Why do I think this? It's because bonds also moved up on Thursday (afternoon) and Friday.

Thursday was an All Points Bulletin day: "Buy anything in capital markets, futures, or currencies " anything with a heartbeat." The USD, as everyone knows, has died, and so the only selling action traders took on Thursday was to off the USD.

But you knew that was coming because you read my previous Weeks In Review, right?

So let the good times roll " for two to four weeks at least. Then on August 8 there will be Reckoning Day. Should the Fed raise one more time, and the economy continue to chill, I think that will be lights out for equities...

Ah, but maybe not.

August 8, September 20 and October 24 are the next three dates for FOMC meetings, and there are crucially important mid-term elections coming up.

It used to be that separation existed between the White House and the Fed. In fact the first George Bush to the White House lost his second electoral attempt after he says Greenspan backdoored him. For a most interesting read, I recommend "Maestro" by Bob Woodward.

I think we can all rest assured that the younger Bush has enough markers in hand from Bernanke (from prior to him handing out this plum) to ensure that doesn't happen again.

So the over-extended period of bullishness we now face (note I didn't say Bull Market), caused by excessive money printing, is likely to go on a couple months longer.

I'm expecting another Fed hike of +25 bp on Aug-08 combined with "guidance" that the 18th consecutive rate hike that day is expected to be the last one, whereupon the market will try to stomach the higher interest rate costs one more time. Then the Sept. 20 FOMC decision will be to hold the line.

Following that, there is likely to be a rate cut of 25 bp on Oct. 24, right before the federal elections in the U.S. Of course, by then energy and metals prices will be absolutely soaring, and so Congress will pull their stunt of clamoring for investigations into "gouging" and so forth.

The politicos on the ruling Republican side will hope this action on "our" behalf (lol) will get them re-elected to another majority. Meanwhile costs of living will be rising, and the economy slowing down and the war effort even more saddening, so the public polls will sink even further. The polarization of left and right will escalate into what I perceive wil be the all-time nastiest election campaign in history.

I am not political " not even American " but I see this President's final years to be, let's say, more than challenging. I see the $USD collapsing, and during this period, I believe $GOLD will rise to over $850, possibly over $1,000.

If true, all this was unnecessary and will not be Bernanke's fault. The seeds were sown during 2000, when the Greenspan-led Fed raised too much, and into 2003, when the Fed dropped the rate too low, and kept it too low for too long.

That's what happens when politicians get to control the actions of the Fed. I say eliminate the Fed " put it under the control of Congress " and then blame Congress when they make bad decisions. Vote them out. Why go through the fiction of having politicians controlling the Fed but having politicians also point fingers every time the results turn ugly?

And why have leaks between Fed directors (bankers and gnomes) and their friends. Yes, I have a lot of respect for the individuals involved on these boards, but I have zero faith in human ability to control the thirst for greed when billions, even trillions, are on the line, and those people know tomorrow's news with absolute certainty.

The only check and balance is to have an adversarial political system be responsible for the Fed.

One final point is that Bear Markets (lower highs and lower lows in the intermediate cycle broad market indexes) is an evolving phenomenon. It takes time for the market to play out these cycles. That's why I say you never know for a fact that a Bear Market happens until it happened.

But the key to successful trading is to take all the evidence " from corporate fundamental and quantitative data, the macro-economic environment in which producers, service companies and consumers must operate, as well as the share price technical indicators over the long, intermediate and short run, and you put the package together. You need to project trend.

Success in trading is staying on the right side of trend. Sales people of course will tell you it's picking the right stocks " which conveniently are the ones they have created, are selling, and/or are holding, directly or indirectly, by family or friends.

I say never listen to anybody with a vested interest if you are seeking independent and objective advice. You will never get it.

But the job of the sales side is also to give you information, education and facilitation, so that when you make up your own mind as to what you need and want, hopefully you and the sell side have a good enough relationship to do business.

I have never said that you should never use the sell-side. I have stopped short by saying that the buy-side needs to pressure legislators to change the legislation favoring financial services companies to the unfair advantage that they know in advance what you are going to trade and how you are going to trade, and then can trade against you. That is a ludicrously unfair relationship, and unless it stops, the capital markets are headed for systemic failure. Doomed.

I don't think 98 pct of the sell side wants that either. Let's face it; they need jobs.

It's just the jerks who run the industry, who run the exchanges and who pay off the politicians and regulators to ensure the status quo that are the problem. As this Bear Market plays out, we need a change of thinking in Washington.

Now, let's see how this week went in the capital markets.

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Global Market Summary

International Equities: The equity markets of emerging economies and advanced economies all lifted off like a rocket this week.

U.S. Equities : Table 13 below shows the excellent performance from Thursday morning this week for the broad U.S. equity markets pales by comparison to the international markets. But, up is up, even if most of the U.S. techs are laggards.

Dow 30 : 21 up -- 9 down. Another intermediate leg up started on Thursday morning (either anticipating or being tipped in advance of the FOMC decision), but I hold to the notion the Bear started on May 10, and that new cycle highs will not be set in this rally. It is a rally where stocks will mostly be distributed.

U.S. Sector ETFs: Ten of 10 ETF's I track were up, which means that those fleeing the bear, stopped and ran back for a photo op as the bear stopped lunching. Wall Street is sucking the public back in " did you note the evening "Town Hall" show this week by CNBC. Everything was rosy, and then the Fed did their part, and kaboom there were buyers on Thursday. I call it a Sucker Rally, but it is a rally, without doubt.

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #1 (+6.31 pct); Forget the softening economy: traders loved that higher Fed rate (lol)
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #2 (+3.75 pct); Forget the "hawkish" Fed: traders loved miners
20: Industrials (XLI): #6 (+1.71); GE tanked again, as did BA
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #8 (+1.55 pct); Rally laggard
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #7 (+1.64 pct); Another rally laggard
35: Healthcare (IYH): #10 (+1.09 pct); AET+UNH down after being up, down, up, down
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #4 (+2.28 pct); More blow-off rally to come
45: Tech (SMH chips): #9 (+1.39 pct); Inteller jacked it up from #10
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): #3 (+3.05 pct); Quiet fear seeks dividends
55: Utilities (XLU): #5 (+1.99 pct); Bonds were up, hooray!

Bonds: This week yields dropped from 7 to 14 basis points as bond prices rallied. There was almost a "Buy Alert" but for the fact the bonds did not quite drop down to my Accumulation Zone. I think this was short-covering only.

Commodities: $CRB was up +3.39 pct W/W as technical support levels held up, and the USD plunged.

Oil & Gas: The $WTIC futures jumped +4.09 pct W/W, rallying right through technical resistance as the $USD fell harder than anticipated (related to Fed Day). I thought the price in short run might have fallen back to mid-60's before rallying, but $USD fell -2.0 pct this week.

Gold: Two weeks ago I wrote: "Ah, but the good news is they are on the way back." This week $GOLD jumped a further $32.25 (+5.5 pct), taking it to a higher trading range.

Goldminers: The $XAU (U.S. listed gold and silver miners) continued strong, gaining +7.6 pct W/W. The XGD (TSX gold miner ETF) was up +4.6 pct.

Forex: The $USD dropped like a stone in a sea of liquidity. That's what happens when money, money, money is being printed. Donald Trump needs it to keep building skyscraper office and residential towers. I'm sure he is a happier man at the end of this week.

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Sector ETF:

I hold to my opinion that: "I have opined that there will not be a sustainable Bull rally unless and until both Tech and Financials join in." This week Tech (semiconductors SMH) was second worst, and that says it all.

But with the market's understanding that U.S. money supply is growing, and international central banks holding the line on rate hikes, traders this week decided to buy up the broad market sectors (e.g., 10 of 10 are up). Accordingly, Energy (GICS Sector 10) and Basic Materials (GICS Sector 15) were numbers 1 and 2 best respectively.

For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds (ETF's). The table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLE	56.75	0.19	0.34%	6.31%	6.87%	0.39%	7.69%	2.86%	12.80%	27.61%
XLB	32.10	0.15	0.47%	3.75%	4.94%	-2.16%	3.82%	-1.71%	6.01%	18.28%
IYZ	25.65	0.34	1.34%	3.05%	1.75%	1.06%	11.67%	-0.97%	12.20%	9.62%
XLF	32.34	-0.09	-0.28%	2.28%	1.63%	-2.74%	0.43%	-0.61%	2.12%	9.74%
XLU	32.29	0.09	0.28%	1.99%	0.56%	-0.77%	0.91%	3.96%	2.87%	2.31%
XLI	33.81	-0.03	-0.09%	1.71%	1.65%	-1.54%	6.89%	0.00%	7.61%	15.08%
XLP	24.19	-0.11	-0.45%	1.64%	1.85%	0.96%	3.20%	2.11%	3.86%	6.33%
XLY	33.39	0.02	0.06%	1.55%	0.72%	-1.71%	1.18%	-1.10%	2.27%	1.86%
SMH	32.91	-0.16	-0.48%	1.39%	-0.36%	-4.88%	-13.21%	-10.42%	-10.18%	-2.26%
IYH	60.43	0.43	0.72%	1.09%	0.07%	-1.79%	-5.03%	-5.67%	-4.11%	-1.10%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF's " up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's. I do that frequently.

