A week ago in the midst of a crashing commodities market, and knowing my people would be in state of shock and awe, I had to depart for dental surgery that I knew would be right at the upper limit of my own pain threshold.

So it wasn't a matter of choose your poison, I was forced to take both. But, rather than wimp out, I walked right into that tunnel not knowing if the light ahead was an oncoming train and told you to buy the commodity stocks.

After my return, and more than one dose of Tylenol 2's, I told you I had bought ECA and SU in the energy sector 10, and GG and GLG, two goldminers, in the basic materials sector 15.

I knew that my words would serve to stun some readers " but that was exactly my point. I was afraid that an emotional state called 'in extremis' would set in and that the readers who were ready to act would be mostly hung up in analysis paralyis. So I said that sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and do it.

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Friday May 19 9:35am blog: "Now I'm saying it's time to buy a little gold, and shares of the junior goldminers and prospectors. You buy a little, not shoot the bolt. You buy into weakness. You watch and wait for more weakness, which if it comes, you buy a little more."

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Week In Review May 20: "With the severe shake-out in the commodities market that had taken down many of the oils by more than 10 pct over the previous two weeks, I decided that Friday morning just before my mad rush to the dental office that I would step into stocks like SU and ECA (oils) and GG and GLG (golds), for a trade.

Don't ask me to explain this any more than I had my mind mostly on an upcoming root canal. And I would have written this up except that on my way to the dentist my car dropped a cylinder (I'm told) on the highway, and the triple freezing and stop over at the garage on my way home (to pick up a temp car) took long enough for the freezing to wear off and I headed straight to bed. Except for a two hour break, I slept for 18 hours.

Now I can see that I was just an hour or two early on Friday morning and that the corrective (bullish) wave has begun. I will likely be out of those positions soon (however) because I expect the market to become rather like a slinky toy here, and the drops could be large ones like the past seven sessions."

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How did it work out? Before I list the results to date, let me say that I think you know me well enough by now to trust that I would admit failure if it was there, and that I'd arrogantly bow in the mirror if I was right in my market call.

Sore back this week? You bet.

I really should move that wall mirror out of my office! It does lead to personal issues.

From the close a week ago, here are the results:
ECA +6.04 pct
SU +4.65 pct
GG +2.22 pct
GLG +11.87 pct
Average gain over 5 sessions: +6.20 pct!

From the open, a week ago Friday, which was the time of my action recommendation:
ECA +10.44 pct
SU +7.16 pct
GG +3.94 pct
GLG +17.30 pct
Average gain over 6 sessions: +9.71 pct!!

The majority of Funds in the market have not done as well in the past 52 weeks, nevertheless one week!

How can I say that? Well, I speak only the truth. You know that about 75-80 pct of Funds do not beat the market.

And how well has the U.S. market done in the past 52-weeks? Well, the S&P 500 is up +6.98 pct and Nasdaq up +3.40 pct. This week, the S&P 500 was up +1.01 pct and Nasdaq up +0.36 pct.

The issue here is, did Bill Cara just take another lucky random walk on the way to the dentist, or do his trading methods really work?

I have no axe to grind. This blog is free because you have an opportunity to learn how to trade without getting diddled by people who don't know what they are doing, or care about the implications.

So without further ado, here is the WIR.

Global Market Summary

International Equities: With oil prices recovering (for now at least), the equity markets in Canada and Russia also recovered. But it was still a tough week for markets in India, China and Japan, which are undergoing a purging of speculative excesses.

U.S. Equities : Eight of 10 ETF's and 22 of the Dow 30 were up. Following the recovery day a week ago Friday, the markets bounced higher this week following a successful bond auction on Wed. These rising markets will run into problems the day that bonds have a significant sell-off, so don't fall asleep.

Dow 30 : 22 up -- 8 down. That's a big turnaround. Can it last through the econ news this week? We'll have to see. But remember the slinky toy. Sooner or later, equities will follow bonds until capital market risks are in balance with potential rewards. With a slowing economy, slowing earnings growth, rising inflation, etc, there is an ebb tide underway.

