
UBS	54.48	1.33	2.50%	6.78%	7.95%	0.54%	10.40%	-6.74%	0.91%	32.17%
MS	66.23	1.17	1.80%	5.95%	9.13%	5.90%	13.31%	3.00%	8.97%	0.00%
JPM	45.48	0.78	1.74%	5.40%	11.23%	6.56%	13.16%	0.22%	14.42%	28.26%
HBC	90.86	0.75	0.83%	3.47%	4.47%	3.78%	11.24%	4.82%	8.91%	11.51%
MER	72.30	1.48	2.09%	3.33%	7.13%	3.17%	5.61%	-5.19%	-3.24%	21.76%
C	48.33	1.02	2.16%	2.98%	1.58%	-1.08%	-1.95%	-3.24%	3.12%	10.19%

This week, the strongest financial companies (mostly Humungous Bank & Broker) did enjoy a good week, even if XLF was up modestly.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

The semi-conductor industry ETF (SMH) finally came through to ETF watch-list performer number one. SMH was up +7.68 pct W/W to close at 31.42.

Including all the various non-chip stocks in the tech group (as in the table I listed off the top, my 17 recommendations (for a short-term trade) were up this week by +5.6 pct. Not too shabby.

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Here's the SMH Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Monthly data:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SNDK	47.14	0.80	1.73%	25.67%	20.32%	-9.99%	-30.37%	-26.15%	-25.62%	38.65%
INFY	41.61	1.30	3.23%	8.98%	-46.99%	-44.51%	-48.28%	-47.09%	-44.32%	-42.15%
ADSK	32.41	1.01	3.22%	7.64%	6.44%	-5.98%	-24.19%	-22.91%	-20.99%	-6.46%
INTC	18.18	0.71	4.06%	6.01%	1.68%	-5.90%	-28.90%	-9.01%	-16.11%	-33.50%
CTSH	64.54	2.03	3.25%	5.72%	3.26%	-4.26%	27.32%	1.46%	26.80%	36.88%
SAP	45.66	0.91	2.03%	4.80%	-2.60%	-12.75%	-0.63%	-16.42%	-9.40%	5.60%
QCOM	35.79	1.27	3.68%	3.92%	-1.59%	-11.72%	-18.66%	-30.29%	-25.47%	-10.03%
CSCO	18.08	0.39	2.20%	3.55%	0.78%	-9.19%	3.61%	-13.70%	-3.73%	-6.32%
ADBE	27.63	1.16	4.38%	-0.07%	-1.36%	-9.11%	-28.27%	-29.52%	-31.06%	-8.11%
ORCL	15.07	0.20	1.34%	-0.33%	5.46%	2.24%	19.60%	3.29%	21.43%	8.81%

The story of the week, other than the turnaround in the tech stocks, particularly in the chip group, was the Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) take-over of ATI Technologies.

Now, if the SEC wants to start checking for illegal insider trading, including the accountants and lawyers on this deal, they might find some. Over 6 months, including the spectacular +47.5 pct gains in the past month, and +21.6 pct this week after he deal was announced, ATYT stock was up just +12.83 pct. That means that until the news of the deal was leaked into the market, ATYT was suffering the same poor performance in the stock market, and in business, as the others in this group.

There can be no other explanation but that there has been significant insider trading in this deal.

One thing I'd like legislators and regulators to watch is the CNBC mentions of a deal before it is announced. They in effect become tipper by passing along the leak. It is not fair to the marketplace to have leaks placed at CNBC (or any financial media) that creates interest, which then gives an alibi to the perpetrator of a fraud. All the fraudster has to say is I saw this possible deal mentioned on CNBC and it made sense to me so I bought the stock and (more likely) the highly leveraged options.

This is bad for the marketplace: you know it, I know it; and the legislators and regulators know it. So why isn't something done about it?

The other story is the superb performance of SanDisk (SNDK) stock. A week ago I wrote: "This week SanDisk (SNDK) only lost -4.26 pct, which means it dropped -21.0 pct over two weeks and -28.1 pct over four weeks. So if you bought some, you are averaging down; Bad joke; Yes, I am likely to trade SNDK for a short rally on a good market day because it's over-sold now and it's a good company. But I am concerned about its market, and I'm thinking Micron Technoloy (MU) might be the better selection; I'm going to keep SanDisk in the Cara 100, but I want to see what various Wall Street analysts are saying before I commit too much."

I forgot to add Micron Technologies (MU) to the recommendations table the first time I printed it at the top of this WIR #30.

So while SNDK was up +21.7 pct this week, MU was up +11.8 pct.

Now, had you purchased this list on 5-pct margin this week, just think about your portfolio performance! (Shameless promotion for my future advisory service.)

A week ago I wrote: "Inteller lost -4.08 pct this week " the worst of all Dow 30 stocks " but it was up a bit on what was a lousy Friday. INTC closed at $17.15. If you don't want to buy INTC in the 16's, then you ought not buy anything. A year or two from now you'll be kicking yourself; Why do you think I would put Inteller and not AMD into the Cara 100? It's money in the bank; (and then later in the week) If there is one objective I'd like to accomplish, it would be to convince readers that Intel is a wonderful company."