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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When you look through these Hourly data charts you will note that Thursday was a good week.

No, actually Thursday was a great week.

Technically speaking, it appears the U.S. market is good to go for the next few weeks, heading into August 8. Isn't it awful when capital markets around the world are just waiting for the Fed to do its thing?

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Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

This week, XLE gained +6.31 pct to 56.75.

For all that CNBC pumps the financials and techs, it is the oils (XLE) and basic materials (XLB) that are the big gainers over the past year, up +27.6 pct and +18.3 pct respectively, while the financials (XLF) are up +9.7 pct and the semi-conductor tech (SMH) are down -2.3 pct over 12 months.

As I have written in the past, the simple reason is that traders anticipate further relaxation of U.S. monetary policy and a lower $USD despite all the words that the Administration and Fed are inflation hawks.

Do you recall how there was a complete and total denial of inflation by the Administration, the Fed and Wall Street, and now they are all telling you it is the biggest worry traders face. And they wonder why they lack credibility.

I say, ignore the stories; focus on the trends and cycles of prices, and the quality of the companies whose shares you are holding.

Here's the XLE Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
SU	81.01	0.73	0.91%	10.26%	11.25%	-1.67%	23.62%	3.46%	28.32%	71.20%
IMO	36.51	0.70	1.95%	9.41%	9.05%	-3.13%	-64.89%	-66.43%	-63.34%	-56.18%
PBR	89.31	1.42	1.62%	8.99%	12.95%	-0.01%	19.53%	3.42%	25.31%	71.32%
STO	28.52	-0.40	-1.38%	7.95%	9.69%	-4.49%	18.19%	-0.90%	24.22%	40.49%
CVX	62.06	-0.39	-0.62%	5.71%	5.71%	2.16%	5.04%	6.07%	9.32%	10.98%
CEO	80.38	-0.41	-0.51%	5.67%	5.47%	4.93%	16.17%	2.26%	18.26%	35.50%
XOM	61.35	-1.02	-1.64%	5.59%	4.34%	-0.49%	4.93%	0.38%	9.22%	6.75%
TOT	65.52	1.37	2.14%	5.10%	7.52%	-0.70%	-49.63%	-50.64%	-48.16%	-43.93%
ECA	52.64	-0.32	-0.60%	4.65%	8.02%	1.21%	12.72%	8.99%	16.56%	32.96%

The major Canadian oil sands players were up about +10.0 pct this week. Wow.

Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) was #2 best sector performer this week -- up +3.75 pct.

This was largely a metals rally " partly to do with mergers and acquisitions and partly metals prices related. Precious metals and copper all were much higher in price W/W.

Here's the XLB Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
N	65.90	0.58	0.89%	13.11%	10.57%	-0.51%	52.30%	28.44%	51.25%	74.57%
GGB	14.91	0.03	0.20%	11.19%	13.64%	1.08%	-14.36%	-33.05%	-10.61%	53.24%
PKX	66.90	-0.65	-0.96%	9.47%	10.95%	2.56%	33.13%	5.82%	35.12%	52.15%
RIO	24.04	0.44	1.86%	9.22%	10.33%	1.43%	11.81%	-0.37%	16.87%	64.21%
AA	32.36	0.46	1.44%	7.22%	7.54%	-0.64%	8.23%	5.34%	9.44%	23.84%
BHP	43.07	0.73	1.72%	6.32%	7.92%	0.51%	23.06%	7.09%	28.87%	57.77%
ACH	74.70	-1.05	-1.39%	5.69%	6.71%	-3.39%	-5.92%	-28.82%	-2.15%	35.89%
NUE	54.25	-0.61	-1.11%	5.61%	7.32%	0.65%	56.43%	1.73%	62.62%	137.83%
RTP	209.71	-0.49	-0.23%	1.74%	4.47%	-3.45%	11.07%	0.59%	14.73%	72.01%
PD	82.16	0.16	0.20%	-0.95%	2.57%	-5.50%	10.03%	0.83%	14.22%	77.64%

Phelps Dodge was not my favorite after making a misguided play to leverage their balance sheet further to take over Canada's Inco and Falco at a ridiculously high price. I still don't see that deal going ahead.

I'm thinking Xstrata wins the Falconbridge, and then the price of Inco falls to a price point that prudently managed Teck-Cominco steps in and makes the buy. Let's see how long the Zug metal men allow the South African Brascan Boys to stick around. Now that's something to wait for.

Btw, Teck-Cominco was NYSE-listed this week as TCK. So it's going onto the Cara 100 in place of Phelps Dodge.

But how about those goldminers? Over the past two weeks, Goldfields was up +26.6 pct, Glamis was up +19.8 pct, and Agnico-Eagle was up +18.8 pct.

And Goldfields was the winner of the group again this week, up +12.3 pct. Even the two largest gold producers zoomed. Newmont was up +6.1 pct and Barrick +5.0 pct this week.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The ETF for the Industrials and Transport sector, aka capital goods producers, (XLI) was up +1.71 pct W/W to 33.81.

Here's the XLI Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CBE	92.92	0.46	0.50%	6.13%	7.71%	4.90%	25.77%	7.19%	27.29%	45.41%
ERJ	36.47	0.77	2.16%	5.80%	3.99%	5.07%	-7.11%	-2.15%	-6.73%	10.28%
CAT	74.48	0.08	0.11%	3.24%	5.57%	2.29%	28.86%	2.87%	28.93%	56.31%
TYC	27.50	0.22	0.81%	2.69%	2.34%	0.00%	-7.22%	0.70%	-4.71%	-5.82%
HON	40.30	0.34	0.85%	2.52%	3.39%	-2.18%	7.58%	-4.82%	8.19%	10.02%
UTX	63.42	0.13	0.21%	1.83%	2.70%	0.62%	12.19%	9.31%	13.43%	23.51%
MMM	80.77	-0.38	-0.47%	1.06%	0.32%	-4.73%	2.10%	5.55%	4.22%	11.72%
GE	32.96	-0.31	-0.93%	-0.60%	-2.86%	-4.90%	-6.81%	-4.88%	-5.96%	-4.88%
BA	81.91	-1.09	-1.31%	-1.77%	-4.24%	-2.26%	16.45%	4.45%	16.61%	24.11%

In a Bull market, GE is one of the Generals (i.e., leaders); but the stock was down this week again, along with Boeing. BA dropped -1.8 pct W/W to $81.91, but is still up +16.5 pct in the 1H06.

With a market cap of over $350 billion, GE is almost as big as #1 Exxon Mobil (XOM: $370 billion), and often times is the largest cap on the board. So when typical core portfolio holding GE is down (almost -5.0 pct over the past year), portfolio performance suffers.

Yes, it is a strange bull market when GE and the U.S. consumer cyclicals and WMT are flat to down for so long.

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was up +1.55 pct W/W to 33.39.

Still, the consumer group (discretionary, staples, health) were ranked #8, 7 and 10 respectively in performance this week. The broad market may have rallied, but this segment was lagging the others.

Here's the XLY Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TM	104.59	2.36	2.31%	4.92%	3.89%	-4.53%	-2.12%	-5.05%	-0.03%	46.30%
SBUX	37.76	-0.21	-0.55%	3.45%	3.14%	4.92%	22.32%	0.61%	25.82%	46.19%
DIS	30.00	0.12	0.40%	3.02%	1.87%	-2.02%	22.95%	7.64%	25.16%	19.14%
CCL	41.74	0.67	1.63%	2.33%	3.86%	3.99%	-23.51%	-11.40%	-21.94%	-23.48%
WHR	82.65	0.24	0.29%	1.29%	2.06%	-7.65%	-0.02%	-9.63%	-1.33%	17.89%
JCP	67.51	-0.18	-0.27%	0.01%	2.96%	4.18%	19.59%	10.31%	21.42%	28.39%
BC	33.25	0.90	2.78%	-0.48%	-2.61%	-7.46%	-18.54%	-15.05%	-18.22%	-23.25%
EBAY	29.29	0.03	0.10%	-2.37%	-3.27%	-10.24%	-34.12%	-25.45%	-32.23%	-11.27%
NKE	81.00	0.02	0.02%	-3.98%	-2.59%	-0.97%	-5.76%	-4.71%	-6.67%	-6.47%

Disney (NYSE: DIS) was up +3.0 pct this week and Toyota Motor jumped +4.9 pct. Still, I wouldn't rush into the consumer stocks because I think it's going to be a long hot summer business wise. It was only a week ago that the General Motors CEO said that the sales environment today is "brutal".

