A week ago in the midst of a crashing commodities market, and knowing my people would be in state of shock and awe, I had to depart for dental surgery that I knew would be right at the upper limit of my own pain threshold.

So it wasn't a matter of choose your poison, I was forced to take both. But, rather than wimp out, I walked right into that tunnel not knowing if the light ahead was an oncoming train and told you to buy the commodity stocks.

After my return, and more than one dose of Tylenol 2's, I told you I had bought ECA and SU in the energy sector 10, and GG and GLG, two goldminers, in the basic materials sector 15.

I knew that my words would serve to stun some readers " but that was exactly my point. I was afraid that an emotional state called 'in extremis' would set in and that the readers who were ready to act would be mostly hung up in analysis paralyis. So I said that sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and do it.

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Friday May 19 9:35am blog: "Now I'm saying it's time to buy a little gold, and shares of the junior goldminers and prospectors. You buy a little, not shoot the bolt. You buy into weakness. You watch and wait for more weakness, which if it comes, you buy a little more."

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Week In Review May 20: "With the severe shake-out in the commodities market that had taken down many of the oils by more than 10 pct over the previous two weeks, I decided that Friday morning just before my mad rush to the dental office that I would step into stocks like SU and ECA (oils) and GG and GLG (golds), for a trade.

Don't ask me to explain this any more than I had my mind mostly on an upcoming root canal. And I would have written this up except that on my way to the dentist my car dropped a cylinder (I'm told) on the highway, and the triple freezing and stop over at the garage on my way home (to pick up a temp car) took long enough for the freezing to wear off and I headed straight to bed. Except for a two hour break, I slept for 18 hours.

Now I can see that I was just an hour or two early on Friday morning and that the corrective (bullish) wave has begun. I will likely be out of those positions soon (however) because I expect the market to become rather like a slinky toy here, and the drops could be large ones like the past seven sessions."

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How did it work out? Before I list the results to date, let me say that I think you know me well enough by now to trust that I would admit failure if it was there, and that I'd arrogantly bow in the mirror if I was right in my market call.

Sore back this week? You bet.

I really should move that wall mirror out of my office! It does lead to personal issues.

From the close a week ago, here are the results:
ECA +6.04 pct
SU +4.65 pct
GG +2.22 pct
GLG +11.87 pct
Average gain over 5 sessions: +6.20 pct!

From the open, a week ago Friday, which was the time of my action recommendation:
ECA +10.44 pct
SU +7.16 pct
GG +3.94 pct
GLG +17.30 pct
Average gain over 6 sessions: +9.71 pct!!

The majority of Funds in the market have not done as well in the past 52 weeks, nevertheless one week!

How can I say that? Well, I speak only the truth. You know that about 75-80 pct of Funds do not beat the market.

And how well has the U.S. market done in the past 52-weeks? Well, the S&P 500 is up +6.98 pct and Nasdaq up +3.40 pct. This week, the S&P 500 was up +1.01 pct and Nasdaq up +0.36 pct.

The issue here is, did Bill Cara just take another lucky random walk on the way to the dentist, or do his trading methods really work?

I have no axe to grind. This blog is free because you have an opportunity to learn how to trade without getting diddled by people who don't know what they are doing, or care about the implications.

So without further ado, here is the WIR.

Global Market Summary

International Equities: With oil prices recovering (for now at least), the equity markets in Canada and Russia also recovered. But it was still a tough week for markets in India, China and Japan, which are undergoing a purging of speculative excesses.

U.S. Equities : Eight of 10 ETF's and 22 of the Dow 30 were up. Following the recovery day a week ago Friday, the markets bounced higher this week following a successful bond auction on Wed. These rising markets will run into problems the day that bonds have a significant sell-off, so don't fall asleep.

Dow 30 : 22 up -- 8 down. That's a big turnaround. Can it last through the econ news this week? We'll have to see. But remember the slinky toy. Sooner or later, equities will follow bonds until capital market risks are in balance with potential rewards. With a slowing economy, slowing earnings growth, rising inflation, etc, there is an ebb tide underway.

U.S. Sector ETFs: 8 up: 2 down (XLE the best @ +2.0 pct, SMH way down -2.8 pct)
First segment: most influenced by commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #1 (+2.0 pct); oil price recovery
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #6 (+1.0 pct); metals up, but chemicals down
20: Industrials (XLI): #8 (+0.3 pct); a real mixed bag this week
Second segment: most influenced by consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #9 (-0.03 pct); EBAY stands alone
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #2 (+2.0 pct); WMT up +4.9 pct
35: Healthcare (IYH): #4 (+1.1 pct); drugs were up, but facilities down
Third segment: most influenced by interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #5 (+1.0 pct); GS & MER up, but foreign banks down
45: Tech (SMH chips): #10 (-2.8 pct); 15 weak days in a row!!
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): #7 (+0.6 pct); rate relief again this week
55: Utilities (XLU): #3 (+1.7 pct); rate relief again here too

Bonds: My advice of a week ago: "But after a pause here for a week or so, rates will lift again because inflation is still a problem, and budget deficits must be financed, and the foreign carry trade is being (or will be) unwound as Japan's bank rate will sooner or later rise to combat (domestic) real estate speculation." Rates didn't go higher, which was my call. But they may soon do that.

Commodities: $CRB bounced off the 50-day Moving Average and rallied + 2.7 pct W/W. They had been down -6.4 pct a week ago as metals and oil prices got smashed. They are basing for a summer rally.

Oil & Gas: The $WTIC futures rallied +3.3 pct W/W, which served to rally the oil sector (XLE up +2.0 pct) as well as the Russian and Canadian equity markets. But traders are watching sales and inventory data to catch first wind of an economic slowdown. Ultimately, I think that's going to happen and we'll see oil back to the mid-40's, say a year from now.

Gold: $GOLD gained +0.6 pct on Friday, which meant the loss on the week was only -0.8 pct. This is a tough call, but I think the odds are in favor of gold sidetracking here. A cycle low of $637.50 was hit Wed, and the 50d MA is 627.61 (and rising), so there is a measure of support here. But with the Indian (and Middle East) equity speculators getting whacked, I can't see them chasing gold right here ($653.80).

Goldminers: The U.S. goldminers index did rally +1.82 pct W/W to close Friday at 142.59, a similar move to the Cdn goldminers. While I think the recent low of 133.13 is the cycle low for $XAU, this index is susceptible to being tested further on the downside. I may hang in for a week or two (except GLG and GG/G, which will now go to USGL), but I don't expect the summer rally to start yet.

Forex: Two weeks ago with $USD down to 83.88, I wrote: "The Daily data chart looks spectacular. The nuk-u-lar meltdown started the morning of April 17... The question now is, can the Fed stop the run on the bank?" Then a week ago, I wrote: "The implication of course was the Fed was going to try. This week $USD was up +1.2 pct, and the brief rally may continue." This week, $USD was up again by +0.4 pct W/W, but only after a rally on Friday (+0.6 pct). Can it beat the short-term cycle high of 85.47, and then crossover the 50d MA (87.30)? I doubt that. There's something about a massacre in Iraq that bothers me regarding the $USD.

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Sector ETF:

After 10 for 10 ETFs were down the previous two weeks, remember my words of the last WIR: "it looks like a bit of a panic. But the Hourly data charts show that it's probably a little too early to panic." That was true (what else?); this week, 8 out of 10 sectors were up.

A week ago I was trying to explain the reversal that was yet to happen (but did), and then went on to question how long this week's rally could last. Are you getting the picture? Like I'm always a step or two ahead.