U.S. Sector ETFs: 8 up: 2 down (XLE the best @ +2.0 pct, SMH way down -2.8 pct)
First segment: most influenced by commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #1 (+2.0 pct); oil price recovery
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #6 (+1.0 pct); metals up, but chemicals down
20: Industrials (XLI): #8 (+0.3 pct); a real mixed bag this week
Second segment: most influenced by consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #9 (-0.03 pct); EBAY stands alone
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #2 (+2.0 pct); WMT up +4.9 pct
35: Healthcare (IYH): #4 (+1.1 pct); drugs were up, but facilities down
Third segment: most influenced by interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #5 (+1.0 pct); GS & MER up, but foreign banks down
45: Tech (SMH chips): #10 (-2.8 pct); 15 weak days in a row!!
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): #7 (+0.6 pct); rate relief again this week
55: Utilities (XLU): #3 (+1.7 pct); rate relief again here too

Bonds: My advice of a week ago: "But after a pause here for a week or so, rates will lift again because inflation is still a problem, and budget deficits must be financed, and the foreign carry trade is being (or will be) unwound as Japan's bank rate will sooner or later rise to combat (domestic) real estate speculation." Rates didn't go higher, which was my call. But they may soon do that.

Commodities: $CRB bounced off the 50-day Moving Average and rallied + 2.7 pct W/W. They had been down -6.4 pct a week ago as metals and oil prices got smashed. They are basing for a summer rally.

Oil & Gas: The $WTIC futures rallied +3.3 pct W/W, which served to rally the oil sector (XLE up +2.0 pct) as well as the Russian and Canadian equity markets. But traders are watching sales and inventory data to catch first wind of an economic slowdown. Ultimately, I think that's going to happen and we'll see oil back to the mid-40's, say a year from now.

Gold: $GOLD gained +0.6 pct on Friday, which meant the loss on the week was only -0.8 pct. This is a tough call, but I think the odds are in favor of gold sidetracking here. A cycle low of $637.50 was hit Wed, and the 50d MA is 627.61 (and rising), so there is a measure of support here. But with the Indian (and Middle East) equity speculators getting whacked, I can't see them chasing gold right here ($653.80).

Goldminers: The U.S. goldminers index did rally +1.82 pct W/W to close Friday at 142.59, a similar move to the Cdn goldminers. While I think the recent low of 133.13 is the cycle low for $XAU, this index is susceptible to being tested further on the downside. I may hang in for a week or two (except GLG and GG/G, which will now go to USGL), but I don't expect the summer rally to start yet.

Forex: Two weeks ago with $USD down to 83.88, I wrote: "The Daily data chart looks spectacular. The nuk-u-lar meltdown started the morning of April 17... The question now is, can the Fed stop the run on the bank?" Then a week ago, I wrote: "The implication of course was the Fed was going to try. This week $USD was up +1.2 pct, and the brief rally may continue." This week, $USD was up again by +0.4 pct W/W, but only after a rally on Friday (+0.6 pct). Can it beat the short-term cycle high of 85.47, and then crossover the 50d MA (87.30)? I doubt that. There's something about a massacre in Iraq that bothers me regarding the $USD.

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Sector ETF:

After 10 for 10 ETFs were down the previous two weeks, remember my words of the last WIR: "it looks like a bit of a panic. But the Hourly data charts show that it's probably a little too early to panic." That was true (what else?); this week, 8 out of 10 sectors were up.

A week ago I was trying to explain the reversal that was yet to happen (but did), and then went on to question how long this week's rally could last. Are you getting the picture? Like I'm always a step or two ahead.

So last week, in referring to the rally that didn't happen until this week, I wrote:

"Is this (relatively strong consumer sector) really a sustainable trend or just a temporary port in a storm? You know, with all the jobless claims, and a major Fed report saying that the economy is slowing, and the wealth effect from a rising real estate market no longer happening, and; and; and; I just can't buy the argument that Mom & Pop are going to send their kids to more movies, buy more electronic games and music, etc. Keeping them safe at home watching American Idol (and not spending $$$)? Now that I can see; but even that's over this coming week. And the financials and techs " you know, the sectors that are supposed to lead every U.S. equity market rally " are going nowhere. They came in at #6 and #7 this week, nudged out by the three USD and Commodity price sensitive sectors that were in total disarray, with the latter caused more by profit-taking than by any long-term common sense. So where other than the farm and supermarket is the beef? No, even a likely rally that's due this week is probably cat meat, and disposed of fairly quickly.

