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June 2, 2006
U.S. Jobs data is cool, Fri., June 2, 2006, 8:35 AM
A month ago, the Non-farm payrolls (est.) grew just 138,000 (adjusted downward today), which was the smallest M/M gain in several months. Traders are concerned that the low unemployment rate signifies a tight labor market and possibly a forerunner of wage inflation, which would cause the Fed to continue to tighten.
Here, along with the Wall Street forecasts, are the results that were released at 8:30am:
May 06 Non-farm Payrolls Forecast (Range: 150,000 to 250,000) Consensus: 180,000
Actual: +75,000
May 06 Unemployment Rate Forecast (Range: 4.6 to 4.8 pct) Consensus: 4.7 pct
Actual: +4.6 pct
May 06 Average Hourly Earnings Forecast (Range: 0.0 to +0.4 pct) Consensus: +0.3 pct
Actual: +0.1 pct
Not only is this a spectacular report for a rally in equities and bonds, it's a clear sign that the Fed will pause this month. Ergo, just as I indicated in an earlier blog, the precious metals will boom from today through to the FOMC meeting June 29 " after which they will zoom even more if the Fed actually does pause.
We all take these estimates with a grain of salt. Economic statistics are the playground of professors and politicians. Traders zero in not on the data as much as how people interpret it.
Is the data accurate? You decide. Here is a lead paragraph of today's report. Remember this is the Labor Dept speaking, which is the Administration. Today the White House will be crowing, but leaders of the Black and Hispanic communities will be shaking their heads in disbelief. They know the reality.
"In May, the jobless rates for the major worker groups--adult men (4.2 per-cent), adult women (4.1 percent), teenagers (14.0 percent), whites (4.1 per-cent), blacks (8.9 percent), and Hispanics (5.0 percent)--showed little or no change over the month."
As I see it, this report is an insult to society. We need reports that we can trust.
In closing, however, I'll ask the serious question I put in the earlier article headline: "Are we headed for recession?"
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 2, 2006 08:35:43 AM | Category: Economics
Discourse
Lies, damn lies and unemployment rates. Yes indeed unemployment and under-employment is much greater in the USA than the household survey indicates.
In the May 27 issue of the Economist there is an article entitled: "Canada's immigration debate: Help wanted: Please come and help us grow rich."
So as Guatamalans immigrate to Mexico and Mexicans to the US, perhaps it's time Americans look north for blue-collar jobs.
Posted by: TempusFugit
at
June 2, 2006 9:48 AM [link]

Yes, this report is an insult to all intelligent Americans schooled in economics. Recently I've heard estimates that if unemployment were measured now the same way it was back in the 1930's, the unemployment rate would be at least 12%. Two examples of bias in the unemployment calculation -- persons no longer seeking work are not counted; military personnel are now included.
Bush's tax cuts have placed the fiscal situation so out of control that "economists" on CNBC and other media don't even mention the fiscal side any more. Instead they assign credit or blame to Mr. Bernanke as if quarter point changes in interest rates really have a long term effect on inflation.
Posted by: MurryMom
at
June 2, 2006 9:32 AM [link]