Since U.S, Independence Day last July 4, the S&P 500 is up +11.0 pct, but the $USD is down -8.0 pct just from November, so the equity gains by foreigners have been pathetic. And how about the massive losses suffered by everybody (foreigner and American alike) in the U.S. bond market recently?

Again since Independence Day 2005, the capital value of the Lehman 20+-year Treasury Bond TLT (adjusted for payouts) has fallen from $92.70 to $83.60, which is a loss of -9.8 pct.

While TV talking heads are blabbering on about the Dow being at six year highs, the U.S. bond market, which is a much larger market than equities, and therefore a bigger part of your capital market wealth, has been smashed.

What happens whenever the $USD collapses is simple to say: American consumers are badly hurt and exporters are helped. This seems to be the Bush Administration plan " to get the consumer to pay for their jobs.

If that's the case, why doesn't the Administration just come out and say it? Why doesn't the Administration just say that the American consumer is helping the Saudi oil sheiks, the Japanese and Korean exporters like Toyota and Hyundai (with U.S. operations), and the billions of consumers of Japan, China, India, Russia, and so forth, make ends meet at the end of their month.

I mean talk about carrying the world on your back.

You know, you think the Administration would get it. But for the past two business days, the TV has been just full of b.s. from the President and his Administration, pointing Americans to jobs and other meaningless data. Meanwhile, along with a plunging bond market and USD, the public polls for the President and the Congress are at historic lows for U.S. leaders.

Americans are mad as hell right now. They don't want to see Crude Oil at $100 a barrel or Gold at $1,000 an ounce. They do want their bonds back at par. And, they don't want to be paying for the improved lifestyles of the rest of the world.

They're rightfully thinking about themselves and their children today. And why not? They're working pretty hard to pay their bills, while they wonder how it is that employees like McKinnell and Grasso could be paid $100 million dollars for a salaried job that thousands of others could do just as well.

And this time, yet another war (as in potentially Iran) started by a member of the Bush family is going to be the last straw. The American people are fair; but they can only be pushed so far.

As I see it anyway, looking at America from my window across Lake Ontario on a clear day.

Global Market Summary

International Equities: The equity market ETF's for Japan (EWJ +4.1 pct) and UK (EWU +3.0 pct) were strong, but the Weekly RSI's (79.0 and 87.7 respectively) are very elevated. EWJ's RSI could possibly make it to 85; the last time EWU hit 90 (Nov-04, it took almost a year to recover). The price of Canada's EWC was up +1.6 pct due to the mid-Thurs rally in oil.

U.S. Equities : Nine of 10 ETF's and 25 of the Dow 30 up. You think we had a good week? Actually we had a good two days " Thurs and Fri. A few boys from Texas got their Rangers to work hard, and that's what happens. The Rangers btw are the President's backroom state leaders who pull the strings for him. He also had his central banker friends in UK and Europe helping when they froze rates early Thursday " hoping incorrectly the $USD would stop crashing. The world doesn't want to see a dispirited U.S. consumer. They also want a strong Dollar to help their own exporters and tourism industries.

Dow 30 : 23 up and 7 down. Mon-Wed was down, but Thurs-Fri was a remarkable recovery/rally. Can't keep a ‘Snow'man down, and how about that one on one with Bush and Kudlow? The influential Rangers closed the week real strong " but can they go the distance?

U.S. Sector ETFs: 9 up and 1 down (XLB best; IYH worst)
First segment: most influenced by commodities, forex and capex spending
10: Energy (XLE): #3 (+3.0 pct); mid-Thurs oil bounce saved the week
15: Basic Materials (XLB): #1 (+3.4 pct); copper, copper, copper
20: Industrials (XLI): #2 (+3.3 pct); boing, boing, Boeing, CAT
Second segment: most influenced by consumer spending and economic growth
25: Cons. Discretionary (XLY): #5 (+1.5 pct); WMT was up +4.9 pct
30: Cons. Staples (XLP): #7 (+1.0 pct); PG from #3 to #30
35: Healthcare (IYH): #10 (-0.6 pct); traders don't like politicians
Third segment: most influenced by interest rates and general economic health
40: Financial (XLF): #8 (+0.6 pct); Bush saved it Fri (+1.4 pct)
45: Tech (SMH chips): #6 (+1.1 pct); HPQ (+4.3 pct)
50: Telecom Services (IYZ): #9 (+0.5 pct); +12cts " all Friday
55: Utilities (XLU): #4 (+2.8 pct); +2.3 pct Friday!

Bonds: Bonds kept falling, which surprised me. I really thought more traders actually believed the ‘no inflation' stories from Wall Street and the White House. Bonds rise with deflation and fall with inflation, and they've been crashing since last summer. Meanwhile the Administration and Wall Street say "no inflation". This is a matter of a broken trust.

Commodities: A week ago we had a short break in the "same old" rallies. I said "Everybody needs relief". This week, it was the "same old" rally (+0.6 pct) although how long can the Metal Men zap the copper shorts?

