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May 5, 2006

Is my world in order?, Fri., May 5, 2006, 9:45 AM

Somebody asked if my world is in order? Is my crystal ball still working? Well you tell me?

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I never said my crystal ball is 100-pct accurate, but, it's not bad.

I have said that it does seem to work best on sunny days, and when I just looked out to the west and then to the south, it seems to be that kind of day.

So, hang in for a few hours. The weather won't change, but the market just might.

Alan sent me a query as to what the world might be coming to. At least we get a peek into his world.




"Bill, are you sending a stock whisperer and a fly on the wall to report at the upcoming G-7 meeting. Or will you personally be there like George Soros in 1985 at the Plaza Hotel. He shorted the dollar immediately after the Plaza Accord agreement was signed and made the biggest chunk of his fortune.

I personally think that a plan to lower the US dollar will be put in place because a current account deficit that's over 7% of GDP and an external debt that is approaching 50% of GDP is unsustainable for the US, and the sooner plans to correct this take place, the better for the world. Maybe insiders are bidding the price of metals and oil up in advance of the meeting.

I read that in 4 years, 90% of the engineers in the world will be living in China and India. I am not talking about financial engineers, but those involved with building tangible things. Rents continue to go up even in areas of the US that have the highest foreclosure rate like Denver (less than .35% foreclosure rate) where my youngest daughter lives, and in NYC where my oldest daughter lives.

Low paying jobs and inflation are eating up the little people. Greenspan said that the key is education. Sorry, but it's not. The highly educated are losing their jobs to the well educated in China and India, and the uneducated with a skill where you have to "physically be there",ie, brick layer, barber, waitress, home repair man, are the only ones benefiting in the US "global economy". I personally think that in time this "global economy" will be looked upon as similar to the South Seas Bubble. /Alan"



I think G-7 action is inevitable, but not likely to happen unless and until China revalues their currency.

Food for thought, while I enjoy the view. Actually I'll save that food for tomorrow's Week in Review because today is just too nice to be working and thinking and forecasting... even if that crystal ball is my best tool on days like today. :-)

Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 5, 2006 09:45:05 AM | Category: Cara Today in the Market