So last week, in referring to the rally that didn't happen until this week, I wrote:

"Is this (relatively strong consumer sector) really a sustainable trend or just a temporary port in a storm? You know, with all the jobless claims, and a major Fed report saying that the economy is slowing, and the wealth effect from a rising real estate market no longer happening, and; and; and; I just can't buy the argument that Mom & Pop are going to send their kids to more movies, buy more electronic games and music, etc. Keeping them safe at home watching American Idol (and not spending $$$)? Now that I can see; but even that's over this coming week. And the financials and techs " you know, the sectors that are supposed to lead every U.S. equity market rally " are going nowhere. They came in at #6 and #7 this week, nudged out by the three USD and Commodity price sensitive sectors that were in total disarray, with the latter caused more by profit-taking than by any long-term common sense. So where other than the farm and supermarket is the beef? No, even a likely rally that's due this week is probably cat meat, and disposed of fairly quickly.

And didn't you just laugh this week when I rattled off the headlines in the WIR from a week ago: "So if Earnings Season couldn't drive this market through all-time record highs, what is it going to be? The end of inflation, lower interest rates, next quarter's earnings, the end of war and civil strife in the world, the ‘Snow'man's replacement, Google Finance, the capitulation of OPEC, the return of Al Gore? I dunno, but I can tell you that I don't see anything on the horizon, including the U.S. cavalry, that is going to save the day."

So today on CNN I'm watching video of a chauffeured Al Gore using his wireless Internet (you remember, the one he invented?) with the voice-over planting more seeds about his return to presidential politics. And then there was talk of Don Evans replacement of John Snow. And also video of a 28-person massacre by U.S. marines (which just may be the final straw?), and an EBAY-YHOO deal to thwart the google monster, and on and on.

But I explained a week ago how I see the equity market scenario playing out.

"What I do see coming for the next couple months is a series of lower highs and lower lows like a slinky toy in action, and I see that capital is trying to find a port in the storm. And in the most recent two weeks that port was nowhere near India (down "16.69 pct) or Russia (down "19.95 pct). "

For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds. The table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Table 1: Cara ETF List

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLE	55.10	0.18	0.33%	2.00%	-2.89%	-3.57%	4.55%	2.74%	8.04%	33.38%
XLP	24.09	0.00	0.00%	1.99%	1.77%	1.09%	2.77%	1.73%	1.65%	2.77%
XLU	31.63	0.34	1.09%	1.74%	1.12%	0.99%	-1.16%	-2.77%	-0.38%	5.75%
IYH	60.82	0.41	0.68%	1.06%	0.65%	-1.60%	-4.42%	-6.29%	-2.59%	-1.70%
XLF	32.94	0.27	0.83%	1.04%	-0.78%	-3.00%	2.30%	0.15%	1.51%	12.50%
XLB	32.56	0.54	1.69%	0.96%	-3.67%	-2.81%	5.30%	2.65%	9.78%	16.58%
IYZ	25.00	0.16	0.64%	0.60%	-0.40%	-2.19%	8.84%	-0.16%	3.99%	8.27%
XLI	34.14	0.19	0.56%	0.29%	-2.26%	-1.13%	7.94%	4.53%	8.00%	12.49%
XLY	33.67	0.11	0.33%	-0.03%	-1.26%	-1.23%	2.03%	0.66%	-0.03%	1.75%
SMH	34.20	0.20	0.59%	-2.79%	-4.76%	-9.16%	-9.81%	-7.44%	-8.70%	-1.53%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into your browser and clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

This week, XLE was up +2.00 pct to 55.10, and Crude Oil ($WTIC) was up +3.3 pct. That makes XLE the best performer this week of my 10 ETF's. For several weeks, it was running #9 or 10.

You know it's May. We're not even into humid weather yet and Wall Street is pushing photo's of hurricanes and notices of cruise ship travel super deals at us, just so we don't miss the point that fear can drive oil prices higher.

What; are we children? Is this like starting the Christmas shopping season the day after Thanksgiving?

When does the sell-side get it? We watch and trade prices. We also read quality research on the oils from Peters and TD Newcrest.
Download TD Newcrest May 26 report on Oil&Gas
Download Peters May 23 report on Oil&Gas
Download Peters May 25 Overview of Oilfield Services
Download Peters May 18 data of Oilfield Services

Here's the XLE Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
IMO	112.89	3.29	3.00%	9.80%	7.20%	3.85%	8.55%	16.83%	16.83%	62.24%
ECA	48.77	0.64	1.33%	6.04%	-2.98%	-2.56%	4.43%	16.01%	5.61%	41.40%
SU	80.62	0.31	0.39%	4.65%	-3.81%	-5.97%	23.03%	4.88%	37.98%	110.77%
STO	29.63	0.42	1.44%	4.63%	-4.51%	-9.61%	22.79%	13.79%	30.41%	65.53%
CVX	59.83	0.34	0.57%	2.33%	-2.53%	-1.95%	1.27%	3.78%	2.20%	11.37%
XOM	61.58	0.06	0.10%	1.87%	-1.06%	-2.38%	5.32%	1.92%	2.45%	9.53%
PBR	90.65	4.65	5.41%	1.00%	-9.93%	-8.28%	21.32%	-0.98%	33.96%	92.95%
CEO	78.24	0.65	0.84%	0.33%	-2.18%	-5.37%	13.08%	-9.13%	15.57%	47.21%
TOT	65.84	0.22	0.34%	-50.57%	-53.52%	-52.30%	-49.38%	-48.43%	-48.65%	-41.28%

Yes, the Cdn oilers (IMO, ECA and SU) did ok (hooray!) and Big Oil (XOM and CVX) did well enough at +2 pct to move the XLE that far.

That was a nice move from Wed afternoon, but XLE is now overbought and not going much higher without a higher $WTIC. For that we'll have to see the inventory data on Thursday, I think it is.

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials sector ETF (XLB) was up +0.96 pct W/W to close at 32.56, which was good for just #6 out of 10 ETF best performer on the week.

Here's the XLB Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
RTP	227.90	6.88	3.11%	7.49%	-4.26%	2.33%	20.70%	16.51%	38.05%	90.73%
NUE	112.36	3.44	3.16%	7.06%	0.77%	3.25%	62.00%	29.60%	70.63%	112.68%
PD	88.26	2.08	2.41%	6.26%	-7.48%	2.40%	18.20%	20.85%	31.05%	103.93%
N	65.29	2.44	3.88%	4.13%	-1.89%	15.62%	50.89%	31.66%	42.18%	69.85%
RIO	48.63	1.12	2.36%	1.93%	-9.61%	-5.61%	13.09%	0.00%	9.06%	63.74%
BHP	44.07	0.98	2.27%	1.92%	-7.78%	-3.27%	25.91%	20.25%	34.77%	77.99%
AA	32.30	0.64	2.02%	1.00%	-7.21%	-4.38%	8.03%	7.10%	18.19%	18.14%
GGB	14.59	1.12	8.31%	0.55%	-12.53%	-15.66%	-16.20%	-36.37%	-0.75%	57.39%
ACH	82.20	1.53	1.90%	-1.67%	-12.27%	-14.60%	3.53%	-24.57%	19.65%	64.27%
PKX	65.59	0.34	0.52%	-5.30%	-8.69%	-6.92%	30.53%	9.68%	31.36%	47.03%

Prices of the metals and goldminers had fallen too far too fast. So a bounce here was justified. RTP , PD and N (base metals) up +7.5 pct, +6.3 pct and +4.1 pct respectively, and NUE (steel) up +7.1 pct, were solid. So were the goldminers.

Unfortunately the chemicals got hurt, with DD down -0.6 pct, or else the XLB would have moved up higher.

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The ETF for the Industrials and Transport sector, aka capital goods producers, (XLI) was up +0.29 pct W/W to close at 34.14 (a wooden dime), #8 out of 10 ETF performer again this week.