Oil & Gas: Down again this week. $WTIC down -2.1 pct to 70.35 " on its way to 67 (according to my crystal ball on a sunny day)

Gold: A week ago I wrote: "A veritable war zone between the Little People and the Fed; this week the slight edge went to the Fed, actually. Next week will be interesting." This week it was hooray (not to Hooha, but to the Little People): $GOLD up +4.4 pct (+$28.66)

Goldminers: This week I stood in front of a speeding train (of my making); and got ran over. If I didn't have so many Little People to protect, I'd still be alive. XGD (Toronto miners) up +4.3 pct; $XAU (Philly miners) up +2.4 pct. When is that GDM U.S. miner ETF coming out anyway? Eight and a half weeks ago, the Lady in Charge told me to tell my People it would be within days! But who's counting anyway; 2, 3, 4.

Forex: A week ago I wrote: "The $USD continues to plummet and the Euro rally strongly, (breaking out of a reverse head-and-shoulders chart pattern) which is what happens when traders and foreign central bankers wake up to what really is going on in Washington " i.e., Bernanke talking nice while discussing the future of rates, but quietly reflating in the background to try to hold the USD from outright collapse, while Precious Metals are re-loading for the rest of their quarter-century moon shot." Same old this week.

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Sector ETF:

How many times on Friday did I hear from CNBC that this was a Financials-led rally? NOT. The Financials rallied Friday, but there was a reason for that. The rest of the week, they tanked.

If these CNBC "personalities" keep talking like they work for the Administration, they should just move the cameras to Washington.

But, no problem mon; just remember to sing along:

There ain't no Fed big enough.. Ain't no war that's bad enough.. No data rigged enough.. To keep the Little People down, babe

For the U.S. equity market, as you know, I study it top down by sector. Here is the weekly performance of my favorite ten Sector Index Funds. The table is sorted by price performance Week over Week (W/W), i.e. 1W%N.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
XLB	34.64	0.24	0.70%	3.40%	0.70%	3.96%	12.03%	11.45%	24.38%	20.82%
XLI	35.68	0.35	0.99%	3.33%	2.26%	4.57%	12.80%	13.49%	18.58%	20.99%
XLE	58.86	0.68	1.17%	3.01%	-1.47%	4.27%	11.69%	6.59%	18.89%	42.79%
XLU	32.18	0.72	2.29%	2.75%	2.98%	3.44%	0.56%	1.64%	4.14%	7.66%
XLY	34.61	0.40	1.17%	1.53%	2.79%	1.73%	4.88%	4.44%	6.36%	8.80%
SMH	38.06	0.31	0.82%	1.09%	1.71%	0.95%	0.37%	2.59%	7.85%	19.69%
XLP	24.06	0.24	1.01%	0.97%	2.73%	1.86%	2.65%	3.71%	3.80%	3.84%
XLF	34.16	0.48	1.43%	0.59%	3.14%	3.86%	6.09%	8.17%	11.52%	17.96%
IYZ	25.68	0.12	0.47%	0.47%	1.42%	-1.15%	11.80%	7.94%	10.64%	13.33%
IYH	61.47	0.70	1.15%	-0.55%	-0.95%	-2.35%	-3.39%	-3.27%	0.54%	0.21%

You can do this table yourself by entering the following string into the "Summaries" window at www.investertech, and then clicking on the link for Performance.

XLE XLB XLI XLY XLP IYH XLF SMH IYZ XLU

I think it's important to look at this 60-minute data across the U.S. market spectrum and check the ups and downs with the economic data. For example this week there was the decision by ECB and BoE on Thursday morning to do nothing on rates. That pleased the Americans who were thinking that any rate hike would have to be matched. Then on Friday morning the U.S. Jobs Report was manufactured 'just right', as these Goldilocks idiots like to say, " falling jobs (good for lowering Fed rates) and rising wage pressures (good for commodities).

Talk about having your cake and eating it too.

Just look at the Hourly data charts, which shows the moon shot on Thurs and Fri.

To review the Econ Week, go to the Link at Econoday.

10 (energy: XLE)

15 (basic materials: XLB)

20 (industrial: XLI)

25 (consumer discretionary: XLY)

30 (consumer staples: XLP)

35 (healthcare: IYH)

40 (financial: XLF)

45 (technology, semiconductor: SMH)

50 (telecom: IYZ)

55 (utilities: XLU)

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Sector 10 (energy: XLE, IYE, VDE, OIH, PBW and IXC)

Here's the XLE Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

After falling to #10 (last) after a terrific string of 1's and 2's, the Energy sector ETF (XLE) recovered to #3 best performer. Note the action from mid-day Thurs when all the oil bourse and U.N. resolution nonsense started coming out about Iran.

Still, I continue to move from being over-weighted to being market-weighted in energy " but I'll be back soon to being over-weighted (Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela, Bolivia, driving season, hurricane season, and the ?? possibility of doing Iran).

This week, XLE was up +3.01 pct to 58.86. But $WTIC (near futures for the Light Sweet Crude Oil) closed at $70.35, down almost -8.0 pct in two weeks. I'm afraid we'll see 67 oil before 77.

