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May 18, 2006

U.S. retail companies reporting, Thurs., May 18, 2006, 8:08 AM

There will be a spate of earnings reports today from key U.S. based retailers. The earnings are expected to be solid, but the forward guidance less so. How the market handles this news in a face of a broad sell-off in equities will be watched closely.

Here today is the chart to focus on. It is Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT $46.84), which dropped -2.6 pct yesterday to close barely above its 50-Day Moving Average (MA) of $46.59 and its 200-Day MA of $46.31.


003o015.gif

Cara 100 GICS 30 Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) (WMT) Financial Data (Value Line: WMT) Dow 30

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 18, 2006 08:08:00 AM | Category: 25 Cons Discretionary , 30 Consumer Staples

Discourse

Bill , Do you follow chart patterns?
here is a nasdaq chart:


http://globalgold.blogspot.com/2006/05/nasdaq-gold-ratio.html

Posted by: real1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 8:28 AM [link]

Yesterday, I observed an interesting phenomenon - Berkshire Hathaway Class B (BRK/B) shares impersonating a hedge fund. While the U.S. stock market was tanking, BRK/B closed the day up almost 17 points (1 point = 1 USD).

Today, BRK/B is trading up 24 points on a 12 point gain on the DJIA, however, the day is still young.

Finally, can anyone give me their perspective on Carmanah Technologies Corporation (www.carmanah.com) (CMH:TSX) "a Toronto based leading integrator of renewable and energy-efficient technology solutions.")?

I have the stock in play based on my previous life as an electronics engineer and my ongoing fascination with alternative power sources such as our Sun (Solar Energy).

Thanks

("When frightened, the frightened shall run home to quality" - Anonymous)

Posted by: oratier [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 10:09 AM [link]

How much cash does Berkshire have? If it's a significant amount, long only managers may put money there if they're worried.

Posted by: g034 [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 10:40 AM [link]

Reportedly, Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $41 billion in cash minus $5 Bilion of an 80-percent stake in Iscar Ltd. of Israel, and $329 million for a 1-percent stake in British supermarket chain Tesco.

BTW, in my previous posting, I wrote Carmanah Technologies being based in Toronto. In Fact, Carmanah Technologies Corporation is headquartered at the Pacific Technology Centre in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada - my mistake, and no offense meant to the good people of British Columbia.

Thanks

Posted by: oratier [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 11:16 AM [link]

Thanks Bill -- fading WMT is fun!

I don't think consumer discretionary is the right place to be in this cycle.

Posted by: omphalos [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 11:39 AM [link]

Nice move by SHLD. I suppose trimming half my position here is adviseable based on market outlook ?
NBR and PTEN looking very 'cheap' here. Got off the phone with an oil+gas exploration entity in Texas and it seems both NBR and PTEN have huge backlogs on their rigs. Lots of exploration activity taking place in TX right now. Might this be a good time to take a long position in either of NBR or PTEN ?

Posted by: TheAdonis [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 12:17 PM [link]

TYX- Exteme on RSI (weekly and monthly) and now breaking trend?

Posted by: stockman [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 12:27 PM [link]

There is a Mongolian saying, which you probably know, “It is better to see once than hear a thousand times.� This is from an interesting article about IVN:
http://www.mongolia-web.com/content/view/549/2/
Where is Bill today? I need my teacher!

Posted by: ccn [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 12:35 PM [link]

In regards to bonds and risk tolerance- see that section of Grantham letter (page 7- Concusions?). Link posted earlier.


Posted by: stockman [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 12:41 PM [link]

I am about to get my feet wet - dipping into buy a partial position in GLD here. Any technical analysts would like to jump in here with comments? The fact that GLD is down when the USD is up makes me pause.

Posted by: jragusa [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 1:37 PM [link]

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&t=c&w=15&a=2&v=i

This a huge H&S formation with a roughly $680 neckline. Once broken there is a 40 point move south potential. Everybody seems to be working hard at it.

Posted by: Marp [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 2:07 PM [link]

Marp,

In these days of hedge funds, the obvious patterns hardly ever play out though, no?

Posted by: jragusa [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 2:31 PM [link]

We will find out soon enough.

Posted by: Marp [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 3:43 PM [link]

So much for the market 'stabilizing' and all those other cheerful headlines. Nice selloff in the last hour. Dow appears to have broken a upward sloping trendline dating back to November. I call Dow 10500 Naz 2000. Any takers ?

Posted by: TheAdonis [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 4:09 PM [link]

G034 - earlier you wrote:
"How much cash does Berkshire have? If it's a significant amount, long only managers may put money there if they're worried."

I wanted to wait until the end of the trading day to continue this thread on such an interesting quote.

BRK/B closed up 45 points an a -77 point decline on the DJIA. Are you inferring via your quote that some "long managers" prefer to park funds short term in a stock like BRK/B rather than go primarily to cash in a down market. Is this a maneuver commonly used by some mutual fund managers?

I'm a student of the market, This being the case, I'm really fascinated by the thought process of some these "sell siders".

Thanks

("In a down market, cash is always king" - Anonymous")

Posted by: oratier [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 4:40 PM [link]

oratier-

FWIW... 'long only' equity managers have to be long equities, usually their ability to hold cash or buy bonds is limited (by investment policy). So if they decide to 'hunker down' in order to get defensive they may choose to buy lower beta stocks (BRK/B beta .23).

Remember that cash is an option and therefore an advantage to the individual that is not an option for the 'long only manager' and that gives YOU a distinct advantage. The 'other side of the trade' has weaknesses that you can take advantage of.

JMHO

Posted by: stockman [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 8:33 PM [link]

brk

note that brk shares troughed relative to the SPX in 1Q 2000 and peaked relative to the SPX 3Q 2002.

for long only managers it is not absolute returns that count it is RELATIVE (to benchmark) returns.

Posted by: stockman [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 18, 2006 8:48 PM [link]