This was really a mixed bag, with the CAT jumping +2.3 pct, but HON (-2.0 pct) and BA (-1.3 pct) were down.

Here's the XLI Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
CBE	89.97	-0.02	-0.02%	2.62%	-1.69%	-1.62%	21.78%	7.03%	22.94%	30.05%
CAT	74.42	0.46	0.62%	2.25%	-4.36%	-1.74%	28.75%	2.37%	28.42%	57.60%
TYC	27.46	0.24	0.88%	1.03%	0.66%	4.21%	-7.35%	6.56%	-4.79%	-5.96%
GE	34.33	-0.09	-0.26%	0.50%	0.15%	-0.75%	-2.94%	3.59%	-5.17%	-7.07%
UTX	62.60	0.21	0.34%	-0.16%	-3.62%	-0.33%	10.74%	6.30%	15.26%	16.34%
ERJ	34.51	1.38	4.17%	-0.26%	-4.54%	-11.13%	-12.10%	-13.29%	-9.18%	14.84%
MMM	83.87	0.61	0.73%	-0.52%	-3.12%	-1.83%	6.02%	13.48%	7.09%	8.95%
BA	83.50	0.51	0.61%	-1.31%	-4.03%	0.06%	18.71%	12.37%	20.91%	32.56%
HON	41.09	0.55	1.36%	-1.98%	-4.24%	-3.32%	9.69%	-0.94%	11.29%	12.11%

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was down -0.03 pct W/W to close Friday at 33.67, which is a loss of a wooden penny.

SBUX was down -2.5 pct, but I think I'll move it and THI to the consumer staples sector on account of the fact that coffee shops have become necessities of life, apparently.

Here's the XLY Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
EBAY	34.20	0.32	0.94%	15.15%	8.61%	-0.61%	-23.08%	-17.57%	-26.78%	-9.60%
WHR	90.98	2.62	2.97%	5.84%	2.48%	1.37%	10.05%	0.38%	9.95%	31.02%
NKE	81.01	1.36	1.71%	2.94%	-0.60%	-1.01%	-5.75%	-7.10%	-8.16%	-1.13%
DIS	30.51	0.36	1.19%	1.19%	2.04%	9.12%	25.04%	9.04%	21.80%	9.75%
TM	110.21	1.24	1.14%	0.27%	-1.33%	-5.91%	3.14%	1.39%	12.14%	52.24%
BC	36.58	0.17	0.47%	0.11%	-5.23%	-6.73%	-10.39%	-8.50%	-7.93%	-14.89%
CCL	40.10	-0.01	-0.02%	-1.50%	-14.11%	-14.35%	-26.52%	-22.63%	-25.96%	-24.54%
SBUX	35.43	-0.01	-0.03%	-2.48%	-0.62%	-4.94%	14.77%	-1.36%	11.77%	28.42%
JCP	61.21	0.19	0.31%	-3.45%	-5.20%	-6.49%	8.43%	5.63%	13.14%	18.56%

EBAY did a neat deal with Yahoo! So it jumped +15.2 pct W/W, which makes me happy because I like the company (and Yahoo too).

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was up +1.99 pct W/W to close Friday at 24.09, which put it into second top spot in the Cara ETF list.

But you it would be hot this week because I told you that in the last WIR: "XLP dropped a wooden nickel. That puts XLP in the #1 performer of the week spot (since 10 of 10 had been down), which is to be expected when there is a financial war going on and traders go defensive. This week, XLP could also be Performer of the Weak."

I missed; XLP was #2, nudged out by XLE by a wooden penny. Can you believe that happened after I planted the seed? Missed by a penny!

Anyway, it is a battle of the weak and brittle, which means to say that all these ETF's are on borrowed time and you need to keep your finger on the sell switch " unless of course Helio Ben reverses those blades and sucks up all money the Treasury is printing.

Here's the XLP Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
WMT	49.65	0.20	0.40%	4.92%	6.68%	10.26%	7.40%	9.24%	-1.66%	4.95%
PEP	60.66	0.10	0.17%	3.52%	3.44%	4.16%	1.51%	1.88%	1.27%	6.40%
DEO	67.00	0.68	1.03%	2.27%	-1.34%	1.13%	12.49%	9.07%	14.59%	14.47%
MO	72.47	0.35	0.49%	2.07%	2.94%	-0.94%	-3.35%	0.03%	-1.36%	7.08%
KO	44.49	0.12	0.27%	1.92%	3.03%	6.03%	8.78%	5.35%	3.95%	-0.89%
PG	55.13	-0.13	-0.24%	1.81%	0.22%	-5.29%	-6.21%	-10.36%	-3.75%	-1.22%
WFMI	66.85	-1.25	-1.84%	1.35%	-3.06%	8.91%	-13.29%	4.90%	-9.63%	12.24%
WAG	41.30	0.00	0.00%	0.24%	3.33%	-1.50%	-9.01%	-9.11%	-13.78%	-10.14%
ABV	42.70	0.60	1.43%	-0.79%	-6.79%	-7.78%	10.79%	0.95%	10.45%	42.81%
BUD	45.76	-1.05	-2.24%	-0.80%	-0.56%	2.65%	4.79%	9.42%	4.31%	-4.01%

Diageo (NYSE: DEO) was back on track, up +2.3 pct W/W. See; I told you that when the world stops drinking Guinness, something's amiss.

Now the world is back to normal and we can drink ourselves under the table.

And during a rally, when traders are selling the semiconductors and putting their money into PG (up +1.8 pct W/W), KO (up +1.9 pct), MO (up +2.1 pct), PEP (up +3.5 pct) and WMT (up +4.9 pct), you have to know that the equities are not rallying; they are drawing the wagons together to fend off the insurgents.

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The healthcare ETF (IYH) was up +1.06 pct W/W to close at 60.82. That makes it #4 best performer, this week, which is not as good as last week (#2), but not bad.

These are tough times, so we need to be drugged up. But with a little rally going on since mid-week, many of us decided we didn't need to check into a UNH or AET facility, because those stocks were down -2.9 pct and -4.6 pct respectively.

Here's the IYH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BMY	24.95	0.34	1.38%	3.23%	2.72%	-1.69%	7.36%	8.62%	12.08%	-2.54%
DNA	81.58	1.58	1.98%	1.94%	3.55%	2.35%	-13.21%	-3.97%	-16.11%	3.59%
AMGN	68.81	0.65	0.95%	1.65%	1.03%	1.64%	-14.37%	-7.95%	-16.89%	9.74%
JNJ	60.69	0.24	0.40%	1.32%	3.16%	3.55%	-1.53%	5.07%	-2.35%	-9.98%
PFE	24.00	0.15	0.63%	0.76%	-2.04%	-5.25%	0.93%	-8.99%	10.75%	-16.96%
NVS	56.06	-0.43	-0.76%	0.23%	-2.13%	-2.52%	4.84%	3.28%	5.24%	12.93%
BMET	34.95	-0.01	-0.03%	-0.29%	-4.46%	-6.00%	-5.23%	-4.56%	-4.51%	-8.75%
GSK	55.67	0.00	0.00%	-1.36%	-2.33%	-2.13%	9.24%	8.94%	12.40%	12.69%
UNH	43.12	0.70	1.65%	-2.93%	-5.93%	-13.31%	-30.15%	-26.78%	-28.32%	-11.22%
AET	38.41	0.04	0.10%	-4.57%	-3.03%	-0.23%	-18.33%	-26.38%	-19.31%	-1.89%

Big Pharma recovered a bit this week. Pfizer (PFE), which was up +0.8 pct, must have sold some Viagra. Bristol Myers (BMY) was up +3.2 pct, and DNA and AMGN were up almost +2.0 pct. Aetna, a Cara 100, got smashed -4.6 pct W/W.

