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July 1, 2006

Week #26 (2006-07-01) in Review (FINAL)

This week all the action in equities, bonds, commodities and forex took place on, or related to, Fed Day Thursday. The stagflation story was put on the back burner and traders focused on reflation.

Why do I think this? It's because bonds also moved up on Thursday (afternoon) and Friday.

Thursday was an All Points Bulletin day: "Buy anything in capital markets, futures, or currencies " anything with a heartbeat." The USD, as everyone knows, has died, and so the only selling action traders took on Thursday was to off the USD.

But you knew that was coming because you read my previous Weeks In Review, right?

So let the good times roll " for two to four weeks at least. Then on August 8 there will be Reckoning Day. Should the Fed raise one more time, and the economy continue to chill, I think that will be lights out for equities...

Ah, but maybe not.

August 8, September 20 and October 24 are the next three dates for FOMC meetings, and there are crucially important mid-term elections coming up.

It used to be that separation existed between the White House and the Fed. In fact the first George Bush to the White House lost his second electoral attempt after he says Greenspan backdoored him. For a most interesting read, I recommend "Maestro" by Bob Woodward.

I think we can all rest assured that the younger Bush has enough markers in hand from Bernanke (from prior to him handing out this plum) to ensure that doesn't happen again.

So the over-extended period of bullishness we now face (note I didn't say Bull Market), caused by excessive money printing, is likely to go on a couple months longer.

I'm expecting another Fed hike of +25 bp on Aug-08 combined with "guidance" that the 18th consecutive rate hike that day is expected to be the last one, whereupon the market will try to stomach the higher interest rate costs one more time. Then the Sept. 20 FOMC decision will be to hold the line.

Following that, there is likely to be a rate cut of 25 bp on Oct. 24, right before the federal elections in the U.S. Of course, by then energy and metals prices will be absolutely soaring, and so Congress will pull their stunt of clamoring for investigations into "gouging" and so forth.

The politicos on the ruling Republican side will hope this action on "our" behalf (lol) will get them re-elected to another majority. Meanwhile costs of living will be rising, and the economy slowing down and the war effort even more saddening, so the public polls will sink even further. The polarization of left and right will escalate into what I perceive wil be the all-time nastiest election campaign in history.

I am not political " not even American " but I see this President's final years to be, let's say, more than challenging. I see the $USD collapsing, and during this period, I believe $GOLD will rise to over $850, possibly over $1,000.

If true, all this was unnecessary and will not be Bernanke's fault. The seeds were sown during 2000, when the Greenspan-led Fed raised too much, and into 2003, when the Fed dropped the rate too low, and kept it too low for too long.

That's what happens when politicians get to control the actions of the Fed. I say eliminate the Fed " put it under the control of Congress " and then blame Congress when they make bad decisions. Vote them out. Why go through the fiction of having politicians controlling the Fed but having politicians also point fingers every time the results turn ugly?

And why have leaks between Fed directors (bankers and gnomes) and their friends. Yes, I have a lot of respect for the individuals involved on these boards, but I have zero faith in human ability to control the thirst for greed when billions, even trillions, are on the line, and those people know tomorrow's news with absolute certainty.

The only check and balance is to have an adversarial political system be responsible for the Fed.

One final point is that Bear Markets (lower highs and lower lows in the intermediate cycle broad market indexes) is an evolving phenomenon. It takes time for the market to play out these cycles. That's why I say you never know for a fact that a Bear Market happens until it happened.

But the key to successful trading is to take all the evidence " from corporate fundamental and quantitative data, the macro-economic environment in which producers, service companies and consumers must operate, as well as the share price technical indicators over the long, intermediate and short run, and you put the package together. You need to project trend.

Success in trading is staying on the right side of trend. Sales people of course will tell you it's picking the right stocks " which conveniently are the ones they have created, are selling, and/or are holding, directly or indirectly, by family or friends.

