« Community discussion for Tues., May 23, 2006, 4:44 PM | Main | Just who are the Gnomes? Wed., May 24, 2006, 8:36 AM »

May 23, 2006

Why the People will win, Tues., May 23, 2006, 11:17 PM

Before going to bed tonight, I thought I'd google "Bill Cara" to see what people are saying about me. You might think its ego, but actually I'm just looking for the day the mud slinging begins.

Before he passed away last summer, my Dad advised me to cool it. He said: "You keep on like this and you are going to make an awful lot of enemies." I agreed, but then I said, "But Dad, I've met Presidents and Prime Ministers, and they all put their pants on same as me."

That's true, and yes I did say that to my Dad. But I know that with me the People are going to win.

The first google hit I got tonight I copied. Here it is.


003m005.gif


The issue is James Cramer going on in his TV show about a Venezuela gold miner by the name of Crystallex (AMEX: KRY). Normally I ignore the Cramer picks because frankly I can't stand the screaming. I have said this before and readers reacted negatively, but deep down I like Cramer. I haven't yet bought his book, but I will.

(It has to be better than Jeremy Rifkin's The Hydrogen Economy. Undeterred though, this week I'm buying another book on hydrogen because I want to learn.)

The point is that it's not whether you like somebody but that you consider what they say, and decide whether or not it is helpful. So one night I listened to Cramer on his block-buster CNBC show and I recoiled. Man alive, I thought to myself, I could make 20 pct trading short against that one.

And then I thought about it some more, and finally decided to write a bold statement that if Cramer was buying, I was selling. In other words, let's get it on.

It's easier said than done, but it's a fact that when I do these things I seldom lose.

Now hear me out: I pick my spots. Moreover I get to choose the time to write the follow-up that pats myself on the back. That's totally unfair, I know.

I'm not going to apologize.

If you had traded Crystallex (AMEX: KRY) my way (short) at $5.37 (nowhere near the top a day or two earlier when Cramer was beating the KRY drum by the way), then three weeks later you would be up +25.9 pct. In other words Cramer was down -25.9 pct in three weeks.

Some expert! Booyah, I'm going to make you money! NOT.

Now, if it was +9.9 pct in three weeks, I could be a real jerk and say that I was up like over +220 pct compounded annually. So what can I say when I'm up +25.9 pct in three weeks? Nothing!

You see, this is not a blog and website that has one iota of ill-will toward the personalities in the market (well maybe Pisani; just kidding!). We are here to learn something, that's all.

Really; that's all.

The lesson is that if you want to act like children and follow a pied piper, then expect the same consequences told in that very fairy tale. Your portfolio dies and goes to what we call money heaven. You don't see it again.

I'm not like Cramer; I'm not here to make you money (booyah; let's make some money). To the contrary.

By now you know that Cramer has got a good shtick going on. So my thing is not to make you money; but just to make you think.

In a way this is an ego thing because I want you to think like me. I want you to be a total skeptic about every other opinion you hear in the market (including my very own). I want you to study; to learn; what is truly going down in stock promotion, and what tools you will need to overcome all these conflicting influences in your life so that you can approach markets as simply as you would any business.

Portfolio management is a business.

Repeat after me: "My portfolio is my business."

It is not Cramer's job, or CNBC''s job to make you money. It is not Bill Cara's job. You are not paying us to do that. There is no business contract when you read me or watch CNBC/Cramer.

Hopefully I have it right when I say with the latter its entertainment and with me its education, information and facilitation. But I have to acknowledge that the jury is still out. I have been doing this for just 2 years and 2 months. That makes me a baby.

So I'll close this off and then go to bed by giving you the chart today for KRY. Cramer was telling you to buy it at over $6.00 as the best thing he could recommend in the gold market. At $5.37, I told you it was a dog. That was three weeks ago today. Now KRY is $3.98. The point is did you learn anything?

You see, I already know Cramer failed you. In my case, as I say, the jury is still out.