Cara 100: Aetna Inc. (AET) (AET) Financials

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financial sector ETF (XLF) was up +1.04 pct W/W to 32.94, which doesn't make up for the loss two weeks ago. As I said a week earlier, "The bonds were up, so these stocks ought to have been stronger."

Does anyone other than Elaine Garzarelli really believe that the Dow is going to 12,000?

Sorry Elaine, but I read that BusinessWeek article. Hmmm. Maybe we could do a ‘she said, he said' type of deal?

Believe me, I would only do that with someone I really respect (oh, I forgot about Cramer), and I do respect the Garz (really). In fact I'm committed to dinner the next trip I make to the Good Apple.

I just don't accept the Garz's capex story, and I do think that the economic expansion is going to slow in the U.S., and that traders are tired of taking so much risk for so little reward " and tired of watching the Viagra king Hank McKinnell humping his annual compensation package to close to $100 million, and homer d'poe Bob Nardelli cleaning up (his package) -- who knows to how much because even the most expert accountants in America can't figure it out.

Tired is the operative word. A bull can only run so long, and so hard, before even Merrill Lynch has to take a rest, as it did after recently hitting a Monthly data RSI of 90 for the first time in memory, and then collapsing from 81 to 69 faster than I could say, "where's the beef?"

Sure there was a little viagra evident this week, but this is Spring, boats are on the lake, love is in the air;

Where I see problems ahead is in the Financials. This week MER even bounced to 73 -" on its way to 60 (or should I say that?)

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MER Daily data chart

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MER Monthly data chart

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Here's the XLF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GS	152.94	5.62	3.81%	2.36%	-2.03%	-4.59%	18.68%	6.09%	14.03%	58.32%
MER	72.79	1.31	1.83%	2.00%	0.07%	-4.55%	6.32%	-5.17%	6.20%	33.56%
C	49.57	0.50	1.02%	1.58%	1.18%	-0.76%	0.57%	5.81%	0.10%	4.62%
JPM	43.23	0.38	0.89%	1.12%	-2.46%	-4.74%	7.56%	3.77%	11.25%	20.28%
MS	60.57	0.80	1.34%	1.05%	-4.30%	-5.80%	3.63%	-0.43%	0.00%	0.00%
DB	116.57	0.44	0.38%	0.13%	-5.11%	-4.54%	17.20%	3.65%	18.23%	49.74%
LEH	67.06	1.63	2.49%	-0.62%	-3.57%	-11.26%	3.26%	-9.68%	0.96%	46.96%
UBS	114.18	1.18	1.04%	-0.63%	-5.25%	-2.28%	15.67%	5.04%	21.18%	45.84%
HBC	87.99	0.49	0.56%	-1.00%	-1.99%	1.51%	7.73%	2.92%	8.71%	10.68%
CSR	57.15	-0.23	-0.40%	-2.47%	-8.49%	-5.99%	7.12%	2.18%	15.45%	43.05%

There is quite a split here. GS (+2.4 pct), MER (+2.0 pct), and C (+1.6 pct) are the NYC-DC-Riyadh favorites, obviously. And the European banks, CSR (-2.5 pct), UBS (-0.6 pct) and HBC (-1.0 pct) are not.

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

Two weeks ago, the semi-conductor ETF (SMH) was down -5.65 pct; then it was down -2.03 pct. This week SMH dropped a further -2.79 pct, closing Friday at 34.20.

The same Talking Heads that tell you that U.S. equity market rallies are started with the chips have started telling you the rallies now start with software: Big Three -- MSFT (+5.14 pct), ORCL (+2.6 pct) and SAP (+1.5 pct) are the new "hot" story.

What a joke. Where are the yachts?

Here's the SMH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

Table 9: Senior technology equities

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
ORCL	14.05	-0.02	-0.14%	2.55%	0.50%	-3.70%	11.51%	12.76%	11.24%	8.83%
SAP	53.70	-0.01	-0.02%	1.53%	0.15%	-1.70%	16.87%	3.39%	23.08%	28.28%
INTC	18.22	0.17	0.94%	-0.76%	-4.31%	-8.81%	-28.74%	-10.51%	-32.04%	-33.43%
ADSK	37.14	0.66	1.81%	-0.93%	-5.50%	-11.66%	-13.12%	-0.93%	-9.08%	-2.24%
QCOM	46.03	-0.03	-0.07%	-2.21%	-6.04%	-10.34%	4.61%	-2.46%	-0.32%	22.98%
CSCO	20.31	-0.21	-1.02%	-2.68%	-0.15%	-3.05%	16.39%	2.32%	15.73%	2.06%
INFY	71.50	-0.87	-1.20%	-3.20%	-7.24%	-9.09%	-11.12%	1.91%	-3.61%	-0.89%
ADBE	28.98	-0.16	-0.55%	-4.39%	-9.21%	-26.07%	-24.77%	-24.41%	-14.54%	-12.45%
SNDK	59.64	0.80	1.36%	-4.56%	-2.61%	-6.56%	-11.91%	5.86%	18.76%	126.68%
CTSH	60.01	-1.29	-2.10%	-6.53%	-8.47%	-5.66%	18.39%	4.51%	21.50%	26.60%

SanDisk (SNDK) had a bad week (-4.6 pct) and so far a bad YTD (-11.9 pct).

And how about that Inteller? INTC was down again (-0.76 pct), on what was a pretty good week for the Dow 30.

On extreme weakness, I'll keep nibbling away at INTC, or at least writing puts.

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The Telco sector ETF (IYZ) was up +0.60 pct W/W to 25.00.

Bond yields helped again; but there won't be too many weeks like this. As one reader commented, it's the fibre making and laying companies that will do well. Yes, telecom is expanding. It is after all, an exploding information society. But there is simply too much competition among the cable/telco operators today in the U.S.A., Canada and probably Europe.

Here's the IYZ Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities ETF (XLU) closed up +1.74 pct W/W at 31.63, which was good for #3 out of the 10. On a week where they were all up, that makes XLU a stand-out.

For now. Bonds are still going south for a bit, and so will XLU, probably next week.

Here's the XLU Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

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Bonds:

The following table will tell you all you need to know as to why this market lifted this week. The Treasury auction for the two-year paper took place Wed May 24 at 1:00pm.

There's a bit of history here.

Back in 2000, the 2-year Treasury Notes were yielding over 6 pct and equity traders just cashed their chips, saying the risks were too high. So after the fall-out, say by late 1Q03, the Administration went to work after a Treasury Department make-over, including the hiring of a new Secretary.

Under the ‘Snow'man, in March 2003 the Treasury started buying up T-Bonds and Notes from bankers so that more money would be put into the reserves of those banks that would be then be lent to the hedge funds and private equity players. Ergo: bull market, and the ‘Snow'man went from riding the rails at CSX Corp to being professional bull rider.

You remember, John Snow was hired by the President to do this job in February 2003 soon after the predecessor Paul O'Neill refused to do what the President wanted, and instead stuck to the intellectual high road.

So with John Snow, all I can say in retrospect is, boy did Texans get rich while the West Coast took it in the ear. I guess that's what happens to the rest of the country when you don't elect the President.

And now it appears that yet another Texas oil man (can you believe it?) is about to slide into the saddle " I mean the ‘Snow'man's spot -- on the Bush team.

I'd like to make a side point, which is that CEO's in shareholder-owned corporations almost never do the job they take credit for, but they certainly demand multi-millions in compensation for just being there. How about that CEO job John Snow quickly left in February 2003 in order to join the Administration?

As CEO of CSX Corp, the ‘Snow'man left when CSX stock was in the mid-20's. Since then, without him, the stock has almost tripled (to $74.65) by early this month.

Then I started suggesting that there would soon be a new Treasury Secretary.

