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May 9, 2006

Yamana performs to my expectations, Tues., May 9, 2006, 5:02 PM

In a recent blog April 21 at about 8am, I recommended you look into a (primarily) gold miner called Yamana Gold (AMEX: AUY and TSX: YRI). In 13 trading sessions since I gave you the heads up, Yamana is up itself +18.7 pct.

Today, Pat Bolland interviewed Yamana CEO Peter Marrone at 1:50pm on ROBTV, where the video replay is available. It's important to watch.

What I have been doing for you is setting up these stocks for the time there is a significant pull-back in markets. So far, those traders with an appetite for risk/reward have jumped on my recommendations. But many of you are risk averse.

So here's the deal. These are producing mines (except for U.S. Gold -- but that's a lock). The metals are in a very long term bull market because of global economic expansion, the world being awash in money, interest rates being relatively low, a 20-year cycle (1981-2000) that favored financial assets, etc. Some of these miners hold excellent assets, have no debt, operate in jurisdictions that are quite stable, have good management, etc.

You put all this together, and, depending on price, these stocks should have a place in your portfolio.

After a pull-back (I call the ebb tide), which will complete the second major wave in a metals bull market, I believe that most mining company share prices will return with the flood tide. It is then up to us mariners to decide how best to move forward. I say it will be with the shares of companies I have been writing about.

Also on ROBTV today was an interview with U.S. Gold's Rob McEwen. I don't want to give a false impression that Rob sold out when he retired from Goldcorp (NYSE: NYSE: G and TSX: GG). No, Rob is still Goldcorp's biggest shareholder, and a huge booster.

If you caught the McEwen interview (also on Replay), you'll hear him talk about where he's been investing his (considerable) money. He mentions Latin America. I'll tell you where " actually I have already told you when I said that I like Guyana Goldfields.

(March 10 8:45am blog) For me personally, I'll probably stick with the jockeys and horses I know best, which will include: Alamos Gold (TSX: AGI), Guyana Goldfields (TSX: GUY), High River Gold (TSX: HRG) and U.S. Gold (OTC BB: USGL). Bear in mind, these are small, and, to some people, highly speculative securities.

If you check the record, I think you'll discover that Rob McEwen holds close to 5 pct of Guyana Goldfields. And, btw, the prior day's close of GUY (March 8) was the low (Don't you love it when I do this?). Since my article (42 trading sessions), GUY is up +78.6 pct from $3.98 to $7.11.

And I had so much fun at PDAC 2006 too! Tango, silver bars, old friends, 25-year old rum and then blogging at 3am; living large.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 9, 2006 05:02:01 PM | Category: Goldminer Producers

Discourse

Since December 1, 2005, Yamana is up 150%.

Long AUY and a weakening dollar.

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2006 5:23 PM [link]

bill and friends --

with the situation as it stands today what is the best course for one of the little people who hasn't invested yet in metals or mining and still has the savings in a u.s. money market account?

thank you for your patience

Posted by: twoeagles [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2006 6:12 PM [link]

IMO there is too much risk to be buying here if you are doing it for a "trade." If not, then buy some gold coins and throw them in the safe and forget about the ST gyrations of the market.

Side note-Has anyone been hearing/experiencing a lack of "liquidity" in the metal pits as of late? Copper, Silver, Gold, et. al. are from what I am experiencing having problem with markets being made. There are large spreads between the bid/ask at these extremely overbought levels. My thought is that with this being the case, if the Fed wanted to intervene they could certainly have a rather dramatic impact.

Posted by: ihatecnbc2000 [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2006 8:38 PM [link]

Hi twoeagles, You have made my day with your letter. Today I received mail from India, Indonesia, Hong Kong, England, Trinidad, and goodness knows where else from outside North America. And I do every day.

But none has been so pleasant as your personal letter to me in January where you talked of my upcoming move to Bahamas, where you wrote: "bon et sûr voyage and may the great sópów (Blackfoot for strong wind) bring you home safely".

Two thumbs up.

I'll soon have my Bahamas website linked, and everybody will get to see my dream.

As for U.S. money market funds today, it's not a bad place. The bond market has been sinking due to the inflation issue that Wall Street and the Administration once denied.

The stock market is over-priced as well - as ihatecnbc2000 says. But if we do have a severe shake-out in equities, here's where I think the Little People should be deploying assets after they see that prices have fallen a lot.

10 pct in Templeton Russia Fund (NYSE: TRF)
10 pct in China Fund (NYSE: FXI)
5 pct in Hong Kong ETF (AMEX: EWH)
10 pct in India Fund (NYSE: IFN)
5 pct in Japan ETF (AMEX: EWJ)
5 pct in Canada ETF (AMEX: EWC)
5 pct in Australia ETF (AMEX: EWA)
5 pct in Brazil ETF (AMEX: EWZ)
10 pct in U.S. S&P 500 (AMEX: SPY)
10 pct in U.S. Nasdaq (NDQ: QQQQ)
10 pct in Europe S&P 350) (AMEX: IEV)
5 pct in Gold Bullion ETF (AMEX: GLD)
5 pct in Silver ETF (AMEX: SLV)

That's just off the top of my head as to a watch list that the average person could be following.

When you see the RSI technical indicator for the Weekly price series down below 30-35 for these stocks, that's a time to start thinking about switching from Treasury Bills back into the market.

Until then, learn as much as as you can about these ETF's. And if and when you buy, go slow and learn to be patient.

I'll write about this tomorrow.

Posted by: Bill Cara [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 9, 2006 9:42 PM [link]

Bill,

You may want to think about replacing India Fund (IFN) with the other India centered Closed-End-Fund MS INDIA INV FD (IIF). IFN is currently trading a whopping 37% premium to it's NAV and has over 7% shares outstanding short.

When the (overdue) correction does happen, IFN will fall much faster than IIF.

Posted by: mSquare [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 10, 2006 12:48 AM [link]

But mSquare, this list is a Watch List, not a recommended portfolio. I thought I had made it perfectly clear when I said "The stock market is over-priced ... But if we do have a severe shake-out in equities, here's where I think the Little People should be deploying assets after they see that prices have fallen a lot".

Obviously, because IFN trades at such a high premium to NAV following a long Bull run, I expect it to fall a lot. I am simply pointing readers ahead to the day when they ought to buy these funds.

I'll write about this today.

Posted by: Bill Cara [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 10, 2006 5:53 AM [link]

Bill

A couple of months ago (3-4) both you and Dr. GloomBoomDoom separately recommended EWT (Taiwan ETF) as an international alternative in a diversified portfolio. Not bad--it's up about 15% since then, including yesterday when it dropped a little.

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 10, 2006 9:00 AM [link]