XLE Weekly data:

XLE Daily data:

XLE Hourly data:

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Sector 15 (basic materials: IYM, XLB, IGE and VAW)

The Basic Materials sector ETF (XLB) was back on top; el supreme, #1 " up +3.40 pct to 34.64. Why? Copper, copper, copper; up +8.4 pct W/W and +6.6 pct on Friday alone.

I seem to have been wrong on Alcoa (NYSE: AA); it came back +3.9 pct W/W. But that's because of the copper replacement thing " and copper is getting scary.

As I say: "The big Wall Street firms are continuing to raise their price targets on the Basic Materials, particularly the metals. The big miners are in the sweet spot of their long-term earnings cycle." As evidence, how about those Barrick earnings?

Cara 100: GICS 15 Barrick Gold Corp (ABX) (ABX) Financials

Here's the XLB Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLB Weekly data:

XLB Daily data:

XLB Hourly data:

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Sector 20 (industrial: IYJ, XLI, VIS, and IYT)

The ETF for the Industrials and Transport sector, aka capital goods producers, (XLI) was up +3.33 pct W/W to close at 35.68, #2 out of 10.

btw, if a company produces steel or aluminum, it is a producer of Basic Materials (sector 15), but if those materials are used in the manufacture of goods like planes and missiles (like Boeing [NYSE: BA] and Honeywell [NYSE: HON]) or earth-moving and mining equipment (like Caterpillar [NYSE: CAT]), those companies are part of the Industrial capital goods (sector 20) sector classification of the S&P Global Industry Classification System.

What a difference a week makes: a week ago "BA (loser #3), CAT (loser #5), HON (loser #6), and UTX (loser #7), were Dow 30 worst performers: -- but this week BA (#1), CAT (#2), and HON (#7) were Dow 30 leaders.

These are also called Friends of the Administration.

Last week, I noted: "with these industrial conglomerates... late in this business cycle, these stocks will probably hang in better than most."

Here's the XLI Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLI Weekly data:

XLI Daily data:

XLI Hourly data:

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Sector 25 (consumer discretionary: XLY, IYC and VCR)

The Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) was up +1.53 pct W/W, to close at 34.61.

Last week I wrote: "I still believe that this sector, along with consumer staples and (consumer) healthcare and telco will suffer from a terminating housing boom (as wealth effect dries up). Higher mortgage costs, and costs of driving to and from work and shopping, and all the other rising costs (CPI and non-CPI) add up to financial hardship for many people."

I was wrong on the wage increase thing if the Friday U.S. Jobs Report is accurate (+3.9 pct wage growth Y/Y).

But, no matter: Staples was #7 and Healthcare #10 this week " not that a week here or there means much to Hooha. LOL

Here's the XLY Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLY Weekly data:

XLY Daily data:

XLY Hourly data:

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Sector 30 (consumer staples: XLP, VDC, RTH and IYK)

The Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP) was up +0.97 pct W/W, to close at 24.01.

It was down until the President started dancing on Friday.

Value Line gave us KO and MO this week. Thank you.

Here's the XLP Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLP Weekly data:

XLP Daily data:

XLP Hourly data:

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Sector 35 (healthcare: IYH, XLV, VHT, IXJ, and IBB)

The healthcare ETF (IYH) was down -0.55 pct W/W to close at 61.47 " good for #10 out of 10.

If Pfizer's (NYSE: PFE) Hank McKinnell can get an annual pay package of $83 million or $100 million, then why would the Little People want to support him.

McKinnell deserves that kind of money the day his chauffeur gets paid a million.

I continue to ask, where is the check and balance on these board compensation committees?

Another problem here is that Congress is in everybody's bad books for twin deficits and all, so they can only take so many photo ops calling CL prices an outrage, which means they have to put in some time restructuring medicare. And you know what a pandora's box that one is.

Here's the IYH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYH Weekly data:

IYH Daily data:

IYH Hourly data:

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Sector 40 (financial: IYG, IYF, XLF, VFH, IXG, VNQ, RWR, IYR, and ICF)

The Financial sector ETF (XLF) was down this week from 33.96 to 33.68. Unfortunately, the week didn't end Thursday. So just to give Kudlow and Pisani something more to lie about, the President and the ‘Snow'man danced their way through Friday. Ergo: XLF ended at 34.16.

I should never, never, have introduced those guys to Lee Ann Womack.

Bonds are crashing. US. Dollars are falling from helicopters. Gold's on a moon shot. And bank stocks are going up? I don't get it, man.

Anyway, just to settle a score, Pisani. XLF was rally leader #8 out of ten. And was down on hands and knee(pad)s until the White House did their thing.

Here's the XLF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLF Weekly data:

XLF Daily data:

XLF Hourly data:

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Sector 45 (technology: IGM, IGV, IGW, XLK, VGT, IYW, IGN, IXN, MTK and SMH)

The semi-conductor ETF (SMH) was up +1.09 pct W/W to close at 38.06.