WIR #20-2006: "Actually, I really think the ‘Snow'man is out there looking. Have you noticed the pleasant demeanor? This is not the curmudgeon of old! He's trying to make it appear that he could fit it anywhere."

So after I (LOL) started passing the word to the People that the ‘Snow'man might soon resign from Treasury, the implication being he might go back to CSX, immediately the CSX stock plummeted to $67.

How's that for a heads-up? (Still laughing!)

Then on Thursday, the President showed once again he lives in his own world. You know of course that more than 3 years ago he hired John Snow as Treasury Secretary, not Commerce Secretary, but the President told us this:

"He has not talked to me about resignation. I think he's doing a fine job. After all, our economy is strong," Bush said in response to a question at a joint news conference with British Prime Minister Tony Blair at the White House. [MarketWatch, May 25, 2006]

So just to get the job description straight " because any President who can't even properly pronounce the word "nuclear" ought to be watched closely " I checked what this job really is: I found (Wiki), the Department of the Treasury was created by an Act of Congress passed on September 2, 1789:

"And be it...enacted, That it shall be the duty of the Secretary of the Treasury to digest and prepare plans for the improvement and management of the revenue, and for the support of public credit; to prepare and report estimates of the public revenue, and the public expenditures; to superintend the collection of revenue; to decide on the forms of keeping and stating accounts and making returns, and to grant under the limitations herein established, or to be hereafter provided, all warrants for monies to be issued from the Treasury, in pursuance of appropriations by law; to execute such services relative to the sale of the lands belonging to the United States, as may be by law required of him; to make report, and give information to either branch of the legislature, in person or in writing (as he may be required), respecting all matters referred to him by the Senate or House of Representatives, or which shall appertain to his office; and generally to perform all such services relative to the finances, as he shall be directed to perform."

Other than Afghanistan, Iraq, and maybe the cleaners, where is this President taking us? (No longer laughing!)

In any event, the financial market, which is the playpen of the kids in the Treasury and at the Fed but real money to the rest of us, is not easily duped " the Bond Guy notwithstanding " and so it turned bullish on Wednesday afternoon after the Treasury was able to sell $22 billion in 2-year Notes at the fab-u-lous yield of 4.933 or better.

You see, equity traders had their finger on the sell switch if, as and when a magic number of 5.000 or higher had appeared on their Bloombergs.

We're talking about traders who remember the year 2000, of course, and I don't think they are going to accept a 5 handle on the 2-year.

Ergo: the pop in gold, metals, and oil prices on Wednesday afternoon.

And I could give a sigh of relief that my puppies (ECA, SU, GG and GLG) would not have to be put down " I get to hold them for another week maybe. Well, maybe not GLG! Taking over 17-pct off the table in just 6 days is a major ka-ching!

Hooray for puppies; but before they get to be dogs, I find them a new home.

That's a nice way of saying these stocks aren't my children.

Weekly data charts:

Daily data charts:

Hourly data charts:

Note there is an obvious error in the following table for previous yields for the 30/10 year T-Bonds. It's not easy for me to fix. If you turn to Yahoo Finance (bond rates), you will see the same mistakes in yields. Previous WIR's had the correct values.

Table10: Yahoo Finance U.S. Treasury Debt, Municipal and Corporate Bond Yields.

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.70	4.69	4.69	4.64
6 Month	4.81	4.81	4.80	4.77
2 Year	4.93	4.95	4.96	4.98
3 Year	4.93	4.95	4.95	4.98
5 Year	4.95	4.96	4.96	5.01
10 Year	5.04	10.08	10.10	10.15
30 Year	5.15	10.28	10.28	10.33

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.64	3.62	3.64	3.61
2yr AAA	3.64	3.66	3.67	3.64
2yr A	3.69	3.67	3.68	3.63
5yr AAA	3.72	3.71	3.73	3.73
5yr AA	3.74	3.73	3.74	3.73
5yr A	3.75	3.75	3.80	3.77
10yr AAA	3.96	3.95	4.00	4.05
10yr AA	3.93	3.93	3.98	4.03
10yr A	4.14	4.12	4.17	4.17
20yr AAA	4.32	4.30	4.36	4.36
20yr AA	4.29	4.27	4.35	4.35
20yr A	4.49	4.48	4.53	4.52

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	5.30	5.33	5.34	5.36
2yr A	5.43	5.42	5.42	5.43
5yr AAA	5.46	5.48	5.47	5.45
5yr AA	5.51	5.56	5.56	5.58
5yr A	5.47	5.62	5.61	5.65
10yr AAA	4.65	5.78	5.75	5.89
10yr AA	1.58	5.86	5.90	5.93
10yr A	0.93	5.93	5.95	5.96
20yr AAA	6.00	6.15	6.16	6.13
20yr AA	6.42	6.35	6.35	6.50
20yr A	6.36	6.37	6.38	6.44

I did promise to remove SLM from this table (I agree it's not so interest-sensitive), but I just plain forgot.

Interest rates and bond yields.

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Two weeks ago, I gave a heads-up that the bonds were over-sold, and that was a good call.

But you were warned a week ago when I wrote: "All eyes are on metals, gold and the USD, which is probably a time to switch to bonds ; (and buy puts on the goldminers)."

This week, other than the news out of the 2-year Treasury auction on Wednesday, there was a very little action in the bond markets. Some money came out of T-Bills and went into stocks and (mostly) the 2-year Notes. And some money came out of the 30-year T-Bonds and went into the 10- and 5-year Notes. But, as I see it, there was very little going on.

The big news was the reluctance by a smiling ‘Snow'man to put a 5 handle on those 2-years until after he signs at least a 2-year employment contract on Wall Street, with a standing invitation by CNBC to fill in for Kernan. LOL

The 30-year T-Bond yield went from 5.13 up to 5.15 pct this week, and the 10-year bond went from a 5.05 pct yield down to 5.04. So, the price of the longer maturity TLT dropped a smidgeon (-0.21 pct) while the shorter one AGG rose a similar amount by +0.18 pct.

This is no big deal to 99.9 pct of you. The Death Watch of the 5.00 pct 2-year, however, is still on. Don't take your finger far away from the equity sell button.

There is a lot of important econ data out next Thursday and Friday regarding productivity and jobs, energy inventories, construction spending, factory orders, existing home sales, and on and on.

And the spin machine is taking a three or four day long weekend " only to return to the office by noon Wed ahead of the 2:00pm release of the FOMC fiction, I mean, Minutes.

I don't know if the spin people are going to have their stuff ("noise") ready by then.

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US Bond Funds -- Monthly Data Charts

SHY Monthly data series chart:

IEF Monthly data series chart:

TLT Monthly data series chart:

AGG Monthly data series chart:

LQD Monthly data series chart:

TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Hourly Data Charts

SHY Hourly data series chart:

IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

Table 11: Interest-sensitive securities

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
FRE	62.06	0.80	1.31%	2.48%	0.10%	1.64%	-4.96%	-8.67%	-4.08%	-4.51%
FNM	50.39	-0.12	-0.24%	1.02%	-0.92%	-0.42%	3.39%	-10.13%	0.62%	-15.13%
SLM	54.63	-0.19	-0.35%	0.42%	3.15%	3.31%	-2.11%	-4.14%	4.26%	11.51%
TIP	100.10	0.26	0.26%	0.30%	0.79%	0.20%	-2.85%	-2.48%	-3.42%	-6.09%
AGG	98.42	0.42	0.43%	0.18%	0.85%	-0.13%	-2.21%	-1.89%	-2.22%	-4.09%
IEF	80.75	0.07	0.09%	0.17%	1.05%	-0.06%	-3.75%	-2.48%	-3.57%	-6.40%
SHY	79.89	0.03	0.04%	0.16%	0.33%	-0.01%	-0.54%	-0.21%	-0.68%	-1.54%
CFC	39.11	1.29	3.41%	-0.26%	-6.37%	-3.81%	11.87%	10.17%	6.68%	6.71%
TLT	84.21	-0.06	-0.07%	-0.26%	1.86%	0.06%	-8.25%	-7.51%	-6.96%	-10.15%
CIT	51.46	0.37	0.72%	-3.38%	-5.33%	-4.72%	-2.20%	-4.15%	1.10%	20.71%

TLT was down slightly (-0.21 pct W/W) to 84.21. The shorter bonds made up for it. Hence, nothing much happened this week.

