Ivanhoe Mines is not in the Cara 100 for the simple reason there is no operating results to analyze. There are no metrics with which anybody can measure the performance of operating management.

In fact, if there were a Cara 500 or a Cara 1000, Ivanhoe (either Ivanhoe Mines or Ivanhoe Energy) would not be there.

But do I think traders ought to avoid IVN, or jump ship? No.

Do I think that IVN shareholders will make money? Yes, if they have a cost base in the US$6.30-$7.40 range, as I wrote nine or ten days ago.

Why the wide range? Simply because some traders are long-term holders and others are day traders.

If you happen to be committed to IVN through the bottom of the 2006 broad market cycle low, then, if your cost base is $7.40, you will be able to reduce that cost base in the short run, and in any event look forward the ultimate cycle peak for metals in say three years.

If you do have a cost base of say today's price of $6.99, then I believe the prospects of you having a double within three years are outstanding. I believe that because when I look at the total market capitalization of Ivanhoe (at US$6.99), which is about US$2.21 billion, I have full confidence in Robert Friedland's ability to sell the company to a major miner for say $4.42 billion (a double) or more.

Robert is the world's best promoter. And Ivanhoe Mines is the kind of thing he promotes better than anybody. Ultimately, there is at least US$4.42 billion value in the company's resource properties, and most of the major miners want it.

Day traders will make money over US$6.30, in my view, because that is the low price over the past year that Robert has been promoting this deal. In fact it is the low price since November 5, 2004.

Think back to the low gold and copper prices at that point, and what is happening today, and likely to unfold in the next several years. Even a shake-out in copper is likely to carry an average copper price above 4Q04 prices well into the future.

On April 25, less than a month ago, Ivanhoe closed on a bought deal financing of US$166 million. That money is in the bank and will take Robert through to the day he closes on the sale of this company to a major. So Robert is in control.

The bought deal @ $9.04 is 22.7 pct higher than today's price. If you wish, my $6.30 figure is a 30.3 pct discount to the price paid by some of the smartest, best informed, financiers in the world, on the basis of their best judgment exactly one month ago.

Do you really think these people did not know about politics in Mongolia, or the issues facing the metals futures markets? If you do, stop reading me, because you are on a planet where I can't help. The fact is that a financing of US$166 million for a very high risk venture, using very high future cash flow discount rates, places a significant confidence in the ultimate success of Ivanhoe Mines.

Robert Friedland, I repeatedly say, is the best stock promoter in the business. Somebody mentioned Vonage's Jeff Citron, the man who founded Datek and used to be a penny stock trader in NY-New Jersey, as being in Friedland's class. With great respect to Citron (in Feb-1998 I told a packed formal hearing of Canada's securities commission chairpersons to watch the success of this man), the guy is not in the same league.

Financial institution money managers, stockbrokers in all countries, publicity mills, journalists, followers of the Forbes' richest list, and so forth, all love this guy Friedland. Well they either love him or hate him; but they all have a healthy regard for his immense capabilities.

About two weeks ago, IVN was rated a consensus 1.7 on a scale of 5.0 by Wall Street analysts. With the metals futures market roiled and the political situation in Mongolia giving indications of excess profits taxes to natural resources companies there, the five Wall Street analysts covering IVN have dropped the consensus rating to 2.5. In other words, IVN is in the middle of the pack.

Volume in the stock has really pumped up in the past several days the stock has sold off. I'll watch volume closely for heavily promoted stocks because I'm watching to see when the promoter or his entourage are dumping.

Do I think Friedland would dump a few million shares within a couple days of closing a US$166 million financing? Not on his life. It didn't happen.

I could go on about this subject, but I care not to. I know Robert Friedland the person. I have confidence he is in control, and that he is a master promoter, and that the smartest financiers in the world think his Mongolian mining project is immensely valuable.

May 16, 2006: "I'm here to tell you that if you can buy IVN anywhere from $6.30 to $7.40, you will make money " probably a significant return."

I said that nine days ago after the stock hit the wall for the reasons explained. If I had fundamentally changed my mind, I would have told you so.

The fact is that Ivanhoe Mines is not in the Cara 100. It is not the kind of company that I could hold and sleep well with. I prefer the latter. But I know many of you are searching for special situations and speculations, so I gave you one. That's all, nothing more.

Don't expect me to get dragged into any deeper discussion on this.