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June 12, 2006

With an eye for Russian beauty, Mon. 6/12/2006 7:50 PM

Do you want the name of a "would-be" Cara 100 stock that is trading at a PE of 8 and has fallen in price "37.8 pct in the past month?

How about Norilsk? NILSY was once in the Cara 100, but I had to remove it only because readers can't easily get financial info since it trades in the U.S. OTC market and not on NASDAQ, AMEX or NYSE.

So I removed NILSY, but you know what I think of the Company. It's a good one.

If you search the archives, you will see I mention this former monster of the Soviet Gulag, the City of Bones. And you will see that I call it "From Russia With Love".


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On May 10, NILSY hit a high of $162.60. You remember May 10, don't you? It had zip to do with President Putin or the Russian Parliament.

That was the day of the last FOMC meeting, and the real action occurred an hour after the decision came out. I gave you a bit of a play by play at the time. I told you big things were happening, and that the enormous push and pull of the bull-bear fight was front and center. Then I told you there was a break to the downside.

Interesting how these things work out, huh? That moment was the start of the 2006 Bear.

As for the bigger picture, I told you I saw it happening later in the week, didn't I? That was the Week In Review #19 when I said that you were going to be frightened by the coming events.

I can be accused of a few things, but not understanding the capital markets is not one of them. That dog don't hunt.

Today Norisk closed at $101.10 in OTC trading in the U.S. It's off -38 pct from its high a month ago.

Norilsk is the world's largest nickel producer in the world. Because of its northern latitude, for months at a time the city sits in darkness. But trust me the lights never go out. The mine keeps operating. The world needs nickel " even in recession.

The PE is down to 8. It might fall to 7 or possibly 6. But this one is a keeper. It's just a matter of timing a long-term bottom in base metals (which will coincide with the bottom of the Russia equity market bear cycle), which will happen within 2 to 4 months. So keep your powder dry and NILSY in your sights.

Locked and loaded. I'll give the signal.

Now I have to go paint a bedroom before the new furniture arrives tomorrow. My wife just gave me the signal. :-)

And she's a beauty too " not Russian, but Polish, both sides born in Poland. Her Dad passed away last summer a couple weeks after mine. He was 100. As a teenager, he lived on the Poland-Russia border, and was drafted into the Russian cavalry. I have some stunning photos.

But life moves on. Out with the old; in with the new; In the past two years our family has had a flock of new ones. All just as beautiful as the old ones.

And even though you might not be thinking so today with the events of the markets, these children will all have an easier life than our parents and their parents.

My parents and theirs had to brush that paint on. I'm going to roll it. The next generation will spray it.

Some of their parents have even got pretty good at practising their art on the outside walls of buildings, bridges and transit cars; it's called graffiti. Maybe that's just their way of debasing the physical world. Do you think?


ALERT: If you are having trouble accessing the charts at Investertech.com, try www.easystock.com. I don't know what happened to the usual access.


Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 12, 2006 07:50:17 PM | Category: 15 Materials , Russia

Discourse

î love reading your blog, Bill! Even if you are the bearish victor at the moment, but we, the eternal bulls, will come back :)

Posted by: Jansing [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2006 10:12 AM [link]

I stumbled across NILSY when trying to find exposure to palladium without the pit vipers of the futures market. Rode it from 85 to 160, but couldn't get intra-day pricing and was overseas, so only got out at 120. Is there ANY way to get pricing during the day? When it revives, I want to hop back on early ... Can you call somebody at OTCBB? Schwab didn't know how to ...

Posted by: Jock [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2006 11:26 AM [link]

Down another 10 today.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NILSY.PK

One to keep an eye on, but agree with Jock, it's difficult to obtain pricing. No position.

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 13, 2006 7:36 PM [link]