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May 20, 2006
Week #20 (2006-05-20) in Review (FINAL)
A week ago, I wrote: "My words are heavy, and not easy for most people to take. I am, however, calling it like I see it."
But, sometimes my eyes are crossed, so be wary. :-)
Last night I wrote:
"I just awoke from a 6 hour sleep and I'm groggy. I recall writing something about Ugly Canadians. Maybe I should go back to bed.Better, I'm going to tell you something good " even great " about Canada: ROBTV. Is anybody in the world doing Financial TV better? I can't imagine.
For starters, go to ROBTV.com and click on today's (Friday) video Replay of a discussion on Xstrata, Inco, Falconbridge and Teck-Cominco by Eric Reguly, in discussion with Kim Parlee at 6:00pm. Eric by the way is one of just two or three professional writers who publicly shared my views on Stelco.
For those who haven't been exposed to ROBTV, this 10-minute clip shows the quality that CNBCTV could never hope to match. Until a year ago I put CNBC International (not the U.S. show) and BloombergTV on a par with ROBTV; but then Bloomberg has fallen well behind, and CNBC USA has bastardized the international show (after they took over from Dow Jones & Co) as I warned they would.
One day I'm going to do a Top Ten List of all the things I like about ROBTV. It's part of My Canada.
I'll try to do this WIR on Saturday. But I'm going to have to feel better than I do right now."
This morning I wrote something nasty about Insider Trading at the Fed, but decided to leave it til tomorrow. I thought I was in good shape with 16 hours sleep so that this WIR would be a breeze through. Unfortunately my head wasn't altogether there, and was becoming unglued as I pressed on today.
So without further ado, here is the WIR. It's not the best, but I'll try to make it up next week.
"In Spain, it is called 'estacada'. The Death of the Bull. I think we're going through that process now. Pray that the Bear is ruthless and fast." " May 13, 2006 " Bill Cara
Enough noodling. Let's see what happened in the markets this week.
Global Market Summary
International Equities: A week ago I wrote: "Technically speaking, the Japanese and Canadian equity markets broke down on Friday." Well, this week they were trashed " along with UK and Europe. And these are G-7 nations. Wait til you see what happened to emerging economies like India, Russia and Brazil. Can you say down -10 pct in a single week, -17 pct in two?
U.S. Equities : Ten of 10 ETF's and 24 of the Dow 30 were down. This week was "different" all right " down -2 to -3 pct including a recovery day Friday.
Dow 30 : 6 up -- 24 down. That's actually a recovery of 1.
U.S. Sector ETFs: Zero up and 10 down (XLP the best, but down -0.2 pct)
First segment: most influenced by commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #10 (-4.8 pct); "soft economy ahead, or profit taking?"
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #9 (-4.6 pct); "likely some profit taking"
20: Industrials (XLI): #8 (-2.6 pct); "likely some profit taking"
Second segment: most influenced by consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #5 (-1.2 pct); autos and cruiselines hurt
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #1 (-0.2 pct); Wallies (WAG & WMT) were up
35: Healthcare (IYH): #2 (-0.4 pct); JNJ, AET and DNA were up
Third segment: most influenced by interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #6 (-1.8 pct); 2 good days out of past 15
45: Tech (SMH chips): #7 (-2.0 pct); 10 weak days in a row
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): #4 (-1.0 pct); rate relief this week
55: Utilities (XLU): #3 (-0.6 pct); rate relief here too
Bonds: My advice of a week ago was timely: "Probably a time to switch to bonds". That would have been a good temporary move. TLT was up +2.1 pct W/W. But after a pause here for a week or so, rates will lift again because inflation is still a problem, and budget deficits must be financed, and the foreign carry trade is being (or will be) unwound as Japan's bank rate will sooner or later rise to combat real estate speculation
Commodities: A week ago: "Speculators can only make so many unrealized gains before they actually want to realize some of them before they disappear". This week the loss in the Commodity Index was -6.4 pct W/W, so my advice was timely.
Oil & Gas: A week ago I wrote: "Crude oil remains strong (for now), but the oilers are weak". So this week crude oil was down -5.4 pct and the oilers dropped -4.8 pct W/W.
Gold: A week ago I warned: "A $33 moon shoot this week (following +$29 a week ago). However, I believe a short-term pull-back may have begun, with spot GOLD down -$9.50 on Friday. Clearly, due to the extreme sell-off in USD, speculation in the metals is rampant and there is now a disconnect between the metals and the miners. If this gets worse, just remember that with margin calls, everything gets pitched." Timely advice because this week $GOLD (the near futures) dropped -$56.20 (-7.9 pct)
