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May 4, 2006
Is gold rise due to ABX de-hedging?, Thurs., May 4, 2006, 12:18 PM
A Dow Jones story, reported by MarketWatch, and Business Day, talks about the state of gold hedging in 1Q06, with notes that the biggest producer, and maybe the biggest hedger, Barrick Gold, has led the de-hedging movement.
I reviewed a Barrick EDGAR filing to see how this was accounted for on the balance sheet, but couldn't find it during a quick look. But the hedging business is important to understand, so I'd appreciate any expert sending me a note, or commenting here.
Cara 100 component: ABX
GICS 15 Barrick Gold Corp (ABX) (ABX) Financials
Barrick's Peter Munk will be interviewed tomorrow am by either ROBTV or Bloomberg TV (overheard on one of the monitors while working this morning).
On a personal note, Peter Munk was an entrepreneur who first tried his hand at a company called Clairtone. My Dad had one of those Clairtone stereo units " and I read that an idiot judge I know did as well.
I was the auditor of Clairtone. Actually I was a junior student-in-accounts who was the last one out the door of the bankrupt company. I locked it and gave the keys to the landlord. The second to final act was my cash purchase of their last stereo unit, which I gave to my late Dad for his Clairtone collection. I think the janitor got that $10 bill.
I admire Peter Munk because he was never a Forest Hill whiteshoe. He was the ultimate Dream Merchant with a twinkle in his eye " and a nose for money. When after a bit of revelry in the South Pacific, chasing resort properties, he returned to Canada where gold is king, and got into the gold business. Against all odds, because banker friends of the elite didn't care much to help him in the early stages, he went on to build a dynasty.
And the icing on the cake was Placer Dome. I once knew a lot about Placer Dome. It was a worthy prize for Peter Munk, and it was always a friend of bankers and friends in high places. Good on you, Peter.
Having said that, it might be an approprite time to write calls, or scale back on holdings of ABX. Unless bullion moves to a higher trading range, say above $700 here, I think the likelihood of a short-term pull-back is high. The significance is that such a pull-back could be extreme. I'd like to think that traders would be thinking ahead to when they can move back in.
Yes, gold may move to $1,000 or even much higher, but there will be highly volatile trading in the interim, and the point is you never know when the next one is the big one.
Posted by Posted by Bill Cara on May 4, 2006 12:18:02 PM | Category: Gold
Discourse
g034,
you are absolutely right. I'll write it up in a couple minutes.
And did anybody see Cramer touting NGX?
Folks, you are being set up.
Posted by: Bill Cara
at
May 4, 2006 3:56 PM [link]
Got home and found my shorts on NXG had been Cramered. If Bill's correct about a reversal on the "good news" in tomorrow's jobs report (which I suspect he is), I'm willing to bet both gold and silver will see a drop. Technically, they're both way overbought and the 60 minute charts, esp w/ RSI, look particularly bad.
Posted by: omphalos
at
May 4, 2006 4:29 PM [link]

I read one article on the dehedging story that made it sound like the dehedgers did a great job getting out of their shorts because they "anticipated" a price rise. Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't think they did a great job anticipating the bull market in the commodity that they mine. If they had, wouldn't they have been more aggressive a few years ago, rather than having to exit so many of their shorts in the $600's with 1/2 still on the books?
I'll take a CEO that refused to sell short over a hedging CEO. CEO's that sold short to secure financing may be sweating bullets right about now.
Posted by: g034
at
May 4, 2006 3:48 PM [link]