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July 11, 2006

Ivanhoe Mining remains a "special" situation, Tues., July 11, 2006, 10:11 AM

The UBS research team has reported today on the jurisdictional issues in Mongolia that are impacting Ivanhoe Mining (NYSE and TSX: IVN). Download UBS July 11 report on IVN.

IVN is not on my Buy list; the stock, however, is a "special situation". By that I mean that something in the stock will cause it to attain very high prices to the consternation of disbelievers.

In the case of Ivanhoe Mining, the focus is on talented promoter Robert Friedland. The operative word is "promoter".

In any stock promotion there will be (i) a "compelling" story, (ii) a network of information distribution, and (iii) numerous financial advisors who in effect pass the good word (??) to their clients.

Consequently, the buying comes in waves, and astute traders remain on stand-by during these opportunistic times.

Successful traders who make trading decisions related to such situations have always studied the modus operandi of the promoter. In Robert Friedland's case, I have put in the necessary hours of study. At certain times (not today), I have been a major trader of Friedland's stocks.

These days, I don't have sufficient time to monitor "special" situations as closely as I'd like. But I know many of you do. With IVN you will have to avoid the media stories, and pay special attention to price and volume, including options price and volume.

At the end of the day, if you are nimble, you ought to do well. The mining property of Ivanhoe Mining is apparently an excellent one, and Friedland is a superb promoter. The wild card is Mongolia.

But rather than read anything in the media about that, just pay attention to price and volume. There are big traders involved and they know the facts " minute by minute " and occasionally are known to even have a media story or two published.

The point is " don't allow media to play you when you trade "special" situations.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 11, 2006 10:11:53 AM | Category: Special Situation Equities , Special Situation Equities

Discourse

I wonder if this part of the equation was considered by UBS?

OR could this be some of the ‘compelling' story and ‘network of distribution started by Robert Friedland.

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, Jul 11, 2006
Gene Wusaty, President of the Coal Division of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., and David Owens, President of Asia Gold Corp., announced today that Ivanhoe Mines and Asia Gold have signed a definitive agreement for the coal reorganization announced on April 26, 2006 whereby Asia Gold will acquire Ivanhoe Mines' Coal Division by issuing 82,576,383 shares of Asia Gold to Ivanhoe Mines.

The coal reorganization, which remains subject to regulatory and shareholder approval, will result in Asia Gold becoming a majority-owned, publicly traded subsidiary of Ivanhoe Mines, with a coal division and a precious and base metals exploration division. Ivanhoe Mines is Asia Gold's largest shareholder, currently owning approximately 47% of Asia Gold's outstanding shares. If the reorganization is completed, Ivanhoe Mines will own approximately 90% of the issued and outstanding shares of Asia Gold. As such, the coal reorganization is a "related party transaction" under TSX Venture Exchange rules and policies and is subject to approval by a majority of the votes cast by Asia Gold's minority shareholders at a special meeting scheduled for August 8, 2006.


Long IVN

Posted by: C.Note [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 11, 2006 12:33 PM [link]

Bill,

Coincidently, earlier today I re-published two articles regarding mining and nationalism
On http://cmd-chart.blogspot.com

My point was not to attack one company or another but to warn investors about what I believe is a trend .

"
I expect that this trend will continue. Investors and International companies must understand that natural resources are major income source for many developing nations.

Again, not unjustified in my opinion.

"

Regarding IVN.TO , I really know nothing about the company fundamentals and certainly not qualified to make an opinion but I will look at some charts and will post something at

http://goldandsilverstocks.blogspot.com

Regards

T.C

Posted by: real1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 11, 2006 2:19 PM [link]

To All,

Bill has mentioned the stock TLT more than a few times when he talks about bonds. I understand that it trades 30 year T-bonds, but I don't understand how the movement of the price is related to the 30 year T-bond.

Also, is there a way to purchase Gold options? There doesn't seem to be a way trade options for GLD, but for the miners index GDX I was able to find options. Has anyone else found a way to trade options for the actual price of gold?

Learning as much as I can,
-Quentusrex

Posted by: Quentusrex [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 11, 2006 4:15 PM [link]

If you must...

GOLD OPTIONS

A gold option provides an investor the right to buy or sell gold at a fixed price at some specified future date. The price of an option is called the premium which is a means by which the buyer compensates the seller for granting the option. With options, the buyer's downside risk is strictly limited to the cost of the option - i.e. the premium plus any transaction costs. GOLD FUTURES OPTIONS are traded on recognized commodity exchanges.

http://www.usafutures.com/goldfuturesoptions.html

Posted by: oratier [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 11, 2006 5:37 PM [link]

And while TLT trades like a stock, it's really an ETF (exchange traded fund)...

Shares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund - TLT Logo
Last Sale Net Change Volume IIV Last Updated
$84.64 0.27 423,800 $84.60 07/11/2006 4:00 PM ET



"iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund seeks investment results that, before expenses, generally correspond to the price and yield performance of the Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index. iShares are exchange traded securities that represent ownership in over 60 different index funds compiled by one of following index providers: Standard & Poor's (a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.), Dow Jones & Company, Frank Russell Company, Cohen & Steers Capital Management, Inc., the Nasdaq Stock Market, Inc., Goldman, Sachs & Co., Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc., and Lehman Brothers. There is no assurance that the price and yield performance of the benchmark index for each fund can be fully matched."

Posted by: oratier [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 11, 2006 7:17 PM [link]

Posted by: real1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 12, 2006 4:41 AM [link]