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June 22, 2006

Global imbalances, with the rich getting richer, Thurs., June 22, 2006, 2:20 PM

Ajay Kapur of Citigroup Global Markets has addressed a crisis and opportunity wrapped into one. It's why I blog.

Kapur has tagged the concept of the global split between the rich and the rest as "Plutonomy". The rich are buying luxury goods and services, and the stocks of these companies are available to the rest of us. In fact, Kapur gives us a list of 24.

He published his report on the Plutonomy Machine on Oct-16, 2005, and followed up March 5, 2006. His thesis is that the rich will continue getting richer.

Download Plutonomy 1

Download Plutonomy 2


He writes:

"The World is dividing into two blocs - the Plutonomy and the rest. The U.S.,UK, and Canada are the key Plutonomies - economies powered by the wealthy. Continental Europe (ex-Italy) and Japan are in the egalitarian bloc."

"The top 1% of households in the U.S., (about 1 million households) accounted for about 20% of overall U.S. income in 2000, slightly smaller than the share of income of the bottom 60% of households put together. That's about 1 million households compared with 60 million households, both with similar slices of the income pie! Clearly, the analysis of the top 1% of U.S. households is paramount. The usual analysis of the "average" U.S. consumer is flawed from the start. To continue with the U.S., the top 1% of households also account for 33% of net worth, greater than the bottom 90% of households put together. It gets better (or worse, depending on your political stripe) - the top 1% of households account for 40% of financial net worth, more than the bottom 95% of households put together."

"Since consumption accounts for 65 pct of the world economy, and consumer staples and discretionary sectors for 19.8 pct of the MSCI AC World Index, understanding how the plutonomy impacts consumption is key for equity market participants."

"There is no "average consumer" in a Plutonomy. Consensus analyses focusing on the "average" consumer are flawed from the start. The Plutonomy Stock Basket outperformed MSCI AC World by 6.8% per year since 1985. Does even better if equities beat housing. Select names: Julius Baer, Bulgari, Richemont, Kuoni, and Toll Brothers."

"The drivers of plutonomy in the U.S. (the UK and Canada) are likely to strengthen, entrenching and buttressing plutonomy where it exists. The six drivers of the current plutonomy: 1) an ongoing technology/biotechnology revolution, 2) capitalist-friendly
governments and tax regimes, 3) globalization that re-arranges global supply chains with mobile well-capitalized elites and immigrants, 4) greater financial complexity and innovation, 5) the rule of law, and 6) patent protection are all well ensconced in the U.S., the UK, and Canada.

They are also gaining strength in the emerging world. Eastern Europe is embracing many of these attributes, as are China, India, and Russia. Even Continental Europe may succumb and be seduced by these drivers of plutonomy."

"Equity risk premium embedded in "global imbalances" are unwarranted. In plutonomies the rich absorb a disproportionate chunk of the economy and have a massive impact on reported aggregate numbers like savings rates, current account deficits, consumption levels, etc. This imbalance in inequality expresses itself in the standard scary "global imbalances". We worry less."



This is an impressive piece of work, but I take issue with a few points. For one, demand from the rich is not elastic. In fact, a lot of the demand " corporate jets, yachts, third and fourth homes and the like " comes mostly from corporations owned by the People's capital but managed by the "rich". The demand exists as long as the Little People permit it.

And in many notable cases this year and last, the People have stood together to put a stop to it. Authorities like Eliot Spitzer have stepped in to charge these people with theft. Not just in the U.S., but abroad in countries like Korea and Japan.

Once while taking public transit I met a man who I knew was a senior executive for the some of the Gnomes in Canada. I inquired why, which perhaps impolite, but I knew the man fairly well. He retorted: "I'm damned not prepared to pay the unconscionable parking rates". I was actually surprised he did not have a limo and driver.

Lord Thomson, one of the world's wealthiest persons and certainly a Gnome, who sadly passed away quite recently " working at his desk - often took the same public transit system on his way from home to office.

I can only wonder what Citigroup's Kapur would have thought if Lord Thomson had died on the downtown subway train he often took to the office.

Apart from the lack of common sense in many cases, deflation is another risk of the rich. But should deflation grow into depression, then it is the rich who are able to first borrow from banks and others to buy up assets for pennies on the dollar.

Taxation seems not to be much of a risk to the rich these days because of all the loopholes in legislation planted by their lobbyists and money-grubbing legislators. Besides they can plan to move their assets into offshore trusts like Canada's most recent ex-Prime Minister Paul Martin, whose assets are protected in a Barbados from almost all taxation.

And the bankers to the rich are the names " hundreds of them " in the offshore tax havens, where presumably the Little People are not a similar welcome sight of the authorities in the high tax jurisdictions. Oh, that will change; trust me.

But the Citigroup/Kapur report is a good one. The concepts are well thought out. The portfolio list of 24 companies/stocks and the write-up is worthy of your consideration.

Yes, the rich are getting richer. And if the income is earned by legitimate means, I have no trouble with that. My beef, as you know, is not with wealth creation or capital ownership, but with securities laws, rules and regulations masquerading as protectors of the Little People.

That is such a crock, it is downright laughable.

