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June 22, 2006

"Ain't no Fed big enough", Thurs., June 22, 2006, 7:19 AM

"There ain't no Fed big enough.. Ain't no war that's bad enough.. No data rigged enough.. To keep the Little People down, babe"—Bill Cara (Week in Review #17 2006-04-28).

Yesterday I gave you evidence that one leading Wall Street analyst is out to lunch when it comes to the gold bullion spot and futures markets or the goldminers he covers.

Then I took off for afternoon meetings that were (i) in preparation for my coming out of retirement to set up a new broker-dealer, and (ii) a chance to meet the management of Aurelian Resources at their Annual General Meeting.

With respect to Aurelian, I will write it up after the weekend when management and I have had the time to review what I plan to write. This is a junior gold exploration company that in the past 80 or 90 days has grown in market cap from under $20 million (CAD) to over $600 million. So it has become an "overnight" sensation.



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Is Aurelian the real thing? Yes, and you can take that to the bank.

The discovery hole and the one reported on yesterday are spectacular " as good as any gold discovery by any company at any time in my lifetime.

The company owns outright a humungous piece of land in Ecuador (which has very low country risk in my view), and they are financially solid with $21 million in the bank and no debt.

At some point I will visit the property because I believe Aurelian will become a major gold producer. Soon, every major broker-dealer gold analyst will begin to follow the company. It appears to be that good.

Presently there are just two portable drills that have been in use there because this region is quite remote. A major drilling company will arrive at the end of the month to discuss plans for a massive drilling program. There will be a planned step-out drill program about every 100 metres or so from the discovery holes. If the results are comparable " even half as good " every major mining company in the world will be signing Confidentiality Agreements and visiting asap.

As I was speaking with Aurelian CFO David Lewis who was a colleague at Coopers & Lybrand many years ago, I couldn't help but think of another former colleague who is CFO at Crystallex (AMEX: KRY). In my view, Crystallex (a Cramer favorite) is a dog with dubious properties, immense country risk, and saddled with colassal debt and relatively little cash.

But dibs on David's job, and his stock position.

There is a lot of outstanding stock " over 30 million shares " and the company is fairly valued here. Yesterday there was some stock sold on the news ("buy on rumor; sell on news"), but with the next few drill holes this is a stock that has the possibility to go much higher. It could drop a little too " but very little. In any event, the volume will be very high, and once the stock is put on a big board it will trade much more on average.

Like I say, I will write it up early next week, but Aurelian will be a company/stock that I intend to follow as much as any in the gold industry. The discovery was simply spectacular.

As to my alert at mid-day yesterday, I received a lot of mail today as gold continued to move higher yesterday and this morning.

Presently spot gold is at $588.85, after touching $595 a few minutes ago. This market will be volatile, but just remember, "There ain't no Fed big enough."

Over a week ago I called a bottom to the crashing prices and then last Thursday (I think it was) I said I was going in "gingerly". Yesterday morning I went in full steam and published the alert in a headline article of the kind I routinely do.



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Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 22, 2006 07:19:47 AM | Category: Gold , Gold Explorers

Discourse

I believe this is OTC listed as AUREF in the US

Posted by: C.Note [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 22, 2006 9:02 AM [link]

Folks,

Any theories on the strong upward thrust of the USD between midnight and the open today, and the subsequent decrease in spot gold?

I'm sure this is just part of the dance, but just wondering if anything else might be at work here? Could someone be knocking down gold to accumulate some positions here, or am I reading too much into this?

USD has hit resistance at 86.40-86.50 four times in the past week and a bit by my count, and looks to be making another run at that now.

Posted by: doug11 [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 22, 2006 9:45 AM [link]

doug11

Maybe it has something to do with one of the brokerages asking for a 50 basis pt rise in the interest rate next week. I didn't catch the name of the brokerage, but heard it on the radio while driving this a.m. However, that was before the leading indicator figure came out at 10 EDT

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 22, 2006 10:36 AM [link]

There is absolutely no tolerance for a 50 basis point rise in the Fed funds rate. The Fed commonly overshoots on interest rates on both sides. But a half point rise in rates on June 29 should it occur, will surely be the death knell for the U.S. economy.

We are at the tipping point right now, in my estimation. This U.S. administration needs to get a grip on spending immediately or else the economy is headed into a significant recession.

There is more weakness in the U.S. economy than many realize or are willing to admit.

Posted by: Todd [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 22, 2006 10:51 AM [link]

The dollar has been going up for weeks. The long bond is down today (interest rate up). This plus mercantilism are my guesses for the rise.

Posted by: alan [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 22, 2006 10:56 AM [link]

AUREF Update:

I use Fidelity from the USA for trading on line and found that placing the symbol AUREF.V in the quote window you will receive a 'real-time' quote in CAD (Canadian $).

Also, I was informed by their foreign trading desk there would be conversion fees amounting to about $0.03 (3-cents) per share above the normal broker fee.

Further, I use Bloomberg's currency conversion tool to have a firm feel for what I will actually be paying for the stock since the Fidelity online trade execution site will only be showing yesterday's closing price in USA$ .

Thus, I am able to trade on line without having to use a broker and paying more. Seems awkward but if you are a Fidelity trader, those are the hoops you have to jump through.

However, if someone knows an easier way to perform this task without using a broker on the Fidelity site please let me know.


Have no position ... yet .. waiting for Bill's write up ;)

Posted by: C.Note [TypeKey Profile Page] at June 24, 2006 7:29 AM [link]