« Gold, international equities strong this morning, Thurs., July 27, 2006, 6:15 AM | Main | Smaller cap, higher beta stocks leading equities south, Thur., July 27, 2006, 4:02 PM »

July 27, 2006

Gold and equities sell down after early rally, Thur., July 27, 2006, 2:11 PM

At 6am when I last looked at gold, it was continuing to rally following my yesterday morning blog. Now I see that the price has fallen quickly after hitting a high of $641 after a 30-minute rally that spiked the price higher by $10.

Early today I wrote: "It will be interesting to see if the precious metals can extend the run that started within minutes of my posting the "Buy Silver" article yesterday morning. Spot prices have continued higher through the night and may be getting over-bought."

I did that because I could see the Relative Strength Index technical indicator already over 70 on the short-term charts.

So I opined further: "But as long as the U.S. market rallies today and possibly for a couple more days (until the cycle tops out), I expect precious metals prices to tag along " and even out-perform; But this is a day traders market, so take caution."

As it turned out, the Dow 30 index hit a high of 11,180 within 15 minutes of the open, which moved with gold, and then the Dow 30 fell off as I said it might in the lead paragraph: "the U.S. equity market appears to be toppy again, possibly ready for one final Bear corrective rally before pursuing lower prices."

As I write, the Dow and S&P are now down on the day after having such a strong rally off the open. "But then you knew it would." hahaha

Seriously, these are difficult markets to blog about unless I do it in real-time. I know most of you are looking for my opinion on what might be happening next, but there are limits to blogging. And therein lies a plug for the premium service I will unveil in a couple months.

I'm wrestling with this notion of charging anybody for anything related to what I do on the blog. The answer will lie in an effort on my part to blog for free about trading strategies and also charge clients for extra services that cross the line from general blogger to real-time tactical trading advisor.

The latter effort will require expensive resources, including costly systems, permits, licenses and office staff, and involve taking professional risks, so I intend to do it on a professional basis.

Yesterday morning I had no problem publishing ten informative blog entries, and that could have been twenty in a single day. I intend to set up to do just that every day, as well as the Week In Review, so I do think that the free blog will remain popular.

I am also looking at a number of premium initiatives, like video blogging, e-mail alerts, client portfolio monitoring and advice, a new format for Investertech, with data series from many international markets, and so forth. At the end of the day, I believe there will be considerable additional value in those premium services.

And I am continuing to work on a book for publishing by a major house.

What I have been working on for a couple days now is a business model where some of my faithful readers can be compensated in some way for supporting my business efforts. I don't have the answers on that one yet, but I am thinking it through.

The best part of starting a new venture is the anticipation of success and the joy of executing a plan that can make it happen. The downside of course is the hard work put in to what you find to be blind alleys.

Now, all this might seem a big deal, but really it isn't. I have had a series of successes at this level. The plan wherein I was to build a trader city in Grand Bahama Island was something I had to put on the back burner because of a major upheaval in management and the owner's level at the Grand Bahama Port Authority. Ultimately, I am up to that challenge, which is a big one, but not for the time being.

Bear with me.

In the meantime, I'm trying to learn this webcasting thing and Skype, and technology stuff. This is one case where I wish I was 25 again.

It's a fun thing with the blog; I had to learn from scratch. Then one day, Trader Mike asked when was I going to do links. Aha, what's a link? Then somebody asked for charts, and later pdf report downloads, and then;

I plod along, but things ultimately get done. It's a riot actually.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on July 27, 2006 02:11:24 PM | Category: Blogging World , Cara Today in the Market

Discourse

Bill,

I applaud your continuuing efforts at educating us about the markets. I have one comment regarding video blogs. Perhaps there are those who will find this useful, but for me they usually take so long to listen to. It's always. again for me, so much faster to go through the written version. Perhaps, you could supply both the video and a transcript.

Thanks,

Toby

Posted by: bdtobias [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 27, 2006 3:11 PM [link]

Gee, I always thought "retirees" had too much time on their hands ;)

On another note, I see that the 10 year yield took a spike today. Perhaps it was due to today's calculaton of M3b rising from 9% to about 9.3% annualized.

Posted by: smess [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 27, 2006 4:01 PM [link]

Bill -

I think the dividing line between free blog and premium services may not be so difficult to define: most people don't want to be intensively involved with investing. For them, 1 or more blog entries per day, and a solid week-in-review might be involvement enough. Advice would be more general, and longer-term in nature.

For those who DO wish to be more intensively involved in their investments, there should be a motivation to pay for more intensive service.

Perhaps you could poll readers: asking them what they would be prepared to pay for what specific services.

I've never heard of a start-up business doing this, but then I've never come across a start-up business which already had over a hundred thousand involved and grateful users on day one.

You could introduce services one after another, starting with those which (per admittedly imperfect polling) suggested the largest uptake for the least amount of initial business development investment.

Contributed for what it's worth ... Jock

Posted by: Jock [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 27, 2006 4:06 PM [link]

hey bill,

have you explored your options of generating revenue through advertising or affiliate marketing on the site? there might be some sweet irony in having the corrupt system of brokerages and sell-siders subsidize your dissemination of the information that undermines their stranglehold on markets....

i notice trader mike just switched to wordpress on his site. publishing a podcast or vlog is pretty painless using wordpress. if you have any interest in switching this blog over, i would certainly consider my assistance paid for in advance by the education i have received here.

Posted by: eric [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 27, 2006 4:21 PM [link]

Bill,

I very much agree with Toby's comment above. Making your blog into video transcripts will make them MUCH less useful than a text version.


This is especially true for your kind of blog that typically talks about price levels, specific stocks etc. I for one, often go back and re-read only a small portion of your blog from a few days/hours ago


e.g. Take your SNDK getting to accumulation zone blog entry from a few days back - it would made about a 15-minute video blog item. After a day or two, if one was trying to decide if I wanted to buy SNDK, I'd go back and check exactly what price you said it was a good risk/reward - to find that item again in a video blog would make it so bad I guess I'd typically not try it. Compare that with the few clicks and less than 2 minutes to find exactly that in a text (or with graphics) version of the blog like it is today.


Also, I often download the blog entries and read them when not connected, or save them to my PC for reading/re-reading later - I guess I'd do that much less often with a video blog!!!


I guess Video blogs seem 'cool', and probably good for computer geeks or programmers such as me who'd gain by extra bucks from clients who want them, but for your blogs to be most useful (paid or otherwise), they should very much remain as they are...


Now ofcourse, you may just want to try and imitate some CNBC TV personalities with overly wild visuals, sounds and gimmicks, I guess Video blogs would offer a better format, but I doubt that is where you want your very useful blog to go to - is it?

Thanks,
MSquare

Posted by: mSquare [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 27, 2006 4:22 PM [link]

For what it's worth, Barry Ritholtz recently expanded his blog, "The Big Picture," leaning toward macro economics, into a premium service for active traders. He invited feedback re desires, etc. prior to the launch and gave blog readers previews of his new premium site as it was evolving. I would imagine he would be willing to share his experience with a fellow (even if competitive)top-profile blogger.

Posted by: jcf [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 27, 2006 5:13 PM [link]

Bill,

I second (and third) Toby's and MSquare's view on video blogs. Too tedious.....unless you have figured out an ingenious way to search the video archives.

One weekly Webcast I really value is Don Coxe's (BMO Harris Private Banking). However, it's almost an hour long. Eventually, I get to listen to it, most weeks.....however, it's not as convenient as your blog which I read daily religiously.

Just my 2cs.

Posted by: jragusa [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 27, 2006 7:23 PM [link]