Goldminers: A week ago I wrote: "I think the miners drop down more next week". I also said to protect your gold stock positions with puts. Wasn't that an understatement? $XAU plunged -12.2 pct and XGD (TSX goldminers ETF) was worse, down -12.7 pct! This puts the metal and the miners more in line. I like the junior producing miners here, but will pick and choose carefully.
Forex: A week ago with $USD down to 83.88, I wrote: "The Daily data chart looks spectacular. The nuk-u-lar meltdown started the morning of April 17... The question now is, can the Fed stop the run on the bank?" The implication of course was the Fed was going to try. This week $USD was up +1.2 pct, and the brief rally may continue.
Sector ETF:
With 10 out of 10 sectors down for two weeks in a row, and money now chasing the defensive Consumer Staples (sector 30), it looks like a bit of a panic. But the Hourly data charts show that it's probably a little too early to panic.
Had the Fed not been buying bonds, which goosed the debt-heavy telcos and utilities, and had the autos and cruiseships not been so bad, the Consumer Discretionary sector would have come in at #3 (out of 10 losers admittedly) rather than #5. That would have put the three consumer sectors at #1 (staples), 2 (healthcare) and 3. So I ask why?
Seriously? Could it be that the cost of energy, which is a terrible tax on the consumer, is perceived as falling, and that the Little People will have more money to shop at Walgreens and Wal-Marts, and not have to walk to the store?
Is this really a sustainable trend or just a temporary port in a storm?
You know, with all the jobless claims, and a major Fed report saying that the economy is slowing, and the wealth effect from a rising real estate market no longer happening, and; and; and; I just can't buy the argument that Mom & Pop are going to send their kids to more movies, buy more electronic games and music, etc. Keeping them safe at home watching American Idol (and not spending $$$)? Now that I can see; but even that's over this coming week.
And the financials and techs " you know, the sectors that are supposed to lead every U.S. equity market rally " are going nowhere. They came in at #6 and #7 this week, nudged out by the three USD and Commodity price sensitive sectors that were in total disarray, with the latter caused more by profit-taking than by any long-term common sense.
So where other than the farm and supermarket is the beef? No, even a likely rally that's due this week is probably cat meat, and disposed of fairly quickly.
So if Earnings Season couldn't drive this market through all-time record highs, what is it going to be? The end of inflation, lower interest rates, next quarter's earnings, the end of war and civil strife in the world, the ‘Snow'man's replacement, Google Finance, the capitulation of OPEC, the return of Al Gore? I dunno, but I can tell you that I don't see anything on the horizon, including the U.S. cavalry, that is going to save the day.
But then you knew the Bull was on the way out when a week ago I wrote: "I just smell it when the manure is being pitch-forked against the CNBCTV audience. A week ago Friday, it was about as bad as it gets (as I told you then). And look at the results this week: 10 out of 10 ETF's are down, and not just by a little bit."
So this week, it was another 10 for 10 sectors down.
What I do see coming for the next couple months is a series of lower highs and lower lows like a slinky toy in action, and I see that capital is trying to find a port in the storm. And in the most recent two weeks that port was nowhere near India (down "16.69 pct) or Russia (down "19.95 pct).
For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds. The table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.
Table 1: Cara ETF List
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the Summaries window at Investertech.com and then clicking on the link for Performance. XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU
10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)
20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)
This week, XLE was down -4.79 pct to 54.02, and Crude Oil ($WTIC) was down -5.44 pct. That makes XLE the worst performer this week of my 10 ETF's. A week ago it was #9.
A week ago I wrote: "Didn't I tell you the rally that started a week ago mid-day Thursday was a phony one? Didn't I say, "Still, I continue to move from being over-weighted to being market-weighted in energy " but I'll be back soon to being over-weighted (Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela, Bolivia, driving season, hurricane season, and the ?? possibility of doing Iran)? I'll be back, but not before oiler share prices settle back a lot"."
Yes, there are some pockets of the energy sector I like. I'm watching the oil drillers, and the alternative fuels industries, because these are more long-term oriented.
Here's the XLE Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