And didn't you just laugh this week when I rattled off the headlines in the WIR from a week ago: "So if Earnings Season couldn't drive this market through all-time record highs, what is it going to be? The end of inflation, lower interest rates, next quarter's earnings, the end of war and civil strife in the world, the ‘Snow'man's replacement, Google Finance, the capitulation of OPEC, the return of Al Gore? I dunno, but I can tell you that I don't see anything on the horizon, including the U.S. cavalry, that is going to save the day."

So today on CNN I'm watching video of a chauffeured Al Gore using his wireless Internet (you remember, the one he invented?) with the voice-over planting more seeds about his return to presidential politics. And then there was talk of Don Evans replacement of John Snow. And also video of a 28-person massacre by U.S. marines (which just may be the final straw?), and an EBAY-YHOO deal to thwart the google monster, and on and on.

But I explained a week ago how I see the equity market scenario playing out.

"What I do see coming for the next couple months is a series of lower highs and lower lows like a slinky toy in action, and I see that capital is trying to find a port in the storm. And in the most recent two weeks that port was nowhere near India (down "16.69 pct) or Russia (down "19.95 pct). "

For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds. The table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLE	55.10	0.18	0.33%	2.00%	-2.89%	-3.57%	4.55%	2.74%	8.04%	33.38%
XLP	24.09	0.00	0.00%	1.99%	1.77%	1.09%	2.77%	1.73%	1.65%	2.77%
XLU	31.63	0.34	1.09%	1.74%	1.12%	0.99%	-1.16%	-2.77%	-0.38%	5.75%
IYH	60.82	0.41	0.68%	1.06%	0.65%	-1.60%	-4.42%	-6.29%	-2.59%	-1.70%
XLF	32.94	0.27	0.83%	1.04%	-0.78%	-3.00%	2.30%	0.15%	1.51%	12.50%
XLB	32.56	0.54	1.69%	0.96%	-3.67%	-2.81%	5.30%	2.65%	9.78%	16.58%
IYZ	25.00	0.16	0.64%	0.60%	-0.40%	-2.19%	8.84%	-0.16%	3.99%	8.27%
XLI	34.14	0.19	0.56%	0.29%	-2.26%	-1.13%	7.94%	4.53%	8.00%	12.49%
XLY	33.67	0.11	0.33%	-0.03%	-1.26%	-1.23%	2.03%	0.66%	-0.03%	1.75%
SMH	34.20	0.20	0.59%	-2.79%	-4.76%	-9.16%	-9.81%	-7.44%	-8.70%	-1.53%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into your browser and clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

This week, XLE was up +2.00 pct to 55.10, and Crude Oil ($WTIC) was up +3.3 pct. That makes XLE the best performer this week of my 10 ETF's. For several weeks, it was running #9 or 10.

You know it's May. We're not even into humid weather yet and Wall Street is pushing photo's of hurricanes and notices of cruise ship travel super deals at us, just so we don't miss the point that fear can drive oil prices higher.

What; are we children? Is this like starting the Christmas shopping season the day after Thanksgiving?

When does the sell-side get it? We watch and trade prices. We also read quality research on the oils from Peters and TD Newcrest.
Download TD Newcrest May 26 report on Oil&Gas
Download Peters May 23 report on Oil&Gas
Download Peters May 25 Overview of Oilfield Services
Download Peters May 18 data of Oilfield Services

Here's the XLE Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IMO	112.89	3.29	3.00%	9.80%	7.20%	3.85%	8.55%	16.83%	16.83%	62.24%
ECA	48.77	0.64	1.33%	6.04%	-2.98%	-2.56%	4.43%	16.01%	5.61%	41.40%
SU	80.62	0.31	0.39%	4.65%	-3.81%	-5.97%	23.03%	4.88%	37.98%	110.77%
STO	29.63	0.42	1.44%	4.63%	-4.51%	-9.61%	22.79%	13.79%	30.41%	65.53%
CVX	59.83	0.34	0.57%	2.33%	-2.53%	-1.95%	1.27%	3.78%	2.20%	11.37%
XOM	61.58	0.06	0.10%	1.87%	-1.06%	-2.38%	5.32%	1.92%	2.45%	9.53%
PBR	90.65	4.65	5.41%	1.00%	-9.93%	-8.28%	21.32%	-0.98%	33.96%	92.95%
CEO	78.24	0.65	0.84%	0.33%	-2.18%	-5.37%	13.08%	-9.13%	15.57%	47.21%
TOT	65.84	0.22	0.34%	-50.57%	-53.52%	-52.30%	-49.38%	-48.43%	-48.65%	-41.28%

Yes, the Cdn oilers (IMO, ECA and SU) did ok (hooray!) and Big Oil (XOM and CVX) did well enough at +2 pct to move the XLE that far.