So, INTC was up +6.01 pct this week. But "you knew that already". (lol)

---

Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

I may not care much for the U.S. telco sector other than AT&T, but the sector ETF (IYZ) was up +6.35 pct W/W to close at 26.30.

A week ago I wrote: "AT&T was up +2.9 pct this week, so I'm happy to have pointed a few people there " i.e., those who seek a high dividend yield in a crummy market for stocks." This week T jumped +9.95 pct. Wow!

I guess, with the exception of T, I missed the big move in this sector. Do you believe IYZ is sector ETF #1 performer over the past six months?

Some of you did, but truly how many pros in the market realize that the performance of IYZ is more than double that (+10.18 pct) over the #2 sector ETF (XLU at +5.07 pct) over six months? Amazing.

What's been happening is that Big Money has been going defensive as the equity market cycles from Bull to Bear.

Of course, that's my interpretation. The other one (which would embarrass me greatly, if true) is that the conventional sector rotation in a new Bull market is to start with regulated Utilities and Telcos moving first, then the Financials and the Consumer Staples. Next are the Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary sectors, followed by the Techs, and hen the Industrials. The last group to rally in a Bull (or to fall in a Bear) are first the Oils and then the Metals. The Precious Metals are usually last.

Of course, that's the idealized market cycle model, and you know things always deviate from the norm. But if true, and some people believe this, the equity market today is already starting a new Bull.

I cannot bring myself to that conclusion. I happen to think that we're just in an extended rally that will soon catch up to the normal Bear cycle. Catching up has implications, you know. It means the next fall will be a hard one.

Here's the IYZ Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Monthly data:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities ETF (XLU) closed up +1.58 pct W/W to close at 33.99. A week ago, XLU was up +2.45 pct W/W. The stronger bonds helped again, as they usually do at the start of a Bull market (oops!).

Actually, I believe we are in a Bear, and that the drop in interest rates that usually propel bonds first as well as the interest-rate sensitive equity groups (telcos, utilities, and banks) is a reflection of small buying and some short-covering in the bond market.

That's my take anyway.

Four weeks ago I wrote:

At this point, I think bonds are getting close to their cycle bottom, which, if true, would take the pressure off the debt-laden utilities. So, I' not going to be so negative on these utilities stocks. In fact, as I indicated elsewhere in this report, I think it's a good time for long-term income oriented traders to start looking for solid dividend payers, and almost (but not quite) a good time to go back to bonds. It could also be that some of the highest quality Canadian income trusts (as rated by the leading Canadian bank-owned dealer analysts) are worthy of your consideration at this point.

And you know through July I have been encouraging you "to be switching from equities to bonds. Some of the utility stocks will zoom if, as and when interest rates start to drop. They will likely also outperform in a Bear market too because traders can count on these companies maintaining a solid cash flow through a downturn in the economy."

But, you've heard that from me before.

Here's the XLU Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Monthly data:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

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Bonds:

The bond market improved in price again this week " but mostly on Friday.

The yield curve turned even flatter, indicating that bond traders are saying the economy is not improving, but in fact is worsening. A mistake in the bond table makes it appear that the whole curve shifted down.

I don't trust the data. The 3 month T-Bill yield increased from 4.90 pct to 4.92 (despite what the table in Yahoo Finance says). That was too important a data point to just somehow be an honest mistake.

This week, 30-year Treasury bonds moved down in yield -3 basis points (bp) from 5.09 pct to 5.06. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped - bp from 5.04 pct to 4.99; the 5-year Treasuries dipped -6 bp from 4.98 pct to 4.92, and the 2-year yields dipped 10 bp from 5.07 pct to 4.97.

The point to watch is that the yield spread between the 30-year and the 3-month Treasury paper has fallen from +123 bp since Week #30 a year ago to just +14 bp today, for a net change of -109 bp.

The 30-year bond yield has increased +60 bp from 4.46 pct to 5.06 pct, while the Treasury Bill yield has jumped +169 bp from 3.23 pct to 4.92 pct.

I believe that the normal spread in a healthy economy should be about +300 bp, which would mean that if the T-Bill rates were 4.92 pct (as they are today), then the long-term bond rate should be at about 7.92 pct, not the measly 5.06 pct being paid today.

But if rates jumped that high, reflecting the true risks in an expanding and inflationary economy, the bond market would have crashed, as well as the real estate market.

So, the Treasury must print more money (which ends up in inflation) and the Fed must lift short rates to put downward pressure on that inflation.

Hence we are in a tough spot. The U.S. Administration has to keep printing or stop spending or start taxing in order to meet its financial obligations. The Fed has to raise rates, but can only go so far without halting economic growth, or worse.