INTC was down -2.4 pct W/W (Dow #29), which, with chips up +1.1 pct, suggests that Wall Street no longer considers it a semiconductor company. Maybe they're calling it a bank now -- inteller.

Here's the SMH Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

SMH Weekly data:

SMH Daily data:

SMH Hourly data:

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Sector 50 (telecom: IYZ, VOX and IXP)

The Telco sector ETF (IYZ) was up +0.47 pct (or 12 cents) W/W, which is not surprising because IYZ was up +0.47 pct (or 12 cents) Friday. Dibs on that job. Work one day and get paid for the week.

IYZ closed at 25.68.

A week ago I wrote: "This move was all about the possible relief in servicing debt, as the big telco's have issued a gazillion bonds, and if Bernanke can tell Congress lies about interest rate direction, then telco shareholders can play with themselves too. For a while anyway; I say that as soon as rates start to pick up steam again, these stocks are going in reverse."

Have a look at bonds on Friday morning. Pop went the weasel " and so did IYZ.

Now I'm going to teach the Little People something about money. When the Treasury pays out, bond prices fall, and when the Treasury gooses those bonds it means they were taking in (thank you Ben).

Look at the snapshot below. Go to the Pay-out Day (first day of the month, when the distribution is made) for the SHY (Lehman 1-3 year Treasury notes). You see the gap down. That's the amount the Fed took out to pay the bondholders. For proof, go to Yahoo historical prices, and look at the amount of the distribution and the date, and compare it to the same day price drop on the Daily data chart for Shy:

Now for SHY, go to Friday May 5 (the Hourly data chart). That 5 cent pop is the amount Bernanke put back in. A little here (SHY), a little there (IEF), and there (TLT), these nickels start adding up, you know.

Pretty soon you got Pisani spreading the word on the NYSE Floor; psst! .. psst!

Ah, it's your money anyway... until the Chinese get their hands on it.

Here's the IYZ Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

IYZ Weekly data:

IYZ Daily data:

IYZ Hourly data:

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Sector 55 (utilities: IDU, XLU, and VPU)

The Utilities ETF (XLU) closed at 32.18, up +2.75 pct this week. That's smoking the right stuff. Wow.

Last week I called this a mere bounce. But on second thought, maybe there is something getting started here. The Daily data chart will show the rally didn't start yesterday (like some I know. No, XLU started to rally on April 18, which is 14 sessions, and the price has popped +6.5 pct.

And I was caught joking that these utilities are not sitting on gold (just debt), but look at Newmont (NYSE: NEM) over the same time " up all of 36 cents or +0.64 pct, and as ridiculous as the gold bullion has been, GLD is up +11.3 pct.

You know, Utilities could be second favorite at today's Kentucky Derby. NOT.

But, keep an eye on it. This move could be signally a change in bonds (for the better).

Here's the XLU Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

XLU Weekly data:

XLU Daily data:

XLU Hourly data:

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Bonds:

The Fed was in buying toilet paper (U.S. Treasury paper) from the Money Center Banks again on Friday morning, right before the ‘Snow'man got to charm his way around the studios of Financial Entertainment TV following his Jobs Report, and shortly before the President was out on the town with Kudlow.

I don't get that picture. Larry doesn't dance. It's kind of hard doing the Texas One-Step.

A week ago I wrote: "Anyway, turn to the 10-year Treasury Note Index, and watch the yield plummet on Thursday morning (27th)." You see I had to be explicit with the date because my crystal ball was telling a week ago that we were going to be seeing the ‘same old, same old'.

So now I repeat myself (almost). Anyway, turn to the 10-year Treasury Note Index, and watch the yield plummet on Friday morning (5th).

Are you starting to get it?

Weekly data charts:

Daily data charts:

Hourly data charts:

US Treasury Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
3 Month	4.68	4.66	4.64	4.54
6 Month	4.79	4.80	4.72	4.64
2 Year	4.92	4.96	4.86	4.80
3 Year	4.94	4.98	4.87	4.79
5 Year	4.97	5.03	4.91	4.79
10 Year	5.10	5.15	5.06	4.84
30 Year	5.18	5.24	5.16	4.90

Municipal Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	3.66	3.66	3.61	3.53
2yr AAA	3.64	3.65	3.63	3.53
2yr A	3.62	3.69	3.61	3.60
5yr AAA	3.74	3.76	3.73	3.65
5yr AA	3.74	3.77	3.73	3.68
5yr A	3.77	3.78	3.75	3.75
10yr AAA	4.07	4.07	4.03	3.96
10yr AA	4.05	4.05	4.01	3.95
10yr A	4.10	4.10	4.12	4.13
20yr AAA	4.40	4.41	4.34	4.30
20yr AA	4.40	4.41	4.35	4.29
20yr A	4.55	4.55	4.51	4.42

Corporate Bonds

Maturity	Yield	Yesterday	Last Week	Last Month
2yr AA	5.31	5.36	5.25	5.22
2yr A	5.41	5.46	5.32	5.30
5yr AAA	5.48	5.52	5.37	5.30
5yr AA	5.54	5.58	5.49	5.39
5yr A	5.62	5.68	5.57	5.47
10yr AAA	5.85	5.96	5.76	5.69
10yr AA	5.95	6.00	5.89	5.71
10yr A	5.95	6.00	5.92	5.72
20yr AAA	6.20	6.21	6.11	5.97
20yr AA	6.49	6.54	6.47	6.26
20yr A	6.37	6.37	6.40	6.24

Interest rates and bond yields.

