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June 19, 2006

Commodity-based markets start the week down, Mon., 6/19/2006 6:19 AM

Metal prices and equity markets like Russia and Australia that are commodity price sensitive have started the week on a losing note. Spot gold is back to $567.

The Aussie All Ordinaries Index closed down -1.3 pct, with the big metals stocks down even more today.

Gold overnight has traded down from about $580 to $567, which seems to confirm more sidetracking in the 550-580 range.


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UPDATE: 12:50pm

The Russian index data and chart that was posted earlier had not been updated from Friday by my source vendor. Since this vendor chooses not to put a date on their chart, I was misguided into believing it was the current one because it was the one they were showing as being current.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 19, 2006 06:18:00 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market

Discourse

Posted by: real1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 19, 2006 6:40 AM [link]

Actually russian market closed up on Jun 19,
see http://www.quote.ru

Posted by: alberto_2_comment [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 19, 2006 11:14 AM [link]

On the liquidation of the Brazil fund (BZF), that had done so well. Speculation about the reason is "investors wanted access to their capital ASAP)", so they cashed in because they knew what was to come? (http://etf.seekingalpha.com/article/8199):


"It is interesting that the proposal adopted for this fund has changed from an open-ending to a liquidation. For different shareholders, either of these outcomes could be preferable. If a shareholder still wanted to invest in the Brazil Fund, but have the flexibility to sell their shares for NAV at any time, an open-ending would be better. But if the shareholder planned on selling their shares fairly soon, a liquidation would allow them to avoid the 2% redemption fee that would have been applied for the first six months. It looks like the biggest shareholders in BZF decided that they wanted access to their capital as soon as possible, and without a redemption fee."

Posted by: ursus [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 19, 2006 1:06 PM [link]

Could Bill or anyone else out there please comment on this parabolic theory (charts on link below).

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/chan061306.html

If this happens, gold would have to fall alot more before it becomes a buy again. Any comments?
Thanks.

Posted by: beisman69 [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 19, 2006 3:55 PM [link]

I'm a neophyte and have to agree: based on this chart, what little I know about charting suggests that gold could decline a lot further.

Bill may have on it on the money: there may be sidetracking for a while. I'd prefer Bill's suggested scenario....

BUT....

there's this troublesome chart. I echo beisman69's interest in hearing from others.

Posted by: GemmaStar [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 19, 2006 5:01 PM [link]

Second me on that one. That chart courtesy of beisman69 does look troublesome. Though the conventional argument against would probably go something like .. 'the UD is unlikely to go up much further and any decline is going to lead to gold going up in price since gold is priced in USD.' Than again I would like to hear more indepth and compelling arguments from the more illustrious posters on this blog.

Posted by: TheAdonis [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 19, 2006 5:09 PM [link]

beisman69 ,

The best I can say about those charts – Funny :)

I see nothing in common with nasdaq bubble and the metals bull market (which is still young in my opinion)


here is my chart for the long term


http://globalgold.blogspot.com/2006/06/long-term-gold-chart-elliott-wave.html

Posted by: real1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 20, 2006 4:41 AM [link]

real1, thanks for the chart (and site) address.

Posted by: GemmaStar [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 20, 2006 2:07 PM [link]