So these inflation-fighters are also inflation-makers, and the fighters have one hand tied up. Now that the economy is slowing, the Fed is hoping that commodity prices will drop so they can start to lower the short rates.

The problem is that the Fed doesn't control the global economy. There is this country called China that is growing at a double-digit pace, which ensures demand for commodities.

That's why you see the Administration and the Fed both imploring the Chinese authorities to raise the Yuan. They aren't so concerned about the Yuan:Dollar rate " it'll just make it harder for Americans to buy goods from China " but they want the Yuan to lift (on its own) so that the Chinese economy stalls or slows to a normal pace of say +4 pct or +5 pct.

Until the Chinese take interest in a global economy, I can't see that the U.S. bond market is going to be a healthy one. That's why I continue to say that there has to be a G-20 agreement on currencies before the world of economics gets back to normal health.

If anybody knows when that is going to happen, please call me.

Interest rates and bond yields.

Weekly data charts:

Daily data charts:

Hourly data charts:

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.92	4.95	4.93	4.85
6 Month	4.93	4.96	5.02	5.08
2 Year	4.97	5.06	5.07	5.28
3 Year	4.93	5.00	5.02	5.25
5 Year	4.92	4.97	4.98	5.23
10 Year	4.99	5.03	5.04	5.24
30 Year	5.06	5.10	5.09	5.28

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.66	3.68	3.69	3.87
2yr AAA	3.67	3.71	3.72	3.81
2yr A	3.74	3.79	3.81	3.85
5yr AAA	3.76	3.79	3.82	3.95
5yr AA	3.78	3.81	3.84	3.96
5yr A	3.78	3.81	3.86	3.97
10yr AAA	3.99	4.01	4.03	4.22
10yr AA	3.97	3.98	4.01	4.22
10yr A	4.09	4.14	4.16	4.24
20yr AAA	4.37	4.38	4.39	4.64
20yr AA	4.35	4.37	4.38	4.65
20yr A	4.55	4.55	4.55	4.69

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	5.40	5.48	5.50	5.69
2yr A	5.47	5.55	5.57	5.75
5yr AAA	5.47	5.53	5.52	5.75
5yr AA	5.54	5.58	5.60	5.86
5yr A	5.63	5.68	5.68	5.91
10yr AAA	5.85	5.84	5.79	5.99
10yr AA	5.78	5.83	5.83	6.09
10yr A	5.92	5.98	5.99	6.21
20yr AAA	6.11	6.06	6.11	6.28
20yr AA	6.33	6.32	6.30	6.46
20yr A	6.36	6.32	6.31	6.53

Interest rates and bond yields.

---

The action in the longer bonds continues to say to me that quite possibly the Fed will pause for one meeting at least.

The rally this week in the equity market could also be a telling sign because, while the bonds did ok, the techs and oils did much better.

---

US Bond Funds -- Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

IEF Monthly data series chart:

TLT Monthly data series chart:

AGG Monthly data series chart:

LQD Monthly data series chart:

TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Hourly Data Charts

SHY Hourly data series chart:

IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

The consumer loan group (CFC, FNM and FRE) had a split result this week. Fannie and Freddie zoomed, while Countrywide took a hit of -6.67 pct, which included a rally on Friday of +3.94 pct, so maybe the worst is over.

Generally, the interest-sensitives fared well.

Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FNM	49.03	1.42	2.98%	2.81%	4.12%	1.60%	0.59%	-3.10%	-15.32%	-14.43%
FRE	58.37	1.22	2.13%	1.89%	4.61%	2.22%	-10.61%	-4.41%	-14.06%	-9.87%
TIP	100.55	0.30	0.30%	0.79%	0.97%	1.52%	-2.42%	0.65%	-1.92%	-3.52%
IEF	81.29	0.29	0.36%	0.61%	0.81%	1.52%	-3.11%	0.61%	-2.51%	-4.71%
AGG	98.52	0.21	0.21%	0.51%	0.65%	1.10%	-2.11%	-0.03%	-1.97%	-3.70%
TLT	85.70	0.49	0.58%	0.42%	0.80%	2.54%	-6.62%	1.83%	-5.31%	-8.87%
SHY	79.93	0.10	0.13%	0.28%	0.43%	0.39%	-0.49%	0.04%	-0.47%	-1.08%
CFC	36.40	1.38	3.94%	-6.67%	-1.14%	-4.39%	4.12%	-10.48%	7.06%	0.36%

Consumer Finance -USA -- Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Daily Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA -- Hourly Data Charts

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Commodities:

The $CRB rally of recent weeks was smashed a week ago, going down -4.93 pct. But this week $CRB rallied a bit (+1.24 pct). It would have gone higher except that Crude Oil sold off.

A week ago I wrote: "The technical support of the 40-week Moving Average (335.39) is still holding up." His week $CRB closed at 343.83, and the 40-Week MA moved up a bit to 336.12.

Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Following a week where $WTIC (near oil futures) was down sharply -5.44 pct, this week, $WTIC dropped -1.60 pct as well. This week $WTIC closed at 73.24.