Consumer Finance -USA -- Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Daily Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA -- Hourly Data Charts

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Commodities:

$CRB had a first two day rally, followed bt a smash in the mouth, followed by a last two day rally. $CRB finally closed up +2.71 pct W/W to 347.82. Interesting week.

What made it really interesting was Wednesday when Mr. Banker sold so much oil and gold that day to take in those 2-year Notes at the Treasury auction. So the commodity traders got punched in the nose, but did you see how strong they came back on Thursday and Friday? Trust me, the Fed and their friendly money center banks are not free and clear of the commodity speculators. Not by a long shot.

If you look at the congestion around the 50 day Moving Average line for the past couple weeks, you will see that just maybe $CRB is basing for a significant summer rally. Sometime in June, I think.

Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Daily CRB Commodities Index:

Ultimately " perhaps late summer -- $WTIC (near oil futures) will fall off, first to the mid 60's, then later in the year to the mid-50's and then sometime in 2007 down to the mid-40's. What will do that is a business recession in the USA and Europe (I think Canada will muddle through with a small growth).

Weekly Crude Oil:

Daily Crude Oil:

If $WTIC ever drops to the mid-40's, then the Alberta oil sands play will become a bargain at the prices these stocks will have come down to.

Right now they are pricey, but chaseable after pullbacks. The worry of course is that after a pullback, there is another, and another!

A week ago I wrote: "Ah, but I was back in on Friday morning with SU and ECA, and on Friday SU was up +0.7 pct and ECA was up +1.00 pct, so even though my mouth was hurting, at least my nose caught a whiff of a turnaround."

Well, they were up again this week a ton (average +5.3 pct).

That's still a short-term trade. Don't forget that I have some readers who are long and some short-term oriented. Some technical, some fundamental. And 143 countries means they are spread all over the place. I try to please everybody.

Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Gold:

I'm not going to get into the golds too much here this week. By now you know I did well buying Glamis and Goldcorp after they got smashed. In six sessions, the stocks were up +17.3 pct and +3.4 pct, respectively.

I will say, go for the juniors, but if a junior company needs to be financed, or isn't drilling and waiting for results that could turn out spectacular, then I'd hold off.

I think some of these promoters are starting to take some chips off the table, which concerns me. Oh, they'll be back, just like you and me; but likely only after the precious metal prices start to move again.

I'd also watch Robert McEwen because his USGL is drilling as fast as he can put $$$ into the ground. And Bob has tonnes of money " although I'm starting to get the feeling he may be getting some of it by selling a little Goldcorp, where he is still the big shareholder. Maybe somebody could check the insider selling on that? TIA

Actually, maybe we should be watching insider sales for this whole group?

Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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$SILVER closed up +1.53 pct W/W to 12.75, which is just 19 wooden cents.

And, for you silver crazies, don't think that a gain this week versus a loss for gold is great for silver. Think back a week ago when silver was down -12.8 pct! This was merely a dead cat bounce.

Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT closed at $1,296.50, down -$1.30 W/W. No big deal.

Friday was an up day, +0.78 pct.

But there is a lot of air between today's price (1296.50) and the 50 day MA (1156.39).

Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Platinum metal index.

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$PALL closed the week at 355.23, which by my records is a drop of $20, but the charts don't show that, so I won't comment.

Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Palladium metal index.

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$COPPER gained +$0.75 (+0.20 pct) W/W to close Friday at 370.10. It hangs in, but could drop the minute that the "R" word gets uttered (recession).

Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Copper metal index.

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Table 12: Senior gold equities

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GLG	37.70	0.76	2.06%	11.87%	-4.41%	-3.95%	26.72%	28.36%	60.22%	172.40%
LIHRY	45.35	0.98	2.21%	6.63%	-14.71%	-9.73%	30.77%	39.54%	40.75%	166.45%
BVN	26.42	-0.03	-0.11%	4.68%	-8.68%	-13.06%	-10.62%	-5.51%	-6.01%	26.35%
NEM	52.30	0.22	0.42%	2.41%	-7.10%	-10.38%	-8.47%	-9.98%	11.13%	43.29%
GG	30.84	-0.05	-0.16%	2.22%	-17.89%	-12.19%	27.44%	19.91%	42.91%	135.42%
KGC	10.98	0.01	0.09%	1.29%	-10.59%	-10.37%	11.02%	13.20%	36.57%	115.72%
ABX	30.87	-0.06	-0.19%	1.01%	-8.12%	1.28%	7.11%	10.09%	12.54%	39.43%
MDG	30.90	0.05	0.16%	0.88%	-10.82%	-4.92%	28.96%	21.03%	53.12%	95.45%
AEM	33.01	-0.18	-0.54%	0.40%	-12.42%	-10.44%	49.77%	23.96%	115.61%	185.80%
GFI	21.28	0.19	0.90%	-0.23%	-14.05%	-16.25%	10.43%	-8.20%	33.84%	100.57%

To watch the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, preferably in real-time, as follows:

AAUK NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY GLG KGC BVN
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO PAAS GOLD CDE GRS
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

CBJ SSRI RGLD SIL NG KRY HL TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG GRZ
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW WTZ MGN

15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

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This week the U.S.-listed goldminers index ($XAU) was up +1.82 pct W/W to close at 142.59. I think a cycle low of 133.13 will be tested, but may hold because of technical support.

Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminers ETF (XGD) gained +1.65 pct W/W to 75.22. It had a good day Friday, up +0.71 pct.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

XGD Weekly data:

XGD Daily data:

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Forex:

The $USD continued its mini-rally. After 22 straight declining sessions it gained a week ago by +1.2 pct. This week $USD gained a further +0.40 pct. BUT the gain on Friday was +0.55 pct, closing at 85.22.

There may be some further bounce to test the short-term cycle high of 85.47, or the 50d MA of 87.30, but I don't think it will go much higher, if at all.

I am concerned about the investigation in the massacre of Iraqi civilians that will likely lead to murder charges, according to reports. And I remember how badly the market reacted when disclosures of improper treatment of prisoners in Iraq came up. These are charges of invading a home and slaughtering many people, including ten women and children.

Mark these words: if the charges are true, the world will not tolerate such behavior. The $USD is likely to suffer. This is a very bad situation that spinmasters can't hope to put a happy face to.

Unfortunately, there is a link between politics and capital markets. You cannot tell the Iraqi people you are there to save them, and bring them democracy and strong values, and then murder them without severe hostility, not just from the Iraqi's but from abroad.

Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

The Euro (priced in USD) was down -0.39 pct, closing at 127.14. But it was down Friday by -0.70 pct, so the loss was all on Friday.

Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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International Equities:

This week, Japan (EWJ) dropped -1.4 pct. On Friday EWJ was up +1.3 pct, and it may rally here, but the question is how high. China and India were down a lot.