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The 30-year T-Bond yield lifted from 5.16 to 5.18 pct this week, and the 10-year bond, went from a 5.06 pct yield to 5.10. So the beat goes on.

A week ago I wrote: "I'd point out that there was quite a high close in the TLT and AGG on Friday. Let's see if this was a head fake for Monday. And the SHY (1-3 year bonds) rallied through Thurs-Fri along with JPM for the same reason). Let's see what happens to the 2-year yields (prices) on Monday (May 1)?"

Here's the Lehman 1-3 year Treasury bond (SHY) chart. Look at Monday May 1.

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US Bond Funds -- Monthly Data Charts

Look at these bonds crash since last summer, which was the point the Fed and Treasury started to reflate (as seen by M3 money supply expansion), without telling the Little People. So the bankers know, but the Little People don't. Do you get my drift?

Why is that a President spends $100 million to get elected to a $200,000 a year job? You see, in our system, not only do bankers get to print the money, but they know when it's the best time to buy and sell it -- and it's all tied back to politics.

SHY Monthly data series chart:

IEF Monthly data series chart:

TLT Monthly data series chart:

AGG Monthly data series chart:

LQD Monthly data series chart:

TIP Monthly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Weekly Data Charts

SHY Weekly data series chart:

IEF Weekly data series chart:

TLT Weekly data series chart:

AGG Weekly data series chart:

LQD Weekly data series chart:

TIP Weekly data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Daily Data Charts

SHY Daily data series chart:

IEF Daily data series chart:

TLT Daily data series chart:

AGG Daily data series chart:

LQD Daily data series chart:

TIP Daily data series chart:

US Bond Funds -- Hourly Data Charts

SHY Hourly data series chart:

IEF Hourly data series chart:

TLT Hourly data series chart:

AGG Hourly data series chart:

LQD Hourly data series chart:

TIP Hourly data series chart:

Consumer Finance -USA -- Weekly Data Charts

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Consumer Finance -USA -- Daily Data Charts

Consumer Finance -USA -- Hourly Data Charts

Before we leave these consumer-related interest-sensitive securities, let me say that without Friday's Fed action, all these stocks would have been down on the week.

A week ago, I wrote: "Freddie Mac made quite a move Wed, and again at the open Thurs. I doubt well see any follow through this week." Well, on Monday, Freddie got whacked, and if it weren't for the $2 bone thrown by Bernanke to this dog at Friday's open, FRE would have closed down a buck on the week, instead of up 89 cents.

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Commodities:

The $CRB index rally continued from the previous Friday, going up this week +0.58 pct to 351.92.

But note the save on Friday. $CRB was also up +0.58 pct on Friday, which means the rest of the week was flat.

I believe the short-term up trend is kaput. Time for a breather.

Sell in May and go away; but not too far because hurricanes and cars on the highway return in June.

Weekly CRB Commodities Index:

Daily CRB Commodities Index:

A week ago, following a humungous rally for Crude oil futures, the near contracts known as $WTIC dropped -5.92 pct W/W to close at 70.72. This week, $WTIC dropped again to 70.35. I think it's one step down to 67, then a summer rally, then down to 55-60, before moving to a new record high.

A week ago I also wrote: "Just think, on Monday this week $WTIC hit a new long-cycle peak of 75.35. So consolidation is needed. I'm glad this trend reversal is happening, but the pull-back probably will be short-lived. I think we'll see $80 oil before the bear sets in."

I don't think that bear is coming as soon as the broad equity market bear.

Weekly Crude Oil:

Daily Crude Oil:

Yes, I still think that the long-term play in the Alberta oil sands is a good one. After a significant pull-back, the Canadian oil sands stocks will have another big run.

Integrated Oil & Gas - Canada

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production -Canada

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Gold:

A week ago I wrote: "At mid-day Monday I took a stand regarding what I perceived as the Fed trying to pull off a miracle by divine intervention for an Administration in deep doo-doo. On principle, I ranted about the stupidity of people (Bernanke) who think they are bigger than the market. I was miffed, and said "There ain't no Fed big enough; Anyway, this is a marvellous opportunity to jump into precious metals." My published charts at that moment showed spot Gold at $625.60 and Silver at $12.23. Fortunately, the week closed with spot Gold at $652.40, up $26.80 (+4.3 pct), and Silver at $13.67, up $1.44 (+11.8 pct). "

This week, $GOLD was up again, $28.66 (+4.38 pct) W/W to close at 682.57 and silver was up +1.7 pct " so that's really something I advised you on.