I say never listen to anybody with a vested interest if you are seeking independent and objective advice. You will never get it.

But the job of the sales side is also to give you information, education and facilitation, so that when you make up your own mind as to what you need and want, hopefully you and the sell side have a good enough relationship to do business.

I have never said that you should never use the sell-side. I have stopped short by saying that the buy-side needs to pressure legislators to change the legislation favoring financial services companies to the unfair advantage that they know in advance what you are going to trade and how you are going to trade, and then can trade against you. That is a ludicrously unfair relationship, and unless it stops, the capital markets are headed for systemic failure. Doomed.

I don't think 98 pct of the sell side wants that either. Let's face it; they need jobs.

It's just the jerks who run the industry, who run the exchanges and who pay off the politicians and regulators to ensure the status quo that are the problem. As this Bear Market plays out, we need a change of thinking in Washington.

Now, let's see how this week went in the capital markets.


Global Market Summary

International Equities: The equity markets of emerging economies and advanced economies all lifted off like a rocket this week.

U.S. Equities : Table 13 below shows the excellent performance from Thursday morning this week for the broad U.S. equity markets pales by comparison to the international markets. But, up is up, even if most of the U.S. techs are laggards.

Dow 30 : 21 up -- 9 down. Another intermediate leg up started on Thursday morning (either anticipating or being tipped in advance of the FOMC decision), but I hold to the notion the Bear started on May 10, and that new cycle highs will not be set in this rally. It is a rally where stocks will mostly be distributed.

U.S. Sector ETFs: Ten of 10 ETF's I track were up, which means that those fleeing the bear, stopped and ran back for a photo op as the bear stopped lunching. Wall Street is sucking the public back in " did you note the evening "Town Hall" show this week by CNBC. Everything was rosy, and then the Fed did their part, and kaboom there were buyers on Thursday. I call it a Sucker Rally, but it is a rally, without doubt.

First segment: most influenced by global commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #1 (+6.31 pct); Forget the softening economy: traders loved that higher Fed rate (lol)
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #2 (+3.75 pct); Forget the "hawkish" Fed: traders loved miners
20: Industrials (XLI): #6 (+1.71); GE tanked again, as did BA
Second segment: most influenced by U.S. consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #8 (+1.55 pct); Rally laggard
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #7 (+1.64 pct); Another rally laggard
35: Healthcare (IYH): #10 (+1.09 pct); AET+UNH down after being up, down, up, down
Third segment: most influenced by U.S. interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #4 (+2.28 pct); More blow-off rally to come
45: Tech (SMH chips): #9 (+1.39 pct); Inteller jacked it up from #10
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): #3 (+3.05 pct); Quiet fear seeks dividends
55: Utilities (XLU): #5 (+1.99 pct); Bonds were up, hooray!

Bonds: This week yields dropped from 7 to 14 basis points as bond prices rallied. There was almost a "Buy Alert" but for the fact the bonds did not quite drop down to my Accumulation Zone. I think this was short-covering only.

Commodities: $CRB was up +3.39 pct W/W as technical support levels held up, and the USD plunged.

Oil & Gas: The $WTIC futures jumped +4.09 pct W/W, rallying right through technical resistance as the $USD fell harder than anticipated (related to Fed Day). I thought the price in short run might have fallen back to mid-60's before rallying, but $USD fell -2.0 pct this week.

Gold: Two weeks ago I wrote: "Ah, but the good news is they are on the way back." This week $GOLD jumped a further $32.25 (+5.5 pct), taking it to a higher trading range.

Goldminers: The $XAU (U.S. listed gold and silver miners) continued strong, gaining +7.6 pct W/W. The XGD (TSX gold miner ETF) was up +4.6 pct.

Forex: The $USD dropped like a stone in a sea of liquidity. That's what happens when money, money, money is being printed. Donald Trump needs it to keep building skyscraper office and residential towers. I'm sure he is a happier man at the end of this week.