Table 13: International equities perspective

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
TRF	78.80	4.80	6.49%	6.41%	-3.90%	-10.81%	45.93%	0.69%	52.57%	89.01%
EWC	24.12	0.21	0.88%	2.64%	-2.27%	-2.98%	7.44%	3.43%	12.45%	42.05%
SPY	128.38	0.65	0.51%	1.01%	-0.67%	-2.35%	1.33%	-0.80%	0.98%	6.98%
IEV	91.09	0.39	0.43%	0.82%	-3.70%	-2.56%	9.13%	5.71%	13.92%	22.02%
EWU	20.98	0.18	0.87%	0.82%	-3.32%	-2.19%	9.50%	6.50%	12.13%	17.27%
QQQQ	39.49	0.13	0.33%	0.36%	-1.74%	-5.64%	-4.41%	-4.29%	-5.71%	3.40%
EWZ	39.16	1.46	3.87%	-0.74%	-9.77%	-11.50%	12.43%	-7.20%	15.01%	67.28%
EWJ	14.28	0.18	1.28%	-1.38%	-3.77%	-3.51%	2.37%	3.33%	14.06%	41.39%
IFN	50.01	0.95	1.94%	-2.95%	-13.03%	-9.57%	21.18%	1.09%	22.81%	82.58%
FXI	74.84	-0.41	-0.54%	-4.24%	-7.03%	-4.78%	18.81%	1.34%	21.49%	38.90%

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

The Japanese equity market ETF (EWJ, priced in USD), was down -1.38 pct W/W to 14.28.

The Bank of Japan and real estate inflation and the strength of the Yen affecting exporters (like autos and techs) are the issue here going forward.

Yes, on Friday, EWJ snapped back, but it may be over-bought, and ready for more selling into next week. We'll see after the U.S. Memorial Day holiday what's happened in the Tokyo market.

I turn to the Yahoo Finance international market charts and prices (in domestic prices and currencies) more than I do these country ETF's that trade in USD in the U.S. market. But I review the ETF's because frankly it's easier for me to get the data automatically.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWJ Weekly data:

EWJ Daily data:

EWJ Hourly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

This week EWU rallied by +0.82 pct W/W but a week ago EWU was down -4.10 pct W/W and that followed other severe losses. All of which says that this weeks rally was a rather weak bounce.

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWU Weekly data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Hourly data:

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Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

The EWC (Canada's equity market ETF that trades in the U.S. in USD) was up +2.64 pct W/W to 24.12. That was the result of oil having a bit of a rally, and also the whole market having a bounce off the prior week's over-sold decline of -4.78 pct.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWC Weekly data:

EWC Daily data:

EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

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U.S. Equities:

The Dow 30 rallied +1.21 pct; S&P 500 was up +1.04 pct; the Nasdaq was up +0.75 pct; and the Russell small cap index was up +0.97 pct.

I never trust a rally that is not led by small caps and the tech-heavy Naz.

Ergo; this rally was a small bounce. I said earlier that it happened right after the 2-year U.S. Treasury paper enjoyed a successful $22 billion sale at a declining yield.

But this coming (short) week is one packed with econ data and political stories that could sink the ship. We'll have to watch the data.

Here is the Monthly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

The following table shows the weekly price performance of the Dow 30 stocks, which I sorted by 1-week price change.

There were 22 Dow stocks up, and 8 down on the week, which is a notable reversal.

With all the losers a week ago I wrote: "George, the ‘Snow'man and HelioBen need 10 more (winners) to hold the fort. They'll probably manage that for a week or two until the ‘Snow'man manages to get a job placement via CNBC. But as soon as he departs, just watch the negative action in the market, and the blame the poor man is going to have heaped upon his shoulders... In the interim, now that his book deal is in the bank, the last Fed Head is hoping to rake in a few more million on the lecture and seminar circuit before the market sinks, embarrassing everybody in Washington, the recent past and present."

Oh isn't it really about politics and money? And it's supposed to be about economics (macro and micro) and money " or so we're told.

Table 14: Dow 30 List

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
GM	28.08	0.18	0.65%	13.78%	7.79%	22.73%	48.57%	40.47%	22.83%	-12.11%
MSFT	23.72	-0.02	-0.08%	5.14%	2.37%	-1.78%	-11.62%	-10.93%	-14.55%	-8.42%
WMT	49.65	0.20	0.40%	4.92%	6.68%	10.26%	7.40%	9.24%	-1.66%	4.95%
AXP	54.41	0.32	0.59%	4.17%	2.87%	1.12%	3.48%	-0.84%	3.40%	2.89%
T	26.23	0.53	2.06%	3.76%	2.38%	0.08%	6.15%	-4.86%	5.89%	10.91%
CAT	74.42	0.46	0.62%	2.25%	-4.36%	-1.74%	28.75%	2.37%	28.42%	57.60%
MO	72.47	0.35	0.49%	2.07%	2.94%	-0.94%	-3.35%	0.03%	-1.36%	7.08%
KO	44.49	0.12	0.27%	1.92%	3.03%	6.03%	8.78%	5.35%	3.95%	-0.89%
VZ	31.49	0.34	1.09%	1.91%	-0.94%	-4.66%	3.65%	-6.86%	-1.53%	-10.92%
XOM	61.58	0.06	0.10%	1.87%	-1.06%	-2.38%	5.32%	1.92%	2.45%	9.53%
PG	55.13	-0.13	-0.24%	1.81%	0.22%	-5.29%	-6.21%	-10.36%	-3.75%	-1.22%
HPQ	32.54	0.27	0.84%	1.62%	1.28%	0.22%	13.10%	1.62%	9.45%	41.48%
C	49.57	0.50	1.02%	1.58%	1.18%	-0.76%	0.57%	5.81%	0.10%	4.62%
JNJ	60.69	0.24	0.40%	1.32%	3.16%	3.55%	-1.53%	5.07%	-2.35%	-9.98%
DIS	30.51	0.36	1.19%	1.19%	2.04%	9.12%	25.04%	9.04%	21.80%	9.75%
JPM	43.23	0.38	0.89%	1.12%	-2.46%	-4.74%	7.56%	3.77%	11.25%	20.28%
AA	32.30	0.64	2.02%	1.00%	-7.21%	-4.38%	8.03%	7.10%	18.19%	18.14%
PFE	24.00	0.15	0.63%	0.76%	-2.04%	-5.25%	0.93%	-8.99%	10.75%	-16.96%
IBM	80.75	0.61	0.76%	0.59%	-1.94%	-1.93%	-1.60%	0.81%	-9.07%	4.68%
AIG	61.47	0.56	0.92%	0.51%	-2.71%	-5.79%	-11.71%	-8.21%	-10.74%	10.34%
GE	34.33	-0.09	-0.26%	0.50%	0.15%	-0.75%	-2.94%	3.59%	-5.17%	-7.07%
MRK	34.56	0.17	0.49%	0.41%	0.73%	0.41%	5.53%	-1.54%	11.56%	6.83%
UTX	62.60	0.21	0.34%	-0.16%	-3.62%	-0.33%	10.74%	6.30%	15.26%	16.34%
MMM	83.87	0.61	0.73%	-0.52%	-3.12%	-1.83%	6.02%	13.48%	7.09%	8.95%
DD	42.56	0.26	0.61%	-0.58%	-3.69%	-3.49%	-1.16%	5.56%	-1.37%	-9.50%
HD	38.67	0.27	0.70%	-0.69%	-3.33%	-3.16%	-6.23%	-7.11%	-8.84%	-3.13%
INTC	18.22	0.17	0.94%	-0.76%	-4.31%	-8.81%	-28.74%	-10.51%	-32.04%	-33.43%
BA	83.50	0.51	0.61%	-1.31%	-4.03%	0.06%	18.71%	12.37%	20.91%	32.56%
HON	41.09	0.55	1.36%	-1.98%	-4.24%	-3.32%	9.69%	-0.94%	11.29%	12.11%
MCD	32.92	-0.34	-1.02%	-3.60%	-5.62%	-4.77%	-1.79%	-6.85%	-1.61%	4.57%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at www.investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance.

