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May 19, 2006

Today will be a challenge, Fri., May 19, 2006, 7:59 AM

At 10:30am this morning I have to go to see my dentist. Other than his queries about what's happening in the market, I'm not looking forward to the root canal that will follow.

I'll probably return home, take a couple Tylenol 2's, and go to bed. I've had two of these recently: one was excruciating; the other merely painful. O course the ill feeling is entirely that of the freezing coming out.

In a sense, isn't that what's happening in the market too?

Since the end of the last bear market in 4Q02, the owners and managers of capital have been anaesthetized by the sell side. As they sold their products and services in force, their pied pipers have marched our side into slavery.

But we have started to break those shackles. We are starting to see the light. It's called reality. You know: the dilemma of the Fed; the credit balloon; the risk side of derivatives markets; the power of an enlightened society in the emerging nations; and on and on.

Yes, we live in a dysfunctional world. Otherwise, I'd have perfect teeth!

I'm thinking of getting away for a week. I have two books to read.

One is fiction: Paradigm, a novel by Robert Taylor (March 2006). I just love the sub-head on the jacket: "What is tomorrow's Wall Street Journal worth to you today?"

But that's not fiction; I've been writing that for a couple years now, first as the Trader Wizard, and now under my real name.

Next is a non-fiction book: The Hydrogen Economy (August 2003) by Jeremy Rifkin.

The only thing that keeps me glued to my monitors is the need to prepare for the next bull market. You know, the one from 2006 through the 2008 Olympic Games in China.

Oh man, I see that the "Bond Guy" (they called him that, and not the Bond King) will be working CNBC alongside the 'Snow'man. I guess both have screwed up so badly, they need a change.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 19, 2006 07:23:55 AM | Category: Cara re: Cara

Discourse

Spot gold $673 new lows for this correction.
I agree with Bill that in the long run, gold has a lot more upside, but in the short run, I see more of a correction.
Copper appears to be topping, I will probably be short 1 contract by next week. I will also sell my other futures contracts(including 10 tons of soybeans and soybean meal and 5 tons of cotton), keeping 10 tons of wheat(long) and 5 tons of copper(short). On the $/pound chart, it appears it has climaxed at $4 after gapping up to close there strongly, and drifting down now(take a look at HANS or GRMN for an example of what happens to a stock when such a pattern occurs :D). The slowing housing market(housing construction H&S http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/industry/bigcharts-com/indchart.asp?bcind_ind=hom&bcind_sid=171546%2C+171546&bcind_o_symb=&bcind_period=5yr&bcind_compidx=aaaaa%3A0&bcind_comp=%2C+&bcind_compind=aaaaa%3A0&indchart.x=47&indchart.y=13) which will lead to a slowing economy in the US and internationally may lead to less usage of copper, causing the demand side to weaken.
Thus, my finger is on the short button, my order will probably be filled on Monday :).

Posted by: FirstConsul [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 19, 2006 8:37 AM [link]

down to 662 range, fallen through the 670 675 resistance, can it test the 645 support today? remember, it went up just as fast

Posted by: tgifbipo [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 19, 2006 8:57 AM [link]