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July 28, 2006

The Net represents the "New Microsoft", Fri., July 28, 2006, 11:36 AM

Does Google own the Internet space or is Microsoft going to make a big enough wave there to challenge?

One thing Microsoft has going for it is its incredible market share of the desktop PC software. It is such a cash cow that I often refer to Microsoft as a bank. Every couple years they merely print more money. This (coming) year's mega-USD minted edition is called Vista.

That near monopoly position is hard to bet against. So, while the Internet market represents the game plan for Microsoft, it is software like Vista that pays the bills, and that isn't going away anytime soon.

Google, on the other hand, is in hand-to-hand combat with a growing number of guerrilla forces, all looking for a piece. As good as they are, Google could soon hit the Law of Big Numbers that once hit Microsoft. But they don't have a Vista putting money into the bank every year.

Based on past operating metrics, I couldn't possibly consider Microsoft for the Cara 100. But you know, maybe (like Altria) there is a personal bias involved here because I pull out my hair every day for the software "issues" I face with Microsoft. I really ought to focus on the company, and what expert analysts are opining for their future.

The UBS report on Microsoft is available here. Revenue and EBIT growth continues to smoke, and the cash is being returned in the form of share buy-backs and capex.

What's not to like?

Microsoft will definitely go into the Cara 250. :-)

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 28, 2006 11:36:24 AM | Category: 45 Info Technology

Discourse

There are many companies we hate but can't live without. These companies have incredible moat. Microsoft is definitely one of them. The only problem is their huge market cap. Microsoft ought to consistently buy back shares and increase dividend like MO. Investors then will like it better and bid up its price.

Posted by: yc32 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 28, 2006 11:54 AM [link]

Based on Rydex data posted yesterday I would say traders have little interest in technology.

I know MarkM has told me to ignore chart patterns in this kind of market, but isn't that a text book inverse H&S pattern on MSFT... confirmed by volume pattern? Price projects to $26, which often is exceeded in this pattern. $27 closes the gap.

long MSFT

Posted by: stockman [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 8:36 AM [link]

I think that was said in the midst of the sell-off . The selling pressure has eased in the past week or so. Different market now.

We were discussing trendlines and support and it is my firm belief that in that environment they have little practical application except as "things to watch". Support at 620 )(twice) didn't help gold did it? (Yikes.) At that time it was my opinion that you couldn't trade off the trendline and my results proved it (again, ouch).

No opinion on MSFT.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 29, 2006 1:42 PM [link]