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June 1, 2006
Pondering Apple for the Cara 100, Thurs., June 1, 2006, 11:59 AM
I have always respected the vision and the product quality coming from Apple (NDQ: AAPL), but the financial performance was not good enough to get me interested in the stock.
Then three years ago, along came new stuff like iPod that boomed revenues, profit margins, and profits. The Return on Equity, Return on Assets, etc, are now in my radar. In fact look at the average over 5 years vs over the past 1, 2 and 3 years. The recent performance is quite impressive.
Before I give you Wall Street research (I call it good stuff because it's well laid out, informative, etc, not because I agree with all of it) specific to AAPL (see Credit Suisse repot linked below), let me say that I think AAPL is at an obvious support point here (from a comparative dip in late March).
But the overall market mood has shifted to negative since March. When it blows up, as I suspect it will, I think AAPL has another step down, and the next could be too much for me to handle. I'm not looking to be an investor with capital locked into losing trades.
I am only ready to start accumulating positions when it hits my Accumulation Zone. In a month or so, I'll have a living graphic (for the Cara 100) as well as an explanation of the Accumulation and Distribution Zones.
GICS 45 Apple Computer (AAPL) (AAPL) Financial Data Credit Suisse May
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 1, 2006 11:59:02 AM | Category: 45 Info Technology , Cara Global 100 Best Companies
Discourse
As you know, SanDisk is a Cara 100 component. I like everything about the company. Presently they are dealing with sales and inventory and pricing power issues. This is a downer.
I'm looking for mid-to-low 40's on SNDK, and I'm prepared to wait until traders give it to me.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
June 1, 2006 1:02 PM [link]
Apple?
Bought some yesterday on the double bottom around 59. Great products with some potential of stealing business from wintel now that you can get the windows operating system loaded as well.
The stock is not cheap but it moves around. I figure it trades about 42 annual volatility so this is about 2.6% per day. Some resistance at yesterdays open around 61.80 if pops through might run to 63.40. The risk/reward over the short term seems favorable.
Posted by: kc
at
June 1, 2006 1:52 PM [link]
Welcome to the Apple circle of friends. I write about Apple all day long, but Bill is correct. The stock is likely to have a drop but the company is going gangbusters.
Bill - treat yourself to the new macBook with the built in camera - hours of fun buddy.
Posted by: howardl
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June 1, 2006 8:00 PM [link]
I had some AAPL from 58.70, sold 2/3 of it at 72.00 when it failed to hold above resistance. I sold the rest of it early this week as it dropped below rising support for a few more points.
AAPL is late to the wireless handheld market. That's a huge mistake. What good are computers unless they are connected? Same goes for those dumb little players made by AAPL, SNDK, and SONY. If its not connected, it will soon be gobbled up by gadgets that are connected (and wirelessly so).
In a few short years, you'll be able to carry the Library of Congress around with you on a chip the size of a Chiclet. There will be one device and everyone will have one. What are are we all going to do? Carry a camera, a phone, an iPod, and our wallet and sunglasses all at the same time? Of course not. We are going to cram as much stuff as we can into one lightweight device because its necessary to do so.
I don't even know what to call the thing, but it already has phone, video game, television, radio, music, video, gps, internet, email, identity, and camera capabitlities. Next thing you know, Taser's going to stick a stun gun in that thing once referred to as a phone.
Besides, Jobs already has one foot out of the AAPL door, holding the DIS door open. He's adopted and Disney is a tradition. I think the AAPL play is actually a DIS play and the iPod is just about played out.
Posted by: CalexKitty
at
June 2, 2006 1:38 AM [link]
I read through the AAPL report and I think the analysts are unreasonably optimistic.
The last paragraph of the report concedes, however:
"Finally, global handset vendors have begun to launch “Smartphones� with sophisticated
multimedia capabilities, high storage capacities, and high processing power. According
to Gartner, in 2005 there were over 100 million handsets that can play MP3 files,
including approximately 3-5 million handsets that compete directly with digital audio
players ..."
Posted by: CalexKitty
at
June 2, 2006 2:37 AM [link]

Slightly unrelated, but I suppose this question would apply to AAPL in the near future:
I'm wondering how things are shaping up in the NAND and DRAM world. Although Micron (MU) has been fairing alright, SanDisk (SNDK) has been getting hammered, and their daily RSI 7 is well below 30 (18.28 according to StockCharts), and their daily RSI 14 is sitting at 32. On the weekly data, RSI 7 is at 34, RSI 14 is at 46.
Once again, on the daily data, SNDK is now below 50 day and 200 day SMA and other indicators show weakness as well. When can we say that it has had a significant enough pull-back to start chipping away? Are we looking for daily and weekly RSI 7/14 to go below 30 before doing so?
We're still waiting for the broader market pull-back, so does SNDK have much further to fall?
Posted by: Fazeli
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June 1, 2006 12:38 PM [link]