Intel's hometown paper has an article about Core2 on the front page of today's business section.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2006/07/28/BUGRBK6M441.DTL&type=business

No question - Intel is a wonderful company. A great company even. The relevant question however is - is AMD a greater company? Has been for the last year or so. Lets see what happens now.

Bluzer

this is an interesting idea. i kicked INTC off my monitor a long time ago because everybody was telling me what a great blue chipper it was and yet the stock price essentially was doing nothing.

now, however, you may be onto something.

i don't and won't pretend to forecast or project anthing that sounds like fundamental analysis. when someone hits me with a stock idea, i punch up the charts and if it doesn't look right, i don't care if Yawheh has just agreed to be the c.e.o. i won't touch it.

since to me, stocks are like dogs - they travel in packs - if i'm interested in INTC, i look at the group.

i just went through a bunch of long term monthly semiconductor charts and a lot of them look like they are showing a multi-year consolidation. is this group successfully basing out after the tech bubble turned holocaust from a few years ago? it looks like they are.

maybe there is one more bout of weakness somewhere in the next few months. maybe the group bases out for years and years but this is the kind of group a value investor should check out.

the nice thing about the semi's is that they are a group that can show some explosive earnings when the economy cycles their way. for now, they look like the type of stocks that a value investor would accumulate near lows.

kind of like what a lot of people were doing in the late 90's with gold stocks.

Bill,

I also think it is worth noting that INTC is one of the few remaining semiconductor companies not implicated in options backdating scandals. That speaks to management's integrity imo.

On sentiment (I am pulling this information from charts if anyone has the exact data I'd appreciate seeing it posted)

Rydex Electronics assets

11/2003 125m+/-

7/2006 22m+/-

Energy assets

11/2003 30m+/-

7/2006 155m+/-

Energy Services

11/2003 20m+/-

7/2006 241m+/-

Semi's on track to go to zero... oil going to 1 gazzilion per barrel?

Friday rally:

SOX +3%

XOI +0.3%
OSX -0.6%

How did traders respond in asset allocation?

Rydex Energy and Energy Svcs took in 6.8m
Rydex Tech and Electronics took in 2.4m

Traders do not appear to be embracing the rally in technology OR the vulnerability in energy.

I attended a small gathering last week where I was introduced by a branch manager who had been in attendance at an equity meeting I conducted two years earlier. In introducing me he pointed out that I had been 'pounding the table' on energy stocks in 2004. To his surprise I then pointed out the cyclical risk in the commodity cycle RIGHT NOW. Fundamentally the concerns could be looked through due to the secular bull for the group. However, the fact that so much hot money is now in energy suggest caution and a sell discipline needs to be applied. While those who spoke up were all overweight energy they saw little reason to be concerned. My cautious comments were unwelcome.

This is anecdotal but combined with:

*ads for energy drilling on my radio

*Cramer promoting energy

*universal agreement in Radigan group to buy energy

*even bears on market are bulls on energy

*the street suggesting energy is the safest of the commodity group

*more commodity based ETFs and structured products

*Rydex data confirmation

*BillCara blog comments- readers tend to be interested and post comments on articles relating to gold, energy and inflation.

all suggest to me that anyone long this group (for a trade) should have an exit strategy or sell discipline in place NOW, before any real damage is done and emotions kick in.

JMHO

overweight technology and precious metals, underweight energy

Could very well be, stockman.

I posted last week that the financials and energy were holding the SP500 up. If not for those two groups, the carnage would have been significant.

I really thought Friday's data would be a nail-driver for financials. I thought they would lead the next wave down. Perhaps I am being silly. The Boys leading The Bear to the promised land? Instead the 10 year got a bid and came in under 5 and the BKX broke out. Too much power in GS and LEH etc to have my scenario play out just yet?

Perhaps it will be energy. The consolidation below 75 resistance was a bearish sign and the first move has been down. ME tensions break and it could rapidly go through 70.

AMD catching a bid as a result of form 4 filing?