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July 24, 2006

The resolve of gold traders is being tested, Mon., July 24, 2006, 11:59 PM

At the end of the day, if you make the right call, people call you Genius or perhaps Lucky. If it goes the other way, you are called Loser.

But who really cares what the label is if in fact you stick to your resolve for reasons that made and still make good sense?

Some of you will scoff at this suggestion. You'll say that the name of the game is to make money; principal over principle, and all that stuff.

My point is that traders need a lot of self-confidence in order to take risks. How you gain that self-confidence is by having a plan, and that includes strategies and tactics based on a knowledge of " you got it " principles of how markets work.

Every now and then, market prices go against you. Let's not say why " it could be for any number of reasons, and the objective of trading is not to complain but to figure it out and position yourself where risks are lowest and profit potential is greatest.

So overnight Wednesday through late this morning (NY time), spot gold took a nose dive from 645 to a low today of 601.60. That is a big move in three days, and long positions suffered accordingly.

Why did it happen? Probably, a lot of the cause was the story out of China that the recent +12 pct economic growth number was unacceptably high and the monetary authorities would have to tighten credit, raise interest rates, strengthen the Yuan, and so forth.

Apparently the story is that the authorities would like to restrict the growth in China to about +6 pct Y/Y. If true, that would have a material impact on the need for commodities such as copper. Ergo, commodity prices fell, and gold is a leading metals commodity.

But those of us who have thought through the various factors that are likely to drive gold prices in the next several years had to take a second look at these events and question why gold should be hammered down so much. After all, a higher Yuan means a lower USD, which means a higher gold price.

Consequently we held steadfastly to the principle that a falling USD, a strong China economy (even one that would be growing only twice as fast as the U.S. economy), a continuing U.S. twin deficit, continued war, more inflation data on trend to move higher, and so forth, would mean a higher gold price.

Resolve. There is no better word for it.

Just before noon today, the spot gold market lifted from its 601.60 low and within a half day rallied to a high of 619.40. So what took three full days to drive gold down just over $40, the market bought back by almost half that in just a half day.

And just think, spot gold, without fanfare, has already moved back +3.0 pct since hitting the low just prior to noon, and the Dow/Nasdaq combined moved up +1.87 pct today and the world was abuzz.

Your patience in gold will be rewarded. Admittedly your resolve is being tested. But at the end of the day, the USD will not win this war against the gold price.

There are just too many principles supporting the growing army that is marching down that yellow brick road.



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Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 24, 2006 11:59:39 PM | Category: Bullion

Discourse

Bill,

I have a question regarding trading many of the Cara 100 stocks. Here, you mention that USD will continue to fall, and that we will see Gold prices rise. What should someone who has Canadian dollars do if they want to build a balanced portfolio that includes quality stocks like the US listed companies in the Cara 100? Would it be worthwhile to take the currency exchange hit and buy into USD at this point (in the next couple of months), preparing for the bottoming of the US markets in the next few months?

Posted by: Fazeli [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 12:14 AM [link]

No easy ride, that for sure. Consider the higher low today and you can force an uptrend channel...


Posted by: real1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 25, 2006 2:59 PM [link]

"Force" is the operative word here. Multiple closes below 620 would be near term bearish. I do not like the fact that the 50 dma could turn down toward the 200dma if we don't get some positive action. That would confirm a lower highs/lower lows look to the charts.

Signed,
The Reluctant Gold Bull

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 26, 2006 10:19 AM [link]