Bill-

As I pointed out earlier, this was a "flight to quality" day with the Dow 30, consumer staples and healthcare on top of the buy lists. Broader market was weak. Now that the ST bounce is nearly over I think traders are doing exactly what you say above.

MarkM-

We may have been seeing some hunkering down ahead of the number- just in case ADP is on to something. Up to this point the RUT has done nothing wrong. RUT:SPX trend looks good. I thing the EFA:SPX, OIL:SPX, GLD:SPX look good as well. The NDX on the other hand looks terrible. Is that the tell? I don't think so, but possible. The RUT has been the better high beta tell over the past 3 years so that and the others mentioned are my focus.

From a short term perspective... if you were long for a 2-6 week summer rally, then a pullback that lasts a few days (without a real break down) is something you would expect, even consider healthy. We have done little to reverse the negative sentiment, it usually takes some time and price to get that done.

Again JMHO. Those new proshare inverse etf's are something to look at as well for the 'melt down' phase.

Oh no another warning...

After the last one we better listen. Also thanks for all the suggested safe havens.

The Pring stuff is great too particularly on intermarket analysis.

I just noticed today that there are several new currency etf's from Rydex. I have not looked into the fees and what not of them but maybe they are worth considering.

Cheers,
Andrew

Bill (and cast),

Any opinions about buying preferred stocks from solid companies to generate income? I've been looking into it and was wondering about the "gotchas".

Thanks,
Miggs

I know that your analysis looks over a few months but I thought I"d add that two guys that I read and respect, Glen Neely from Neowave and Robert McHugh, both have been stating that they believe that the next big down wave starts end of this week or worst case early next week for a steep 3 or 4 week drop. Neely specifically has been calling this thing almost dead-on for the last 30 to 60 days (last week he was uncanny with his calls). I think getting the specific timing down is difficult but its worth keeping this in the back of your mind if the market starts to decline again.

Thanks Bill for your alert, and thanks for all the comments.
I am just wondering if buying Canadian equities listed in US exchanges, such as GG and ECA, is an effective hedge to USD?

I don't see options listed on the GLD and SLV. I don't think the SLV has been listed long enough to meet the requirements for options to be traded, has it? Dunno why there are none on the GLD. But I guess buying the calls on the futures would be about the same thing?

As ever, Bill, thanks for the guidance. Those who take it will prosper. I especially like the CAD reco. Anybody who turned dollars into loonies would have earned somewhere around 20% over the past 12 months from that simple move. Parity is around the corner.

stockman-

According to R. Russsell, Lowry's Buying Demand hit a 16 year low WEDNESDAY. Watch your trendline breaks, such as they are. This is a BS rally.

Are there any etf s on the canadian exchanges that mirror the us for these purposes, like to keep my money in the loonie

121m jobs? so much for ADP's crystal ball.

But is ADP using a crystal ball?

I thought they were basically the nations real time, hired by industry, record keeper to churn out a payroll for real live people.

Is this another case of the FED misleading us a tad?

NT was at 135k jobs, based on their own work showing a slowing economy. Interesting the number of 'analyst' which revised their own forecast based on ADP's work.

NT is a good free resource-

http://www.ntrs.com/pws/jsp/display2.jsp?XML=pages/nt/0601/1138283678319_6.xml&TYPE=interior

Bill, Looking at this morning's nasty job's report and watching the futures dive--this makes your entry particularly prescient. Now please do not injure your back bowing in front of the mirror again!

Andrew--FWIW--Profunds and Rydex have funds on a weakening dollar based on the USD index. These are not ETFs and their total fees probably exceed ETFs. But instead of being based on a individual currency like the FXE (Euro), the USD index includes a basket of Euro, yen, swiss franc, Canadian dollar, and others. I'm on the road up in Michigan and don't have figures handy, but I think the Euro makes up about 53-55% of the index. The Rydex fund is leveraged at 200% so any move up or down is magnified @ twice what Profunds does.

There are also some Citibank notes based on Asian currencies that trade on the big board but I'd recommend reading the prospectus first.

Disclosure: I've parked some money in all mentioned above (except FXE) long term and remain until I see a strong reversal which would occur when the G-20 decides to do something like Bill has alluded to in the past.

Observe any prominent stock ticker (10000 block traders. Ignore the Cisco's, the Microsoft's ,the Intels, those issues have too many shares outstanding (>5 billion) to give reliable indications. At the end of the day the market may trade lower, but study who are buying vs. those who are selling, IMHO

Correction to 9:40 a.m. post above: Citibank notes trade on the AMEX.

Seamus,

These are new etf's that were just launched.
the tickers are:
FXM-Mexican Peso
FXS- Swedish Krona
FXa- Aussie Dollar
FXB- British pound
FXC- Canadian Dollar
FXF- Swiss Franc

all added to the Euro etf FXE.

Expenses are .4%
All fund have a yeild based on overnight rates of the respective currency which will offset fees.

These are new so if anyone has done more research please comment.

Cheers,
Andrew

Question on the puts recommendations for the experts:

About a month ago, the recommendation here was to buy puts on QQQ not DIA. Why DIA now?

2nd, on the execution, would you buy puts for Sep, Dec Jan or ? and at at what strike price 100, 105, 108? There must be an optimal way of doing it. Can an options experts shed any light?

Thanks.

Now that the subject of shorting the market within IRA accounts has been opened, I would like to pass along some of my experience with mutual funds that do that. We (wife and I) hold Profund Ultrashort OTC -- USPIX -- which designed to provide twice the opposite of the return of the NASDAQ 100. Same comnpany offers Ultrabear -- URPIX -- designed to provide twice the opposite of the return of the S&P 500. Bith funds have a $15,000 minimum. We also own BEARX -- the Prudent Bear which has a gold componet along with shorts. That seems made for the current market. The Prudent Bear family also has a quality Prudent Global Income Fund --PSAFX -- that will almost certainly benefit by puttinmg decling $USD's into foreign government bonds. All above funds are nicely outperforming the US markets. The jewel in our collection which we started nibbling at when Bill turned bullish on gold 18 months ago, is US World Precious Minerals Fund -- UNWPX -- up 96% for the year ending 6/30/06 and up another 2% since 7/6/06

ursus-

I haven't changed my opinion on which index will lead the way down. It will continue to be the Naz. There are too many safehaven names in the Dow to consider that as my short opportunity. JMHO.