Sector ETF:

I hold to my opinion that: "I have opined that there will not be a sustainable Bull rally unless and until both Tech and Financials join in." This week Tech (semiconductors SMH) was second worst, and that says it all.

But with the market's understanding that U.S. money supply is growing, and international central banks holding the line on rate hikes, traders this week decided to buy up the broad market sectors (e.g., 10 of 10 are up). Accordingly, Energy (GICS Sector 10) and Basic Materials (GICS Sector 15) were numbers 1 and 2 best respectively.

For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds (ETF's). The table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List
Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
XLE 56.75 0.19 0.34% 6.31% 6.87% 0.39% 7.69% 2.86% 12.80% 27.61%
XLB 32.10 0.15 0.47% 3.75% 4.94% -2.16% 3.82% -1.71% 6.01% 18.28%
IYZ 25.65 0.34 1.34% 3.05% 1.75% 1.06% 11.67% -0.97% 12.20% 9.62%
XLF 32.34 -0.09 -0.28% 2.28% 1.63% -2.74% 0.43% -0.61% 2.12% 9.74%
XLU 32.29 0.09 0.28% 1.99% 0.56% -0.77% 0.91% 3.96% 2.87% 2.31%
XLI 33.81 -0.03 -0.09% 1.71% 1.65% -1.54% 6.89% 0.00% 7.61% 15.08%
XLP 24.19 -0.11 -0.45% 1.64% 1.85% 0.96% 3.20% 2.11% 3.86% 6.33%
XLY 33.39 0.02 0.06% 1.55% 0.72% -1.71% 1.18% -1.10% 2.27% 1.86%
SMH 32.91 -0.16 -0.48% 1.39% -0.36% -4.88% -13.21% -10.42% -10.18% -2.26%
IYH 60.43 0.43 0.72% 1.09% 0.07% -1.79% -5.03% -5.67% -4.11% -1.10%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summary window at Investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU . You can also add more ETF's " up to 30 in total.

For a list of components to any ETF, simply go to the AMEX.com web site, and click on ETF's. I do that frequently.

10 (energy: XLE)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLE

15 (basic materials: XLB)ETF Chart for Basic Materials:XLB

20 (industrial: XLI)

ETF Chart for Industrial:XLI

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

ETF Chart for Energy:XLY

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

ETF Chart for Consumer Staples:XLP

35 (healthcare: IYH)

ETF Chart for Health Care:IYH

40 (financial: XLF)

ETF Chart for Financial:XLF

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

ETF Chart for Technology, Semiconductor:SMH

50 (telecom: IYZ)

ETF Chart for Telecom:IYZ

55 (utilities: XLU)

ETF Chart for Utilities:XLU


When you look through these Hourly data charts you will note that Thursday was a good week.

No, actually Thursday was a great week.

Technically speaking, it appears the U.S. market is good to go for the next few weeks, heading into August 8. Isn't it awful when capital markets around the world are just waiting for the Fed to do its thing?


Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

This week, XLE gained +6.31 pct to 56.75.

For all that CNBC pumps the financials and techs, it is the oils (XLE) and basic materials (XLB) that are the big gainers over the past year, up +27.6 pct and +18.3 pct respectively, while the financials (XLF) are up +9.7 pct and the semi-conductor tech (SMH) are down -2.3 pct over 12 months.

As I have written in the past, the simple reason is that traders anticipate further relaxation of U.S. monetary policy and a lower $USD despite all the words that the Administration and Fed are inflation hawks.

Do you recall how there was a complete and total denial of inflation by the Administration, the Fed and Wall Street, and now they are all telling you it is the biggest worry traders face. And they wonder why they lack credibility.

I say, ignore the stories; focus on the trends and cycles of prices, and the quality of the companies whose shares you are holding.

