Usually this data is spun every which way, but today I think the scenario will be a little more realistic.

Unless the jobs growth is spectacular (unlikely) or the unemployment rate drops to wage-inflation warning levels (unlikely), I think the spin and the reality will pretty much align around an expectation that finally the Fed will pause (June 29) until its subsequent meeting on August 8.

However, my crystal ball is also telling me that following the Fed pause, energy and gold markets are going to soar this summer, causing the Fed to double up (i.e., raise by +50 basis points) in August " and that folks will be " finally " the end of the 2002-2006 stock cycle.

Or put another way, I believe the 2006 Bear Market in equities will be in full swing by mid 3Q06. By year-end, I expect to see a Dow at about 8800, which is over -20 pct down from present levels.

For the set-up to today's Jobs Report, I always review the excellent work of Evelina Tainer at Econoday as follows. But I suggest you go direct to the source rather than try to read her report in this exhibit.

Evelina will update her Jobs Report assessment an hour or so following the data release. I'll be checking in then, and also for the Factory Orders Report discussion.