So when I refer to the concept of timing, it has quite different meanings to different people.

Since I trade for a typical hold period of say three to 15 weeks, I both over-trade and under-trade from the perspective of many of my readers. And when I suggest that it's time to exit positions, you might say that a good 80 pct of my readers think I am too early.

But exiting positions is a matter of scaling out. I determine from technical indicators like RSI and MACD that there is a condition known as the Distribution Zone. This is my word for thinking that prices are high and likelier than not to revert to a trend mean, then surpass it on the downside (in the full amplitude of a cycle). At or near what I believe is a cycle bottom, I call that condition the Accumulation Zone.

All factors referred to as fundamental, quantitative, technical, and macro-economic, go into my analysis. Such is my discipline.

All of this is to say that nobody has perfect timing, but I believe mine is better than most.

It's also to say that there are times when I suffer the slings and arrows of others. When I was in the wealth management business and the selling business, those people used to be clients. Today, as a blogger, you are readers.

Nonetheless I like to be accurate in my timing. But just like I like to be precise in my written communications, I often miss the mark " and suffer for it.

I suffered greatly through the 4Q99 and 1Q00 too. I was too early for the day traders and swing traders, and many of these people thought I didn't really know my trading craft.

But then a huge bear market ensued, as I had forecasted for several months. So, in retrospect, I was not early for the majority of my readers. As a matter of fact, the majority of day traders are no longer around today because they failed to heed my advice at the time.

I have been thinking about this today because gold is up +$4.40, which after yesterday's loss still puts the bullion a couple bucks higher than the timing of my alert this past weekend. Gold futures (June contracts) are right now $684.50, and what I am saying is that I believe that before the expiry of those contracts, they will trade lower, and that if you hold those contracts to maturity, you will be a loser. Longer-term, say within a year, I believe gold will trade at between $725 and $850.

But in the interim, should my short-term forecast prove to be correct, if gold were to move to $690 or $695 for a couple days, would I be wrong? Would you think I was too early?

I suppose what I am saying here is that trading is not a game, it's a challenge to be right at the end of a contract, at the top and bottom of a cycle.

And the only way you are going to be a successful trader is if you approach trading as a portfolio management task, over a continuum of time, where you manage to keep your risk low and your cash-on-cash returns economic (i.e., returning more than the risk premium inherent in market prices, which for a 10-year U.S. Treasury Note is presently 5.13 pct).

Portfolio management is a business like any other. If you use good management practises, including common sense, and keep your emotions in check, and work hard at your business, you are likely to succeed.

There will be days when you question whether it's all worth it. That applies to traders just like restaurateurs, architects, business consultants or whatever. But if you have an unwavering conviction that you know your craft, you'll have the discipline to stick to it.

In the end you will be successful. And you won't care what other people think.