003m006.gif


By the way, did you take note of the volume of KRY stock that was blown off at $6.00? That's what I said when I wrote that Cramer was the take-out guy. These same people must have really loved getting back in yesterday when the stock was down at $3.61 less than a month later.

Don't be a sucker. Do your homework. The data is there. The comments are here " even if I don't have the time to respond myself right away.

Everybody here, I think, wants you to do well. This is a community. Sometimes we'll lose; but mostly we'll be smiling.

Just remember; "We The People".

And now I'll try to remember where the bedroom is. LOL

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 23, 2006 10:17:55 PM | Category: Cara Today in the Market

Discourse

Bill, you must know your blog is listed on one of the best financial/economic websites that I have been reading for years - the financial blogs are free...the rest USED to be free but it is still very good....this is my 'economic degree' material url.

People should check this out if they don't already:

http://www.rgemonitor.com/component/option,com_newsfeeds/task,aggr/feedid,10003

Posted by: bbcmoney [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 24, 2006 12:02 AM [link]

I tend to keep my mouth shut when I see things like this, but I read a column of his today that reminded me of one of yours from a while back. By the way, he apparantly said he was still long on KRY in the lightning round today.

But back to my point. He had an article today which reminded me of one you did a while back. I think I've linked correctly to the articles I've quoted from. It was actually a lot further back that I realized but here it is all the same.

http://www.billcara.com/archives/2005/04/cloudy_constell.html

"CNBC's Cramer has been touting Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) on his interesting MadMoney program. I'll take that trade; I say sell it!

Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) $58.34
International producer and marketer of beverage alcohol brands, including wine, spirits and imported beer categories. Recently bought Mondavi.

Diageo (NYSE: DEO) $59.59
International supplier of branded food and beverage products with operations in four principal segments: spirits and wine, packaged food, beer and quick service restaurants. Brands include Pillsbury, Smirnoff, Burger King, Johnnie Walker and J&B.
"

Today's close
STZ $24.17 (adj 48.34 - 16-May-05 [2:1])
DEO $66.15

It's taken a year but it seems he now sees your point.

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/madmoneywrap/10287188.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

"Cramer's No. 1 stock pick in the sin sector is Diageo." and "Cramer's second pick, "although not a close second," is Constellation Brands "
16-May-05 [2:1]

Posted by: rusticuf [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 24, 2006 12:07 AM [link]

Portfolio management is a business and its pay for performance. I trade a small pool of money for a small group of family and friends. That's what the "Kitty" part of CalexKitty represents, as in Jimmy Stewart saying, “I got the Kitty!" in "Its a Wonderful Life". Most people still don't want to learn to manage their own money and is frightening, so I don't mind, in fact enjoy, helping a few close people until they wake up to the necessity of the discipline.

I worry about my parent's retirement accounts in the hands of Wall Street. I got my dad to start skipping some of the downside over the long term in his account by moving his money around at key points in the market, based on very light and simple technical analysis of trendlines that he felt comfortable with. He has the option of putting it all in cash with one day's notice and his options are actually pretty good compared to some of the retirement options I've seen.

I notice many of my friends don't have the option of moving money as freely as my dad's extra cushy government pension does. I don't have a 401k or IRA so its odd to see their web-based control panels and the limited methods of control. One friend is with Fidelity and although she has ten or twelve options, not one of them is cash. Fidelity seems to provide the illusion of control without actually giving control. I don't want to single out Fidelity in particular, but the facts are the facts. Most 401ks get beat up every time the market crests, but the managers still walk away with more dough per year than most little people will earn in a lifetime.

I don't know how Cramer is still on television. The first time I saw the program I thought, "I wish I could see show dossier before the show aired." Then I thought, "hey ...isn't that illegal? How does this show even exist?"

