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May 11, 2006

Pigs fly at cycle tops, Thurs., May 11, 2006, 10:13 AM

There is one absolute in trading markets: at cycle tops, stock promotion is excessive and speculation is encouraged. And gold and pigs both go 'air'borne if you get my drift.

I happen to believe in stock promotion and speculation, but not when it gets excessive. That tells me we are late in a stock cycle, which is a point that the Little People ought to be taking extra precaution.

Overheard on last night's Cramer show at CNBC was a plug for Eurozinc (TSX and AMEX: EZM). A couple month's ago, the stock was a penny stock " about 100 pennies to be exact. I see Cramer took it to $3.00.



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Insiders in the stock promotion business have an expression for third-party touts. These people are doing what is called "Take-out". They represent the exit strategy for insiders who have held the stock since it was in the pennies " as in a couple pennies.

I'm not accusing CNBC or other major media companies of doing any of that although to be factual the SEC has made those accusations in a few cases I am aware of.

At CNBC there was the 2005 case of a commentator Courtney Smith who was charged but later apparently found not guilty. Then in 2004, it was Thom Calandra, chief commentator and co-founder at MarketWatch. I don't recall how that case worked out.

On the other side are media watchdogs, as listed in this article link.

So, if you suspect something untoward going on, and have some proof, please contact these reporters. It's the only way that you don't get fed "take-out".

Btw, here is a CramerWatch site you might find interesting. Note the webmaster's computation of Cramer's performance against the monkey.

I'm too busy to follow up to see if the data on that new website is approximately accurate (nothing's perfect), but what makes me happy is that the Little People are stepping up to monitor media personalities and even bloggers like me.


Btw, here's the EZM chart in Cdn Dollars, trading on the Toronto Exchange for the past five years. It tells a story quite different from the one from AMEX.

Take care not to get caught standing under a flying pig.


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Gold is on another spectacular run -- but please remember the story of the people trying to swim dangerous waters carrying gold bricks in each hand. June gold is up over $16. Oil is up +$1.50.

Dow is down -50 and the Naz down -10. So not everybody is trying to fly with pigs, gold and oil.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 11, 2006 10:13:35 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market

Discourse

Cramer vs. Leonard the Monkey!!!! I am LMAO!

And to top it off - Leonard is winning!

Posted by: DaveB [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 11, 2006 10:33 AM [link]

Took a speculative trade in EZM @ 2 months ago, had a plan and then sold all on Tuesday when the weekly, daily, hourly RSIs were in the 80's. I think that was the day you recommended all stay at their screens.

Now that Cramer recommends, I'm glad I'm out!

Thanks again for your insights Bill.

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 11, 2006 11:01 AM [link]

Bill, my 2006 predictions for a high of ~ 931$ USD per oz will turn out to be a bit conservative me thinks.


http://globalgold.blogspot.com/2006/04/gold-price-prediction-2006.html

http://globalgold.blogspot.com/2006/05/gold-oil-ratio-update.html

Posted by: real1 [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 11, 2006 1:45 PM [link]

Take a look at this chart for copper.

http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?%24copper

Copper pigs can fly?


Posted by: DollarBill [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 11, 2006 9:00 PM [link]