As I say, "Having oil stay below 75 will be important to avoid a hard economic landing in the U.S., which is not as well prepared for high oil prices as say Europe with its smaller cars and shorter travel distances."

Weekly Crude Oil:

Daily Crude Oil:

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Gold:

Following a week where $GOLD dropped -41.46, which was a loss of -6.24 pct W/W, this week $GOLD rallied +1.87 pct, which is a gain of 11.67 per ounce.

Last week I wrote: "In any case, we traders have to deal with the reality that the precious metals complex (gold, silver, platinum and palladium) is trading under the moving averages, which is a negative technical indicator."

The charts clearly show the long 40-week MA support has not been broken. I was referring to the 50-Day MA even though I wrote "long-term". Today, for me and gold, seven days is long-term!

Today the charts are looking strong. I think the rally that started Wednesday morning will pick up.

Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

---

$SILVER gained 49 cents an oz to 11.36, which is a gain of +4.54 pct that followed a week that had dropped -5.32 pct.

A week ago I wrote: "The 50-day MA is 11.56. The silver producers are getting hammered as well. But on the Daily data chart, $SILVER is forming an interesting wedge, which I think is more likely to break out on the upside. You'll see the same for $GOLD, and I think these contracts will all rally at the same time, and this time the miners will join them. The other side of the coin I don't want to look at."

On Wednesday morning I issued a Buy alert on Silver (as my proxy for the precious metals complex).

Given that the precious metals started to rally that half-hour, I'd say I made an accurate (and bold) call.

For the whole week, this group, including the silver bullion ETF, rallied by +9.6 pct. I haven't figured out what the results were following my alert at 10:23am on Wed., but I'm sure it was well over +12 pct. :-)

Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT closed up +1.08 pct W/W to 1233.70, which is now right at the 50-day MA (1233.91).

The Silver and gold may help pull it up.

Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Platinum metal index.

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$PALL gained +0.89 pct W/W, but that includes a loss of -1.94 pct on Friday to close at 315.96. The 50-day MA is 328.85, while the longer and more important 40-week MA is at 307.87.

A week ago, in the face of a thrashing in the market for the whole precious metals complex, I wrote: "At the end of the day " say a year from now " I expect the entire precious metals group to be +30 pct higher. $SILVER will exceed that because, as I say, there are a lot of Silver Crazies out there who are convinced they'll see $20 before they ever see $7 again."

Then on Wednesday, I saw the first move in Silver.

Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Palladium metal index.

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A week ago, $COPPER plunged -10.49 pct, which was a loss of 38.95 on the contracts. This week $COPPER jumped back +6.80 pct to close at 354.90 in some of the most volatile trading seen in years. As I say, these are markets that day traders enjoy whereas the general public hates them.

I remain more cautious on copper than gold and silver.

Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BVN	28.97	0.47	1.65%	13.25%	10.53%	9.82%	-2.00%	-4.67%	6.47%	24.82%
GLG	36.88	1.42	4.00%	10.85%	-0.73%	-0.62%	23.97%	-6.04%	22.69%	109.78%
AEM	35.69	1.83	5.40%	10.70%	2.71%	12.09%	61.93%	-3.17%	55.78%	191.58%
KGC	11.54	0.31	2.76%	9.59%	2.40%	11.71%	16.68%	-5.80%	6.36%	102.46%
GG	29.29	1.11	3.94%	9.13%	-1.65%	-0.48%	21.03%	-16.60%	13.66%	82.95%
ABX	30.53	0.93	3.14%	7.96%	0.63%	4.27%	5.93%	0.16%	1.94%	25.33%
LIHRY	42.94	1.30	3.12%	6.00%	-6.20%	1.11%	23.82%	-14.53%	14.23%	124.58%
MDG	27.40	1.19	4.54%	3.51%	-9.24%	-12.96%	14.36%	-15.69%	5.47%	50.47%
GFI	21.19	0.74	3.62%	2.81%	-8.43%	-5.82%	9.96%	-16.61%	-2.62%	97.48%
NEM	51.52	0.99	1.96%	1.62%	-6.26%	-1.28%	-9.84%	-11.72%	-12.97%	35.76%

The $XAU (Goldminer futures index), the U.S.-listed goldminers ETF (GDX), and the Toronto goldminer index ETF (XGD) were up +6.13 pct, +8.29 pct and +8.51 pct respectively. A week earlier these indexes were down -8.00 pct, -7.90 pct and -7.42 pct respectively.

I believe the recovery has just started, although the sharp rally in silver after my Buy alert has cooled some for the bullion. Thankfully, we are happy that the miners were all strong through Friday, with $XAU, DGX and XGD (Toronto) going up +3.18 pct, +3.41 pct and +2.94 pct respectively that day.

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY GLG KGC BVN
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO PAAS GOLD CDE GRS
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

CBJ SSRI RGLD SIL NG KRY HL TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG GRZ
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW WTZ MGN

15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

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Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

The U.S. goldminer share trust ETF trades under the ticker symbol GDX.

