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June 16, 2006

Insurance stocks in a flat yield curve? Fri., 6/16/2006 6:36 PM

Tonight on the Kudlow show, frequent guest (CNBC and Bloomberg) John Augustine, Chief Investment Strategist for Fifth Third Asset Management, told us that you want to buy insurance stocks after the yield curve goes flat. I decided to check it out.

He gave us four examples. Prudential Financial (NYSE: PRU) and GenWorth Financial (NYSE: GNW) came out in 1Q02 and 2Q04, respectively, so I looked at his MetLife (NYSE: MET) and Hartford Financial (NYSE: HIG) examples.

You see, I knew there was a flat yield curve through the July-October 2000 period, similar to what we have today. And I knew there was a bear market that followed. So I wanted to see if John Augustine was giving me good advice or just more of the Wall Street Talking Head yada yada.

I'm a student of the market willing to learn new tricks, right?

What did I find? The chart for this period is below: HIG in black and MET (as a comparative) in blue.

I found that the subsequent two years were real bad ones for the shareholders of these two stocks.

So other than crapola, I don't know what Augustine was trying to feed us. But I do know that he proudly presented his firm's banner in an irksome tumbling logo on a huge monitor behind him. So I guess it's fair to take a shot at them too for putting this clown on the stage.



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If you want to try to correlate the Living Yield Curve to prices in the capital markets (bonds and stocks), I recommend you go to the SmartMoney.com web site, and get familiar with the tool they provide.

End result of today's study: John Augustine fails to make the cut for the Cara Trading Strategist's Hall of Fame. Banc of America's Tom McManus and BMO Harris Don Coxe have zip to worry about Mr. Augustine.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 16, 2006 06:36:55 PM | Category: 40 Financials

Discourse

He must have meant to buy them TWO YEARS AFTER the curve goes flat...

Posted by: DaveB [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 17, 2006 6:35 AM [link]

I'm so sorry that Don Coxe's program will no longer be available for free.

Posted by: Leisa [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 7, 2006 5:39 PM [link]