Here's the XLE Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


XLE Weekly data:


XLE Weekly Data

XLE Daily data:

XLE Daily Data

XLE Hourly data:

XLE Hourly Data

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
SU 81.01 0.73 0.91% 10.26% 11.25% -1.67% 23.62% 3.46% 28.32% 71.20%
IMO 36.51 0.70 1.95% 9.41% 9.05% -3.13% -64.89% -66.43% -63.34% -56.18%
PBR 89.31 1.42 1.62% 8.99% 12.95% -0.01% 19.53% 3.42% 25.31% 71.32%
STO 28.52 -0.40 -1.38% 7.95% 9.69% -4.49% 18.19% -0.90% 24.22% 40.49%
CVX 62.06 -0.39 -0.62% 5.71% 5.71% 2.16% 5.04% 6.07% 9.32% 10.98%
CEO 80.38 -0.41 -0.51% 5.67% 5.47% 4.93% 16.17% 2.26% 18.26% 35.50%
XOM 61.35 -1.02 -1.64% 5.59% 4.34% -0.49% 4.93% 0.38% 9.22% 6.75%
TOT 65.52 1.37 2.14% 5.10% 7.52% -0.70% -49.63% -50.64% -48.16% -43.93%
ECA 52.64 -0.32 -0.60% 4.65% 8.02% 1.21% 12.72% 8.99% 16.56% 32.96%

The major Canadian oil sands players were up about +10.0 pct this week. Wow.

Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada



Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)


The Basic Materials ETF (XLB) was #2 best sector performer this week -- up +3.75 pct.

This was largely a metals rally " partly to do with mergers and acquisitions and partly metals prices related. Precious metals and copper all were much higher in price W/W.

Here's the XLB Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Weekly Data

XLB Daily data:

XLB Daily Data

XLB Hourly data:

XLB Hourly Data

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
N 65.90 0.58 0.89% 13.11% 10.57% -0.51% 52.30% 28.44% 51.25% 74.57%
GGB 14.91 0.03 0.20% 11.19% 13.64% 1.08% -14.36% -33.05% -10.61% 53.24%
PKX 66.90 -0.65 -0.96% 9.47% 10.95% 2.56% 33.13% 5.82% 35.12% 52.15%
RIO 24.04 0.44 1.86% 9.22% 10.33% 1.43% 11.81% -0.37% 16.87% 64.21%
AA 32.36 0.46 1.44% 7.22% 7.54% -0.64% 8.23% 5.34% 9.44% 23.84%
BHP 43.07 0.73 1.72% 6.32% 7.92% 0.51% 23.06% 7.09% 28.87% 57.77%
ACH 74.70 -1.05 -1.39% 5.69% 6.71% -3.39% -5.92% -28.82% -2.15% 35.89%
NUE 54.25 -0.61 -1.11% 5.61% 7.32% 0.65% 56.43% 1.73% 62.62% 137.83%
RTP 209.71 -0.49 -0.23% 1.74% 4.47% -3.45% 11.07% 0.59% 14.73% 72.01%
PD 82.16 0.16 0.20% -0.95% 2.57% -5.50% 10.03% 0.83% 14.22% 77.64%

Phelps Dodge was not my favorite after making a misguided play to leverage their balance sheet further to take over Canada's Inco and Falco at a ridiculously high price. I still don't see that deal going ahead.

I'm thinking Xstrata wins the Falconbridge, and then the price of Inco falls to a price point that prudently managed Teck-Cominco steps in and makes the buy. Let's see how long the Zug metal men allow the South African Brascan Boys to stick around. Now that's something to wait for.

Btw, Teck-Cominco was NYSE-listed this week as TCK. So it's going onto the Cara 100 in place of Phelps Dodge.

But how about those goldminers? Over the past two weeks, Goldfields was up +26.6 pct, Glamis was up +19.8 pct, and Agnico-Eagle was up +18.8 pct.

