So, if WMT can be bought in the low 40's, say 41, and the company, which Value Line rates as having 100-pct earnings predictability, produces 2008 earnings of $3.65, and if the market is in a new bull phase at that time where WMT is accorded an 18 PE in recognition of continuous double-digit growth rates in revenues, cash flow, earnings and dividends, then the share price will have moved into the $66 range.

Even Value Line opines that WMT will trade in a 78-92 range anytime after 1Q08 (based on their chart).

So using my target accumulation of say 41 and target distribution of say 66 in say 24 months, what is my projected return? Well, a gain of 25 on a cost base of 41 would be a +61 pct gain over two years, which is about +26.75 pct per annum. You add a total dividend (2 years) of almost $1.50 (say $1.47) " which like U.S. treasury debt interest is certain to be paid -- then your total return would be about +28.3-pct p.a.

Those are better than Warren Buffett numbers, and would put you into the top 2-pct performance rating of all Wall Street professional managers. So Mom & Pop who shops there or works there doesn't have to be chasing gold stocks with mines in risky jurisdictions. They can do all their shopping right at home.

Why do I have confidence in Wal-Mart management? There are several reasons:
1. Great track record
2. Great business model
3. China
4. India
5. Brazil
6. Japan
7. Food and other staples (which is why I put WMT into sector 30 now)
8. Video sales on the Web

For the same reason that I like Dell as the finest example of mass manufacturing and distribution, I like Wal-Mart as the finest example of purchasing and distribution in the world.

With a revaluation of the China Yuan, I think WMT has a good chance of pulling back. But with a broad market bear phase, WMT will definitely ebb with the tide.

And at the cycle bottom, you can wait for all the business media horror stories about how screwed up is Wal-Mart, labor problems, and on and on, AND THAT'S WHEN YOU BUY.

Just be patient.

GICS 30 Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) (WMT) Financials (Value Line: WMT)