Rather than delve into the Kapur Plutonomy 24, most of which are listed in Europe or Asia, I listed the six major ones that are listed on the major U.S. (and Canadian) exchanges. When you are feeling low and a little window shopping can perk you up, you might look at this list " buy-sell-and-profit even. :-)

Interactive charts:
COH, FS, RL, BID, TIF, TOL


GICS 25 Coach, Inc (COH) (COH) Financial Data
GICS 25 Four Seasons Hotels (FS) (FS) Financial Data
GICS 25 Polo Ralph Laren (RL) (RL) Financial Data
GICS 25 Sothebys (BID) (BID) Financial Data
GICS 25 Tiffanys (TIF) (TIF) Financial Data
GICS 25 Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) (TOL) Financial Data


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Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 22, 2006 02:20:22 PM | Category: 25 Cons Discretionary

Discourse

Interesting that 15 of the 24 companies mentioned in this report are in the clothing/retailing sector.

Posted by: Todd [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 22, 2006 3:18 PM [link]

Re:"Interesting that 15 of the 24 companies mentioned in this report are in the clothing/retailing sector."

That's because these so-called "rich"(having great worth or value-Not) are a self-absorbed lot.

Posted by: oratier [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 22, 2006 3:30 PM [link]

Sounds like the '30s. That was a golden age of luxury cars, trans Atlantic flights by Zeppellin - All great stuff of you were rich.

FDR's confiscation of gold and revaluation from $20.67 to $35 was a tax on the plutochracy. They were the ones who held gold and bonds. FDR's actions were a one two punch at wealth not being used productively to build the economy.

Posted by: Fred [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 22, 2006 4:28 PM [link]

Fred,

Yours is an excellent example of one of FDRs New Deal motivations. I'm an old New Dealer who came of age during the Depression and it's impossible explaining to today's Gen X'ers and Baby Boomers the challenges the country (and the World) had to overcome as a result of the extraordinary self-obsorption by the so-called "rich" up to, during. and after the Great Depression. I still thank the Higher Being for the 12 productive years the FDR Administration was in power and his sometimes frustrating attempt to rein them in.

History is always prologue. We may need someone of his caliber again.

BTW, being rich is not about having money. Accumlating wealth in America is one of the easier accomplishment one can endeavor to undertake. The lasting question is: What then? What do you do with it?

Posted by: oratier [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 22, 2006 4:58 PM [link]

FDR was a stinking commie and the awful economic policies of his administration actually prolonged the depression. Along with the compliant commies in Congress, it became illegal to own gold and demand payment in gold.

He is also a President who contributed much to the destruction of our Constitutional liberties (starting with the confiscation of gold) and things have only become worse since then. I don't see how anyone respects a guy who endorses the stealing of private property through the government.

I am reading this book by Benjamin Anderson:
Economics and the Public Welfare: A Financial and Economic History of the United States, 1914-1946

It lays out well the destructiveness of government intervention of the economy during the Great Depression.

What this country needs is free market libertarian that believes in the gold standard and private property along with elimination of the federal and state bureaucracies that impoverish everyone.

I'm too poor to afford another communist like FDR.


Posted by: don_m [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 22, 2006 11:05 PM [link]

Re:
What this country needs is free market libertarian that believes in the gold standard and private property along with elimination of the federal and state bureaucracies that impoverish everyone.

Sir,
What you are advocating is anarchy!
And when in doubt, blame the commies, that old worn out discredited socio-economic policy.
There isn't enough gold in this world for any sane "state bureaucracies" to ever entertain the thought of going back to that also discredited standard.

Posted by: oratier [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 23, 2006 6:59 AM [link]

So how did the country get by all through the 19th century without all of this government?

You really need to pick up some real history and economic texts and educate yourself.

Socialism and its variants have much empirical evidence against it providing any alleged service or benefeit. Look at the public school system in this country or socialized medicine in most other countries.

A statist would be against the gold standard since there is simply not enough money to loot from the populace to support 12 aircraft carrier groups, fleets of nuke missiles, EPA, DEA, IRS, ATF and many other aspects of the welfare/warfare state.

March 13, 2006
The need for sound money, Mon., Mar. 13, 2006, 8:27 AM
http://www.billcara.com/archives/2006/03/the_need_for_so.html


Posted by: don_m [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 23, 2006 8:54 AM [link]

Re:

"So how did the country get by all through the 19th century without all of this government?

You really need to pick up some real history and economic texts and educate yourself."

Sir,

I don't read other people's version of history or economics for guidance; I live my own version every day.

Some of us don't have the luxury of insight by being alive during the nineteenth century to make a factual judgment of the limits or excesses of that era's government; however, We DO KNOW that there were disaffection by the common folks against the excesses of the Robber Barons, Child Labor, 15-hour work days, Living Wage, Immigration, Isolationism, Women's Rights, Minority Rights, Civil War, etc., (the very same issues we are debating today. The gold standard certainly didn't solve those issues then and it won't solve them today.
So, for those who yearn for the simplicity of the nineteenth century, sorry it isn't happening and those times wasn't as simple as some historians have lead us to believe. We are stuck in this "modern", complex, 21st century for good or bad.

Posted by: oratier [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 23, 2006 9:32 AM [link]

Kapur's paper is a simple conflation of the ideas of the Marxist dialectic theory into an investing theme. I am not very impressed with it. The main theme of the past 150 years has been about the poor getting access to wealth. Does Kapur have no history books on his shelf? Was Japan always a rich country? Was John D. Rockefeller born with a silver spoon in his mouth? Churn of resources and political power is the investing theme that I would follow.

Instead of plutonomy, I suggest he call it mickey-onomy for the Mickey Mouse kind of thinking he presupposes will impress us.

Able Ape

Posted by: ableape [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 24, 2006 12:40 PM [link]