Just 3 years ago this month, $GOLD was $340 (50 pct today's price). I have made some stunning calls along the way " and the trend is still up (with no signs of a break), so there is no call to stand in front of a runaway train " but I have to advise extreme caution for the near term.

Long-term, gold is probably going to $1,000, but there are always a few steps back along the way. We might be in for one soon. If you want to hold your position for the long term, you might consider buying short-term puts against it, for protection.

I happen to think Gold got an extra spark from the new Silver ETF (AMEX: SLV) and by the stunning performance of Copper. These three metals are often discovered in the same ore, particularly copper-gold in porphyry (igneous rock) deposits that have to be hard-rock mined.

Weekly Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Gold EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Gold Bullion index.

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$SILVER closed up +1.67 pct W/W at 13.98, but was down a bit on Friday.

There is support at $13.55 and again at about $13.00, but technicians will not believe the down-force of selling, once it hits, caused by the SLV.

What goes up fast, usually comes down even faster. But for the first time, $SILVER is now monetized as an ETF. Selling and short-selling could be brutal. I don't want newbies to get scared off because the next rally for silver will likely take it to $18.

This is the time that nervous nellies make mistakes, and dumb traders make even bigger ones. So you might want to buy a put on your SLV. As you can see, many of the silver miners have pulled back already.

Interestingly, they may even rally a bit before crapping out. But the promoters need a short rest.

A week ago, I wrote: "I still say we're on our way back to $15, then to $18. I think the Fed can no longer hide the truth about money supply, and the pickle it's in regarding interest rates and the housing market."

Weekly Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Silver EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Silver Bullion index.

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$PLAT was up +1.15 pct W/W to 1176.70, but was down -0.87 pct on Friday.

No further comment. The precious metals complex, and copper, is in the same situation " (perhaps much) higher long term, but dubious short term.

Weekly Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Platinum EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Platinum metal index.

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This week, $PALL gained +0.91 pct W/W, closing Friday at 382.07, but that was after dropping -0.56 pct on Friday.

A week ago I wrote: "Since on the prior Friday $PALL got SMASHED, then maybe this week was just a mild recovery bounce."

I am not hopeful, as in the whole precious metals group, for short-term strength here. I sense that the speculative fever may chill a bit.

Weekly Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Palladium EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Palladium metal index.

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$COPPER was YET YET YET again the talk of the week. Each week I just add another YET. A week ago, "the contracts reached a new all-time INTRA-WEEK high of $334.55 on Thurs, but then sold off violently. Still, $COPPER closed up +$8.10 or +2.60 pct W/W. "

This week, $COPPER was up $26.90 to $348.95, which happens to be a gain THIS WEEK of +8.35 pct. You'd think the stuff was gold.

And if you are short, as we discussed months ago, you'd wish this was gold.

Two Three weeks ago I wrote: "At this point, cease listening to fundamental analysts. This is (all about) pure trading." By that I mean that somewhere in the world there are shorts that are being broken. I hope your fund, or hedge fund, isn't one of them.

At the start of 2006 " like 4 months ago -- $COPPER contracts were $200 and many Wall Street analysts were mocking it. These people had considered the implications of China/India economic expansion; they just hadn't thought about it enough.

Weekly Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

Daily Copper EOD Continuous Contract Index:

This interactive chart shows the recent trading for the Copper metal index.

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To spot the moves in precious metal miners, you will have to monitor the individual stock charts, as follows:

AAUK NEM ABX AU GFI GG HMY GLG KGC BVN
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

MDG LIHRY AEM BGO IAG EGO PAAS GOLD CDE GRS
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

CBJ SSRI RGLD SIL NG KRY HL TSE_HRG TSE_GUY TSE_AGI
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

NXG GSS MNG DROOY MFN RNO RANGY MRB CLG GRZ
15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

Here are the key Silver miners and the SLV ETF:

SLV SIL CDE HL PAAS SSRI SLW WTZ MGN

15-minute data
60-minute data
Daily data
Weekly data

And for the Silver Crazies, here is your favorite link:

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This week the U.S.-listed goldminers index ($XAU) was up +2.39 pct to close at 161.89. Yes, I did say that "the junior promoters are calling this a ‘work in progress'." But, you do know the promoters are my friends.

Here are the Weekly and Daily Data charts of the indexes:

Weekly U.S. Goldminers Index:

Daily U.S. Goldminers Index:

The Toronto Exchange-listed goldminers ETF (XGD) was up +4.25 pct W/W to 86.26.

You know I would absolutely love to party right through PDAC 2007, but when you get to a certain age you learn to sit out a couple dances.

Here are the Weekly and Daily data charts for the TSX Goldshares (XGD) index:

XGD Weekly data:

XGD Daily data:

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Forex:

Every week is the same old story for the $USD. Down, down, down.

The $USD has plunged from 89.86 to 85.17 in 17 trading sessions. That's a huge drop of -4.7 pct.

American's are getting poorer (and sicker) by the day, as the world turns... and gets richer. Dr. Bernanke is no Doctor.

And the ‘Snow'man is no Master of the Treasury.

