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May 17, 2006
UBS says metal prices going higher, but trend not sustainable, Wed., May 17, 2006, 8:28 AM
In looking at the state of the commodities market and implications for the base metal miners, the excellent Commodities research team of UBS is concerned about sustainability of present trends. Download UBS file on Base Metal Miners
The report issued from UBS South Africa today is a good read for traders in the base metal miners. UBS has extended their high price targets for the metal commodities into 2007, but they also say that history shows that such an extended price cycle is not likely to last.
This UBS report is good info for traders of BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP), which is a component of the Cara 100.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 17, 2006 08:28:14 AM | Category: 15 Materials
Bill, Interesting report, UBS analysts have obviously put a lot of effort into it.
However they did not include even a basic supply demand analysis for any of the mentioned commodities, hence the forecast is not worth much in my humble opinion.
I think that a cost base analysis have little value under current market condition and UBS predictions regarding commodities were not accurate at all the last few years.
If you can post a supply demand report for base metals I will be very thankful.
Johnson Matthey have done a good job analyzing the PGM (Platinum group metals):
http://cmd-chart.blogspot.com/2006/05/platinum-palladium-rhodium-ruthenium.html
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May 17, 2006 10:34 AM [link]