That was a nice move from Wed afternoon, but XLE is now overbought and not going much higher without a higher $WTIC. For that we'll have to see the inventory data on Thursday, I think it is.

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials sector ETF (XLB) was up +0.96 pct W/W to close at 32.56, which was good for just #6 out of 10 ETF best performer on the week.

Here's the XLB Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
RTP	227.90	6.88	3.11%	7.49%	-4.26%	2.33%	20.70%	16.51%	38.05%	90.73%
NUE	112.36	3.44	3.16%	7.06%	0.77%	3.25%	62.00%	29.60%	70.63%	112.68%
PD	88.26	2.08	2.41%	6.26%	-7.48%	2.40%	18.20%	20.85%	31.05%	103.93%
N	65.29	2.44	3.88%	4.13%	-1.89%	15.62%	50.89%	31.66%	42.18%	69.85%
RIO	48.63	1.12	2.36%	1.93%	-9.61%	-5.61%	13.09%	0.00%	9.06%	63.74%
BHP	44.07	0.98	2.27%	1.92%	-7.78%	-3.27%	25.91%	20.25%	34.77%	77.99%
AA	32.30	0.64	2.02%	1.00%	-7.21%	-4.38%	8.03%	7.10%	18.19%	18.14%
GGB	14.59	1.12	8.31%	0.55%	-12.53%	-15.66%	-16.20%	-36.37%	-0.75%	57.39%
ACH	82.20	1.53	1.90%	-1.67%	-12.27%	-14.60%	3.53%	-24.57%	19.65%	64.27%
PKX	65.59	0.34	0.52%	-5.30%	-8.69%	-6.92%	30.53%	9.68%	31.36%	47.03%

Prices of the metals and goldminers had fallen too far too fast. So a bounce here was justified. RTP , PD and N (base metals) up +7.5 pct, +6.3 pct and +4.1 pct respectively, and NUE (steel) up +7.1 pct, were solid. So were the goldminers.

Unfortunately the chemicals got hurt, with DD down -0.6 pct, or else the XLB would have moved up higher.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The ETF for the Industrials and Transport sector, aka capital goods producers, (XLI) was up +0.29 pct W/W to close at 34.14 (a wooden dime), #8 out of 10 ETF performer again this week.

This was really a mixed bag, with the CAT jumping +2.3 pct, but HON (-2.0 pct) and BA (-1.3 pct) were down.

Here's the XLI Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CBE	89.97	-0.02	-0.02%	2.62%	-1.69%	-1.62%	21.78%	7.03%	22.94%	30.05%
CAT	74.42	0.46	0.62%	2.25%	-4.36%	-1.74%	28.75%	2.37%	28.42%	57.60%
TYC	27.46	0.24	0.88%	1.03%	0.66%	4.21%	-7.35%	6.56%	-4.79%	-5.96%
GE	34.33	-0.09	-0.26%	0.50%	0.15%	-0.75%	-2.94%	3.59%	-5.17%	-7.07%
UTX	62.60	0.21	0.34%	-0.16%	-3.62%	-0.33%	10.74%	6.30%	15.26%	16.34%
ERJ	34.51	1.38	4.17%	-0.26%	-4.54%	-11.13%	-12.10%	-13.29%	-9.18%	14.84%
MMM	83.87	0.61	0.73%	-0.52%	-3.12%	-1.83%	6.02%	13.48%	7.09%	8.95%
BA	83.50	0.51	0.61%	-1.31%	-4.03%	0.06%	18.71%	12.37%	20.91%	32.56%
HON	41.09	0.55	1.36%	-1.98%	-4.24%	-3.32%	9.69%	-0.94%	11.29%	12.11%

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was down -0.03 pct W/W to close Friday at 33.67, which is a loss of a wooden penny.

SBUX was down -2.5 pct, but I think I'll move it and THI to the consumer staples sector on account of the fact that coffee shops have become necessities of life, apparently.

