« Stelco and steel reviewed, Thurs., June 29, 2006, 12:45 PM | Main | Taking protection the Bear way, Thurs., June 29, 2006, 4:45 PM »
June 29, 2006
217 point sucker rally, Thurs., June 29, 2006, 4:27 PM
Leading Wall Street strategist Bob Froehlich has just said something on ROBTV in mid-afternoon to the effect that traders have to circle the calendar for today because the rate rises are over, and if you are not fully invested in the equity market by July 2, you will have missed the boat. That's what the man said.
I say, "Save that tape! Let's expose this guy once and for all."
I don't know when Mr. Froehlich started his morning cheerleading exercises prior to starting work today, but I was blogging the following words of advice at 4:37am ET, which means I suppose that 99.99 pct of people in my time zone were asleep.
International equities are firm ahead of Fed decision, Thurs., June 29, 2006, 4:37 AMThe notion being floated early today is that economies are strong, there is little inflation and the Fed is going to tone down its message along with a raise in rate by +25 basis points. I suspect that the initial reaction to the Fed decision will be a boost in equity prices, but that will lead to major traders hitting bids and eventually driving down prices.
I think Froehlich is always asleep, but that's another story (lol). Next week, traders start hitting bids.
Here is the well-done Econoday report on today's Fed rate hike. Evelina Tainer you can take seriously.
Here is the 130 point Dow 30 rally since the FOMC decision at 2:15pm (+217 on the day).

For those of you who are looking forward to a Fed rate drop, and have bought stock today, keep this picture handy " and then take a look at the Dow 30 (U.S. equity market) performance from May 16, 2000 (the last peak of the Fed rate hikes) [Funds Rate 6.50; Discount Rate 6.00] [Dow 10626] to Nov-06-2002 [Funds Rate 1.25; Discount Rate 0.75] [8537].

That's right, Mr. Froelich is (let's say) misguided.
But does it really matter what these Wall Street Talking Heads say anyway? We have been on to their game for a long time, right?
In any event, that's not today's story anyway " well the "sucker rally" is " but not these clowns on Financial TV. The real story is that the $USD has been in serious crash mode and $GOLD is up over $11 to hit $600.50. Crude Oil ($WTIC) is now at $73.65. And the Cdn Dollar was up almost a full point to US$0.900.

The $USD is clearly in free fall, but all the clowns on TV would talk about is +217 points on the Dow 30!
This is a gold rally because the USD (like the equity market) is done like dinner. Printing money like I'm sure happened today can only take equity prices so high, or extend housing prices so far.
217 Dow points is a kick in the bucket to what I see coming soon on the downside. Don't be a sucker.
Protect your wealth. Don't hand it to Mr. Froehlich's associates.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on June 29, 2006 04:27:30 PM | Category: Cara Today in the Market
Discourse
Bill - didn't you close out your Gold and GDX position? I think GDX blew through your stop - and at the end of the post you said that you were out of all positions.
Posted by: Damian Roskill
at
June 29, 2006 4:58 PM [link]
Play the momentum; however, adjust those trailing stops.
Posted by: oratier
at
June 29, 2006 5:05 PM [link]
I took a moment to study the above discount rate chart. IMHO, significant events drive Markets and Sept 11, 2001 (911) and the wars that followed were significant enough to impact the Markets during the 2001 - 2004 timeframe - maybe. Note the similarity between interest rates movement and the DJIA. In a normal market environment there would have been an inverse relationship. Very interesting!
Posted by: oratier
at
June 29, 2006 6:50 PM [link]

Well said Bill, and some good evidence/data to back it up...I took this opportunity to begin closing some positions taken in the last few weeks. Still positioned with a core holding in metals/gold.
Posted by: sergio
at
June 29, 2006 4:50 PM [link]