AA AIG AXP BA C CAT DD DIS GE GM HD HON HPQ IBM INTC JNJ JPM KO MCD MMM MO MRK MSFT PFE PG T UTX VZ WMT XOM

The top six Dow 30 winners this past week:
GM, up +13.78-pct; well informed arbitrage players only permitted
MSFT, up +5.14-pct; VISTA may really be something. Maybe. Some day.
WMT, up +4.92-pct; was 2nd biggest Dow 30 winner a week ago too. Defensive.
AXP, up +4.17-pct; new bank card competition in the market has buyers looking?
T, up +3.76-pct; I really don't know.
CAT, up +2.25-pct; explanation previously given re sales to the miners

The six worst Dow 30 losers this past week:
MCD, down -3.60-pct; no comment
HON, down -1.98-pct; stronger USD hurts
BA, down -1.31-pct; stronger USD hurts
INTC, down -0.76-pct; was in #4 position a week ago, down -3.57 pct
HD, down -0.69-pct; Nardelli millions maybe?
DD, down -0.58-pct; economy? Higher oil prices?

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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The latest Value Line Reports on the Dow 30 are for AIG (AIG), American Express (AXP), Citigroup (C), JP Morgan (JPM), and Microsoft (MSFT).

Of these, only Citigroup is in the Cara 100.

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(AA) (AA) Financials (Here is the Apr. 21 Value Line report on AA: next one is due Jul. 21)

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(AIG) (AIG) Financials (Here is the May 26 Value Line report on AIG: next one is due Aug. 25)

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(AXP) (AXP) Financials (Here is the May 26 Value Line report on AXP: next one is due Aug. 25)

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(BA) (BA) Financials (Here is the Mar. 24 Value Line report on BA: next one is due Jun. 23)

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(C) (C) Financials (Here is the May 26 Value Line report on C: next one is due Aug. 25) Cara 100

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(CAT) (CAT) Financials (Here is the Apr. 28 Value Line report on CAT: next one is due Jul. 28)

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(DD) (DD) Financials ( Here is the Apr. 21 Value Line report on DD: next one is due Jul. 21)

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(DIS) (DIS) Financials (Here is the May 19 Value Line report on DIS: next one is due Aug. 18) Cara 100

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(GE) (GE) Financials ( Here is the Apr. 14 Value Line report on GE: next one is due Jul. 14) Cara 100

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(GM) (GM) Financials Here is the Mar. 3 Value Line report on GM: next one is due Jun. 2)

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(HD) (HD) Financials (Here is the Apr. 8 Value Line report on HD: next one is due Jul. 7) Cara 100

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(HON) (HON) Financials (Here is the Apr. 28 Value Line report on HON: next one is due Jul. 28)

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(HPQ) (HPQ) Financials (Here is the Apr. 14 Value Line report on HPQ: next one is due Jul. 14)

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(IBM) (IBM) Financials ( Here is the Apr. 14 Value Line report on IBM: next one is due Jul. 14)

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(INTC) (INTC) Financials ( Here is the Apr. 14 Value Line report on INTC: next one is due Jul. 14) Cara 100

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(JNJ) (JNJ) Financials Here is the Mar. 3 Value Line report on JNJ: next one is due Jun. 2) Cara 100

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(JPM) (JPM) Financials Here is the May 26 Value Line report on JPM: next one is due Aug. 25)

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(KO) (KO) Financials (Here is the May 5 Value Line report on KO: next one is due Aug.4)

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(MCD) (MCD) Financials (Here is the Mar. 10 Value Line report on MCD: next one is due Jun. 9)

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(MMM) (MMM) Financials (Here is the May 19 Value Line report on MMM: next one is due Aug. 18) Cara 100

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(MO) (MO) Financials (Here is the May 5 Value Line report on MO: next one is due Aug. 4)

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(MRK) (MRK) Financials ( Here is the Apr. 21 Value Line report on MRK: next one is due Jul. 21)

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(MSFT) (MSFT) Financials (Here is the May 26 Value Line report on MSFT: next one is due Aug. 25)

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(PFE) (PFE) Financials (Here is the Apr. 21 Value Line report on PFE: next one is due Jul. 21)

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(PG) (PG) Financials (Here is the Apr. 8 Value Line report on PG: next one is due Jul. 7) Cara 100

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(T) (T) Financials (Here is the Mar. 31 Value Line report on T: next one is due May 30)

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(UTX) (UTX) Financials (Here is the Apr. 28 Value Line report on UTX: next one is due Jul. 28) Cara 100

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(VZ) (VZ) Financials (Here is the Mar. 31 Value Line report on VZ: next one is due May 30)

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(WMT) (WMT) Financials (Here is the May 12 Value Line report on WMT: next one is due Aug. 11) Cara 100

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(XOM) (XOM) Financials (Here is the Mar. 17 Value Line report on XOM: next one is due Jun. 16) Cara 100

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Wrap up:

I enjoy the challenge of beating the people who control the market rather than beating the market itself.

Even most bank and dealer staff don't know how had the financial system is broke. But their senior managers certainly do.

These people work in the world's most conflicted system, and don't act to fix it because they think that everyone from Mom & Pop to money managers is either stupid or willing to go along with the sting.

Collectively, the financial services sell-side makes hundreds of billions of dollars annually simply because some lawmakers back in 1933 and 1934 gave them the license to steal from the owners and managers of capital.

How? By advising us, screening our order flow, and trading against us in the same transaction, and then serving as judge and jury over our complaints.

This is such a rotten system " I didn't get to the top floor of the Toronto Stock Exchange tower and build the Eastern Canada operations of the country's biggest non-bank broker-dealer, and then come back 14 years later to Vancouver to do the same for the country's biggest non-bank discount broker, if I didn't see it all.

Believe me the system is rotten to the core.

These banks that trade against our order flow are making billions in trading. They are skimming the wealth of the People, and it has to stop.

So, as I teach the People how to beat them one trade at a time, I get to tell the story.

You know, I have been very conservative in this blog. The odd time I'll drop you a note that gets into extreme trading just to show that I'll cover all aspects of trading e.g., buying some PD calls that made about 300 pct in a few days, but mostly it's conservative.

But after I move to a friendlier regulatory environment, I intend to become very aggressive, both in this blog as well as possibly offering a Fund where I will trade my own money along with the People's. I decided in recent days that I may do that after I get to 1 million blog hits per day, because setting up my own prop desk as a business model would get my project started earlier than planned.

P.S., a million blog hits per day is not that far off.

To close on a very serious matter, I believe that British Prime Minister Tony Blair and George Bush gathered in Washington on Thursday to get their next cover-up story in sync. This weekend, the news is out that quite probably American marines massacred 24 Iraqi civilians in a home invasion, killing also 10 women and children. These soldiers will in all probability stand trial for murder.

By the grim look on Senator McCain's face today, I think the tension will ultimately escalate far above heretofore anticipated levels.

As I see it, this situation in Iraq is out of control, and the President's assets continue to leave by the next elevator. That's not a happy note to end on, but I feel, notwithstanding a two and a half day rally in New York and Toronto, equity prices are in general decline around the world, as the real world is starting to come down to earth. There have been too many moon shots lately for traders not to be tired of it all.

As 67 pct of my readers are Americans, I have to wish them a happy Memorial Day weekend. I'll be watching the Indy 500 as well as the Monaco F-1 Grand Prix, and trying to get out on the lake for a great day, or what's left of my weekend. And while I do that maybe you can forward a link of this report to just one friend. You see; that way I will get to 1 million hits per day faster. :-)

Today was glorious so I enjoyed much of it outdoors drinking a few vodka and pomegranate soda pops. I don't think it affected my work, but I'll let you be the judge of that. LOL

BCara@BillCara.com