Here's the XLY Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EBAY	34.20	0.32	0.94%	15.15%	8.61%	-0.61%	-23.08%	-17.57%	-26.78%	-9.60%
WHR	90.98	2.62	2.97%	5.84%	2.48%	1.37%	10.05%	0.38%	9.95%	31.02%
NKE	81.01	1.36	1.71%	2.94%	-0.60%	-1.01%	-5.75%	-7.10%	-8.16%	-1.13%
DIS	30.51	0.36	1.19%	1.19%	2.04%	9.12%	25.04%	9.04%	21.80%	9.75%
TM	110.21	1.24	1.14%	0.27%	-1.33%	-5.91%	3.14%	1.39%	12.14%	52.24%
BC	36.58	0.17	0.47%	0.11%	-5.23%	-6.73%	-10.39%	-8.50%	-7.93%	-14.89%
CCL	40.10	-0.01	-0.02%	-1.50%	-14.11%	-14.35%	-26.52%	-22.63%	-25.96%	-24.54%
SBUX	35.43	-0.01	-0.03%	-2.48%	-0.62%	-4.94%	14.77%	-1.36%	11.77%	28.42%
JCP	61.21	0.19	0.31%	-3.45%	-5.20%	-6.49%	8.43%	5.63%	13.14%	18.56%

EBAY did a neat deal with Yahoo! So it jumped +15.2 pct W/W, which makes me happy because I like the company (and Yahoo too).

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was up +1.99 pct W/W to close Friday at 24.09, which put it into second top spot in the Cara ETF list.

But you it would be hot this week because I told you that in the last WIR: "XLP dropped a wooden nickel. That puts XLP in the #1 performer of the week spot (since 10 of 10 had been down), which is to be expected when there is a financial war going on and traders go defensive. This week, XLP could also be Performer of the Weak."

I missed; XLP was #2, nudged out by XLE by a wooden penny. Can you believe that happened after I planted the seed? Missed by a penny!

Anyway, it is a battle of the weak and brittle, which means to say that all these ETF's are on borrowed time and you need to keep your finger on the sell switch " unless of course Helio Ben reverses those blades and sucks up all money the Treasury is printing.

Here's the XLP Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WMT	49.65	0.20	0.40%	4.92%	6.68%	10.26%	7.40%	9.24%	-1.66%	4.95%
PEP	60.66	0.10	0.17%	3.52%	3.44%	4.16%	1.51%	1.88%	1.27%	6.40%
DEO	67.00	0.68	1.03%	2.27%	-1.34%	1.13%	12.49%	9.07%	14.59%	14.47%
MO	72.47	0.35	0.49%	2.07%	2.94%	-0.94%	-3.35%	0.03%	-1.36%	7.08%
KO	44.49	0.12	0.27%	1.92%	3.03%	6.03%	8.78%	5.35%	3.95%	-0.89%
PG	55.13	-0.13	-0.24%	1.81%	0.22%	-5.29%	-6.21%	-10.36%	-3.75%	-1.22%
WFMI	66.85	-1.25	-1.84%	1.35%	-3.06%	8.91%	-13.29%	4.90%	-9.63%	12.24%
WAG	41.30	0.00	0.00%	0.24%	3.33%	-1.50%	-9.01%	-9.11%	-13.78%	-10.14%
ABV	42.70	0.60	1.43%	-0.79%	-6.79%	-7.78%	10.79%	0.95%	10.45%	42.81%
BUD	45.76	-1.05	-2.24%	-0.80%	-0.56%	2.65%	4.79%	9.42%	4.31%	-4.01%

Diageo (NYSE: DEO) was back on track, up +2.3 pct W/W. See; I told you that when the world stops drinking Guinness, something's amiss.

Now the world is back to normal and we can drink ourselves under the table.

And during a rally, when traders are selling the semiconductors and putting their money into PG (up +1.8 pct W/W), KO (up +1.9 pct), MO (up +2.1 pct), PEP (up +3.5 pct) and WMT (up +4.9 pct), you have to know that the equities are not rallying; they are drawing the wagons together to fend off the insurgents.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The healthcare ETF (IYH) was up +1.06 pct W/W to close at 60.82. That makes it #4 best performer, this week, which is not as good as last week (#2), but not bad.

These are tough times, so we need to be drugged up. But with a little rally going on since mid-week, many of us decided we didn't need to check into a UNH or AET facility, because those stocks were down -2.9 pct and -4.6 pct respectively.