And to move cars from inventory, most of the manufacturers are trotting out the employee, friends and family discounts again. That can't be good for profits.

I have to think that corporate profitability for the consumer sector is going to take a hit for the next couple quarters, and, if true, you know what that will mean to share prices.

After this "sucker" rally in the broad market, I think it is time to switch out of high growth stocks and into high dividend payers.

This is also a good time to be watching the market for stocks of high quality companies to be hitting new lows. These will likely be the first to rally in the next bull market.

For some readers, there is a new ETF product you might wish to consider. I wrote about it in 'New index ETF's for short sellers: why? Fri., June 23, 2006, 5:50 AM'

As this blog is a two-way path to education, information and facilitation, I did learn something here. I reconsidered and retracted my "sucker", "dog" and "bow-wow" comments.

A reader sent me this note when I questioned the cost:

"The merit of these ETF's is that I can now short through my retirement plan during market hours instead of through inverse funds at end of day prices. Is that worth 1%? To me it is. I would never use these in my taxable account where I have other options, but my guess is that they will become a valuable tool in many tax deferred accounts that are not permitted to short or sell puts. At certain times, it is much more attractive than simply sitting in cash; I think the demand for the option to short in retirement accounts is huge, if only because of the amount of money in them (personally, my retirement account is about four times the size of my taxable account). I agree this is an expensive option, but I am hopeful that competition will bring the price down. Right now, the ability to hedge a portfolio makes it worthwhile."

So, if, as an when the Bear returns (probably a few weeks), these inverse ETF's might be a suitable trade for some of you at that point.

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was up +1.64 pct W/W to close at 24.19.

Just like the others in the consumer segment, nothing much is happening here.

It's a time to look to scale out of profitable positions unless you see a clear picture of growing revenues and earnings and dividends.

Here's the XLP Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ABV	41.25	0.68	1.68%	8.35%	11.13%	-5.13%	7.03%	-2.07%	8.41%	33.50%
WFMI	64.64	0.32	0.50%	4.31%	3.96%	-1.60%	-16.16%	-3.18%	-16.47%	9.37%
MO	73.43	-0.46	-0.62%	3.06%	3.60%	0.80%	-2.07%	2.38%	-1.73%	13.56%
WAG	44.84	-0.43	-0.95%	2.82%	3.80%	5.13%	-1.21%	3.03%	1.31%	-2.50%
DEO	67.55	0.41	0.61%	1.27%	0.70%	0.31%	13.42%	5.94%	15.87%	13.91%
PEP	60.04	0.54	0.91%	0.92%	0.57%	-1.04%	0.47%	3.32%	1.62%	11.33%
KO	43.02	-0.04	-0.09%	0.63%	-0.44%	-1.98%	5.18%	2.14%	6.72%	3.04%
WMT	48.17	-0.54	-1.11%	0.48%	-0.29%	0.71%	4.20%	1.07%	2.93%	-0.06%
BUD	45.59	-0.14	-0.31%	0.37%	0.15%	-0.07%	4.40%	6.59%	6.12%	-0.35%
PG	55.60	-1.39	-2.44%	-0.23%	1.05%	3.06%	-5.41%	-3.52%	-3.94%	5.40%

Whole Food Markets (WFMI) was finally up. In fact WFMI jumped +4.3 pct to $64.64. I hope the negative lobster story is over. Still, this Cara 100 company has an over-priced stock that is quite vulnerable to a Bear market sell-off.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The healthcare ETF (IYH) was up +1.09 pct W/W to close at 60.43, which was good for worst of the ten ETF's I follow.

Here's the IYH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DNA	81.80	1.67	2.08%	5.94%	3.41%	-0.60%	-12.98%	-2.50%	-11.57%	1.89%
PFE	23.47	0.23	0.99%	3.67%	0.17%	-2.98%	-1.30%	-6.87%	0.64%	-14.90%
GSK	55.80	0.84	1.53%	3.09%	3.64%	-0.34%	9.50%	6.02%	10.54%	15.03%
NVS	53.92	0.51	0.95%	2.45%	2.98%	-4.40%	0.84%	-3.94%	2.74%	13.66%
BMY	25.86	0.16	0.62%	1.37%	2.70%	2.33%	11.27%	3.65%	12.53%	3.52%
AMGN	65.23	0.13	0.20%	0.46%	-2.38%	-5.71%	-18.83%	-10.18%	-17.28%	7.89%
UNH	44.78	-0.23	-0.51%	-0.99%	1.11%	-4.68%	-27.46%	-20.41%	-27.94%	-14.12%
JNJ	59.92	0.03	0.05%	-2.28%	-2.85%	-1.35%	-2.77%	0.96%	-0.30%	-7.82%
AET	39.93	0.69	1.76%	-2.54%	1.78%	-1.58%	-15.10%	-20.12%	-15.31%	-3.57%
BMET	31.29	-0.59	-1.85%	-10.55%	-11.69%	-12.84%	-15.16%	-13.18%	-14.44%	-9.64%

There was quite a rotation within this sector this week. The stocks of a few Cara 100 companies were hammered. Biomet (BMET) plunged -10.6 pct, Aetna (AET) dropped -2.5 pct and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was down -2.3 pct W/W. Pfizer (PFE) was up +3.7 pct and Genentech up +5.9 pct.

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

This week, the Wall Street and Big Media favorite Financial sector ETF XLF was up +2.28 pct to close Friday at 32.34.

Actually, XLF had a spectacular one hour this week; otherwise there was zero to write home about. You'll see that with a quick glance at the Hourly data chart.

The Fed raises the bank rate by +25 bp to a cycle high number and everybody jumps for joy? Now, really, what was going on here to pump the bond market, pump the bank stocks and send Maria Bartiromo and friends into orbit?

A little help from Dino Kos maybe?

I saw a lot of cheerleading this week, and I wish those tapes were on ROBTV, which is a Financial TV Network that responsibly offers Replays. I figure if Talking Heads are going to be Talking, then somebody ought to be archiving.

Then we'd have lots of proof to set up our Wall of Shame.

---

Here's the XLF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
DB	112.50	1.80	1.63%	5.90%	7.71%	-2.36%	13.11%	-2.10%	16.14%	44.42%
MS	63.21	0.67	1.07%	5.88%	10.91%	4.32%	8.14%	-0.64%	0.00%	0.00%
CSR	55.99	0.90	1.63%	4.73%	5.76%	-5.34%	4.95%	0.54%	9.89%	43.05%
UBS	109.70	1.32	1.22%	4.13%	6.67%	-4.95%	11.13%	0.50%	15.29%	40.91%
LEH	65.15	0.57	0.88%	3.89%	2.84%	-3.52%	0.32%	-9.22%	1.67%	31.24%
JPM	42.00	-0.68	-1.59%	2.76%	4.58%	-4.13%	4.50%	1.13%	5.82%	18.91%
HBC	88.35	0.80	0.91%	2.52%	1.46%	0.95%	8.17%	5.18%	9.79%	10.92%
MER	69.56	-0.52	-0.74%	2.29%	3.43%	-4.75%	1.61%	-11.11%	2.70%	26.45%
GS	150.43	-1.77	-1.16%	1.70%	4.47%	-2.38%	16.73%	-4.07%	17.79%	47.45%
C	48.24	-0.62	-1.27%	1.05%	-0.25%	-3.79%	-2.13%	2.03%	-0.60%	4.35%

The Financial sector Bulls were helped for a while at least by the bond market on Thursday and Friday. That's what happens when the Banks are permitted to print a lot more money, and of course it is the reason $GOLD was up $32.25 this week too.

I am surprised that the European banks did so well. Catch up maybe? Maybe they just like holding Euros and Gold?

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

This was another bad week for the semi-conductor industry. SMH was up, but just by +1.39 pct W/W, which put it 9th best performer out of 10. SMH closed Friday at 32.91.

Without that spectacular Thursday, SMH would have been drubbed once again. But things are changing. A week ago I noticed improvement in some of the tech groups, and this week I saw more.