And Goldfields was the winner of the group again this week, up +12.3 pct. Even the two largest gold producers zoomed. Newmont was up +6.1 pct and Barrick +5.0 pct this week.



Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)


The ETF for the Industrials and Transport sector, aka capital goods producers, (XLI) was up +1.71 pct W/W to 33.81.

Here's the XLI Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Weekly Data

XLI Daily data:

XLI Daily Data

XLI Hourly data:

XLI Hourly Data

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
CBE 92.92 0.46 0.50% 6.13% 7.71% 4.90% 25.77% 7.19% 27.29% 45.41%
ERJ 36.47 0.77 2.16% 5.80% 3.99% 5.07% -7.11% -2.15% -6.73% 10.28%
CAT 74.48 0.08 0.11% 3.24% 5.57% 2.29% 28.86% 2.87% 28.93% 56.31%
TYC 27.50 0.22 0.81% 2.69% 2.34% 0.00% -7.22% 0.70% -4.71% -5.82%
HON 40.30 0.34 0.85% 2.52% 3.39% -2.18% 7.58% -4.82% 8.19% 10.02%
UTX 63.42 0.13 0.21% 1.83% 2.70% 0.62% 12.19% 9.31% 13.43% 23.51%
MMM 80.77 -0.38 -0.47% 1.06% 0.32% -4.73% 2.10% 5.55% 4.22% 11.72%
GE 32.96 -0.31 -0.93% -0.60% -2.86% -4.90% -6.81% -4.88% -5.96% -4.88%
BA 81.91 -1.09 -1.31% -1.77% -4.24% -2.26% 16.45% 4.45% 16.61% 24.11%

In a Bull market, GE is one of the Generals (i.e., leaders); but the stock was down this week again, along with Boeing. BA dropped -1.8 pct W/W to $81.91, but is still up +16.5 pct in the 1H06.

With a market cap of over $350 billion, GE is almost as big as #1 Exxon Mobil (XOM: $370 billion), and often times is the largest cap on the board. So when typical core portfolio holding GE is down (almost -5.0 pct over the past year), portfolio performance suffers.

Yes, it is a strange bull market when GE and the U.S. consumer cyclicals and WMT are flat to down for so long.


Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was up +1.55 pct W/W to 33.39.

Still, the consumer group (discretionary, staples, health) were ranked #8, 7 and 10 respectively in performance this week. The broad market may have rallied, but this segment was lagging the others.

Here's the XLY Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Weekly Data

XLY Daily data:

XLY Daily Data

XLY Hourly data:

XLY Hourly Data

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
TM 104.59 2.36 2.31% 4.92% 3.89% -4.53% -2.12% -5.05% -0.03% 46.30%
SBUX 37.76 -0.21 -0.55% 3.45% 3.14% 4.92% 22.32% 0.61% 25.82% 46.19%
DIS 30.00 0.12 0.40% 3.02% 1.87% -2.02% 22.95% 7.64% 25.16% 19.14%
CCL 41.74 0.67 1.63% 2.33% 3.86% 3.99% -23.51% -11.40% -21.94% -23.48%
WHR 82.65 0.24 0.29% 1.29% 2.06% -7.65% -0.02% -9.63% -1.33% 17.89%
JCP 67.51 -0.18 -0.27% 0.01% 2.96% 4.18% 19.59% 10.31% 21.42% 28.39%
BC 33.25 0.90 2.78% -0.48% -2.61% -7.46% -18.54% -15.05% -18.22% -23.25%
EBAY 29.29 0.03 0.10% -2.37% -3.27% -10.24% -34.12% -25.45% -32.23% -11.27%
NKE 81.00 0.02 0.02% -3.98% -2.59% -0.97% -5.76% -4.71% -6.67% -6.47%

Disney (NYSE: DIS) was up +3.0 pct this week and Toyota Motor jumped +4.9 pct. Still, I wouldn't rush into the consumer stocks because I think it's going to be a long hot summer business wise. It was only a week ago that the General Motors CEO said that the sales environment today is "brutal".