GDX this week was up +8.29 pct W/W to close at $38.78. On Friday, it rallied +3.41 pct.

I like GDX because it is comprised of so many junior and mid-sized gold and silver miners. Any negative surprise with one is factored into the average price. For most people I'd say this is the way to trade the precious metals in the rallies. Of course, during the pull-backs, the gold and silver bullion ETF's (GLD and IAU for gold and SLV for silver) will fall less, so they are the more conservative play.

Re the Crystallex (KRY) story: as you know my associate (a world class mining analyst) and I interviewed the CEO. We were impressed. I'd like to be in a position of writing up our report except I need the technical input and judgment of my associate, and he has been unavailable. True to form, he now owns a zinc company and has spent the past couple weeks raising financing for it. I hope he can soon get back to the KRY as well as the Aurelian, the Guyana Goldfields and the U.S. Gold Corp studies I'd like to do.

In any event, Crystallex just completed a significant financing. I expect Venezuela to issue the mining permit any day now. And when that happens, KRY will take off.

As a further thought on Crystallex, I haven't followed the musings of James Cramer on this company, but I now, having heard the full story, believe that Cramer was right to push the stock. He had done his research. I just think he picked a bad time to unveil the story " just as country risk including stuff in Venezuela was going down. And then I happened to jump on with a negative alert that was based on some old filings. When I reviewed management " a forthright and highly experienced guy " and looked at the latest filings, I changed my opinion.

Just thought you'd like to know.

Having said that, I know the deal is hinged on the approval of the State mining officials. Now that particular state is the one in Venezuela that is most expert in mining and most dependent on miners working the mines. I believe the permit will be issued. Moreover this is a huge mineral resource that I believe will be expanded in total reserves and in production output that is greater than presently planned by the company.

As a matter of putting a price on it, without having the benefit of financial models at hand, I take a stab at $13 or more, given the permit is received.

Here are the U.S. Goldminer ETF (GDX) index Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

GDX Weekly data:

GDX Daily data:

GDX Hourly data:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminer iUnits S&P/TSX Capped Gold Index ETF trades under the ticker symbol TSE:XGD.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

XGD Weekly data:

XGD Daily data:

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Forex:

The $USD lost ground again this week, but most f the loss was on Friday.

The $USD dropped -0.56 pct W/W, which included a loss of -0.49 pct on Friday, to close at 85.44. It's going my way.

A week ago, I wrote: "No, I'm not buying the prognostications of the reverse-head-and-shoulder crowd. I think there are many reasons (not stories) for the $USD to tank."

Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

The Euro (priced in USD) rallied an equivalent amount to the decline in the $USD this week. The $XEU rose +0.56 pct W/W.

Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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Weekly British Pound Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

The British Pound gained +0.36 pct W/W to close at 185.23. But the gain was entirely made up and more by the +0.47 pct gain in the Pond on Friday.

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Weekly Japanesse Yen Index:

Daily Japanesse Yen Index:

The Japanese Yen strengthened +1.29 pct against the USD to close at 87.12. Friday, the Yen jumped +1.02 pct, which is a huge one-day move. That move against the USD explains the big jump in the miners share prices on Friday.

---

Weekly Canadian Dollar Index:

Daily British Pound Index:

The Canadian Dollar also rallied against the USD, going up +0.61 pct W/W to close at 88.40. The entire gain was made on Friday.

These moves against the U.S. Dollar are clear indications to me that the miners have to be supported here, and ought to rally big.

---

International Equities:

International equity markets this week were on the run " straight up. The strength that was seen in U.S. equity markets was surpassed by the moves made in international markets.

Some are now referring to this as a Bull market for sure. I don't think so. I think it is a corrective rally in a Bear market brought about by a flooding of liquidity.

Part of the reason for the enthusiasm for equities could be that the Friday media conference of Pres. Bush and Prime Minister (UK) Blair was a precursor to Mid East peace or something of that sort. But the international markets were on the run well before those two leaders spoke.

Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TRF	68.74	0.89	1.31%	7.66%	7.11%	0.64%	27.30%	-22.20%	3.76%	59.01%
EWZ	39.68	0.52	1.33%	6.90%	6.81%	2.80%	13.92%	-10.33%	-1.59%	56.04%
EWJ	13.58	0.36	2.72%	6.34%	5.68%	0.37%	-2.65%	-8.24%	-3.96%	31.72%
IFN	41.71	0.61	1.48%	5.38%	2.99%	-12.59%	1.07%	-24.58%	-15.14%	20.06%
IEV	93.30	1.54	1.68%	5.03%	6.39%	3.28%	11.78%	-0.19%	9.44%	20.25%
EWU	21.57	0.28	1.32%	4.91%	5.63%	3.35%	12.58%	0.56%	9.05%	18.58%
FXI	79.35	0.95	1.21%	4.82%	6.51%	2.78%	25.97%	0.95%	10.39%	28.88%
EWC	23.79	0.29	1.23%	4.07%	1.97%	1.02%	5.97%	-4.30%	1.49%	23.01%
QQQQ	37.11	0.76	2.09%	3.95%	3.26%	-4.75%	-10.17%	-11.33%	-11.87%	-7.02%
SPY	127.98	1.27	1.00%	3.25%	3.61%	0.56%	1.01%	-2.65%	-0.44%	2.74%

The big moves internationally came from Russia (+7.66 pct), Japan (+6.34 pct) and India (+5.38 pct). I wonder how much short covering was involved.

