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June 20, 2006

Stagflation worries are growing, Tues., 6/20/2006 8:27 AM

All around the world today there is a problem: inflation data in Canada, Germany and Sweden today (June 20), is looking ugly. In a couple minutes (8:30am), the U.S. new housing data will be out. If the numbers are bad, the talk this morning will be of Stagflation.

Nothing kills capital market prices like stagflation.

Choose your poison. I am afraid that central bankers must take action now, which will be to pull liquidity from the markets.

My crystal ball is telling me that the equity bear market decline will now pick up steam. That's good because I have been well positioned for it. I have been watching prices come to me.

I don't know where the present inflation situation leaves precious metals, but I don't have a good feeling right now because I am long. I fear that the central bank hawks will be running wild. I therefore think the precious metal miners are likely to pull back further. Ouch!

I will have to watch the eggs in this basket very closely. As you know, the best of the precious metals companies are making good profits at $570 gold, and they will make it at $500 gold. But as the margins narrow, share prices will drop. This will be a good time to select the best quality miners for the rally later in the summer that I expect to occur.

As to my mail this morning, I am a bit overwhelmed. I just spent three hours reading (and not writing). But I am so thankful that people from all over the world have contacted me regarding material in the blog they think would be good for a book.

Thank you.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 20, 2006 08:27:07 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market

Discourse

Good Morning, Bill

Well, the housing new starts number came in better than expected - 1957 versus expectations of about 1870. Building permits, meanwhile were lower - 1932 versus expectations of 1950.

Posted by: number2son [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 20, 2006 8:41 AM [link]