And to move cars from inventory, most of the manufacturers are trotting out the employee, friends and family discounts again. That can't be good for profits.

I have to think that corporate profitability for the consumer sector is going to take a hit for the next couple quarters, and, if true, you know what that will mean to share prices.

After this "sucker" rally in the broad market, I think it is time to switch out of high growth stocks and into high dividend payers.

This is also a good time to be watching the market for stocks of high quality companies to be hitting new lows. These will likely be the first to rally in the next bull market.

For some readers, there is a new ETF product you might wish to consider. I wrote about it in 'New index ETF's for short sellers: why? Fri., June 23, 2006, 5:50 AM'

As this blog is a two-way path to education, information and facilitation, I did learn something here. I reconsidered and retracted my "sucker", "dog" and "bow-wow" comments.

A reader sent me this note when I questioned the cost:

"The merit of these ETF's is that I can now short through my retirement plan during market hours instead of through inverse funds at end of day prices. Is that worth 1%? To me it is. I would never use these in my taxable account where I have other options, but my guess is that they will become a valuable tool in many tax deferred accounts that are not permitted to short or sell puts. At certain times, it is much more attractive than simply sitting in cash; I think the demand for the option to short in retirement accounts is huge, if only because of the amount of money in them (personally, my retirement account is about four times the size of my taxable account). I agree this is an expensive option, but I am hopeful that competition will bring the price down. Right now, the ability to hedge a portfolio makes it worthwhile."

So, if, as an when the Bear returns (probably a few weeks), these inverse ETF's might be a suitable trade for some of you at that point.


Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was up +1.64 pct W/W to close at 24.19.

Just like the others in the consumer segment, nothing much is happening here.

It's a time to look to scale out of profitable positions unless you see a clear picture of growing revenues and earnings and dividends.

Here's the XLP Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


XLP Weekly data:


XLP Weekly Data

XLP Daily data:


XLP Daily Data


XLP Hourly data:


XLP Hourly Data

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
ABV 41.25 0.68 1.68% 8.35% 11.13% -5.13% 7.03% -2.07% 8.41% 33.50%
WFMI 64.64 0.32 0.50% 4.31% 3.96% -1.60% -16.16% -3.18% -16.47% 9.37%
MO 73.43 -0.46 -0.62% 3.06% 3.60% 0.80% -2.07% 2.38% -1.73% 13.56%
WAG 44.84 -0.43 -0.95% 2.82% 3.80% 5.13% -1.21% 3.03% 1.31% -2.50%
DEO 67.55 0.41 0.61% 1.27% 0.70% 0.31% 13.42% 5.94% 15.87% 13.91%
PEP 60.04 0.54 0.91% 0.92% 0.57% -1.04% 0.47% 3.32% 1.62% 11.33%
KO 43.02 -0.04 -0.09% 0.63% -0.44% -1.98% 5.18% 2.14% 6.72% 3.04%
WMT 48.17 -0.54 -1.11% 0.48% -0.29% 0.71% 4.20% 1.07% 2.93% -0.06%
BUD 45.59 -0.14 -0.31% 0.37% 0.15% -0.07% 4.40% 6.59% 6.12% -0.35%
PG 55.60 -1.39 -2.44% -0.23% 1.05% 3.06% -5.41% -3.52% -3.94% 5.40%

Whole Food Markets (WFMI) was finally up. In fact WFMI jumped +4.3 pct to $64.64. I hope the negative lobster story is over. Still, this Cara 100 company has an over-priced stock that is quite vulnerable to a Bear market sell-off.


Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The healthcare ETF (IYH) was up +1.09 pct W/W to close at 60.43, which was good for worst of the ten ETF's I follow.