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

The Japanese equity market ETF (EWJ, priced in USD), closed at 13.58, up +6.34 pct.

I am surprised by the extent of the rally, not just in Japan, but elsewhere around the world.

However, my views have not changed: "The Japanese economy is not what it is cracked up to be in the North American Media. There are issues of concern such as the Bank of Japan rate increases that have started, and rising costs, and concerns of a falling USD and slowing economy and what impact that will have on exporters."

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWJ Monthly data:

EWJ Weekly data:

EWJ Daily data:

EWJ Hourly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

EWU (priced in USD) was up this week +4.91 pct, closing at 21.57.

"I still ask: Any bets for how quickly it becomes a teen?" Well, 22 has to be a tough number to crack. We shall soon see.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWU Monthly data:

EWU Weekly data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Hourly data:

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Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

The EWC (Canada's equity market ETF that trades in the U.S. in USD) was up +4.07 pct W/W to 23.79.

Shocked? You bet.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWC Monthly data:

EWC Weekly data:

EWC Daily data:

EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

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U.S. Equities:

Just two weeks ago, the broad U.S. market suffered its worst week for a couple years. This was clearly one of the best. Stand-off.

The Dow 30 Industrials rose +3.24 pct, the S&P 500 +3.08 pct, the Naz +3.65 pct and the Russell small cap index +4.18 pct.

I'm glad you were there with the leaders " techs and precious metals " but I sense that I may have missed some very important trades in the other sectors, including Oil.

But a week ago I knew the market was roiled and about to do something big. I wrote: "The cross-currents in the market this week were significant. As I wrote earlier, this was not a week to try to determine any possible change in strategy or tactics. It was a week where more data is needed."

The data we got was not what I entirely expected; however I did the techs and precious metals for a short-term trade, and now I have to look for an exit point. I don't think with the case I have made that stock prices are going to new and all-time record highs. In fact I think this week was just another correction in a Bear market.

I would be looking to sell into strength.

Here is the Monthly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

For the Dow 30 this week, there were 28 component stocks up and 2 (MMM and BA) down. But the losers almost were winners. A couple pennies more and this would have been a week for the record book with all 30 Dow stocks up.

The best were General Motors (GE), Merck (MRK), AT&T (T) and Pfizer (PFE).

There were nine of the Dow 30 stocks up more than +5.0 percent. Wow.

Now the bullish sentiment has crept back into the market, it will be easier for the stock distributors to distribute.

Ever hear of a seller's market in real estate? That's when the buyers line up " like pushing all those Dow stocks up +5.0 pct or more in a week. That's like unreal. Are people thinking they have to catch a train?

