From your Econoday favorite:

"Consumer Credit, M/M change
Actual $4.4B
Consensus $2.5B
Consensus Range $1.3B to $5.0B
Previous $ 10.6 B




Highlights
Consumer credit rose $4.4 billion in May as a gain in revolving credit, up $6.6 billion, offset a $2.2 billion decline in nonrevolving credit that reflected soft vehicle sales. Having drained their savings and no longer turning to home equity loans, consumers may now be turning to their credit cards. Limited financing options, combined with soft job growth, may point to slower gains ahead for retail sales."

THAT IS NOT GOOD.

I hope they did not make you drink that beer from a bedpan, which is the hasher newbee ritual out here. ;^0

http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/index.asp

" Global economic momentum is beginning to cool, led by the U.S. "

http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/2006/07/technology_sect.html

Technology Sector: 52 Week Lows

Fifteen S&P 500 stocks hit 52-week lows today, and only four of them were not in the technology sector.

The Consumer Credit report is more evidence of the "credit bubble", of which the so-called housing bubble is just a symptom.

I have a colleague who is leaving our company to move to a new state. She and her husband bought a new home last year and now it is complete. Despite months of trying, they have been unable to sell their current home. But they are going to move anyway. She had no contingency in place and they didn't want to cancel the new home, or rent, and she told me they will "live on plastic" to tide them over.

I hope I am wrong, but they may be a textbook example of how badly this will end for a lot of people.

From stockman's BCA:

"The silver lining as global growth decelerates is that inflationary pressures should abate and calm fears of excessive monetary tightening. The downside is that growth-sensitive assets such as commodity prices and emerging market and small cap stocks will remain under pressure. "

Everyone is repeating this mantra that inflation abates as economies cool. What if the inflation is STRUCTURAL not CYCLICAL, eh? Then you get a cooling economy accompanied by high inflation. I am betting that inflation remains persistent even as we slow. We'll see.

Re:
"I hope I am wrong, but they may be a textbook example of how badly this will end for a lot of people"

Unfortunately for the U.S. real estate sellers among us, this may be the beginning of a buyers' market(at basement prices). In a free market economy one fact remain sacrosanct: the markets will fluctuate.
First time home buyers, young people (speculators stay home) - its time to go bargain hunting. And be patient and you will buy at your price).

Bill, I think that is supposed to be "drinkers with a running problem". Good luck on your new exercise....

In the June 21, 2006 Federal Register the CFTC announced it is conducting a comprehensive review of the Commitments of Traders (COTS)Reporting Program. It includes a request for comments.

http://www.cftc.gov/foia/fedreg06/foi060621a.htm

The Weekly Silver Commentary by Theodore Butler (http://www.24hgold.com/24hpmdata/articles/110720060086943.htm) believes the CFTC may consider discontinuing the report. I hadn't read this commentary before and cannot vouch for the author, but he voices interesting concerns about the largest 4 trading firms attempting to control the silver market and their short exposure.

Keeping in mind this administration's lack of transparency on M3 and the money supply, it may be worthwhile to write/email your thoughts to the CFTC as noted in the Fed. Reg. announcement.

Sentimentrader.com

MidMorningOutlook

07/11/06 10:25 AM EST

"Incredibly, despite the move in the Nasdaq 100 to new lows this morning, the VXN implied volatility indicator is still about 20% below its highs from mid-June. That is the most egregious example of the lack of concern we're seeing here. That's also evident from our QQQQ Liquidity Premium, which has been telling us that traders are placing no premium on the liquidity that QQQQ provides over individual stocks."

number2son:

Living off PLASTIC

Sadly some family members, a few years back, ran up their Citi credit card, you know the one, containing ready made checks along with the statement each month to make it ohhhh so easy for you to payoff other bills.

Well then, as 2006 began and new consumer protection laws in place, the $10,000 to $12,000 credit binge required heftier payments per month, my kin folk struggled and brought the balance down into the $6,000 area.

However, as snail mail would have it, they were late on a payment by 1-day, occurring over Memorial Day holiday, but Citi's small print and terms of payment could care less, so a late fee of $39.00 was charged on top of a 22.990% interest fee for the outstanding balance.

The terrible end for many is just beginning out there folks :(

Among the many treasures found on Bill's blog, I've been made aware of Don Coxe's webcasts. Piggybacking on stockman's tech sector posts above, in Coxe's weekly call last Friday he focuses on the outlook for the Nasdaq 100. He's of the opinion that the asset classes which led the decline the past 5 years (i.e. tech), will continue to do the same for the next five years. Similarly, he expects the commodities to continue their outperformance in the period ahead.

Coxe suggests that the chart for the Qs (QQQQ) has little room for error at present, having made a double top at $43 in January and April of this year, and now flirting with taking out its June low of $37.14. He goes on to say that as global liquidity continues to contract, as he expects to be the case, it's hard to imagine the S&P 500 moving higher against a continuing decline in the Qs. He doesn't profess to being a full blown bear, but expects the stock markets to remain "soggy" for perhaps the next six months.

A very informed and interesting listen, as always.

Here's the link:
http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0001/

Anyone catch the Michael Steinhardt interview on Bloomberg ? He seems very bullish on the markets.