Here's the SMH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
INFY	76.41	1.43	1.91%	6.47%	8.55%	7.00%	-5.02%	0.46%	-5.50%	-1.53%
INTC	19.00	-0.32	-1.66%	5.56%	3.83%	4.22%	-25.69%	-3.55%	-23.88%	-26.98%
SAP	52.52	0.19	0.36%	2.30%	2.84%	-1.91%	14.30%	-2.60%	16.53%	21.29%
QCOM	40.07	-0.47	-1.16%	1.44%	-8.83%	-14.74%	-8.93%	-21.20%	-6.99%	21.39%
CTSH	67.37	-0.04	-0.06%	1.22%	5.89%	7.23%	32.91%	13.09%	34.02%	42.95%
CSCO	19.53	-0.38	-1.91%	-0.41%	-2.25%	-4.45%	11.92%	-11.11%	14.08%	2.36%
ADSK	34.46	-0.01	-0.03%	-0.78%	-6.41%	-5.67%	-19.39%	-9.48%	-19.73%	0.35%
ADBE	30.36	-0.04	-0.13%	-0.78%	4.26%	4.69%	-21.18%	-14.02%	-17.86%	6.12%
SNDK	50.98	-1.39	-2.65%	-1.18%	-5.45%	-7.53%	-24.70%	-13.65%	-18.85%	114.83%
ORCL	14.49	-0.25	-1.70%	-2.75%	2.11%	2.40%	15.00%	5.15%	18.67%	9.77%

A week ago I wrote: "About the rally of a week ago, I wrote: This is bottom fishing. Nothing more. Now I'm not entirely sure. It seems that Oracle, SAP, Adobe and a couple other large software companies are getting pumped up for take-overs, which could have them trading high for a while."

While Oracle and Adobe were off this week, many others had solid gains. Intel (INTC) for example was up to $19.00 (+5.6 pct W/W) and SAP was strong too (up +2.3 pct).

We'll see next week if the techs can follow through. If so, and I think so, the broad market may be in for a good summer rally.

That's not to say it's a Bull market " just a trading rally that is not likely to take the Dow to new cycle highs of 11,643 (May 10). That to the day is when I think the Bear market started. Only time will tell.

"Stockman" seems to agree. He sent along three illustrations that help me make the point. Here is the first one:

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The Telco sector ETF (IYZ) was up +3.05 pct W/W to close at 25.65.

Yes, "this sector has done zip for the past month" and +3.05 pct in a week doesn't impress me. I see the RSI on the Hourly price data is at 91.7 and 72.5 on the Daily data. It hasn't been that high since the start of April (start of the 2nd quarter, whereupon it nose-dived), and so right after the start of 3Q06, I expect much the same.

A week ago I wrote, "All through March, there was a RSI divergence on the Daily data, with a subsequent price peak at the end of March and start of April. I think that the $26.18 at that point will be the 2002-2006 Bull Market cycle high."

You know, the SEC should really look into these quarter-ending window dressings by the big (so far unregulated) hedge funds, which is what I think happened here. With collaboration, those investment managers can pretty much peg a stock where they know it most helps their pay envelope.

In any event, my editorial contribution to the Wall Street Journal at the start of June regarding the need for some extra regulation seems to have hit the mark with legislators.

Now they have to act to clarify the law, making it serve the interests of the People, and not leave it to a tribunal of judges here or there to come up with their own interpretation.

According to a June 23 story by MarketWatch, "the SEC has brought more than 50 cases against the industry since 2000, including Bayou Capital Management and Kirk Wright's International Management Associates. The SEC said investors lost $1 billion in the schemes."

How much money (in the U.S. alone) do scoundrels have to steal from traders in these hedge fund scams before Congress decides to put new laws in place? Two billion, five billion, ten billion?

If you think about this for a moment, you'll realize just how far dummied down the Administration, bankers, gnomes and big media have gotten the rest of America.

The SEC is even giving short shrift to these quarter-ending high closes. I think there is a much bigger issue here (i.e., with intentionally high quarterly closings) than there is one of theft. These are professionals who are prone to pull strings, not break them.

Regarding the ruling this week of a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit that the SEC could not require hedge-fund advisers to register with the commission, I see that as nothing more than judges ruling for their friends, which requires a response by legislators to do take action on behalf of the people.

As AP's Rachel Beck writes in an article today:

"That decision had nothing to do with whether regulation of hedge funds was a good idea, but centered on a more technical issue over the definition of "clients" for hedge-fund advisers.

Under securities law, an adviser with more than 15 clients and $30 million under management has to register with regulators. Previously, the hedge funds themselves were considered the funds' clients, not the actual investors in the funds. The new rule changed that to make the investors into the clients.

The court, in its June 23 decision, called the SEC rule "arbitrary" and said the agency failed to make a compelling case for the edict's necessity.

"The ruling leaves hedge funds in a regulatory black hole without any rules," said Attorney General Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, where many hedge funds are based. "A measure of transparency would enhance investor confidence in this increasingly important and powerful part of the market, while helping to prevent misconduct from harming consumers and the industry."

As I see it, America at this point has become a country where the rich and powerful are connected to do pretty much as they please. The social fabric of the country is rapidly unraveling.

The same people who speak about the Rule of Law (i.e., the politicians and the judges) are seeking its protection as they go about making loopholes for their friends in high places to exploit. And those who argue the fundamental principle of transparency (i.e., the politicians and the judges) are at the same time enabling their friends to live by a different set of rules.

In other words, what I am saying is that those in authority have been bought off by vested interests whose direct influence has been more powerful than words and feelings of the Little People.

Consequently, the individual owner of capital among the Little People will increasingly remove capital from the U.S. capital market system (i.e., personal savings and U.S. stocks and bonds) and invest it in real estate, private companies or the capital markets of other countries " other countries, by the way, that are as socially selfish or indifferent, or worse.

Many like Bill Gates and Warren Buffett will even send their capital abroad as gifts of wealth to other countries, when pockets of America are impoverished and where the nation's jails are fuller as a percentage of population than any other.

I'm happy to see such beneficial gestures, but I also believe that America needs to attack its ugly truth, which is that there really is no level playing field for the owners of capital. The yellow brick road leads to the managers of a hedge fund or a corporate headquarters somewhere in or near Connecticut.

I do believe that the founders of the nation would never have believed the extent of social inequities that exist today in America.

For example, you or I could not run money without a securities registration, but if we were a friend to judges, dealing only with the rich and powerful, that registration would not be required.

A buck is no longer a buck. All that matters now is who is holding it.

Here's the IYZ Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities ETF (XLU) closed up +1.99 pct W/W at 32.29, helped by a rally in the bond market on Thursday and Friday.

At this point, I think bonds are getting close to their cycle bottom, which, if true, would take the pressure off the debt-laden utilities. So, I' not going to be so negative on these utilities stocks.

In fact, as I indicated elsewhere in this report, I think it's a good time for long-term income oriented traders to start looking for solid dividend payers, and almost (but not quite) a good time to go back to bonds.

It could also be that some of the highest quality Canadian income trusts (as rated by the leading Canadian bank-owned dealer analysts) are worthy of your consideration at this point.

Here's the XLU Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

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Bonds:

This week, there was a turnabout in the bond market. Was it the Fed buying up bonds from the banks in order to give them the extra funds needed to buy up equities for fear they might be dumped on the market following another (17th consecutive) hike in the bank rate?

Was it short covering? 30-year Treasury bonds moved down in yield -7 basis points (bp) from 5.25 to 5.18 pct. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped -9 bp from 5.22 to 5.13 pct; the 5-year Treasuries dropped -11 bp from 5.20 to 5.11 pct, and the 2-year paper -14 bp from 5.26 to 5.12 pct. Even the 3 month T-Bill yield dropped -11 bp from 4.94 to 4.83 pct.

While impressive, this is not a moon shot for bonds. The yields are just back to where they were two weeks ago. All the nonsense about a +50 bp hike by the Fed turned out just to be Wall Street juice for the rally.

Where are the video replays of those Talking Head jerks. Shame on them.

In any case, the Weekly and Daily RSI has now bounced up above the 30-level, and never reached the extreme cycle bottom I needed for issuing a "Buy Alert". So I am holding to my premise that bonds are still generally in a bear trend, but rapidly nearing a bottom, which could be reached in the next intermediate-term (probably short-term) bear cycle.

Weekly data charts:

Daily data charts:

Hourly data charts:

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.83	4.83	4.94	47.10
6 Month	4.99	5.02	5.24	48.65
2 Year	5.14	5.18	5.25	5.03
3 Year	5.12	5.15	5.23	5.03
5 Year	5.09	5.14	5.20	5.03
10 Year	5.13	5.19	5.22	5.13
30 Year	5.18	5.24	5.25	5.22

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.75	3.74	3.69	3.61
2yr AAA	3.76	3.76	3.73	3.63
2yr A	3.81	3.84	3.77	3.72
5yr AAA	3.90	3.90	3.86	3.71
5yr AA	3.93	3.92	3.89	3.72
5yr A	3.95	3.95	3.89	3.75
10yr AAA	4.14	4.15	4.11	3.98
10yr AA	4.13	4.12	4.10	3.96
10yr A	4.23	4.21	4.24	4.11
20yr AAA	4.50	4.51	4.47	4.34
20yr AA	4.48	4.49	4.46	4.31
20yr A	4.61	4.62	4.60	4.51

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	5.57	5.58	5.66	5.43
2yr A	5.63	5.65	5.73	5.51
5yr AAA	5.67	5.67	5.75	5.53
5yr AA	5.72	5.77	5.82	5.63
5yr A	5.77	5.83	5.88	5.68
10yr AAA	6.02	5.94	6.02	5.84
10yr AA	5.96	6.03	6.08	5.93
10yr A	6.09	6.15	6.19	6.02
20yr AAA	6.25	6.25	6.26	6.14
20yr AA	6.42	6.42	6.42	6.44
20yr A	6.43	6.49	6.54	6.43

Interest rates and bond yields.

