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June 1, 2006
Shock and awe in Bombay Sensex, Thurs., June 1, 2006, 6:27 AM
In two and a half sessions this week, the hugely speculative Bombay 30 Sensex index shows that equities have fallen -9.1 pct, which happens to be a drop of 1,000 points from 11,000.
What is happening in India is that speculators are discovering that there is a difference between a corporation and its share price. And that's a healthy process because it means that the traders there are learning.
What is also happening is that there is a massive unwinding of the foreign carry trade, which was caused by hedge funds borrowing cheap Yen and investing abroad wherever economic returns could be assured. There was nothing essentially wrong with the strategy except that as the trading is very highly leveraged, there becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy kind of effect. In other words, they zoom " on the way up.
And when the source of those funds are cut off, and unrealized profits are taken by the fund managers, prices start to reverse, and they zoom on the way down as well.
Unfortunately, as newbie traders are now learning, prices come down faster than they go up.
Speculative traders are often nobody's fool, so they rush to the exits ahead of the slow-moving herd, hoping to beat a stampede. In India, the word "stampede" does apply, as the Sensex index has plunged -21 pct (almost 2600 points) in 15 trading sessions.
It's hard to write about fundamental or quantitative measures or economics at a time like this because fear and panic in markets is a psychological phenomenon.

Bombay Sensex Index Historical Prices for May 2006
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 1, 2006 06:28:15 AM | Category: India
Discourse
To make sure there isn't any misunderstanding, I meant fooled by the charts and my analysis :).
Posted by: FirstConsul
at
June 1, 2006 8:28 AM [link]
From the recent peak of Sesex at 12612 on May 10th, Sesex fell to 10,071 as of June 1, 2006 - a fall of about 20%!
As per Nomura, 'fair value' of the Sensex is about 7000. Almost 30% further down from where it is now! See
http://news.moneycontrol.com/india/newsarticle/stocksnews.php?autono=21764
.IMHO, there is further down to go. To about 8000-8500 on the sensex - essentially where it was in Oct 2005 when Foreign investors were net sellers of Indian equities.
Posted by: mSquare
at
June 1, 2006 9:25 AM [link]
Hi Bill,
The recent sell-off seems to have been triggered-off due massive unwinding by foreign institutional investors (as much as 1.7 billion dollars). But, interestingly, domestic mutual funds turned out to be buyers of pretty much the same quantity. See the link to get the exact numbers and a chart depicting institutional activity thru the month.
http://graham-2-livermore.blogspot.com/2006/06/fii-investments-vs-mf-investments-and.html
I wonder who the big sellers were, if not the institutions?
--
Ravi Purohit.
Posted by: Ravi Purohit
at
June 2, 2006 11:23 AM [link]


Spot gold 627.50. The correction will continue, I was fooled into believing it had reversed :(. Ouch!
Posted by: FirstConsul
at
June 1, 2006 8:27 AM [link]