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June 6, 2006

Subject to regulatory approval?, Tues., June 6, 2006, 8:26 AM

There is only one ‘Gold'man I listen to these days, and it happens to be Rob McEwen of U.S. Gold (USGL.OB), the Torontonian ex-broker who spent a career building Goldcorp into a successful giant, and then departing for greener pastures (the Nevada gold fields actually).

There is something special about Rob. He is honest, straight-forward and relentless in his pursuit of adding economic value through prospecting for gold, and prudent management of operations and finance when his company finds it.

As gold is discovered in conjunction with other metals like silver or copper usually, it is fair to say that if McEwen's former company, Goldcorp (TSX: G and NYSE: GG), sold the non-gold content of its ore production, the cash cost to produce the gold would be a negative figure.

Talk about printing money, that's what Goldcorp can do. But Goldcorp has taken on some debt in the acquisition of its Placer Dome properties from Barrick, so I'd rather follow the man who made the gold at Goldcorp, rather than the gold itself.

That's where the upside is.

It's the age old question: do you back the developer or the prospector? I say you favour the developer who can produce gold at a cash cost that is much less than market price, if there is no debt on the balance sheet, an in-ground mineral resource of more than say ten years, and a balanced demand-supply market.

But if there is demand that outstrips supply, where the commodity price has been held in check by vested interests that have reason to support a strong $USD, which is to say that a free market price would rise, then, it pays to back the legitimate prospector " the one who is honest, expert, and who commits all shareholder funds to the work programs and not to fancy cars and condos.

And that happens to be Rob McEwen.

But Rob has run into a problem with regulators who cannot accept the skimpy and deficient files U.S. Gold submitted as related to their March 6 unsolicited bid to acquire four junior property holding companies. That's not Rob's fault, but the issue outcome is, as they say, undecided.

This takes us back to how traders ought to be speculating on precious metals prospectors and junior producers. I have always said you bet the jockey. The world's best jockey always seems to find the world's best horses.

There are many great horses in the world that are a disaster in the hands of a bad jockey, dubious owner and trainer, etc. In Rob McEwen's case, he is wealthy owner, world-class trainer AND leading jockey, all wrapped into one.

Will Rob overcome the "issues" at his U.S. Goldcorp? I haven't spoken to him since March 6 when just before he was to give a major speech at PDAC, I let him know that his opponents (the Administration and the Fed) had hammered down the gold price in the preceding hour. He was quite surprised, but undeterred.

As our research showed a month or two ago (while discussing country risk), the Nevada jurisdiction is the world's best for prospectors and developers of gold. So the regulatory problems can be overcome. It is the other issues, like formal valuations and clean audit reports that concern me.

It could be that the junior companies that U.S. Gold was to acquire have now decided to go it alone. If so, they will soon learn a life's lesson. They will learn that the owner and trainer and horse are all secondary factors in a decision by speculators to choose where to put their risk capital. The major factor is the jockey.

So if push comes to shove in the U.S. Gold acquisition of these small land holdings, you will be reading a list of short sales in this blog, and I can assure everybody today that it will not be U.S. Gold.

See Reuters article.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 6, 2006 08:26:20 AM | Category: Gold Explorers

Discourse

I found it interesting to note while reading over the White Knight Resources director's circular regarding the takeover offer, that McEwen owns 17% of WKR by virtue of a number of share purchases made over the past year. Maybe he'll just buy the rest of it. :)

Posted by: doug11 [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 6, 2006 8:51 AM [link]