Here's the IYH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:


IYH Weekly data:


IYH Weekly Data

IYH Daily data:


IYH Daily Data

IYH Hourly data:


IYH Hourly Data

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
DNA 81.80 1.67 2.08% 5.94% 3.41% -0.60% -12.98% -2.50% -11.57% 1.89%
PFE 23.47 0.23 0.99% 3.67% 0.17% -2.98% -1.30% -6.87% 0.64% -14.90%
GSK 55.80 0.84 1.53% 3.09% 3.64% -0.34% 9.50% 6.02% 10.54% 15.03%
NVS 53.92 0.51 0.95% 2.45% 2.98% -4.40% 0.84% -3.94% 2.74% 13.66%
BMY 25.86 0.16 0.62% 1.37% 2.70% 2.33% 11.27% 3.65% 12.53% 3.52%
AMGN 65.23 0.13 0.20% 0.46% -2.38% -5.71% -18.83% -10.18% -17.28% 7.89%
UNH 44.78 -0.23 -0.51% -0.99% 1.11% -4.68% -27.46% -20.41% -27.94% -14.12%
JNJ 59.92 0.03 0.05% -2.28% -2.85% -1.35% -2.77% 0.96% -0.30% -7.82%
AET 39.93 0.69 1.76% -2.54% 1.78% -1.58% -15.10% -20.12% -15.31% -3.57%
BMET 31.29 -0.59 -1.85% -10.55% -11.69% -12.84% -15.16% -13.18% -14.44% -9.64%

There was quite a rotation within this sector this week. The stocks of a few Cara 100 companies were hammered. Biomet (BMET) plunged -10.6 pct, Aetna (AET) dropped -2.5 pct and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) was down -2.3 pct W/W. Pfizer (PFE) was up +3.7 pct and Genentech up +5.9 pct.


Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

This week, the Wall Street and Big Media favorite Financial sector ETF XLF was up +2.28 pct to close Friday at 32.34.

Actually, XLF had a spectacular one hour this week; otherwise there was zero to write home about. You'll see that with a quick glance at the Hourly data chart.

The Fed raises the bank rate by +25 bp to a cycle high number and everybody jumps for joy? Now, really, what was going on here to pump the bond market, pump the bank stocks and send Maria Bartiromo and friends into orbit?

A little help from Dino Kos maybe?

I saw a lot of cheerleading this week, and I wish those tapes were on ROBTV, which is a Financial TV Network that responsibly offers Replays. I figure if Talking Heads are going to be Talking, then somebody ought to be archiving.

Then we'd have lots of proof to set up our Wall of Shame.


Here's the XLF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Weekly Data

XLF Daily data:

XLF Daily Data

XLF Hourly data:

XLF Hourly Data

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Sorted by 1-Week Price Performance
Symbol Close 1Day
Change
1Day
%Change
1W
%Change
2W
%Change
4W
%Change
YTD
%Change
3M
%Change
6M
%Change
12M
%Change
DB 112.50 1.80 1.63% 5.90% 7.71% -2.36% 13.11% -2.10% 16.14% 44.42%
MS 63.21 0.67 1.07% 5.88% 10.91% 4.32% 8.14% -0.64% 0.00% 0.00%
CSR 55.99 0.90 1.63% 4.73% 5.76% -5.34% 4.95% 0.54% 9.89% 43.05%
UBS 109.70 1.32 1.22% 4.13% 6.67% -4.95% 11.13% 0.50% 15.29% 40.91%
LEH 65.15 0.57 0.88% 3.89% 2.84% -3.52% 0.32% -9.22% 1.67% 31.24%
JPM 42.00 -0.68 -1.59% 2.76% 4.58% -4.13% 4.50% 1.13% 5.82% 18.91%
HBC 88.35 0.80 0.91% 2.52% 1.46% 0.95% 8.17% 5.18% 9.79% 10.92%
MER 69.56 -0.52 -0.74% 2.29% 3.43% -4.75% 1.61% -11.11%