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June 14, 2006

U.S. CPI data is a concern, 6/14/2006 9:24 AM

The CPI data looks at first sight to indicate that consumer inflation is trending higher " not alarmingly so, but certainly enough to permit the Fed to raise the rate again on the 29th.

So I think there will be some backing and filling in the currency, metal and gold markets through until at least the FOMC announcement at the end of the month.

In the interim, the broker-dealers will continue to press the margin accounts that are close or under the margin requirements, which will bring in more selling in the goldminers and of undermargined hedge fund long positions in the metals futures.

The Fed may, one more time, step down hard on inflation and market speculation. Following that I would be ready to enter the market " for stocks and goldminers.

On any further extreme selling in the meantime, I would nibble at mid and junior golds and silvers like: Yamana, Lakeshore, Glencairn, Queenstake, Silvercorp, Ivanhoe Mining and Silver Wheaton.

For more conservative accounts, I believe Barrick Gold and Newmont (both Cara 100) will also start to trade higher too.

Gold is selling down here as I expected when the CPI data did not turn out to be benign. As reported the numbers will give ample opportunity to the Fed spokespersons to say they remain hawkish.


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So expect to see some further selling in the golds and silvers today. Watch to see if the buyers have a stronger appetite than they have for the past couple weeks.

UPDATE: The very minute I uploaded, gold traders moved the price higher to $567.30 (spot). This might be a trap. Be cautious.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 14, 2006 09:24:21 AM | Category: Economics , Goldminer Producers

Discourse

I agree. When the market is mild on a day like today, its often a trap. I'm waiting to see the close to see if this is the case today.

Posted by: CalexKitty [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 14, 2006 1:50 PM [link]