Weekly U.S. Dollar Index:

Daily U.S. U.S. Dollar Index:

As the $USD dropped -1.09 pct W/W to 85.17, the Euro (priced in USD) was up sharply again, closing at 127.38, up +0.91 pct. Probably on its way to 130+.

"What the Americans are doing of course, is shifting the solution to European bankers who now have to cut rates to keep their economy afloat. Then, and only then, can Bernanke move to cut U.S. rates." I wrote that a week ago. This week Bank of England and the European Bank didn't drop them, but they paused in raising rates.

That takes some heat off Bernanke this week. He might even pause.

Can't you just hear the applause and screaming from the White House?

Can you hear Dow 11,800? Oh no! Not another Presidential press conference and tour of Financial Entertainment TV!

Yes I did write: "And by then, Gold could be $1,000, and some of those Dollar Store mining stocks I referred to will be in the $5 to $10 Department Store shelves. Many will still be junk of course, but that's what happens when currencies get "rebalanced";The key here is that a two-year technical reverse head and shoulders formation has broken out with strength in the Euro. This is a powerful indicator to traders who follow such things."

Weekly Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

Daily Euro Dollar Index, priced in USD:

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International Equities:

The equity market ETF's for Japan (EWJ +4.1 pct) and UK (EWU +3.0 pct) were incredibly strong, but the Weekly RSI's (79.0 and 87.7 respectively) are very elevated, so caution is advised.

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Japanese equity market ETF: EWJ

The Japanese equity market ETF (EWJ, priced in USD), was up +4.12 pct W/W to 15.41. Yes, "the Nikkei Dow remains in a strong primary up-trend".

The Weekly data RSI is still showing negative divergence. The Weekly RSI for EWJ (at 79.0) could however possibly make it to 85.

Here is the Japanese (EWJ) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWJ Weekly data:

EWJ Daily data:

EWJ Hourly data:

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U.K. equity market ETF: EWU

Same old: (From a week ago) "The EWU (U.K. equity market ETF that trades in the U.S. in USD) was up sharply again. This week EWU was up +1.23 pct (it was +3.37 pct a week ago) W/W to 21.45. That's confirmation of a strong primary market bull trend."

EWU jumped +3.03 pct W/W to 22.10. So the bull romps.

But, the Weekly RSI for EWU (87.7) is mind-boggling. The last time EWU hit 90 (Nov-04, it took almost a year to recover).

Here is the United Kingdom (EWU) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWU Weekly data:

EWU Daily data:

EWU Hourly data:

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Canadian equity market ETF: EWC

The EWC (Canada's equity market ETF that trades in the U.S. in USD) was up +1.57 pct to 25.25.

A week ago, I wrote: "The (bull) move that was happening here has paused because of weakness this week in the oils." That continued until mid-Thursday, when oils lifted again.

Here is the Canadian (EWC) equity market ETF Weekly, Daily and Hourly data charts:

EWC Weekly data:

EWC Daily data:

EWC Hourly data:

(Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore)

(U.K., Germany, France, Italy)

(Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).

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U.S. Equities:

A week ago, the U.S. equity market was dead. I fell asleep writing you the story. And it was dead this week until all heck broke out on Thursday morning.

You see, the Brit and Euro bankers paused " that was the moment that the world heard Bernanke sigh. Oh man, he had been wondering why he took the job. But friends in high places were all the time polishing up their dancing shoes.

And when they told Ben to fire up those helicopters, pulling the Dino Kos ignition switch, he must have figured that life at the Fed has a few good times too.

And with all that new found money Kos dropped on Wall Street buying up Toilet Paper (I mean Treasury Paper) " they in turn sent bond and interest-sensitive equity prices soaring. Party time on Wall Street.

Year-end bonuses to follow.

Here is the Monthly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Weekly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Daily data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

Here is the Hourly data chart of the Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, Dow30, and Russell 2000 (small cap) indexes.

The following table shows the weekly price performance of the Dow 30 stocks, which I sorted by 1-week price change. There were 23 Dow stocks up, and 7 down on the week. You might say it was a great day Friday.

But when do we get to Freedom Day " you know that line on the calendar when the Little People get finished paying taxes for all this stuff. Is it any wonder JPM was up +6.8 pct a week ago -- and C up +4.04 pct?

Yes, a week ago. Can I be more blunt? I use a crystal ball; they use the telephone.

Friends in high places.

