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May 30, 2006

Novice metals investor wants to know the future? Tues., May 30, 2006, 9:23 AM

So check this out. I receive a letter from Gail headed, "NOVICE METALS INVESTOR WANTING TO KNOW IF GOLD CORRECTION OVER". But, don't we all?


Hello Bill, Found out about your website through a Google search. Impressed that you are "the best of the web". I see that you predicted the gold correction. I am wondering when will it be safe to reinvest? --Gail

Hi Gail,

Nobody knows with certainty what central banks are likely to do in the future, so we have to make our best guess. Mine is that gold has much upside, but will go through a series of rapid and severe, but brief, pullbacks. So the best strategy is to accumulate gold. The best tactics depend on how close you are to markets. If you follow markets by the hour, you will likely trade actively. If not, you pay the price whenever these significant pullbacks occur, but you will rest easier over the next several years.

So not knowing you, and not being registered to trade in your jurisdiction (or anywhere presently), I can't give specific advice. That's why I use my blogging time to educate, inform and facilitate. Regulators appreciate that.

Best,

/Bill


This morning the President stated he will appoint a new Secretary of the Treasury in his Administration, Goldman Sachs CEO Henry Paulson. The reason for that is because the international currency markets are out of whack, and international trade is being affected, a global agreement by G-20 Ministers of Finance and central bankers is required.

Paulson, as head of the world's most powerful investment bank, is expected to provide the leadership to bring about that agreement.

As I write, the President is giving his announcement speech for Paulson. Rather than waste your time reading the nuances of a Bernanke speech, I urge readers to read and re-read the President's speech.

The answers to what our problems are and where our future lies is in that speech.

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 30, 2006 09:23:41 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market

Discourse

OT

DELL (Cara Global 100)

05/24/06 DELL MICHAEL S Purchased 2.92 Mil $23.99 $70.04 Mil

8:07 (Dow Jones) First Albany thinks the Street's revenue expectations for
Dell's fiscal 2008 may be too optimistic, and the firm has some concerns about
DELL's aggressive pricing. Cuts the stock to neutral from buy. "The consensus
seems to imply that Dell's PC revenue growth will be significantly higher than
the projected industry growth rate, despite IT market's continuing shift toward
Dell's areas of weakness: mobility, emerging markets, and consumer," the firm
says. Also, aggressive pricing "might result at best in unprofitable growth,
and at worst in margin corrosion without the desired growth," First Albany
says. (JHS)

DELL
P:E 17.7 Ten Year Range 14.9-71
P:S 1.0 Ten Year Range 1.2-7
5 year sales growth 13%
5 Year income growth 18%

HPQ
P:E 30 Ten Year Range 19-33
P:S 1.0 Ten Year Range .68-1.86
5 year sales growth 5.6%
5 Year income growth NIL


Note I am a 'relative performance' manager, so my perspective is different. But I'll bet with Michael Dell ahead of the average analyst. This analyst JUST NOW is downgrading???

I am Long DELL at open.

From a trading perspective the short term down trend is taken out. The intermediate trend at $27-27.50 is near by resistance. If the NDX and SPX break down I doubt DELL is going higher, but if we get a more meaningful bounce prior to the break down then DELL is a stock to watch. JMHO

Posted by: stockman [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 30, 2006 9:47 AM [link]

Posted by: Andy [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 30, 2006 10:19 AM [link]

Problems? Future? [scratches head]

PRESIDENT BUSH: Secretary of the treasury has one of the most important jobs in the federal government. The treasury secretary is responsible for recommending and implementing policies dealing with taxes, financial markets, federal spending, trade and other issues affecting the health and competitiveness of the American economy.

The treasury secretary overseas the minting of U.S. currency, the management of public finances and the enforcement of important laws, including our efforts to crack down on terrorist financing.

The treasury secretary is the leading force on my economic team and the chief spokesman for my economic policies.
* * *
When he is confirmed by the Senate, Hank will build on John's fine work. He takes this new post at a hopeful time for American businesses and workers.

In the first quarter of 2006, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 5.3 percent; the fastest growth in two and a half years. We added 5.2 million new jobs since August of 2003. The national unemployment rate is down to 4.7 percent.

Productivity is high, and that's leading to higher wages and a higher standard of living for the American people. Hourly compensation grew at an annual rate of 5.7 percent in the first quarter this year.

The American economy is powerful, productive and prosperous, and I look forward to working with Hank Paulson to keep it that way. As treasury secretary, Hank will be my principal adviser on the broad range of domestic and international economic issues that affect the well-being of all Americans.

Hank shares my philosophy that the economy prospers whency, where he's promoted conservation, both at home and abroad.

As one of America's most prominent business executives, Hank has been a strong and consistent voice for corporate accountability. When the corporate scandals broke, Hank showed his leadership and character by calling for reforms that would strengthen the way American's public companies are governed and improve their accounting practices. And as treasury secretary, Hank will bring those high standards to one of the most important posts in Washington.

Posted by: Novalawyer [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 30, 2006 2:38 PM [link]

The market seems to have slumped a bit today. For instance IVN is down from 7.37 close of friday to 6.84 at about 3 p.m. for a loss of 7.19% for the day.
MU another advisor pick from 2-3 weeks back is down about 1.5% from close on friday.
But GLG is up 1.59% but peaked up at about 3.8% this morning.

Posted by: Quentusrex [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 30, 2006 3:03 PM [link]

Quentusrex

No surprise market was down today. Bill has repeatedly mentioned a pullback, bear market conditions. IVN probably affected by news-"Mongolian president lets windfall profits on mining companies tax stand"--as well as overall market downdraft.

Another 5% correction over this next month or two would not surprise me. Maybe some opportunities to nibble as RSIs fall. Good luck!

Long: positions on a weakening dollar.

Posted by: Seamus [TypeKey Profile Page] at May 30, 2006 7:58 PM [link]