Bill-

THAT was about the worst combination The Bulls could have hoped for. Reality is biting them in the @ss right about now.

I thought GDX was looking toppy and GLD extended so I am watching like a hawk. I am betting optionoracle has already taken some profits here.

Observe any prominent stock ticker of less than 1 billion sharews outstanding at this moment and you will observe something very interesting: Those selling into this market at the 50 - 1000 shares traders; those buying into this market are the >= 10000 block trades. Ignore the Cisco's, the Microsoft's, the Intels, those types of issues have too many shares outstanding (>5 billion) to give reliable indications. At the end of the day the market may trade lower, but study who are buying vs. those who are selling, IMHO

Sure, if you are a trader you can try to game this thing. The market is overvalued (don't give me that projected earnings horsecrap) and the internal action is poor. I'll buy it after it's cheap again. I am not chasing points here.

I continue to be "nickeled and dimed" by the price increases in everyday basic needs for living here in the midwest. Any observations by others? I noticed that homebuilders are up today. I read that in Britain, which is usually a year ahead of us in economic trends, that home prices, after being down moderately, are up 5% recently. Is the house ATM going to die a violent death here or are the central bankers going to save the dollar at the cost of stagflation? Any thoughts here? What should Bernake do right now?

I continue to be "nickeled and dimed" by the price increases in everyday basic needs for living here in the midwest. Any observations by others? I noticed that homebuilders are up today. I read that in Britain, which is usually a year ahead of us in economic trends, that home prices, after being down moderately, are up 5% recently. Is the house ATM going to die a violent death here or are the central bankers going to save the dollar at the cost of stagflation? Any thoughts here? What should Bernanke do right now?

Already, today:

MMM falls 7% on 2Q earnings warning. Balances the MO jumpstart to the Dow yesterday)

SBUX falls 7% on weak June sales.

AMD falls 3% on 2Q revenue outlook.

Re:
"Sure, if you are a trader you can try to game this thing."

I totally agree with your observation; however, some are buying large while others are selling small. We can't ignore the fact that when this market reverses itself some will be well positioned at the early stage of the move while others will be forever chasing it.

Our very upscale Chicago suburb had 34 homes for sale in June of '05 between $1M -$2M. Today that number is 110. Hundreds of thousands being lopped from asking prices as a bit of upper-lip sweating has been noticeable around town. How many will fit through the exit door before passing breakeven is anyone's guess. Sitting happily with no mortgage, I watch. Yes, the housing ATM phenomenon is about over. Oh yes, and 40% of the last 2 million new jobs created in the US were housing-related. That growth is also now on life-support, as latest numbers are demonstrating.

"I noticed that homebuilders are up today."

I think the HBs are still correcting after their steep drops in April/May. In recent weeks they have shown a tendency to rally on the slightest pretext, such as today's job numbers giving hope the Fed will ease interest rates. And this correction has been on very moderate volume, to put it charitably.

I also find it very curious that this sector moves in virtual lockstep. Today's exception is Brookfield Homes, which revealed accelerating decreases in orders and closing last night.

The fundamentals underlying the housing market continue to erode. And I am very dubious of comparisons to the housing market in GB. Did GB have inventory levels this high, rising interest rates, unprecedentedly high home ownership rates and low affordability, $2 trillion in ARMs resetting? And, finally, was it in the early stages of a recession?

"we should not count successful the wrestler that is still in the ring." solon the lawgiver of athens.

the above sentiment notwithstanding, and i don't want to jinx anything, i gotta say mr. cara's call is looking pretty sweet here. while there has been a lot of selling early on a friday and we all know programs can still bring it back, it is significant to see that the themes apparent today seem to dovetail with the work offered by this blogger. intraday, the s&p is holding up but the VIX is showing little fear. the tick and the trin are showing no panic, no trepidation. i'm short and i have a feeling i'm going to have a long, nervous afternoon.

To number2son:
Yes, yes, yes, yes,.......and more yes's, according to a recent post and previous posts by The Economist. I know Europe is stll "flatin", ditto China, and Japan hasn't raised interest rates yet. I know your short the homies and for very good reasons I might add, but .........

"We can't ignore the fact that when this market reverses itself some will be well positioned at the early stage of the move while others will be forever chasing it."

Sure, but if you are talking about me I don't need to chase this market. I don't need to chase STOCKS period. I can find 10-30% returns elsewhere if I choose.

If this thing shaves off 20% by October, I'll look at it again. If not, I'll wait. In the meantime I'll look at my other alternatives while my cash is earning 5%+. Perhaps I'll put together a commercial real estate deal. Perhaps I'll buy into an existing business. Who knows? But I don't pay retail. Let others chase their tails.

Markm_

Trust me, the above quote was NOT meant to be a personal affront to you. I was IMHO, just engaged in impersonal banter between two Market observers with slightly different perspective of its direction. On thing, is certain, at the end-of-the-day someone is going to be right on the money, someone will be totally wrong, and the rest will be on the fence.

"On thing, is certain, at the end-of-the-day someone is going to be right on the money, someone will be totally wrong, and the rest will be on the fence. "
Well said Oratier. Well said !
Based on past experience, I have noticed that large market players often buy into the market in large blocks right before they unload large positions. Selling into a falling market is undesirable for those institutions with large positions. Therefore they have to take the market up, before selling. The large buying blocks will cause money on the sidelines to jump in on the long side thus, creating the added upward momentum for the large player to dump their postion.

MarkM-

Many may be wishing they were getting 5% by October!

TYX- continues downtrend vs 90 day and 5 yr. Broken chart appears headed lower. Like the long end here.

Looking like another flight to safety day, why don't I listen to you?

Because I'm just another Schmoe with an opinion, that's why.