It is almost impossible to believe that there are not at least a few people front running his show. I figured he'd be hauled off by the SEC within a week. Then he even got a subpoena and threw it on the ground and lambasted it on air. So the SEC backed down - and made a public statement, tail between their legs. Cramer even has his own spot right in the middle of the final hour of trading where he gets to scream out with glee, “Stop Trading!� as if somehow he controlled the market. At half past three during the open and after hours, it appears to some degree, he does.

Posted by: CalexKitty [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 24, 2006 1:30 AM [link]

I sit on a committee that oversees the fund selection for my company's 401K. It has been an interesting experience. The company that administers our plan uses SSB (Citigroup) as their advisor and fund manager.

I have participated in programs with less flexibility and choices before so I will not complain but rather make an observation.

In all the meetings we have had this year, I continue to bring up the possibility of allowing ETF's in the program. Every time I bring it up, the 401K administrator does the cha cha cha around me. It is clear to me that keepers of the 401 accounts do not want ETF's around. Just another wall that needs to be torn down.

As for Jim Cramer, I love his mad money show. It is pure entertainment. He is the PT Barnum of Wall St. Of course, I would never take anything he says about buying or selling stocks seriously.....Well ok, I have shorted a couple turds that he has recommended along the way ;)

Posted by: cb [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 24, 2006 4:00 AM [link]

cb,

they want your commission :) with etf you have less volatility = less risk and less trading = less commission = bad for Citigroup :) understand that

Posted by: Jansing [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 24, 2006 6:29 AM [link]

Steady. Steady. Steady.

Gold down $10.80 at 7am after being very volatile all night. We may yet get that next leg down.

Plan your trades. Trade your plan.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 24, 2006 7:02 AM [link]

BCA notes money on the move-

"Several classic defensive industries have begun to outperform, a notable trend change given that it began even before the recent stock market correction."

http://www.bcaresearch.com/public/story.asp?pre=PRE-20060518.GIF

Posted by: stockman [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 24, 2006 8:05 AM [link]

In regards to yesterdays sudden collapse into the close-

"Bird Flu Spooks Markets

Bloomberg.com posted a story at 1:43 PM this afternoon indicating a possible human to human transmission of the bird flu virus in Indonesia. Clearly the markets did not like this news, and more and more people seem to be hearing about it, as the SPDR's (SPY) are trading down another 70 cents after hours."

http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/2006/05/bird_flu_spooks.html

Posted by: stockman [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 24, 2006 8:07 AM [link]

stockman-

That is a spin job by the bulls. After a gap open the markets trended downward from 11 am on. Lower highs, lower lows. When bids didn't materialize late, the bulls walked away. That story didn't come out until almost 2pm. JMHO.

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 24, 2006 10:20 AM [link]

cb - instead of having ETFs as 401k choices, what you ought to do is have the self-directed 401k brokerage option. Fidelity has a great program. Then your employees can buy virtually any stock, bond, mutual fund, or money market that they want.

Posted by: Novalawyer [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 24, 2006 10:23 AM [link]

We have much reference to the little people here, and we know who we are,
but just who are the Big People or Gnomes?
While viewing the RGEMoniter site, posted by bbcmoney, thanks, I came across this
interesting effort that gives us a birds eye view of the power we face.
Yes, we have Bill's blog, but the Gnomes are not to be easily over come.
Keep in mind as we gleefully watch the price of gold rise, it represents everything they
oppose...the little people gaining understanding and control of the truth.
Know thine Enemy!
http://www.theyrule.net/2004/tr2.php?mapid=2993

Posted by: buteos [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 24, 2006 1:19 PM [link]

Jansing,
The program does allow for the account you mention for deferred compensation, it was not mentioned for the 401 plan. As a member of the committee, I also want to drink my own kool-aid, so opting out into a private account doesn't represent the masses.

What I would like to see is model portfolios with ETF's along side the mutual funds and then eventually displace the funds altogether. It is probably going to happen once all the gnomes have enough ETF's in their universe to have a revenue nuetral impact to the business (or the competition offers it and they start losing business).

Posted by: cb [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 24, 2006 3:21 PM [link]