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GM	32.35	0.24	0.75%	11.63%	17.76%	17.89%	71.16%	41.39%	35.92%	-13.78%
MRK	41.12	0.14	0.34%	10.06%	13.75%	14.57%	25.56%	19.47%	18.50%	31.42%
T	30.06	0.38	1.28%	9.95%	13.09%	8.52%	21.65%	14.69%	16.11%	21.55%
PFE	26.11	0.46	1.79%	9.57%	16.51%	12.35%	9.80%	3.08%	0.46%	-2.47%
INTC	18.18	0.71	4.06%	6.01%	1.68%	-5.90%	-28.90%	-9.01%	-16.11%	-33.50%
VZ	33.73	0.41	1.23%	5.84%	6.67%	1.29%	11.03%	2.12%	4.95%	-2.68%
HON	38.26	0.28	0.74%	5.66%	3.38%	-4.25%	2.14%	-9.98%	1.19%	-1.87%
JPM	45.48	0.78	1.74%	5.40%	11.23%	6.56%	13.16%	0.22%	14.42%	28.26%
HPQ	32.11	-0.08	-0.25%	5.21%	4.39%	0.25%	11.61%	-1.11%	2.62%	31.11%
XOM	67.00	0.53	0.80%	4.80%	3.24%	7.42%	14.59%	6.21%	9.32%	11.67%
DIS	29.70	0.49	1.68%	4.32%	4.25%	-0.60%	21.72%	6.22%	18.42%	14.45%
CAT	71.21	0.49	0.69%	4.18%	2.92%	-4.29%	23.20%	-5.98%	5.45%	30.78%
UTX	62.15	0.52	0.84%	3.67%	5.68%	-1.80%	9.94%	-1.05%	5.79%	21.03%
AXP	52.19	0.90	1.75%	3.10%	1.79%	-3.15%	-0.74%	-3.01%	-2.08%	-5.91%
C	48.33	1.02	2.16%	2.98%	1.58%	-1.08%	-1.95%	-3.24%	3.12%	10.19%
AIG	60.90	0.50	0.83%	2.94%	5.44%	2.75%	-12.53%	-6.67%	-8.63%	0.28%
IBM	76.96	0.81	1.06%	2.81%	4.61%	-0.81%	-6.21%	-6.53%	-5.01%	-8.16%
GE	33.02	0.37	1.13%	2.39%	2.83%	-0.75%	-6.64%	-4.54%	0.21%	-5.33%
HD	34.59	0.57	1.68%	2.19%	2.22%	-5.13%	-16.13%	-13.37%	-13.52%	-21.15%
JNJ	62.92	0.36	0.58%	1.93%	4.07%	5.06%	2.09%	7.35%	7.17%	-2.80%
MCD	35.29	0.56	1.61%	1.70%	6.81%	5.15%	5.28%	2.08%	0.68%	16.55%
WMT	44.46	0.93	2.14%	1.69%	3.28%	-8.73%	-3.83%	-1.27%	-3.01%	-10.76%
MSFT	24.25	0.38	1.59%	1.59%	8.79%	3.32%	-9.65%	0.41%	-12.74%	-5.83%
KO	44.52	0.21	0.47%	1.41%	4.38%	3.39%	8.85%	6.10%	6.08%	0.29%
PG	56.81	0.37	0.66%	1.32%	2.14%	-0.32%	-3.35%	-2.41%	-4.90%	1.77%
MO	80.69	0.82	1.03%	1.28%	4.26%	9.20%	7.62%	10.29%	7.98%	20.24%
AA	29.73	0.41	1.40%	0.58%	-3.44%	-6.80%	-0.57%	-11.99%	-5.02%	4.06%
DD	40.14	0.37	0.93%	0.32%	1.18%	-3.35%	-6.78%	-8.98%	0.78%	-4.27%
BA	78.91	0.20	0.25%	-0.21%	2.15%	-4.93%	12.18%	-5.44%	15.10%	19.56%
MMM	70.52	0.77	1.10%	-0.28%	-0.98%	-13.10%	-10.86%	-17.45%	-2.93%	-5.60%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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This week, Value Line reported on three Dow 30 companies: CAT, HON and (Cara 100) UTX. United Technologies is on my Cara 100 list. It's got a lot in common with today's market: elevator up; elevator down.

United Technologies owns Otis Elevator as well as a lot of stuff used in warfare. It's a well-run company. The stock ($62.15) could take a quick run to test the all-time record high of $66.39 set a few weeks ago. This week's Value Line report ought to be read.

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Alcoa [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(AA: Yahoo Finance file)
(AA: StockChart chart)
(AA: Investertech chart)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AA: Value Line Report Jul. 21: next one is due Oct. 20)

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Altria Group Inc [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MO: Yahoo Finance file)
(MO: StockChart chart)
(MO: Investertech chart)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MO: Value Line Report May 5: next one is due Aug. 4)

---

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American International Group [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AIG: Yahoo Finance file)
(AIG: StockChart chart)
(AIG: Investertech chart)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AIG: Value Line Report May 26: next one is due Aug. 25)

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American Express [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(AXP: Yahoo Finance file)
(AXP: StockChart chart)
(AXP: Investertech chart)
(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)(AXP: ADVFN Financial Data)
(AXP: Value Line Report May 26: next one is due Aug. 25)

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Boeing Co [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(BA: Yahoo Finance file)
(BA: StockChart chart)
(BA: Investertech chart)
(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)(BA: ADVFN Financial Data)
(BA: Value Line Report Jun. 23: next one is due Sep. 22)

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Citigroup [GICS 40, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(C: Yahoo Finance file)
(C: StockChart chart)
(C: Investertech chart)
(C: ADVFN Financial Data)(C: ADVFN Financial Data)
(C: Value Line Report May 26: next one is due Aug. 25)

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Caterpillar [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(CAT: Yahoo Finance file)
(CAT: StockChart chart)
(CAT: Investertech chart)
(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)(CAT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(CAT: Value Line Report Jul. 28: next one is due Oct. 27)

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Dupont [GICS 15, Dow 30]
(DD: Yahoo Finance file)
(DD: StockChart chart)
(DD: Investertech chart)
(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)(DD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DD: Value Line Report Jul. 21: next one is due Oct. 20)

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Disney [GICS 25, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(DIS: Yahoo Finance file)
(DIS: StockChart chart)
(DIS: Investertech chart)
(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)(DIS: ADVFN Financial Data)
(DIS: Value Line Report May 19: next one is due Aug. 18)

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General Electric [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(GE: Yahoo Finance file)
(GE: StockChart chart)
(GE: Investertech chart)
(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)(GE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GE: Value Line Report Jul. 14: next one is due Oct. 13)

