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May 15, 2006

Oil in rubles? TRF? Dow rally?, Mon., May 15, 2006, 4:02 PM

A reader suggested that maybe we should be looking at TRF for accumulation. I wrote in the WIR that the Russia equity market is a leading indicator of rising and falling markets elsewhere.

Bill, TRF is off 23% from highs reached 9 sessions ago. Down 9% today alone! The daily RSI is quickly approaching 30, and is in territory it's not seen in the past year. Might be prudent to keep an eye out. /doug11

I think it's best to stay away from the TRF until all those Templeton "buy and hold" investors decide they don't want to hold any longer.


Another reader wanted to know about the Putin announcement on May 11.

My answer was: "B", I'll write about it. I don't think much of the idea. An exchange is only as good as the liquidity. Traders are not trading NYMEX, CBOT, NYSE, Nasdaq, etc because they love the USD. They love the liquidity. Also they know the deal will get completed by the exchange regardless of contract size. /B

Finally, going into the close tonight, CNBC's Bartiromo was up to her former self. Why doesn't she just put on a college cheerleader outfit and join Cramer when he visits the Columbia campus?

"A major rally" she called it.

Isn't she a piece of work?

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 15, 2006 04:02:38 PM | Category: Cara Today in the Market

Discourse

Bill,

The circuit breakers saw no action today per your prognostication last Friday: "And you ain't even seen Monday yet! It could even be a blacked-out day, circuit breakers and all." Oh well.

Claire

Posted by: Claire [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 15, 2006 4:12 PM [link]

Last week I, a Mom and Pop type investor, started to read your web blog. Thank you for clear information and perspective from a non-broker standpoint - which means I do not have to second guess every word and motive. I have lots to learn and will just read for a while, but wanted to express my appreciation for your good work. Thank you.

Posted by: bbcmoney [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 15, 2006 4:20 PM [link]

Knife Catchers be carefull..

Even with the major US indexes closing higher today many have become worried and the rest of the week has some big econ reports coming out..

Also the underlying strengh was still not there today for anything more then a short term bounce imo.

Andy

Posted by: Andy [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 15, 2006 5:02 PM [link]

Bill,

As an avid reader of your blog for the past 4 months, I have picked up a ton of valuable information. Just wondering if you were going to compile a Cara 100 Garbage List - i.e the 100 most overvalued companies ripe for shorting. We may well be entering a bear market in the very near future ( if we haven't already) and shorting could possibly be a more fruitful option than going long. Thanks again for the wonderful blog.

Posted by: TheAdonis [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 15, 2006 8:39 PM [link]

Andy:

Last weeks knives became today's swords, and before I bloodied my scarred hands once more, I took yours and Bill's advise, and stood on the side lines (in most cases). Let the ‘weak hands' quickly rain on this ‘Pull Back', so we can pursue our financial goals.

Posted by: C.Note [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 15, 2006 9:45 PM [link]

C.Note

I to have learned not to try to catch knives. I hope you don't think the comment was directed at you specificaly it is my general feeling that people are taking larger than justified risks this soon after the start of some nasty pull backs. Also we are data dependant from this point on or so the fed says and different markets want different things. So large volitility can happen after PPI and CPI releases ,speaches, Maria's party talk.

Andrew

Posted by: Andy [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 16, 2006 1:23 AM [link]

Andrew:

No, I did not feel as though you had singled me out, although I've been there and done that toooo much lately.

After looking at what's left of my nest egg this morning, it will be necessary for me to sit down awhile and wait for Bill's and others here to provide marching signals as has been done for the ‘Pull Back' or I'll have no cash left to buy the bargains.

Your posting indicates an early riser or you never sleep:)

Posted by: C.Note [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 16, 2006 6:25 AM [link]

C.Note-

CCJ had a floor under it yesterday. Unless we see another pullback today in the PMs, I am expecting positive action. I am expecting a bounce as we had double bottom (gold) after the close. CCJ acts in concert with the miners. I don't know if you exited already.

But I am still wary of gold action. Copper smash is lurking out there. Hope this helps.

Mark

Posted by: MarkM [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 16, 2006 7:24 AM [link]

C.note

Different time zone. Vancouver B.C.. And I never Sleep...
Andrew

Posted by: Andy [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 16, 2006 10:26 AM [link]

MarkM:

It did help. Still have my position. Hope it was more than just a bounce that occured Tue.
Thanks for coming out of 'semi-retirement'. :)

Posted by: C.Note [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 17, 2006 5:52 AM [link]