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The pull-back in yields after the Thursday 2:15pm Fed announcement, and through Friday, is not likely to persist. I believe there is more downside testing of a cycle bottom on bond prices to come.

Also, I have not changed my opinion that the economy is softening, which is a good time to switch from common equities (particularly growth seekers) to fixed income. At least, those traders who are inclined to trade bonds will have missed the brunt of the past year's assault by now, and the next pull-back will likely present some excellent entry points.

On the bond series, I watch TLT most closely. The RSI on the Monthly data is down to 32.8.

These bonds have quickly fallen from about 97 to a low of 83.12 in May. I was looking for a short-term cycle peak at about 86 followed by a new cycle low of about 82, and would have entered the market at 82 or lower, depending on the Hourly data RSI and Stochastics bottoming out at that point.

We may have to wait a bit unless there is a rash of "hot" economic data in the U.S. in te next couple weeks, which would push bonds down further, particularly if the CPI/PPI growth rate data is strong.

They say you cannot time these things, and I retort with the statement that nothing's perfect. Nobody says you needed to get a high of 97 on the TLT a year ago or that you need to get 82 here.

But I assure you that if you traded out of the TLT at anywhere north of 95 and get back in at 83 or lower, you will have beaten the performance of 95+ pct of the money managers on Wall Street, including the Bond King himself.

You don't even have to do that. Trading is not a game. It's simply a matter of taking in the whole picture and consistently making what are prudent calls, and decisions that make you comfortable.

Should interest rates continue to go much higher, yes, the TLT might go to 80 or even lower, but you would still be positioned smartly at 82-83. Interest rates are likely not going to return to the levels of 2003 again " maybe not in your lifetime at least.

But they will likely drop to a point where TLT will cross above 90 again, and do it within a year or two. If that were the case, your total return (from interest plus capital appreciation) would be quite satisfactory.

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US Bond Funds -- Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

IEF Monthly data series chart:

TLT Monthly data series chart:

AGG Monthly data series chart:

LQD Monthly data series chart:

TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Hourly Data Charts

SHY Hourly data series chart:

IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

When you look at the Hourly price data charts on these bond series, you have to ask yourself, what could possibly have happened in the market to zip these bonds on Thursday?

Yes, I heard some executives like the GM CEO say the economy was softening rapidly, but I also heard the Fed spokespersons say that inflation was still the number one concern.

So for now, I'll put the move down to (i) short-covering (ii) Fed buying, and (iii) end of the quarter window dressing by hedge fund portfolio managers. In other words, I don't think it's a sustainable move, and I will be looking for a sell-off of a quarter point next week that would permit the RSI on the Hourly data series to pull back from elevated 80-90 levels.

Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FNM	48.10	-0.16	-0.33%	3.73%	1.80%	-7.05%	-1.31%	-7.14%	-1.45%	-17.64%
CFC	38.08	0.01	0.03%	2.70%	3.62%	-2.58%	8.92%	6.55%	11.38%	-1.37%
TLT	84.32	0.74	0.89%	1.08%	0.01%	-0.55%	-8.13%	-2.97%	-8.25%	-12.80%
TIP	99.57	0.53	0.54%	0.97%	0.36%	-0.41%	-3.37%	-1.05%	-3.22%	-7.14%
IEF	80.32	0.25	0.31%	0.64%	0.02%	-0.70%	-4.27%	-1.47%	-4.28%	-7.64%
FRE	57.01	-0.09	-0.16%	0.37%	-0.85%	-6.03%	-12.70%	-8.71%	-12.76%	-12.60%
SHY	79.69	0.07	0.09%	0.29%	0.19%	-0.04%	-0.78%	-0.34%	-0.65%	-1.91%
AGG	97.44	-0.01	-0.01%	0.23%	-0.33%	-0.84%	-3.18%	-1.33%	-3.13%	-5.75%

TLT was up +1.08 pct W/W to 84.32, which was a 90 bp move. That was a good-sized move for a single week.

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The consumer finance stocks had a couple good days this week as well.

Fannie Mae (FNM) had quite a remarkable jump at the open on Thursday (lucky bet?) and again at 2:15pm. Countrywide (CFC) and Freddie Mac (FRE) also boomed after 2:15pm, but had little else going for them this week.

The mortgage lending business is in decline, and will stay that way for a while unless demand (mortgage applications) picks up, which is unlikely until mortgage rates drop, and that won't happen unless bond prices drop further.

With inventory periods and time to sell one's home getting stretched out, and with a flat yield curve for risk-free bonds, I think this must be a poor time to be in the mortgage (or personal asset-based) lending business.

Consumer Finance -USA -- Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Daily Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA -- Hourly Data Charts

Three weeks ago I wrote: "I think the consumer finance (and the small local banks and savings and loans companies) have run into "issues" with the flat yield curve since April, and now Countrywide Financial seems to also have hit a wall."

This week CFC was up +2.70 pct, which was accomplished in an hour or so after 2:15pm on Thursday. Otherwise, for three weeks, CFC has done zip.

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Commodities:

A week ago, $CRB was down -1.23 pct W/W to 335.04, and I wrote: "$CRB is trading at the bottom end of the recent hi-lo range of 366.00-329.64. The 40-Week Moving Average for $CRB is 333.53, so there is support for the commodities, even if the metals and oils are in a short-term bear phase. Some traders are calling it the end of the 4 year commodity Bull. That's because the current price is testing the 40 Week Moving Average for the sixth time in the past 3 years. I say Bull. :-) I think that, within a couple weeks, the price of the $CRB index will start to lift."

Yes, central bankers are talking like hawks but they are acting like doves in order to protect a housing industry that could spiral the economy out of its present growth mode into a recession.

Ergo, this week $CRB was the Bull I said it was. $CRB was up +3.39 pct W/W.

There was a low of 333.33, which bounced off the rising 40-week Moving Average, taking the Friday close to 346.39, and the new 40 wMA to 334.11.

Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Daily CRB Commodities Index:

$WTIC (near oil futures) was up +4.09 pct W/W to close at 73.77. That's eight consecutive strong days, which surprised me.

Two weeks ago, I wrote: "I wouldn't mind the price sitting in the 67-71 range for a while. But once $WTIC moves higher, the Fed will likely take action that could pull down the metals too."

$WTIC closed the week at 73.77, so the Fed cannot be happy. The prices of gasoline at my filling station are getting out of sight again " just in time for summer driving season.

What is going to happen, pray tell, when the first serious hurricane approaches the gas and oil infrastructure regions of the Gulf of Mexico?

As to the possible upside for NY crude oil, I see expect the price to hit a ceiling at 75, and bounce back. At some point, a softening U.S. economy has to kick in and oil costs will drop.

Weekly Crude Oil:

Daily Crude Oil:

The $WTIC has shown surprising strength for eight straight days. If this continues, I can't see how the USD is going to rally. Rather the USD will fall even faster and precious metals will also rally.

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Gold:

A week ago, I wrote: "The price is now closer to the 595.42 cycle high and 542.27 cycle low, and at 584 appears to have broken out to the upside. As the price moved in a range between 550 and 580, I believed it was like a spring being wound up for a summer rally. I never saw that as a negative."

Then before the move, there was a final concerted effort to shake out the market, which caused me to bring on my own problems. As a stop price had been reached, I wrote, "I'm out." All I had to add to qualify that remark was that as a very short-term trader I was out but that as soon as I saw the $USD breaking down, and $GOLD back up over 580, especially if it was zooming past 580 on its way to the previous cycle high of 595.42 that I would re-enter, that would have saved me with some readers.

As soon as I put in those stops, I knew that was going to haunt me. I never intended for this blog to be so specific.

And if I hadn't given blood at the doctor's office in the late morning after fasting from the prior day, I would not have felt faint and laid down for much of the afternoon, and I would have blogged as apparently needed by some people.

I think those who wrote to ask me what was going on were absolutely right to do so, however. I enjoy the challenge; I enjoy bowing to the mirror. Hence I take criticism seriously as well.

But try to cut me some slack; I have had a lot on my mind this week.

So $GOLD jumped $32.25 to 616.00 this week, for a gain of +5.52 pct W/W. The low of 577.15, which didn't quite meet my stop (but the GDX did " to the penny before reversing) also did not quite make it down to the 40 wMA of 556.64.