Symbol	Close	1Day Change	1Day %Change	1W %Change	2W %Change	4W %Change	YTD %Change	3M %Change	6M %Change	12M %Change
BA	88.47	1.83	2.11%	6.02%	2.32%	10.84%	25.77%	24.83%	35.52%	48.09%
CAT	79.98	1.17	1.48%	5.60%	2.71%	5.72%	38.37%	17.39%	49.36%	78.05%
WMT	47.25	0.85	1.83%	4.93%	3.12%	1.48%	2.21%	3.87%	-0.92%	-2.72%
HPQ	33.87	0.58	1.74%	4.31%	2.76%	-0.67%	17.73%	10.83%	18.72%	61.83%
DIS	29.09	0.69	2.43%	4.04%	7.66%	5.09%	19.22%	16.31%	17.25%	8.91%
AA	35.10	0.62	1.80%	3.91%	-0.82%	9.14%	17.39%	14.78%	39.45%	19.59%
HON	44.12	0.00	0.00%	3.81%	1.31%	2.96%	17.78%	12.46%	22.90%	25.45%
HD	41.29	1.03	2.56%	3.41%	2.51%	-2.02%	0.12%	3.69%	-0.22%	12.05%
UTX	64.91	1.14	1.79%	3.34%	1.07%	11.47%	14.82%	13.52%	25.72%	26.80%
JPM	46.65	0.96	2.10%	2.80%	9.76%	10.31%	16.07%	18.01%	25.03%	29.94%
DD	45.15	0.37	0.83%	2.38%	1.21%	4.51%	4.85%	16.07%	4.25%	-6.35%
MMM	87.30	0.83	0.96%	2.19%	2.63%	7.27%	10.35%	22.78%	16.20%	12.69%
MCD	35.21	0.36	1.03%	1.85%	1.76%	1.76%	5.04%	-2.11%	5.32%	17.60%
KO	42.71	0.63	1.50%	1.79%	2.05%	2.45%	4.43%	4.48%	0.97%	-3.26%
GE	35.16	0.36	1.03%	1.65%	3.50%	2.00%	-0.59%	7.03%	3.35%	-1.92%
XOM	64.00	0.69	1.09%	1.46%	-1.54%	3.08%	9.46%	4.25%	10.54%	10.82%
GM	23.18	0.60	2.66%	1.31%	6.38%	18.57%	22.65%	0.13%	-13.41%	-24.89%
IBM	83.28	0.85	1.03%	1.14%	1.98%	-0.63%	1.49%	4.14%	0.34%	10.30%
MO	73.81	0.16	0.22%	0.89%	4.64%	4.75%	-1.56%	2.94%	-0.30%	10.44%
C	50.37	0.99	2.00%	0.84%	4.92%	5.27%	2.19%	11.78%	10.46%	7.44%
PFE	25.40	0.18	0.71%	0.28%	2.13%	1.24%	6.81%	0.47%	14.11%	-8.80%
MRK	34.48	0.17	0.50%	0.17%	-0.75%	-1.03%	5.28%	0.26%	18.00%	-0.78%
JNJ	58.70	0.44	0.76%	0.15%	0.57%	0.34%	-4.75%	2.30%	-3.58%	-14.32%
VZ	33.02	0.22	0.67%	-0.03%	1.54%	-1.96%	8.69%	4.46%	6.86%	-3.73%
AXP	53.75	1.00	1.90%	-0.11%	2.87%	2.83%	2.23%	2.71%	8.81%	1.07%
AIG	65.14	0.16	0.25%	-0.17%	2.04%	-0.46%	-6.43%	-0.32%	-1.29%	20.81%
T	25.97	0.05	0.19%	-0.92%	2.45%	-1.81%	5.10%	-3.06%	9.76%	9.67%
MSFT	23.80	0.36	1.54%	-1.45%	-12.34%	-13.64%	-11.33%	-13.58%	-10.73%	-5.67%
INTC	19.51	0.17	0.88%	-2.35%	2.36%	0.67%	-23.70%	-5.93%	-18.67%	-19.58%
PG	55.73	-0.13	-0.23%	-4.26%	-1.08%	-3.08%	-5.19%	-6.62%	-0.34%	1.73%

The Dow 30 winners this past week:
BA, up +6.02-pct; a State Street favorite; what can I say?
CAT, up +5.60-pct; up with strength in Gold, since miners like CAT
WMT, up +4.93-pct; maybe if wages did go +3.9 pct Y/Y;
HPQ, up +4.31-pct; west coast bankers and Deutsche Bank love it
DIS, up +4.04-pct; +3.48-pct last week too; a Little People wages thing?

The (only) Dow 30 losers this past week:
PG, down -4.26-pct; traders loved it a week ago, while defensive
INTC, down -2.35-pct; was over-bought a week ago, hahaha
MSFT, down -1.45; more pain than I thought
T, down -0.92 pct; even VZ made the loser's list
AIG, down -0.17-pct; without Ben, would have been worse
AXP, down -0.11-pct; the Prince must have been enroute Omaha
VZ, down -0.03-pc; no big deal; this week

Here are the links to interactive Dow charts from Investertech.com that I broke into groups of ten, which you can add technical indicators for as well. (list one) (list two) (list three)

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Here are the latest Value Line Reports on Dow 30 stocks KO and MO, or is it MO and KO? These are sector 30 staples because nicotine, caffeine, cocaine; no, I won't go there.

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(KO) (KO) Financials (Here is the May 5 Value Line report on KO: next one is due Aug.4)

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(MO) (MO) Financials (Here is the May 5 Value Line report on MO: next one is due Aug. 4)

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Wrap up:

Be kind to me. I could have been golfing this fine Saturday.

BCara@BillCara.com