Table 2: Senior oil & gas equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
With the severe shake-out in the commodities market that had taken down the many of the oils by more than 10 pct over the previous two weeks, I decided that Friday morning just before my mad rush to the dental office that I would step into stocks like SU and ECA (oils) and GG and GLG (golds), for a trade based on my assessment/judgement that the market was technically oversold (in a secular long-term bull for these two sectors) and would commence a recovery rally in an intermediate-term bear phase (one that has the potential to become much more serious).
Don't ask me to explain this any more than I had my mind mostly on an upcoming root canal. And I would have written this up except that on my way to the dentist my car dropped a cylinder (I'm told) on the highway, and the triple freezing and stop over at the garage on my way home (to pick up a temp car) took long enough for the freezing to wear off and I headed straight to bed. Except for a two hour break, I slept for 18 hours.
Now I can see that I was just an hour or two early on Friday morning and that the corrective wave has begun. I will likely be out of those positions soon because I expect the market to become rather like a slinky toy here, and the drops could be large ones like the past seven sessions.
Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)
The Basic Materials sector ETF (XLB) was down -4.59 pct W/W to close at 32.25, which was #9 out of 10 worst performer on the week.
Here's the XLB Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

Table 3: Senior metals and steel equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Most of the quality companies in the metals have dropped over 10 pct in the past two weeks, with most of the losses taking place this week. The losers run the gamut from copper, aluminum, iron ore and steel to the precious metals. Some of the best gold miners are down -20 pct over the past week alone (Goldcorp, Lihir, etc).
On Friday morning with the freefall of gold apparently stopping at about $659, I decided to step back in " for a quick trade. I had assumed that the 660 level would be a support. But shortly after the small bounce, gold dropped to about 650 before starting its corrective rally.
Yes, I do think there will be three legs down, possibly to $640, and maybe down to 600 or lower. But you never know about these things. And since gold is in a powerful uptrend, it's going to take a major driver to reverse it. The only driver I see possible is flat out deflation and I can't fathom that with the strength of the economy today and the willingness of central banks to print money and keep interest rates from powering too far north, too fast.
Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)
The ETF for the Industrials and Transport sector, aka capital goods producers, (XLI) was down 2.55 pct W/W to close at 34.04, #8 worst performer this week out of 10.
Here's the XLI Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

Table 4: Senior capital goods makers and transportation
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Some of the leaders in this sector have suffered greatly. Over 2 weeks, CAT is down -9.0 pct, BA down -4.4 pct and UTX down -3.4 pct (and UTX was only one of five stocks that were up two weeks ago, so its loss was all done this week).
I feel that even if the $USD rallies here, it will not likely be enough to hurt these exporting companies. I think their concern is for higher interest rates because most have relatively heavy debt structures.
CAT has been the strongest stock performer of the sector over 3, 6 and 12 months because of unit sales growth plus pricing power as the metal miners have expanded global operations in this commodity price cycle. Caterpillar has been selling a lot of replacement equipment as well, I believe, because for 20 years from 1981, the world was caught in a financial boom (commodity price bust) that caused mining companies to retrench.
Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)
The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was down -1.23 pct W/W to close Friday at 33.68.
Traders still liked Disney (NYSE: DIS), which was up +0.84 pct W/W. But they just adored Starbucks (NDQ: SBUX), which on a real tough week for U.S. equities, was up +1.91 pct.
Yes, the Little People could spare $4 for a latte! Maybe I ought to drop SBUX and THI into the Consumer Staples, do you think? I mean, these places are more social hang-outs and community places of business these days. The coffee is just an after-thought. In fact, I heard the Timmy Horton marketing VP say that their customers cannot miss their drive-through on the way to work. It's an obsession, which sounds to me like a staple.
So these could be places to park capital if you have to be long equities in a declining market.
Yes, I think I'll put them into the Consumer Staples group, like I did Wal-Mart.
Here's the XLY Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

Table 5: Senior consumer discretionary equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Whole Foods Markets (NDQ: WFMI) is definitely in the Staples sector, because it's food, but whether or not shoppers pay that extra 30 points during a potential business recession and market slide is dubious. You might say that WFMI (healthy food) is on the verge of being a Consumer Discretionary when it's just plain old food people are thinking about " at least enough people to make a difference. WFMI dropped -8.5 pct over two weeks.
Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)
The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was down -0.21 pct W/W to close Friday at 23.62, which means that it dropped a wooden nickel. That puts XLP in the #1 performer of the week spot, which is to be expected when there is a financial war going on and traders go defensive. This week, XLP could also be Performer of the Weak.
Here's the XLP Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

Table 6: Senior consumer staples equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Now I know for sure we're in extremis (aka shell-shocked). Diageo (NYSE: DEO) was down -3.5 pct W/W. When the world stops drinking Guinness, something's amiss.
Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)
The healthcare ETF (IYH) was down -0.41 pct W/W to close at 60.18. That makes it #2 best performer, this week.
Are there really that many of us seeking healthcare treatments? My family doctor (now retired) once said he could tell when the market was down from the number of basket cases he was treating.
Here's the IYH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

Table 7: Senior healthcare equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
Big Pharma got hammered this week. Pfizer (PFE) was down -2.8 pct, but Bristol Myers (BMY) was down only -0.5 pct W/W.
A week ago I wrote: "Aetna had a great week, up +4.3 pct. I mentioned in the blog recently that I like the company, and that it's in the Cara 100. Maybe the Saudi prince jumped all over it?" This week AET was up +1.62 pct, making it +6.0 pct over 2 weeks. And JNJ was up +1.82 pct this week. Both are in the Cara 100.
Cara 100 GICS 35 (JNJ) (JNJ) Financials Here is the Mar. 3 Value Line report on JNJ: next one is due Jun. 2)
Aetna Inc. (AET) (AET) Financials
Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)
The Financial sector ETF (XLF) was down -1.81 pct W/W to 32.60. The bonds were up, so these stocks ought to have been stronger.
They did have a good day Friday, with UBS up +2.2 pct, Lehman Bros (NYSE: LEH) up +1.9 pct, and Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) up +1.8 pct " all Friday. But these stocks stunk the rest of the week, going down between -3 and -6 pct W/W in most cases. The heaviest weighted, Citigroup (NYSE: C), another Cara 100, was down just -0.39 pct.
Here's the XLF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:
XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

Table 8: Senior financial company equities
| Symbol | Close | 1Day Change |
1Day %Change |
1W %Change |
2W %Change |
4W %Change |
YTD %Change |
3M %Change |
6M %Change |
12M %Change |