I had been quite confident that 542.27 was the cycle low, and it was. If you intend to criticize, ask yourself how many pundits made that call?

I can tell you now that at 542.27, almost every Talking Head, and many bloggers, called a bottom much lower " 520-500-480-even 450 (and further south).

In fact, do you recall what I wrote June 13 at 1:10 pm?

"With the pull-back, I recommend that traders nibble away at some of the juniors that are well promoted and rose quickly from March through May. Later today I will give a list of some that I think will zoom in the next several months. For starters, you could look at Silvercorp, Yamana, Glencairn, Queenstake, Lakeshore.

So, this week's smash to gold and silver prices has provided the buying opportunity of the year. The opportunity is in the juniors."

Now look at the charts for these five stocks to see what happened before and after June 13:

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And if you look at the time from the first stop right at the close on June 27 and shortly after the open on the 28th until the conditions changed in the morning of the 29th that I first alerted readers to at 4:37am ET, there was not much time or money lost.

So why the ball-breaking attempt (not that I care)?

Now take a look again at the Daily gold chart for $GOLD and specifically look to June 13.

And look to the $XAU Daily chart, again to June 13.

Since then, in something like 13 or 14 days, the $XAU is up +20 pct.

The stocks I recommended are up +20 pct or more.

So, if you are going to still complain, show me somebody who is doing it better. Then take your eyeballs elsewhere. Otherwise, I am happy with the blog, and have taken note that I have to continuously work on the use of English.

All through this piece, I have tried to show concern for the various types of readers I have. For example, at 3:50pm on June 13 (that same day I had called a cycle bottom) I wrote:

"(With respect to a bearish call I am making for Sept 26); But if there is anybody out there with a clearer crystal ball, please tell me who you are. In the meantime, I think there is a big trade to be made in precious metal stocks, and I see that Merrill Lynch is bullish there too."

On June 15 (7:28am) I also wrote:

"I think yesterday's low of about $540 on spot Gold was a cycle low. In any event, the risk:reward factors have clearly shifted in favor of gold and against $USD. (see UPDATE at 5:12pm)."

The bottom line is that this is a free blog. I am offering free opinion. I am not getting paid to do this. If anybody thinks they are going to get a better discussion elsewhere, I ask you, please try to do so. Trust me, I won't be offended.

I know there are just about 98 pct of professional money managers out there (in the ether) who would be dieing to make these calls. The point is I'm not trying to be perfect. Don't hold me to an impossible standard. I am just blogging for free, and doing so because I enjoy it.

Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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$SILVER was up +7.44 pct W/W to close Friday at 11.07.

A week ago I opined "The 40-Week MA of 9.88 will likely remain solid support. I believe a cycle low was put in a week and a half ago at 9.48."

But then you knew that on June 13, right?

Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT closed up +1.16 pct to 1188.10. The move was not as trong as for silver or gold. However what I wrote a week ago I still believe: "The 1099.20 recent cycle low will likely hold, and the recent cycle high (on the Daily) of 1206.30 will likely soon be taken out. Doubters will say that this Friday, the 50 Day MA resistance of 1209.12 pushed back the $PLAT, which may be a sign of weakness. I don't think so."

Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Platinum metal index.

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$PALL closed the week at 313.40, up +1.24 pct.

While not a powerful move, the price is still moving closer to the recent cycle high of 319.06, and away from the low of 267.74.

Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Palladium metal index.

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$COPPER rallied (unexpectedly by me) by +5.84 pct this week to close at 333.50, which is a move of 18.40.

$COPPER hit a cycle low of 291.45 about two and a half weeks ago.

Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GFI	22.90	0.40	1.78%	12.25%	26.59%	8.94%	18.84%	3.25%	29.89%	101.76%
KGC	10.89	0.56	5.42%	8.04%	12.15%	-3.97%	10.11%	-1.36%	18.11%	78.52%
LIHRY	44.46	1.99	4.69%	7.50%	8.97%	-2.29%	28.20%	21.24%	38.63%	139.55%
GG	30.22	0.79	2.68%	7.28%	10.37%	-0.46%	24.88%	2.68%	35.64%	91.51%
AEM	33.08	1.24	3.89%	7.12%	18.82%	-4.61%	50.09%	10.45%	67.41%	162.54%
GLG	37.86	0.75	2.02%	6.89%	19.81%	-2.70%	27.26%	15.78%	37.77%	119.99%
MDG	31.68	0.20	0.64%	6.13%	11.51%	-3.27%	32.22%	5.49%	44.86%	76.00%
NEM	52.93	0.74	1.42%	6.11%	5.73%	-0.69%	-7.37%	0.00%	-0.88%	35.61%
ABX	29.60	0.32	1.09%	4.96%	6.78%	-3.55%	2.71%	7.17%	6.21%	18.26%
BVN	27.28	0.90	3.41%	4.64%	4.44%	-0.80%	-7.71%	8.73%	-3.60%	18.66%

A week ago I wrote, "This week I put out a full BUY alert on the goldminers, after dipping my toe in the water the week earlier. The breakout did happen with $XAU jumping +4.17 pct this week to close at 133.40. On Friday it was up +1.60 pct. The Toronto goldminer index (XGD) was up +2.16 pct to 68.66. Some of the goldminers made a big move this week. Goldfields (GFI) soared +12.8 pct this week, and Glamis (GLG) and Agnico-Eagle (AEM) were close by at +12.1 pct and +10.9 pct. What a week! But I told you it would be, right?"

So trust me, when I say that one of two stops (and that one barely was touched) was hit, and I was watching day to day, that did not mean I was advising people I was selling out.

This week, GFI, GLG and AEM were strong again.

"Stockman" sent along this illustration that he says indicates that my opinion that goldminer stocks have likely entered their summer rally is a good one:

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To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY GLG KGC BVN
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO PAAS GOLD CDE GRS
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

CBJ SSRI RGLD SIL NG KRY HL TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG GRZ
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW WTZ MGN

15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

---

Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

XGD Weekly data:

XGD Daily data:

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Forex:

Two weeks ago I opined: "But I don't think the rising price will make it back to the prior cycle high of 86.50." I was ok until Thursday (and Friday " up another +0.51 pct Friday) closing a week ago at 86.87.

A week ago I wrote: "The $USD was up +1.05 pct W/W, all of it Thursday and Friday, for goodness knows what reason, which is a good way of saying my technical tea leaves ("the rising $USD is about to hit a ceiling") were early to steep " or did I just brew up a bad pun? If $USD continues north by next Saturday, I'll spit out those tea leaves. :-)"

Aha, end of the Dollar rally. The $USD plunged -1.96 pct W/W to 85.17.

Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

A week ago I wrote: "The $XEU (Euro priced in USD) dropped -0.99 pct to 125.18. Wow! (But) I still believe the prior cycle high of 129.74 will be crossed in the next couple weeks;"

This week, $XEU gained +2.12 pct to 127.83. On its way to 130.

Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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International Equities:

On Thursday, the international equity markets had a huge rally day. Most of them started to rally before the Fed had made the announcement. Whether this was tipped or a smart call, if you weren't in the room, you were out of the deal. You don't know.

Who really knows for sure?

NOTE: AN IMPROVEMENT SOON TO BE MADE TO THIS WEEK IN REVIEW REPORT WILL BE THE INTRODUCTION OF FIVE-DAY PRICE CHARTS OF THE MAJOR INDEXES IN ADDITION TO THE USD-PRICED COUNTRY ETF'S. ON OCCASION THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE INDEXES OF JAPAN SAY AND THE ETF (EWJ).

For Japan (EWJ), UK (EWU) and Canada (EWC), there was a major rally. This move now appears to be a rally that could be sustained for 2 to 4 weeks, but is unlikely to take the indexes back anywhere near their recent highs.

In Bear markets, there can be huge rallies, but the definition of Bear is lower highs and lower lows in successive cycles.

Table 13: International equities perspective

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TRF	69.56	1.26	1.84%	11.69%	15.86%	-7.62%	28.81%	-6.94%	27.38%	75.88%
EWZ	39.12	0.52	1.35%	9.80%	11.29%	1.85%	12.32%	-1.81%	17.23%	57.61%
FXI	76.80	-0.40	-0.52%	6.33%	8.08%	2.61%	21.92%	3.02%	24.63%	34.48%
EWJ	13.64	0.11	0.81%	5.41%	5.49%	-4.08%	-2.22%	-5.61%	0.89%	34.52%
IEV	91.35	1.01	1.12%	4.88%	6.00%	-0.92%	9.44%	2.09%	13.10%	22.62%
EWC	23.75	0.20	0.85%	4.63%	4.63%	-3.14%	5.79%	-0.96%	8.45%	30.85%
EWU	21.05	0.18	0.86%	4.41%	4.31%	-0.85%	9.86%	3.03%	13.29%	17.14%
IFN	46.19	-1.53	-3.21%	2.69%	4.15%	-5.64%	11.92%	-10.61%	16.26%	54.74%
SPY	127.23	-0.04	-0.03%	2.22%	2.07%	-1.37%	0.42%	-1.98%	2.18%	6.75%
QQQQ	38.77	-0.19	-0.49%	1.63%	1.12%	-2.19%	-6.15%	-7.80%	-4.08%	5.41%

My thinking now is that we trade prices higher until the next Fed meeting (August 8), and then sidetrack until Sept. 20, when prices will start to decline again " probably hard at first. Then the Oct. 24 Fed meeting is likely to have a ate decline that has no effect in the equity market, but would be beneficial to bonds.

