Xstrata has raised its unsolicited all-cash bid for Falconbridge (FAL) from C$59 per share to $62.50 plus a special dividend of $0.75, for a total of $63.25.

Inco (N) has increased its bid for FAL to C$17.50 cash plus 0.55676 of an Inco share for each share of Falconbridge plus a special dividend from friendly Falco of $0.75, which I suppose works out to $61.09. ROBTV reported the offer was worth $62.77. The problem however is that traders want cash.

A combined Inco-Phelps Dodge deal, which ROBTV referred to as a "look-through" reportedly worth $64.11 is also likely to fail. I can hear the cheering from Phelps-Dodge (PD) shareholders.

The fifth player, Teck (TCK), says it has no plans to raise its bid for Inco. Apparently.

A few thoughts "

(i) Inco's Scott Hand ought to be ready to retire now. But at least he has gotten so used to reading a script and wearing the character make-up applied for the multiple TV appearances, he might now consider a job in Hollywood.

(ii) The best mining operator of the group, which is Teck, just might stick around long enough to take out Inco.

(iii) Xstrata might take over Falco slowly, not at one decisive step. Just like Falco once was, Swiss-based Xstrata is run by a South African bean-counter who is London England-based. He's an exceptional trader who is more interested in beans than nickel, but to his credit, he leaves the operations of the Xstrata stable of companies to their own devices.

(iv) The prize ought to be the combined Sudbury nickel operations of Inco-Falco, and not one without the other. As a Canadian, I'd like to see Vancouver-based Teck be the winner of the Sudbury nickel operations, and let Xstrata have the rest. I'd like to see Toronto, not London, retain its dominance in mine financing. That's a personal bias that has zero to do with my trading or my advice.

(v) As for Phelps-Dodge, this was recently dropped from my Cara 100 list. I think they are over-reaching for Inco-Falco and have not proven themselves to be the company that Teck is.