Here's the IYH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BMY	24.95	0.34	1.38%	3.23%	2.72%	-1.69%	7.36%	8.62%	12.08%	-2.54%
DNA	81.58	1.58	1.98%	1.94%	3.55%	2.35%	-13.21%	-3.97%	-16.11%	3.59%
AMGN	68.81	0.65	0.95%	1.65%	1.03%	1.64%	-14.37%	-7.95%	-16.89%	9.74%
JNJ	60.69	0.24	0.40%	1.32%	3.16%	3.55%	-1.53%	5.07%	-2.35%	-9.98%
PFE	24.00	0.15	0.63%	0.76%	-2.04%	-5.25%	0.93%	-8.99%	10.75%	-16.96%
NVS	56.06	-0.43	-0.76%	0.23%	-2.13%	-2.52%	4.84%	3.28%	5.24%	12.93%
BMET	34.95	-0.01	-0.03%	-0.29%	-4.46%	-6.00%	-5.23%	-4.56%	-4.51%	-8.75%
GSK	55.67	0.00	0.00%	-1.36%	-2.33%	-2.13%	9.24%	8.94%	12.40%	12.69%
UNH	43.12	0.70	1.65%	-2.93%	-5.93%	-13.31%	-30.15%	-26.78%	-28.32%	-11.22%
AET	38.41	0.04	0.10%	-4.57%	-3.03%	-0.23%	-18.33%	-26.38%	-19.31%	-1.89%

Big Pharma recovered a bit this week. Pfizer (PFE), which was up +0.8 pct, must have sold some Viagra. Bristol Myers (BMY) was up +3.2 pct, and DNA and AMGN were up almost +2.0 pct. Aetna, a Cara 100, got smashed -4.6 pct W/W.

Cara 100: Aetna Inc. (AET) (AET) Financials

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financial sector ETF (XLF) was up +1.04 pct W/W to 32.94, which doesn't make up for the loss two weeks ago. As I said a week earlier, "The bonds were up, so these stocks ought to have been stronger."

Does anyone other than Elaine Garzarelli really believe that the Dow is going to 12,000?

Sorry Elaine, but I read that BusinessWeek article. Hmmm. Maybe we could do a ‘she said, he said' type of deal?

Believe me, I would only do that with someone I really respect (oh, I forgot about Cramer), and I do respect the Garz (really). In fact I'm committed to dinner the next trip I make to the Good Apple.

I just don't accept the Garz's capex story, and I do think that the economic expansion is going to slow in the U.S., and that traders are tired of taking so much risk for so little reward " and tired of watching the Viagra king Hank McKinnell humping his annual compensation package to close to $100 million, and homer d'poe Bob Nardelli cleaning up (his package) -- who knows to how much because even the most expert accountants in America can't figure it out.

Tired is the operative word. A bull can only run so long, and so hard, before even Merrill Lynch has to take a rest, as it did after recently hitting a Monthly data RSI of 90 for the first time in memory, and then collapsing from 81 to 69 faster than I could say, "where's the beef?"

Sure there was a little viagra evident this week, but this is Spring, boats are on the lake, love is in the air;

Where I see problems ahead is in the Financials. This week MER even bounced to 73 -" on its way to 60 (or should I say that?)

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MER Daily data chart

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MER Monthly data chart

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Here's the XLF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GS	152.94	5.62	3.81%	2.36%	-2.03%	-4.59%	18.68%	6.09%	14.03%	58.32%
MER	72.79	1.31	1.83%	2.00%	0.07%	-4.55%	6.32%	-5.17%	6.20%	33.56%
C	49.57	0.50	1.02%	1.58%	1.18%	-0.76%	0.57%	5.81%	0.10%	4.62%
JPM	43.23	0.38	0.89%	1.12%	-2.46%	-4.74%	7.56%	3.77%	11.25%	20.28%
MS	60.57	0.80	1.34%	1.05%	-4.30%	-5.80%	3.63%	-0.43%	0.00%	0.00%
DB	116.57	0.44	0.38%	0.13%	-5.11%	-4.54%	17.20%	3.65%	18.23%	49.74%
LEH	67.06	1.63	2.49%	-0.62%	-3.57%	-11.26%	3.26%	-9.68%	0.96%	46.96%
UBS	114.18	1.18	1.04%	-0.63%	-5.25%	-2.28%	15.67%	5.04%	21.18%	45.84%
HBC	87.99	0.49	0.56%	-1.00%	-1.99%	1.51%	7.73%	2.92%	8.71%	10.68%