When the Monthly-Weekly-Daily-Hourly RSI and MACD are headed south for these broad market indexes, then traders really want to be out of the market (or short) (or in puts). The stars might not line up again like that for several weeks.

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

The Japanese equity market ETF (EWJ, priced in USD), closed at 13.64, up +5.41 pct.

A week ago, I wrote: "There may be some weakness early in the week, but the Weekly RSI at 27.7 already shows weakness, so it may be ready or a rally going forward. So we shall watch closely."

So, please go to the Hourly data chart and look at the first couple days (down) and then the week's final days (huge rally).

You know, my problem is I try to be perfect. That has always been a downfall of mine. That plus the fact I could care less what anybody thinks because they are not paying me.

(But please, no money. I am not registered like I used to be, and if, as and when that changes, I'll announce it. Then, if there is any interest, we'll talk " maybe. I assure you; that won't be for several months, if at all.)

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWJ Monthly data:

EWJ Weekly data:

EWJ Daily data:

EWJ Hourly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

This week EWU moved higher by +4.41 pct to 21.05. One look at the Hourly data chart shows you that indeed "traders (were) waiting for the FOMC decision."

Were they waiting to rally? Given that EWU had done precisely zip since June 8, I'd say there was a lot of short covering " and then the Hourly data RSI hit 90, and the Daily RSI hit 70.

Now if you look back in the month, you'll see that 70plus is not a deal killer. EWU can still rally here. In fact the gnomes could even use it to pump and dump stocks. I don't know of course, but I do have a strong opinion that EWU is not going to rally past its old cycle high of 22+ set in early May.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWU Monthly data:

EWU Weekly data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Hourly data:

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Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

The EWC (Canada's equity market ETF that trades in the U.S. in USD) was up +4.63 pct W/W to 23.75. Here too everybody was awaiting the Fed decision. Then the whole action took place on Thursday and at the open Friday " interestingly " as well as after 2:15pm Thursday.

As I watched, I had the feeling that it was mostly short covering. There was little of the typical sector leadership. In fact, the usual back-end stuff " the energy and metals " was showing leadership. The financials did ok because bonds were being goosed --probably by short coverers (clearing off their +50bp hedges) or possibly by somebody in Washington, or both.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWC Monthly data:

EWC Weekly data:

EWC Daily data:

EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

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U.S. Equities:

A week ago I wrote: "Not as bad as a week earlier, but nothing more than a Dead Cat Bounce as I see it."

When I saw a few technical indicators (including Rydex data) early this week, and some of the take-overs and strength in the software group, I changed my view that rather than a Dead Cat Bounce, the market might be setting up for a rally.

Minutes after Thurday's buying binge erupted following yet another Fed rate hike, together with some considerable power in the oils and metals, including copper, yes, I changed my mind.

"Stockman" also sent along this illustration of the Small Cap group, which tends to lead rallies:

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I think this equity market is now ready to rally, but the move (as I see it) is likely to be a final attempt to set a new cycle high for the 2002-2006 Bull market, and will fail, thereby confirming my view that the Bear started after the May 10 Fed rate hike.

As I see it, there was nothing different with Thursday's 17th consecutive Fed rate hike from that of the 16th (on May 10) except that interest rates are another 25 basis points closer to breaking the back of the housing market and the economy.

As Fed rates fall in the typical cycle (yes there are typical cycles " we call them idealized cycles), there is first an impact (positive) on the bond market, and then a delayed impact (also positive) on equities.

Just remember how many rate cuts were needed to end the 2000-2002 Bear, and how low rates had to go in that particular cycle.

This time around, the Fed rate will have to drop to where the U.S. economy needs a push AT THAT TIME. At this point in time, no one knows how far and deep the Bear will take the market, so it is impossible to determine the actions the Fed would need to take (given that the equity market is a leading economic driver).

If the economy slows slowly and the Bear comes slowly, like 1973-74 or 2000-2002, then there will have to be many rate cuts. But, if the Bear is a bad one like 1987, there will be less need for many rate cuts. In that case, the equity market will rebound quickly on its own, and the current Fed monetary policy can stay in place.

Given that there was no reason to be so optimistic with this week's Fed rate increase, I put it down to more money printing like what happened earlier this year after Bernanke hid the M3 data from the public.

This pumping action by the Fed and the Treasury is serving one master " the Republicans who are trying desperately to retain control of both houses in Congress. As for Bush, he's a lame duck anyway, and his 39 pct approval rating in the poll going into the next Presidential election is likely to even become a plus for his party " the people are likely to look upon his GOP successor as a savior!

This week (notably Thursday), the Dow jumped +1.47 pct, the S&P 500 +2.07 pct, the Nasdaq +2.39 pct, and the Russell Small Cap +5.00 pct.

That's what usually happens when a short term rally starts; traders who are short will cover while others will flock to average down their riskier positions. Then a month or two later, they all hope to be in a superior position to win at the musical chairs game.

Here is the Monthly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

There were 21 Dow stocks up this week and just 9 down. Yes, I am surprised at the power of the rally on Thursday. Enough said.

The bond market had a brief rally, and equities followed.

But you heard that one a week ago " in reverse.

That's after the bonds had been smashed for two consecutive weeks, and I wrote:

"Now if bonds surprise and start to rally here, that's not to say equities will immediately follow. They will " in time. But first, traders have to figure how bad is the economy going to be that helps bonds but would not also hurt equities. Sometimes that takes many months to figure out. And then when equities are ready to go into the next Bull cycle, the typical rotation is first into the utilities and financials and a few leading techs (chips and software usually), followed by the consumer group, followed by the balance of the techs, and lastly by capital goods manufacturers, energy and metals. In a solidly growing economy, neither cash nor gold are favored. But in this next cycle, until I see evidence that the $USD is in global balance (narrow trading range) with Euro's and Yen, then I think precious metals ought to still play a big role in one's portfolio."

One day did not change the principles I stand for. Yes, there was a small bond market rally " probably short covering. And yes that helped the equities too. But the equities were rallying on hope by Wall Street traders that the economy is going to remain "strong" " the word used in Washington and not on Main Street " and that the Bull is still alive and kicking and not in death throes.

The following table shows the weekly price performance of the Dow 30 stocks, which I sorted by 1-week price change.

