Today a reader sent me mail about how poorly the great thinkers of the modern era have done in the market.

Bill, I have some observations that might shed a different light on this "global economy". I see that Einstein had 9 "affairs" besides his marriages and also lost most of his money in the Great Depression. And we all know that Sir Isaac Newton, the other most significant genius in the last 500 years, lost all his money in the South Seas Bubble. So economics is nothing more and nothing less than a game, a dance if you will, as you have stated so many times. /Alan

Re Einstein and Newton, it goes to show you cannot out-think the market. You do, nonetheless, have to think it through. More than any other factor, however, I believe that the successful trader is one who observes people and can predict what they are likely to do in various circumstances.

I like to think I am an acute observer of people.

At the Nassau airport on Thursday afternoon, I was having a drink at the terminal lounge bar when an older woman came by to hug the young bartender. After less than a minute, she departed. I said to the bartender that I believed the other woman came from the small family island of Long Island (population just over 3,000). The woman was called back by the bartender and she said she was head of security " and from Long Island, which has about 1 pct of the total Bahamas population. "You must be Bahamian!" she yelled out.

The previous day, I ran across an ex-police officer watching a news announcement on a TV in a hotel lobby. I stopped to discuss the events, and a couple minutes later I said, I'll bet your family came from Cat Island. He was shocked that I figured it out. "You are good, man. How did you know?" You see, Cat Island has fewer than 2,000 residents.

A couple years ago in Bahamas I did the same with the administrator of the Paradise Island Water Company, the Manager of the Royal Bank of Scotland, and a cab driver. These people are always amazed.

So now I am five for five. I feel a bit like Henry Higgins in George Bernard Shaw's Pygmalion.

The point is that I listen and observe people as more than a hobby. I find it is a very important skill to have in capital markets trading.