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July 26, 2006

Tough sledding ahead for GM, Wed., July 26, 2006, 11:47 AM

Professor Peter Morici of the Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, is of the same mind as me with respect to the future of General Motors.

Before I go further, let me say that I have not opined on the GM stock price recently. I called it a "speculation" that I would avoid. I don't do wildcat oil drilling in Texas either, for much the same reason.

That's not to say that the price or short-term success would not go higher; it's just that I won't be around. What comes to mind is the TV commercial for a financial services company that mocks the lottery system as being the retirement plan of too many people.

I trade in instruments I understand, and I don't have the time or patience needed to get into the rest. There are maybe 50,000 instruments in the world worthy of trading " to some people. To me, I have time (some days) to watch a basket of 100. If I get an assistant, I'll bump that number up to 250, but not 2,500 or 25,000.

Traders need to focus on what they feel the can succeed at. If your reach is further than your grasp, you'll fail. I call it the ‘man swimming with gold bricks in both hands' syndrome. In shark infested waters nonetheless.

In any event, Prof. Morici has this to say about GM:



"Today, GM reported a second quarter loss of $3.179 billion dollar, or $5.62 per share.

Deducting expenses for restructuring, GM scored an operating profit $1.153 billion or 2.04 per share. GM's North American operations continued to lose money but those loses were cut to $85 million form $1.1 billion a year ago.

While the profit on ordinary operations is good news that will please investors, GM's situation remains worrisome.

During the first half of 2006, GM sold fewer cars than in 2005; these sales were at better prices and closer to those commanded by Toyota, significantly improving GM's net.

However, GM made more cars this year than last year, and faces the tough task of clearing out a lot of inventory.

..........................Jan - June 2006..............Jan - June 2005
Production...............2,347,312.......................2,296,518
Sales.......................2,037,136.......................2,321,696
Difference..................310,176..........................(25,176)

GM will likely have to cut prices, through incentives, and mark down the value of its inventory. Marking down inventory for clearance sales could well throw GM into the red in the third or fourth quarters.

This illustrates GM's rock and hard place. If GM makes only what it can sell at prices approaching those charged by Toyota, GM's vehicle development costs are spread across too few vehicles and it loses money. If it makes enough cars to cover its vehicle development costs, it must lower prices too much to sell what it makes, and it loses money anyway.

With a $40 dollar an hour labor cost disadvantage vis-a-vis its Japanese rivals producing in North America, GM remains a troubled company. Only by cutting its labor costs can GM make and sell a volume of cars that permit it to cover both its production and vehicle development costs.

Any merger or joint venture that fails to address the labor cost issue will not make this company viable.

The failure of Rick Wagoner and the GM Board to clearly articulate that challenge indicates a crisis in management and corporate governance."



Rick Wagoner seems to be a good guy. The fact he holds a degree in Economics and a Harvard MBA does not impress me. Some time ago I suggested that if these degrees were in engineering or psychology from a school in or near Tokyo, I might take note.

I only care about a company's financial structure, earnings and revenue growth, operating margins, and so forth. General Motors has been having its lunch eaten for many years. Maybe Wagoner is an effective turnaround manager, and maybe he's not.

For the GM worker's sake, I hope he is. GM offers good jobs. Maybe the cost of those jobs is too high in today's world.

But isn't that a problem in America today: shaft the worker; the appetite of private equity is an endless pit. GM is to them just a place for fees and charges to be made. To these bloodsuckers, preying on the GM's and Ford's is just part of the industrial death and renewal cycle that has gone on since well before the time of buggy whips.

Mom & Pop should just stay away. Life's too short to worry over the problems of others. Yes, it can be entertaining -- even a good MBA school case study -- to muse over issues such as GM presents. I'm not looking to the market to do anything more than trade in prices I can get my head around.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 26, 2006 11:47:02 AM | Category: Situational Investing

Discourse

Wagoner doesn't seem a turn-around manager; he's a "stick-around" manager. He was there while the crisis unfolded, and he'll "stick around" till he's thrown out. Or at least, that's my impression.

There was an AMAZING feature in yesterday's WSJ about private equity operators taking over a company and then charging fees, and paying themselves dividends (with borrowed money) which pay down their risk capital before any turnaround has created value.

Why would the lenders go along? "Hey, we'll charge our fees, you charge yours ... " Just another area where Bill's "humongous bank and broker" is able to play both sides against the middle = middle CLASS.

Posted by: Jock [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 26, 2006 11:57 AM [link]

I really dont know much about the finances of GM and quite frankly i really dont care, i will leave it to the specialists, but, one thing that i do know is that if they are able to get it through thier minds that by building a better vehicle, one that is fuel efficient along with being reliable, with parts that last longer, the consumer just may take a long and harder look at their products, gee, are their a few Japenese companies that do this ? I can recall during the seventies as a teen working for a used car dealer jockeying cars to the auction in Cooksville just outside of Toronto. I happened to be just going in to the owners office as he was yelling and screaming at some Japenese gentleman and ordering them off of his premisis, i asked him what it was all about and he said that these fellows were from a company from Japan, Toyota to be exact who were looking to expand their dealer network but they expected him to pay for and keep parts in his shop in advance, this is what he really balked at. How many times do you think he has kicked his behind since then. Lesson learned i guess, and just why does it seem to take Ford and GM just as long to learn their lessons. In the meantime, i think the both these companies are headed for restructering, this brings Stelco to my mind, the place of my employment, things dont look good there, especially at the old Hilton
Works, now Hamilton Steel, this place will not be here three years from now, the moves are all of a bandaid variety and the old management is still there, all moves of management have basically been of a sideways shuffle and this is SCARY. I just hope that the shareholders of the car companies and also the employees are not put through the ordeal that went on in our community. As citizens we must not only demand more from our elected officials but we must be more involved and hold them accountable, not just by voting them out but by demanding justice, and the only way to do this is to become more involved, either politically or by more demonstrations. If and when the time comes for these auto companies to go through the process, the union leaders and workers can take a cue from the leadership of local 1005, Rolf Gerstenberger, on what active demonstration and political awareness can do to help the cause, ie, refuse to be screwed.

Posted by: tgifbipo [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 26, 2006 12:26 PM [link]

Bill-

Thanks for your thoughtful insight on General Motors(GM). GM is a member of the Dow 30 stocks (out of 25,000) you recommend the average Mom and Pop follow: i.e "the individual Dow 30 stocks to all investors for the simple reason that most of us know something about these quality companies, and traders know that their share prices tend to revert to the mean. Therefore, with the Dow 30 components, it's easier to manage market risk. Still, the Dow 30 Industrials group, which I refer to collectively as Humungous Corp, are all engaged in global operations, which is inherently risky."

And as for Professor Peter Morici - I live in the Northeast and is somewhat familiar with his work and wonder how many shares of GM he has ever owned? Those who can do and those who can't teach and one can't report accurately on a war unless they visit the trenches.

Posted by: oratier [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 26, 2006 1:14 PM [link]