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General Motors [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(GM: Yahoo Finance file)
(GM: StockChart chart)
(GM: Investertech chart)
(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)(GM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(GM: Value Line Report Jun. 2: next one is due Sep. 1)

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Home Depot [GICS 25, Dow 30]
(HD: Yahoo Finance file)
(HD: StockChart chart)
(HD: Investertech chart)
(HD: ADVFN Financial Data) (HD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HD: Value Line Report Jul. 7: next one is due Oct. 6)

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Honeywell [GICS 20, Dow 30]
(HON: Yahoo Finance file)
(HON: StockChart chart)
(HON: Investertech chart)
(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)(HON: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HON: Value Line Report Jul. 28: next one is due Oct. 27)

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Hewlett-Packard [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(HPQ: Yahoo Finance file)
(HPQ: StockChart chart)
(HPQ: Investertech chart)
(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)(HPQ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(HPQ: Value Line Report Jul. 14: next one is due Oct. 13)

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IBM [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(IBM: Yahoo Finance file)
(IBM: StockChart chart)
(IBM: Investertech chart)
(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)(IBM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(IBM: Value Line Report Jul. 14: next one is due Oct. 13)

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Intel [GICS 45, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(INTC: Yahoo Finance file)
(INTC: StockChart chart)
(INTC: Investertech chart)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: ADVFN Financial Data)
(INTC: Value Line Report Jul. 14: next one is due Oct. 13)

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Johnson & Johnson [GICS 35, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(JNJ: Yahoo Finance file)
(JNJ: StockChart chart)
(JNJ: Investertech chart)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JNJ: Value Line Report Jun. 2: next one is due Sep. 1)

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JP Morgan [GICS 40, Dow 30]
(JPM: Yahoo Finance file)
(JPM: StockChart chart)
(JPM: Investertech chart)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(JPM: Value Line Report May 26: next one is due Aug. 25)

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Coca Cola [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(KO: Yahoo Finance file)
(KO: StockChart chart)
(KO: Investertech chart)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: ADVFN Financial Data)
(KO: Value Line Report May 5: next one is due Aug. 4)

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McDonalds [GICS 30, Dow 30]
(MCD: Yahoo Finance file)
(MCD: StockChart chart)
(MCD: Investertech chart)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MCD: Value Line Report Jun. 9: next one is due Sep. 8)

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3M Company [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(MMM: Yahoo Finance file)
(MMM: StockChart chart)
(MMM: Investertech chart)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MMM: Value Line Report May 19: next one is due Aug. 18)

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Merck [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(MRK: Yahoo Finance file)
(MRK: StockChart chart)
(MRK: Investertech chart)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MRK: Value Line Report Jul. 21: next one is due Oct. 20)

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Microsoft [GICS 45, Dow 30]
(MSFT: Yahoo Finance file)
(MSFT: StockChart chart)
(MSFT: Investertech chart)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(MSFT: Value Line Report May 26: next one is due Aug. 25)

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Pfizer [GICS 35, Dow 30]
(PFE: Yahoo Finance file)
(PFE: StockChart chart)
(PFE: Investertech chart)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PFE: Value Line Report Jul. 21: next one is due Oct. 20)

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Procter & Gamble Co. [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(PG: Yahoo Finance file)
(PG: StockChart chart)
(PG: Investertech chart)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: ADVFN Financial Data)
(PG: Value Line Report)

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AT&T [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(T: Yahoo Finance file)
(T: StockChart chart)
(T: Investertech chart)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: ADVFN Financial Data)
(T: Value Line Report Jun. 30: next one is due Sep. 29)

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United Technologies [GICS 20, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(UTX: Yahoo Finance file)
(UTX: StockChart chart)
(UTX: Investertech chart)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: ADVFN Financial Data)
(UTX: Value Line Report Jul. 28: next one is due Oct. 27)

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Verizon [GICS 50, Dow 30]
(VZ: Yahoo Finance file)
(VZ: StockChart chart)
(VZ: Investertech chart)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: ADVFN Financial Data)
(VZ: Value Line Report Jun. 30: next one is due Sep. 29)

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Wal-Mart [GICS 30, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(WMT: Yahoo Finance file)
(WMT: StockChart chart)
(WMT: Investertech chart)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: ADVFN Financial Data)
(WMT: Value Line Report May 12: next one is due Aug. 11)

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ExxonMobil [GICS 10, Dow 30, Cara 100]
(XOM: Yahoo Finance file)
(XOM: StockChart chart)
(XOM: Investertech chart)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: ADVFN Financial Data)
(XOM: Value Line Report Jun. 16: next one is due Sep. 15)

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Wrap up:

With errands and odd jobs around my home, this weekend was tough to write a Week In Review.

I need some help gathering data and all. Yesterday I started to compile a list where I think volunteers could help. The first volunteer was my daughter Stefanie who wanted the title Volunteer Co-Ordinator.

Done and done.

BCara@BillCara.com