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June 28, 2006
A ‘special situation' worthy of investigation, Wed., June 28, 2006, 8:15 AM
What is a "special situation" other than an opportunity for reward that surpasses the risks involved? In other words, it is an assessment of risk-reward like any other situation in the equity market except there are unknown circumstances where either the risk or the reward might change in a significant way.
Some traders focus their entire time seeking out special situations. For the most part, I tend to use bear markets for that purpose.
A bear market reflects the negative phase of the long-term stock cycle as it pertains to broad market equity indexes but it doesn't mean all prices fall or the shares of all companies ought to be avoided.
I see it as the best time to look into special situations like an Aurelian Resources, for example, or possibly a Northfield Labs.
Aurelian represents an area in which I have some expertise and experience, and so I am prepared to start (together with a colleague) a two-to-four week investigation, pending receipt of publicly-available data organized by the Company to help us in that study and report.
In the case of Northfield Labs, I have been alerted to the situation by a medical doctor who believes it is a ‘special situation' worthy of my time to investigate, and yours to review whatever I report.
My initial survey has turned up some positives and some negatives, but overall looks interesting. Before I start to formally investigate, I'd like to ask for input directly from an reader, particularly a medical doctor, who may have an opinion or knowledge of Northfield Labs product called PolyHeme®.
According to the Company website, "PolyHeme is a solution of chemically modified human hemoglobin that requires no cross matching and is compatible with all blood types. It has a shelf life in excess of 12 months."
This is a situation that may or may not be ‘special' but for sure it is about something that is common to all of us " our blood. If the product, which is being tested presently, is found to be "safe", i.e., relatively risk-free, then the rewards are virtually open-ended. Thus, it is a situation about which I feel you should be aware.
So, not having the resources at hand that would lead me to an initial opinion (necessary before I start to formally investigate), I am asking readers to send me their opinions. Please use my direct mail (bcara@billcara.com) rather than comment to this blog. I do not want to prejudice my further work if that happens to occur.
Thanks in advance.


GICS 35 Northfield Labs
Financial Data
Financial Data
(NFLD)
(NFLD)
UPDATE: As requested, please send mail about Northfield Labs to me. I will delete any reader comments related to NFLD on this website. To allow them to stand while I am planning on a formal investigation would, as I said, poison my work. Moreover, the Company is at a critical time in its product review process, and I do not care to unwittingly participate in a stock promotion. To allow reader comments to stand -- from doctors or anybody -- would require me to personally assess those comments, and frankly I have no time or inclination to do so. Hence, comments from doctors and other clinicians to me personally would be helpful. Thank you for your understanding.
bcara@billcara.com
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 28, 2006 08:15:28 AM | Category: Special Situation Equities
