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June 14, 2006
A bunch of short candidates? Wed., 6/14/2006 11:57 AM
Maybe short selling stocks is not your thing? Maybe you haven't done it before? If not, here is some reading on the subject.
I may have discussed short selling on the top educational part of this website. Please check.
Would you agree that tech stocks are still over-priced despite their huge pull-back to date? UBS thinks so. Download UBS June 13 report
I'll let you make up your own opinion, but I do agree with the UBS opinion that there has been a recent change in the dynamics between a U.S. company and its stock. The biggest drivers of this change were:
(i) revolution in corporate governance following Sarbanes-Oxley, July 30, 2002,
(ii) cut in the dividend tax rate, May 2003, and
(iii) mandatory expensing of employee stock options, June 15, 2005.
I also don't take issue with the UBS research that shows that:
"Despite correcting twice as much as market, Tech stocks trade at a 30% premium to S&P 500 on 2006E EPS, which we find unwarranted given:1) tech sales and EPS grew more slowly than S&P 500, 1995-2005; 2) tech's recent EPS momentum is unimpressive; 3) it has material consumer exposure; 4) high business risk; 5) most estimates exclude options; 6) low dividend payout."
Moreover I don't disagree that the UBS Strategist Stock Screen Matrix has identified "13 unattractive tech stocks". If a broker calls a stock "unattractive", you can pretty much take that as meaning sell/avoid/short sell.
Actually, as far as price goes, the only stocks in this group I wouldn't mind being short are: INTU, NVLS, CIEN and maybe SBL.


Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 14, 2006 11:57:58 AM | Category: Trader Tools