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GM	29.79	2.35	8.56%	10.46%	16.37%	12.46%	57.62%	41.45%	53.40%	-12.38%
AA	32.36	0.46	1.44%	7.22%	7.54%	-0.64%	8.23%	5.34%	9.44%	23.84%
XOM	61.35	-1.02	-1.64%	5.59%	4.34%	-0.49%	4.93%	0.38%	9.22%	6.75%
INTC	19.00	-0.32	-1.66%	5.56%	3.83%	4.22%	-25.69%	-3.55%	-23.88%	-26.98%
MRK	36.43	0.54	1.50%	4.26%	5.87%	7.30%	11.24%	2.30%	14.52%	18.28%
PFE	23.47	0.23	0.99%	3.67%	0.17%	-2.98%	-1.30%	-6.87%	0.64%	-14.90%
MSFT	23.30	-0.17	-0.72%	3.56%	5.43%	2.37%	-13.19%	-14.43%	-10.90%	-6.20%
CAT	74.48	0.08	0.11%	3.24%	5.57%	2.29%	28.86%	2.87%	28.93%	56.31%
MCD	33.60	0.04	0.12%	3.07%	1.39%	0.27%	0.24%	-2.75%	-0.36%	21.08%
MO	73.43	-0.46	-0.62%	3.06%	3.60%	0.80%	-2.07%	2.38%	-1.73%	13.56%
DIS	30.00	0.12	0.40%	3.02%	1.87%	-2.02%	22.95%	7.64%	25.16%	19.14%
JPM	42.00	-0.68	-1.59%	2.76%	4.58%	-4.13%	4.50%	1.13%	5.82%	18.91%
HON	40.30	0.34	0.85%	2.52%	3.39%	-2.18%	7.58%	-4.82%	8.19%	10.02%
VZ	33.49	0.19	0.57%	2.01%	2.92%	4.85%	10.24%	-2.90%	11.19%	-3.18%
T	27.89	0.19	0.69%	1.90%	0.36%	4.34%	12.87%	3.22%	13.88%	17.43%
UTX	63.42	0.13	0.21%	1.83%	2.70%	0.62%	12.19%	9.31%	13.43%	23.51%
AXP	53.22	-0.67	-1.24%	1.20%	0.57%	-2.74%	1.22%	2.09%	3.42%	-0.02%
MMM	80.77	-0.38	-0.47%	1.06%	0.32%	-4.73%	2.10%	5.55%	4.22%	11.72%
C	48.24	-0.62	-1.27%	1.05%	-0.25%	-3.79%	-2.13%	2.03%	-0.60%	4.35%
KO	43.02	-0.04	-0.09%	0.63%	-0.44%	-1.98%	5.18%	2.14%	6.72%	3.04%
WMT	48.17	-0.54	-1.11%	0.48%	-0.29%	0.71%	4.20%	1.07%	2.93%	-0.06%
PG	55.60	-1.39	-2.44%	-0.23%	1.05%	3.06%	-5.41%	-3.52%	-3.94%	5.40%
AIG	59.05	-0.22	-0.37%	-0.35%	-1.37%	-3.37%	-15.18%	-10.63%	-13.45%	1.64%
IBM	76.82	-0.77	-0.99%	-0.36%	-1.45%	-3.43%	-6.39%	-7.67%	-6.55%	3.53%
DD	41.60	0.07	0.17%	-0.50%	1.86%	-3.93%	-3.39%	-2.14%	-2.12%	-3.28%
GE	32.96	-0.31	-0.93%	-0.60%	-2.86%	-4.90%	-6.81%	-4.88%	-5.96%	-4.88%
HD	35.79	-0.67	-1.84%	-1.70%	-3.03%	-5.82%	-13.22%	-15.55%	-11.59%	-7.99%
BA	81.91	-1.09	-1.31%	-1.77%	-4.24%	-2.26%	16.45%	4.45%	16.61%	24.11%
JNJ	59.92	0.03	0.05%	-2.28%	-2.85%	-1.35%	-2.77%	0.96%	-0.30%	-7.82%
HPQ	31.68	-0.35	-1.09%	-3.00%	-4.12%	-2.22%	10.11%	-2.73%	10.65%	34.75%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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The latest Value Line Reports on the Dow 30 are for AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ). A quick reading shows that both are yielding an attractive and well protected 4.9 pct dividend yield, but based on earnings growth, Value Line has this week jumped its Timeliness rating on T to a "1". I would agree that T is superior to VZ as far as a timely trade.

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(T) (T) Financials (Here is the Jun. 30 Value Line report on T: next one is due Sep. 29)

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(VZ) (VZ) Financials (Here is the Jun. 30 Value Line report on VZ: next one is due Sep. 29)

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As for these Dow 30 U.S. Telco service companies, the name of their game is dividends.

If you seek long-term dividend income, then AT&T is a good play. Maybe a little now, and after the presently unfolding (brief?) equity rally, it may be appropriate to scale out of the over-priced and under-dividending stocks into more T.

I think your total return would be enhanced with that approach.

In any case, next week I plan to write up a scenario for switching out of the high growth equities into a high dividend portfolio, and avoid most of the subsequent bear market price declines.

This isn't a strategy for day traders, or for me, but there are many of you who are concerned about what bear markets do to your portfolio values, but don't have any interest I short-term trading.

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(AA) (AA) Financials (Here is the Apr. 21 Value Line report on AA: next one is due Jul. 21)

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(AIG) (AIG) Financials (Here is the May 26 Value Line report on AIG: next one is due Aug. 25)

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(AXP) (AXP) Financials (Here is the May 26 Value Line report on AXP: next one is due Aug. 25)

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(BA) (BA) Financials (Here is the Jun. 23 Value Line report on BA: next one is due Sep. 22)

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(C) (C) Financials (Here is the May 26 Value Line report on C: next one is due Aug. 25) Cara 100

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(CAT) (CAT) Financials (Here is the Apr. 28 Value Line report on CAT: next one is due Jul. 28)

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(DD) (DD) Financials ( Here is the Apr. 21 Value Line report on DD: next one is due Jul. 21)

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(DIS) (DIS) Financials (Here is the May 19 Value Line report on DIS: next one is due Aug. 18) Cara 100

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(GE) (GE) Financials ( Here is the Apr. 14 Value Line report on GE: next one is due Jul. 14) Cara 100

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(GM) (GM) Financials Here is the Jun. 2 Value Line report on GM: next one is due Sep. 1)

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(HD) (HD) Financials (Here is the Apr. 8 Value Line report on HD: next one is due Jul. 7) Cara 100

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(HON) (HON) Financials (Here is the Apr. 28 Value Line report on HON: next one is due Jul. 28)

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(HPQ) (HPQ) Financials (Here is the Apr. 14 Value Line report on HPQ: next one is due Jul. 14)

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(IBM) (IBM) Financials ( Here is the Apr. 14 Value Line report on IBM: next one is due Jul. 14)

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(INTC) (INTC) Financials ( Here is the Apr. 14 Value Line report on INTC: next one is due Jul. 14) Cara 100

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(JNJ) (JNJ) Financials Here is the Jun. 2 Value Line report on JNJ: next one is due Sep. 1) Cara 100

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(JPM) (JPM) Financials Here is the May 26 Value Line report on JPM: next one is due Aug. 25)

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(KO) (KO) Financials (Here is the May 5 Value Line report on KO: next one is due Aug.4)

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(MCD) (MCD) Financials (Here is the Mar. 10 Value Line report on MCD: next one is due Jun. 9)

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(MMM) (MMM) Financials (Here is the May 19 Value Line report on MMM: next one is due Aug. 18) Cara 100

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(MO) (MO) Financials (Here is the May 5 Value Line report on MO: next one is due Aug. 4)

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(MRK) (MRK) Financials ( Here is the Apr. 21 Value Line report on MRK: next one is due Jul. 21)

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(MSFT) (MSFT) Financials (Here is the May 26 Value Line report on MSFT: next one is due Aug. 25)

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(PFE) (PFE) Financials (Here is the Apr. 21 Value Line report on PFE: next one is due Jul. 21)

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(PG) (PG) Financials (Here is the Apr. 8 Value Line report on PG: next one is due Jul. 7) Cara 100

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(T) (T) Financials (Here is the Jun. 30 Value Line report on T: next one is due Sep. 29)

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(UTX) (UTX) Financials (Here is the Apr. 28 Value Line report on UTX: next one is due Jul. 28) Cara 100

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(VZ) (VZ) Financials (Here is the Jun. 30 Value Line report on VZ: next one is due Sep. 29)

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(WMT) (WMT) Financials (Here is the May 12 Value Line report on WMT: next one is due Aug. 11) Cara 100

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(XOM) (XOM) Financials (Here is the Jun. 16 Value Line report on XOM: next one is due Sep. 15) Cara 100

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Wrap up:

Today, in addition to being Canada Day (Independence Day in Canada) and my brother's birthday, is the first anniversary of the passing of my Dad. My Mom had passed less than 48 hours earlier. They had been together, husband and wife, for 65 years. I knew in my heart my Dad would soon join her. I shall miss them forever.

This weekend is also Independence Day in America. Thinking about freedom perhaps led to my rant about social inequality and restrictions placed on us, but not others, by those who control the system.

We, in Canada and the United States, seem to have gone from control by one group (a couple centuries ago) to control by another " as I see it anyway.

Yesterday as part of a week long celebration of our own 37th wedding anniversary, Pat and I bought a lot of clothes at Tilley Endurables -- blazer, pants, belt, hats -- mostly hemp. They say you can never wear these clothes out but if you do, just roll them up and smoke them.

After visiting Harbourfront, we decided to go to a favorite rooftop patio bar in the West End where we could overlook the city skyline and enjoy a quiet lunch away from the tourists on a beautiful day. But shortly after, the most amazing thing happened. A humungous stretch limo pulled up and out popped eleven large-sized women (football team?) all wearing the same flaming red "The Party Starts Right Here" t-shirts. They shouted up, enquiring as to how they could join us. So, in an empty and rather large roof deck, this small army took the tables beside us where they proceeded to pop back sangrias and beer to celebrate their "second stop of the day".

Pat asked, "So what happened to your crystal ball?"

But she and you knew it doesn't always work, right?

Now we are off to watch the Lord of the Rings musical, and a weekend at the Park Hyatt. Sometime this weekend, we are off to dinner at Spuntini's where we were asked to say hello to Fernando and Peter. We had tried to get into Fieramosca, but apparently they are closed at the times we wanted to go.

See you again Monday evening, God willing.

p.s., I couldn't access the servers at Investertech yesterday afternoon or this morning, which delayed production of this report. I hope John is just servicing his systems over the long weekend and the stoppage isn't anything more serious.

BCara@BillCara.com