Bill-

I am with you on this. I think after last night's move down to 542 in Hong Kong, there are going to be some people wanting to get out. That level needs retesting now and I would bet it comes in NY. So this one doesn't feel right to me either. We'll see.

Long: GLD

Today, so far, what is happening in the gold, currency markets, and in US bonds is what I expected to happen with the unwinding of the carry trade. But what about the last month?

Helen Meisler (RealMOney)

"Back on June 1, I wrote about the head-and-shoulders top in the CRB Index. Until Tuesday that was just a potential top. Yesterday it became a reality.

The break of the neckline occurred on a gap, which all the textbooks say is even more bearish. As a reminder, the target price from that head-and-shoulders top is around 340.

In that column, I picked on silver and its head-and-shoulders top as well. It too has now broken through its neckline on a gap. It measures to 9, so it's getting quite close to its first target.

But what I got awfully wrong was gold. I thought gold would hold around 620-30 and I was clearly wrong. It too collapsed and when it did, it broke a decent uptrend line.

While gold is clearly coming into a lot of support here, breaking that uptrend line was decidedly bearish. It now leaves resistance back at 600.

Crude oil has still not broken the triangle it was in two weeks ago when I first wrote about these commodities. You can see from the chart a break of $67.50 would not only break the uptrend line or lower boundary of the triangle, but would also break the previous low.

I suspect the good news in all of this is that the commodities are coming into support, or in silver's case, nearing its target zone, so perhaps we can expect a respite from the selling. It would be interesting if the respite from the selling in these commodities coordinated with the upcoming stock market oversold readings next week."

That may be a little out of date already, depending on when she wrote it. FIRST resistance is in 575 area after yesterday. Has to move past that to get to 600 resistance level. A lot of sellers up above.

Folks, on the move to 571 this morning I took 45% of my longs in GLD off the table. I am that concerned about this chart.

MarkM, I think you're missing the big picture. One look at the weeklies on GLD tells me this move is exhausted, kaput, and it's only Tuesday.

For starters, where's the volume?

Have we taken out the March lows yet?

Etc. & etc.

ooomph-

I still have a position. I just pared exposure. A break of intermediate term trendlines is not something to be ignored.

I don't try to pick bottoms anymore, although my purchases on this slide would belie that notion.

If YOU bought the bottom, that's great for you. I will wait on adding to existing GLD positions when I am more certain the selling has stopped. If you are certain by your system, then by all means make your entries.

See my earlier posts of this a.m. If you see something that I am "missing" and want to point it out, feel free.